Daily Fantasy Sports
Sharp App
Season Long Fantasy
Free Month
Wall of Champions
Discord

The Sway Bar: Plays, Fades and Values for Coke Zero Sugar 400

I hate when qualifying is rained out at plate races. Alas, here we go. Look – it’s really hard to predict plate tracks. All we can do is talk strategy, and how different drivers fit into that. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.

A couple of notes that I always like to note on restrictior plate tracks:

Most importantly, the restrictor plates. On track, the cars have about the same horsepower – meaning they will be nose to tail all day. This means drivers who usually aren’t relevant get made relevant, and if there is a crash – it’s going to end the day of 3-15 drivers in an instant.

It’s very seldom that the optimal lineup maxes that salary cap. Whacky lineups galore.

I think the most important thing this week will be playing at least five differential plays. Drivers in the back have the benefit of more fast laps, since the cars infront of them are cutting the air for them.

Now regardless of what strategy you play this week – plate tracks have a DNF rate of around 20%. Meaning every driver in the field this Sunday will have a one in five chance of not completing all the laps. This makes just about any strategy volatile. With that in mind, understanding the correct optimal place differential strategy certainly gives us an edge.

Rather than give you top plays, fades, and values, I am going to give you my thoughts on each driver starting 25th or worse, and allow you to create a strategy with that in mind.  Bolded drivers are drivers I consider top plays. Keep in mind that other drivers starting better than 20th aren’t unplayable, especially this year.

25. Matt DiBenedetto – While DiBenedettos performances on plate tracks have been lackluster in 2019, it has become abundantly clear that he is very much ingrained in the Toyota family, and they will support him as such. He will likely run with the Gibbs cars, and we know that the Gibbs cars are always a threat. I think this is a good play.

26. Ryan Preece – An 8th at Daytona and a 3rd at Talladega – why wouldn’t we try to make it three optimal lineups in a row? An easy play.

27. David Ragan – David Ragan is actually pretty good at Daytona night races (and plate races in general). I am not sure I trust him enough to call him a top play, but I believe a healthy percentage of DR is good for you this week.

28. Michael McDowell – Another great play. McDowell is a stud at Daytona. This is one of the best plays of the week.

29. Bubba Wallace – Save for one outlier performance in the 2018 Daytona 500, Bubba has never really shown an ability to FINISH at plate tracks despite tremendous running ability. This is a true boom or bust play, and the stats say more bust then boom. Obviously you have to play him, but I am matching or slightly under on the field.

30. Corey LaJoie – Lajoie has two top 20s at plate tracks this year and I imagine he keeps that streak going this week. He has great finishing ability and should avoid trouble all night.

31. Matt Tifft – I’ll play a little Tifft this weekend, just because he starts 31st, but I don’t love this play. He has struggled not only on track, but on pit road as well. I think you can do better then loading up on Matt Tifft.

32. Quin Houff – This is a full fade for me. While Quin has a few ARCA starts at Daytona, this will be his first go round in a big car. It’s hard to perform your first go at Daytona, let alone in sub optimal equipment.

33. Landon Cassill – I think the ceiling for Cassill is like a 22nd, which is only +11 differential. I will play a little Cassill, but I am not going overboard.

34. Justin Haley – Jamie MacMurray ran this car to a 22nd in the Daytona 500. I don’t expect Justin Haley to be able to outperform that. I am going to be very light on Haley.

35. BJ McLeod – Fade.

36. Parker Kligerman – I imagine this will be one of the most chalky plays on the slate this weekend, and for good reason. Parker is a stud on plate tracks and always finds away inside the top 20. One of my favorite plays of the weekend.

37. JJ Yeley – Rick Ware Racing. Full Fade.

38. Ross Chastain – This is the Premium Motorsports #27 car that Casey Mears drove to a 40th place outing in Feburary. While I expect Ross Chastain can get a little more juice than that out of this car, the equipment gives me a bit of pause. This is a great play, just maybe not a top play.

39. Brendan Gaughan – Brendan Gaughan will drive around all night, keep the fenders clean, and then probably end up in the top 15 and the optimal. Best play on the slate.

40. Joey Gase – Rick Ware Racing. Full Fade.

So there it is folks, use that to start your research. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock, and thats what it will be all about this week. Strategy. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.