What’s up everyone?! Welcome to The Inside Line: Truck Series. Larkin8 here and this week we will be covering all the drivers participating in the Buckle Up Your Truck 225 NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series race at Kentucky on July 11th. If you have any other questions be sure to jump into the NASCAR Talk slack channel for assistance from our NASCAR coaches. You can follow me on Twitter @Larkin8
Quick Note
With the Truck Series we often end up with late driver and team news.
This info will be updated as it becomes available.
Brett Moffitt $11,900
Moffitt is starting to hit his stride and DK is going to make us pay for it. He is up $1,200 from last week and $2,200 from three races ago. Unfortunately this price hike is justified. We just have to make sure he is a legit dominator threat before locking him in this week.
Ross Chastain $11,400
Unlike Moffitt the price hike of Chastain was rather unwarranted. This team had a great run over the course of two weeks on shorter tracks where the driver plays a bigger role. For the most part though Chastain is a 10th place truck on these 1.5 mile tracks with him having the ability to steal a few more spots late in races. Including his fluke win at Kansas Chastain has 1 top 5 and 13 total laps led in the SEVEN 1.5 mile races. He is almost a fade based off those numbers.
Grant Enfinger $10,800
Enfinger is everything Chastain is not on this style of track having led 142 laps in the last four Truck races on 1.5 mile tracks. Enfinger has had trouble closing these races out but has offered 20+ dominator points in 4 of the last 6 races. He will likely be a top 5 truck all race with race winning and Dom potential again this week.
Johnny Sauter $10,400
Based on past performances this appears to be one of Sauter’s worst tracks. He has only 1 top 5 in the last 10 races at Kentucky. He has also gone five straight races without a top 10 in 2019. There doesn’t seem to be any momentum for Sauter and considering he has been a step behind all year on these 1.5 mile tracks I believe he is someone to potentially fade this week. Practice will be ultra important to determine if he is playable.
Stewart Friesen $10,000
Friesen is an easy play on any 1.5 track as he almost always scores double digit fast laps and often does some leading as well. He is coming into this week with 4 top 5s in his last 5 races. Friesen led 37 laps here last year en route to a 2nd place finish. One of the clear favorites
Matt Crafton $9,800
Crafton has finished top 10 in 11 of 12 races. He is as consistent as any driver in the field and makes an amazing cash play. However, he is rare close to a win and gets very few fast laps. He has 52 fast laps and 23 laps led on the year. Just not a real dominator threat. If he offers position differential by starting outside the top 10 he then becomes a really good stud option. Strong cash play, iffy GPP play.
Ben Rhodes $9,600
Won here last year and was one of the best trucks in 2017 before getting involved in a wreck. Rhodes is one of my favorite plays this week simply based on price. He is a threat for the win and if the bad luck stays away should easily finish inside the top 5.
Brandon Jones $9,400
Jones ran great last time out Leading 13 laps and scoring 26 fast laps. He will likely start deep in the field as he has seemingly struggled to figure out qualifying in the trucks. If this is the case yet again he is a great play for cash and gpps. If he qualifies inside the top 5 I would lean towards a fade. Overall Jones is not a very talented driver and he often throws away good finishes.
Todd Gilliland $9,200
I personally have been praising Todd in recent weeks and have been rewarded for doing so. He is coming off finishes of 2nd and 6th the last two races and comes back to a track where he finished 7th at last year. If he starts outside the top 10 he will be a great play. solid upper mid range play.
Austin Hill $9,000
Hill is great on these 1.5 mile tracks. With a clean race he is a lock for a top 10 and has a strong shot at a top 5 as well. Still at a great price for a guy with top 5 upside.
Harrison Burton $8,800
Harrison is in a similar situation to his teammate Gilliland. He has 3 top 5s in the last 4 races and things are seemingly starting to click. He is completely reliant on place diff. but I do believe he is a contender for another top 5 finish.
Jeb Burton $8,700
Jeb is horribly over priced. He is driving the #44 for Niece Motorsports. This is the same team that Spencer Davis drove for last race and cost $6,700. The team will likely finish just outside the top 10 but unless he starts deep in the field I can’t see Jeb paying off.
Sheldon Creed $8,500
If only Creed could control himself he would be a fantastic play every week. At this price he is a great play for gpps but he just isn’t worth the risk in cash. With a clean race he will finish inside the top 10 easily. Problem is he is just as likely to have a n accident of some sort. Very hit or miss.
Brennan Poole $8,300
Poole’s viability will be completely reliant on where he starts. Realistically he should finish somewhere between 8th and 13th. Really like him if he starts outside the top 15.
Tyler Ankrum $8,100
Ankrum is a bit of a mixed bag. As a young driver he is at risk of making a few mistakes. On the flip side he has shown legit speed and top 10 ability. At his price he is a steal with the only issue being that he qualifies really well. If we can get some place differential to go with his position upside he is one of the best plays on the slate.
Tyler Dippel $7,900
Dippel is a solid driver having a decent season. Problem is nothing stands out here DK wise and he often qualifies where he finishes. If he starts outside the top 20 he is a legit play. Otherwise, he really isn’t of much use.
Spencer Boyd $7,700
Spencer Boyd is one of the worst Draftking plays out there. He has shown almost no ability to run top 15 on his own and is quite frankly way too expensive based on what he delivers. Only playable when starting very deep in the field. Otherwise just play the likes of Cobb and Bilicki and use the extra salary elsewhere.
Austin Wayne Self $7,500
His upside seems to be about 13-15th position which is also not too far off where he starts. Hard to get him to pay off most weeks. He was running really well last race at Chicago before wrecking so maybe Self is going to turn the corner and put together some better runs. Until we know for sure it is better to play light.
Jordan Anderson $7,300
Anderson is extremely good at staying out of trouble and Scoring a 25-30 points on DK. The biggest issue is he almost always qualifies and finishes in roughly the same area. He has finished within 3 spots of his starting position in 10 of 12 races. Unless he qualifies very deep in the field he really doesn’t offer any upside at all.
Gus Dean $7,100
Dean has been one of the worst plays all year. He has broke 30 points only twice with a high of 36. He has averaged the 2nd worst total of drivers with more than 3 starts only behind the wreck machine of Natalie Decker. If he doesn’t start 20th or worse I don’t see the point of playing him.
Spencer Davis $6,900
Davis is racing this week for Rette Jones Racing. This is a one off deal with Davis’ K&N Series team fielding a truck. Not much expected performance wise and is likely someone you should look to avoid.
Dylan Lupton $6,800
Lupton is back in the #15 for DGR this week after a top 10 performance at Chicago. Dylan was able to accomplish this by staying out of trouble while several other top teams had issues. He is likely a 12th to 15th place finisher this week but with a couple issues can break into that top 10 again. At his price he is viable Of he starts anywhere outside the top 10 but it gets a lot riskier if he starts higher than that.
Jennifer Jo Cobb $6,600
Horrific qualifying results but finishing the race has led to a solid 27.3 points per race. If she starts beyond 28th she becomes a solid play in all formats. If she starts any higher her upside is limited and their are likely to be better plays behind her.
Natalie Decker $6,500
14th at Chicago shows exactly what Decker’s upside is. Problem is she is a ridiculous risk have wrecked in Roughly 70% of the races. She is so damn risky but at this price and top 15 upside can be good if she just doesn’t wreck.
Clay Greenfield $6,300
Greenfield is running his own truck this week. He runs a handful of races each year and usually runs right around the 20th position. He raced here at Kentucky starting and finishing in 21st. Really need him to qualify poorly for him to be useful in any format.
Tyler Hill $6,100
Hill is driving for his family team. Him and his brother Timmy have put together some solid races. I believe he has a solid shot at a top 20 finish. Solid play if he starts 25th or worse.
Codie Rohrbaugh $5,900
Codie has qualified way too high to make him viable. He is roughly a 20th place truck come race time. In his 3 races this year he has a -33 place differential. Really not much to like here.
Josh Bilicki $5,800
Bilicki has been the perfect punt play in both of his races this year. He has finishes of 18th and 19th and scored 33 DK points in both races. The key to this has been his starting positions of 25th and 27th. If he again qualifies that deep in the field he will certainly be a top play again. If he starts any higher than 23rd he is a much riskier play with limited upside.
Norm Benning $5,700
Unless it is a crash fest Benning won’t really have much value. He is the slowest truck on the track every week and is a risk of being parked by NASCAR like last race. He can score you a solid 20 points but there will be better plays in this area.
Ray Ciccarelli $5,500
Ciccarelli is a slightly better version of Benning. Not much upside without a crash filled race but Can get to the 25 point range. Play completely based off starting position. Anything higher than 28th and he is not worth much.
Chad Finley $5,400
Finley has solid speed and has an outside shot at a top 15. Reliability will be the biggest question here. He wrecked at Atlanta while running inside the top 15 and had a rear end issue his last race at Iowa. I have faith in his race speed but am still nervous with playing him. Hopefully he qualifies too high and he can be avoided.
Mason Massey $5,300
Massey is driving for Reamue Brothers Racing. He has ran a couple solid race with them this year. He can score 25-30 points if he starts far enough back and is a step above the likes of Benning and Ciccarelli. Outside shot at a top 20.
Camden Murphy $5,200
Start and park team. Fade
Joe Nemechek $5,100
Has been a Start and park team. They do have DAB Construction listed as a sponsor which could mean they got some funding to run the entire race. They did not have a sponsor listed for the previous three races when they were start and parking. We will need to get more info come race day to write this team off. If they are running the whole race Nemechek is a strong top 15 possibility. Hopefully he just qualifies really well and we can look elsewhere.
This will conclude this edition of The Inside Line: Truck Series. Please follow me on twitter @Larkin8 and make sure to join me in our NASCAR talk slack channel for more coverage.