Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We’re back at it with another run at Daytona, so as usual, our approach is wildly different than what we had these last few weeks. Let’s get to it!
As always, if you haven’t already, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it.
Daytona International Speedway
If you forgot, Daytona is one of the “plate” races (I know we’re not using plates anymore, but the idea is the same…expect a lot of nose-to-bumper racing today). That means chaos is lurking around every turn, and at any random point in the race we could see half of the field wiped out over something silly. With that in mind, I do not recommend playing cash games today, and I’m not really a fan of single entry GPP’s either. Quality is difficult to pinpoint here, as EVERYBODY is just as likely to get wrecked as the next guy, so quantity is how I prefer to attack these races.
Lineup construction/correlation
Given the nature of Daytona, there are really only two ways to go here; bottom heavy and/or stars & scrubs style of lineups. It’s pretty much a guarantee that there will be some random low-dollar drivers in the winning lineup, and there may or may not be a high-dollar one (some mid-ranged guys will show up too).
With that in mind, the first thing you should do is decide on if you want to try your hand with a dominator or not. It’s possible that one driver will lead 100+ laps here and finish high enough to be in the winning lineup (Blaney did it before), so don’t overlook that possibility today.
After that, the name of the game here is simple: load up on a bunch of drivers starting deeper in the field, and hope some of them survive the wrecks and finish a lot higher than they would anywhere else. If you’re wondering, that means yes, you can basically ignore salaries today. It’s entirely possible that the winning lineup uses no more than about $35,000 to $40,000 in salary. That’s a bit on the extreme end, but realistically, limiting yourself to about $44,000 to $48,000 is a good way to start. If you’re using all of your salary, you’re probably not building a winning lineup here!
Dominators
As far as I’m concerned there are four options here today; Logano, Keselowski, Kyle Busch, and Blaney….in that order.
I fully expect to see the Penske guys running up front all day, which gives Logano/Keselowski/Blaney a really good chance of leading most of the laps today. The question will be how those are distributed. I think Logano will get the most, though Keselowski could also lead a lot. Since they’re so expensive, you’ll have to choose between them, as there aren’t enough laps to go around to pay off both of their salaries.
The same can be said about Kyle Busch, so if you take him, you’ll want to fade Logano/Keselowski in that lineup. I don’t love his chances of dominating, since those guys will hook up at the start and push themselves to the front, but if you think they have a bad start, you may want to get some shares of Kyle Busch to hedge against them.
Blaney is cheap enough that he can be paired with any of those guys. You’re hoping both he and the primary dominator can lead about 50 laps each (or more).
The others aren’t very likely to dominate, so you could go light or just fade them. I like them in this order: Elliott, Bowman, Harvick/Truex, Hamlin, and then Kurt.
Studs
These guys are fairly weak today, and most are good for a fade, but there are a few I don’t mind. Johnson probably is my favorite, as he’s very experienced at these races and is good at avoiding chaos and sticking around until the end. Jones and then Bowyer are next, as they have a decent shot at a top-10, then the rest follow them (you could probably just fade Larson, Almiorla, and Suarez and be perfectly fine).
Value studs
Gaughan and Ragan are the main guys here today. They both have high floors and very high ceilings and have a good shot at being in the winning lineup today. I’m sure Gaughan will be chalky, so you can choose to eat the chalk or fade it and hope one of the random crashes wipes him out. If you’re looking for a big leverage move, there you go. Ragan might not be as popular but he’s right up there in terms of floor/ceiling, so don’t sleep on him!
Stenhouse, Menard, Austin, Newman, and McDowell are next in line and represent my other favorites in this price range. They’re not in any particular order because I love them all the same, and it’s hard to pick a favorite at Daytona. Just be sure to have plenty of exposure to them today, because they have a better chance of being in the winning lineup than most other drivers do today.
Buescher, DiBenedetto, and Byron are next. I don’t love them but they have plenty of upside here and are capable of a top-10 (or even a top-5), so be sure you have them as well.
Punts
Everybody here is in play, so mix and match them around with the DS and be sure not to go too heavy on any one driver unless you have a working crystal ball.
I don’t have any favorites here, as they’re all just as likely to finish 10th or 40th as the guy starting next to them, so you’ll just want to be sure and have a fairly wide net of exposure here today. Remember, they’re basically racing in a minefield today, and we could see anywhere from 5 to 20 drivers get taken out at a moment’s notice here, so you’ll want to construct your MME pool accordingly.
Stacks
There are only two I like today, and they’re pretty limited.
It’s Daytona, so Penske is in play here, but unfortunately we can’t stack the two big guns. Pick between Logano and Keselowski and complete the stack with Blaney.
Only stack Penske in lineups where you’re wanting to use a dominator. If you’re not wanting to go that route, then you don’t want to play these guys.
Hendrick is the other option, but again, we can’t really do a full stack here. Johnson is probably my favorite of the group, and I like him paired with any one of Elliott, Bowman, or Byron. I wanted to like them more but they’re all starting too high for me to feel confident in stacking three or four or them.
Pivots
For dominators, I like mixing around some of those guys, though I still think the best chance of a dominator-led lineup paying off is with Logano, Keselowski, Kyle Busch, or Blaney.
After that, everybody else is a pivot.
Closing thoughts
Not much more to say here. Remember that this is Daytona, things can get wild in a hurry, so play within your means and spread out your exposures. Favor MME over single entry, and avoid cash games like the plague today. Yes, I know, “somebody has to win them” but that’s not really the mentality you should have going into cash games. The edge here is having enough quantity to battle the chaotic variance that we’ll see, and that just isn’t on your side in cash games. Play smart, good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!