Hello! And welcome to a new article here at DFS Army where we will be exploring some new ground. My name is Steve, aka Mutt18 (@mutt_18 on Twitter) and I’m excited to be bringing this to all of our DFS Army VIP members! One of the biggest things that I’ve learned, especially in MLB, is that the underlying data doesn’t lie. What I’m going to be doing in this article is looking at players that have really good underlying data but maybe haven’t seen the positive results, which means only one thing…positive regression is coming their way. If we can identify those players before the rest of the DFS community, we can have a huge advantage on the field.
If you’re a DFS Army user then you’re familiar with the MLB Research Station and an item that I seem to see a lot of members overlook is the Trends tab. From this tab it gives you a lot of good information that can put us ahead of the curve compared to the rest of the DFS community. The main items I look at in particular are the Trending ISO, Trending wOBA, and Hard Contact %. Our Research Station breaks down all of those over the last 30, last 14, and last 7.
I’m a big component of stacking, and my favorite is using the 4-3-1 (4 players from one team, 3 from another team, and 1 one-off). This article is going to focus on helping you find those one-offs that can push you over the edge in those GPPs. As dabbingpuggle said in his article here, you can’t just let the Domination Station plug in your one offs for you, you need someone with upside and in a good matchup.
Now, let’s dig in! The first thing we look for is the Trends tab in the Research Station (red box in screenshot below), here’s what you’re looking for:
We’ve recently made a bunch of updates to the MLB Domination Station (including a completely unique to the industry Hybrid Scoring System), take a look at how to use all these new great tools, here!
Here’s how we fared yesterday:
Teoscar Hernandez (FD: 3 DK: 3) – No positive regression for Hernandez last night, it’s coming though, and I’m willing to go back to the well tonight.
Willie Calhoun (FD: 12.2 DK: 11) – No home runs for Calhoun last night, as he went 3-4 just with not many extra base hits.
Mitch Garver (FD: 0 DK: 0) – This was a miserable night for both offenses as it was very boring 2-1 game.
Carson Kelly (FD: 21.7 DK: 17) – Kelly saw some positive regression last night as he homered out of the 9 hole! He was a great value last night.
Jose Ramirez (FD: 0 DK: 0) – Verlander was absolutely dominant last night. Not much we can do about that as he absolutely ripped through the whole Indians lineup last night.
Now, let’s look at some options for tonight!
Paul DeJong (FD-$3,600 DK-$4,200) –
DeJong’s trending stats:
DeJong is jumping in the Trends tab, his ISO is up 24%, and he has a ridiculous ISO of .550 over the last 7. His Hard Contact percentage is also up 14% and his wOBA is also up 7% up to .442 over his last 7. Meanwhile, over his last 7 games he’s only hitting .250 with 6 hits, 3 of which were home runs that all came in one game. DeJong also gets a good matchup today against Kyle Hendricks, who throws fastballs 63.8% of the time and his second most used pitch is a changeup, which he throws 25.9% of the time. DeJong hits both those pitches extremely well, as he has an ISO of .274 off of fastballs and an ISO of .250 against changeups which are both at an elite level. Hendricks also struggles on the road as he his ERA is 4.91 on the road, compared to 1.89 at home. Another interesting item is that DeJong’s Hard BABIP is up 35% as well as shown here:
I think he’s really due for some positive regression here, as his BABIP over the last 7 is .167 but his hard contact is way up, which shows that he’s been really unlucky.
Stephen Vogt (FD-$2,600 DK-$4,400) –
Vogt is really jumping in the Trends tab, just take a look for yourself:
I think Vogt gets the start tonight, as Velasquez really struggles against left handed batters, as he is allowing a .346wOBA to lefties. His ISO is really popping out to me, as it is .625 over his last 7 and it is up 23% over the last two weeks. His Hard Contact Percentage has also been on the rise at an insane rate as well, as its up 24% over the last 2 weeks and he’s been making hard contact at an insane 86% rate over his last 7. Velasquez has been throwing fastballs at an insane 67.4% rate this year and Vogt has a .289 ISO against fastballs on the year. Vogt has had some success, but he only has 5 home runs on the year, and his launch angle is 23.4 degrees which means that he’s been a bit unlucky in the home run department. Lets check out his Hard BABIP as well:
It’s also up 21% which shows that he is hitting the ball with more authority. He’s a huge bargain on FanDuel.
Update: Vogt is not in the starting lineup, the Giants need to realize that Posey is past his prime. I’m rolling back to Willie Calhoun tonight in the 100 degree heat in Arlington as the ball should be flying out tonight.
Michael Brantley (FD-$4,100 DK-$5,100) –
Michael Brantley is another great one-off play as he is trending in all the right directions:
His ISO over his last 14 is .375 which is up 20% over that same time. His Hard Contact percentage is also up 16% over the last two weeks as well. His wOBA is also up 8% over the last two weeks, and he profiles well against Zach Plesac. Plesac throws fastballs 53% of the time, and Brantley has a .297 ISO against fastballs on the year. Plesac has also been flirting with disaster as he has a SIERA of 5.21 but an ERA of 3.10 which shows that he is due for some regression, and I can’t think of a better team to light him up than this Astros team that is now fully healthy. Let’s take a look at his Hard BABIP as well:
His BABIP over the last 7 games is also down to .250, which is well below his .325 BABIP over the past two years which shows that he has been a bit unlucky. Over his last 7 games, Brantley is only hitting .222 with 6 hits and only 1 home run which shows his actual stats aren’t lining up with his underlying numbers, which means he is due for some positive regression. He makes a great one-off play and as a part of an Astros stack.
Matt Wieters (FD-$2,600 DK-$3,500)-
Wieters has been crushing the ball lately, and he’s dirt cheap everywhere, let’s look at his numbers:
He should get the start tonight as he’s been crushing right handed pitchers to the tune of a .225 ISO. Kyle Hendricks also throws fastballs 63.8% of the time and Wieters has an ISO of .226 against fastballs. Normally I wouldn’t recommend two hitters from the same team, but Wieters comes at more of a discount and he’s projected to hit 6th, so if you can’t afford DeJong, Wieters is your guy. Hendricks has also been worse to left-handed batters as well, and I’ve already talked about his struggles on the road. As you can see his ISO is up 18.2% over the last 2 weeks and his Hard Contact percentage is up 9% as well, with him making hard contact 60% of the time over his last 7. Over the last 7 games he’s also only hitting .208 with 5 hits, but he has been showing some pop. Let’s look at his Hard BABIP as well:
This shows that he’s been making some solid contact, and his BABIP is only .222 which shows that he has been a bit unlucky as well. He should be due for some positive regression today as well.
UPDATES TO FOLLOW – I’ll be making updates to this article as well, showing the ownership projections once they become available to us! Keep an eye out for the ownership updates as they will be in BOLD!
Make sure to hit the Coaches Forums as well, as I’ll post some notes in there as well. Have a +EV day, Army!
