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DFS Golf: Chalk Donkey – WGC FedEx St. Jude – DFS Army

Two events left before the playoffs and we get it kicked off with the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational! 

My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year for DFS golf with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!

Shane Lowry got it done at the Open Championship at Royal Portrush in dominating fashion, leading after every single round. Tee to green he was incredible and the run he went on on the back 9 Saturday afternoon was fantastic. One of those rounds where you finish and go ‘what just happened’. That finish on Saturday where he birdied 15-17 en route to a ridiculous 8 under 63, won him the tournament as Sunday played very tricky with heavy winds and saw most players shoot well over par, including JB Holmes who went from T3 to T67 after shooting an 87 with a card that looks like one of mine on a bad day.

Lowry wasn’t the only guy who had a good day on Sunday though, DFS Army VIP ‘ccanelho’ took home a cool 100K!

He became the 20th 100k+ winner at DFS Army since 2015!!! An incredible run, an average of 4 100k plus winners a year!!!

A few weeks ago I posted a video breakdown of how I build GPP lineups here DFS Golf GPP Lineup Building Strategies, Check it out for some great insight into how I go about building lineups for MME! These next two weeks are great weeks to practice this strategy prior to the Open Championship!

Check out all of our PGA tools, the research station, articles, and coaches notes here!

—-> DFS Army PGA Content <—-

While this is a ‘new’ event as it replaces the WGC Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone CC in Akron Ohio, it is a course that has held a tournament every year since 1989. The talent descending on TPC Southwind this week will be nothing like they’ve seen though. The big difference will be that it’s a WGC event now, which means that it is a ‘no-cut’ event. Everyone will have a 6/6 heading into the weekend unless someone WD’s (and there is a risk of that). Being a WGC also changes a bit of how we approach GPP, especially when it comes to ownership.

Course Breakdown:

  • TPC Southwind: Memphis, TN
  • Par 70  7238
  • Greens: Bermuda
  • Fairways: Zoysia
  • Designer: Ron Prichard (in consultation with Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green)
  • No Cut Event  Only 64 Players

 

TPC Southwind has hosted the FedEx St. Jude Classic since 1989 in its traditional spot before the US Open, and now with the change in dates, it’ll take the spot of the Canadian Open after the Open Championship. Due to it being a WGC event now though, it’ll get a stud field including almost all of the top 50 every year.

Previous Winners: 

2018: Dustin Johnson -19

2017: Daniel Berger -10

2016: Daniel Berger -13

2015: Fabian Gomez -13

2014: Ben Crane – 10 

All of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings are teeing it up this week with the exception of Tiger Woods, Francesco Molinari, Rickie Fowler, and Bernd Wiesberger. It’s possible we see withdrawal or two before the tournament, with Shane Lowry being the most likely candidate coming off his spectacular win at the Open Championship.

As you can see, over the years the course has played about a half stroke over par, making it one of the more difficult stops on tour, and we have quite a few holes that have double bogey rates, showing that while there are birdies, there are holes you can make a mess of here. Most of the trouble is in the form of water or getting offline as the fairways here are fairly tight. Not only are the fairways tight though, but the green size is also well below average as well. Putting an absolute premium on ball-striking this week.

One thing, that puts the DFS Army VIP’s at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. Check out how that works here!

–>Domination Station PGA Tutorial <–

If you haven’t checked out my preview video, take a look here, definitely worth your time!

Overall, this is going to be a great week as almost all WGC’s are. Anytime we get the best of the best together to play in a tournament it’s a lot of fun. The key this week, outside of the statistical side, will be owned. Leveraging ownership is going to be huge this week and something we will cover as we go through the Chalk Donkeys later on.

Weather:

Perfect. Really I don’t have anything else to write. Mid 80’s. Light breeze. No rain. Conditions will be pristine.

Key Stats this Week:

In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the WGC Fed Ex St. Jude.

One thing to note, this is a no-cut event. All 63 players will play the weekend. That means that you can take some chances on guys who aren’t necessarily great ‘course fits’. Even if a guy doesn’t look like a great play statistically or a great course fit, he’s likely one of the top 50 players in the world if he’s teeing it up here. I’m much more willing to take a chance on a guy in a week like this, particularly if he’s projecting to be low owned.

Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and former DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?

Value Tab: 

The first thing I look at every week when I open up the  RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab is basically a formula that takes our projection for points this week x 1000/their salary. So essentially its points per 1k.

Man, that price on Webb Simpson! A bit of a mixed history here, but the guy hasn’t finished lower than 30th since the Valspar back in March! He’s an accurate driver of the golf ball, great iron player, and when his putter heats up he can run away with it. I love him this week.

Hideki Matsuyama’s excellent iron play should benefit him here and the way he’s priced makes a lot of sense to get him in your lineup. He’s done well in WGC over the years and I think this course sets up well for him. Patrick Reed was a guy I identified right away as a lower owned option in the 8K range who should be good here. His iron play has returned to form since the start of the year and even if he’s a bit off, he’s so sharp around the greens it shouldn’t matter.

Chez Reavie and Billy Horschel both have excellent course history here and priced such that they could be popular here, but with all of the studs priced in the 8k range I think this high 7K might go a bit overlooked.

Projected DK Score:

Projected DK Score (formerly Projected Course Score) is one of our best stats. This takes the current course into account. The FP/H averages by each hole type on the course are added up to create a raw per round FP scoring projection. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success.

If we had a bit more diversity in the pricing here, I would just say lock these ten guys in and go, but building your core plays out of this stat is, in my opinion, the best way to start building lineups each week. Clearly, DJ, JT, Rory, and Brooks are good plays this week, you don’t need this stat to tell you that, but the fact that Finau, Bryson, and JB Holmes are popping has me very interested in each of them.

I have some concerns about Tommy Fleetwood’s mental state coming off a really disappointing second-place finish at the Open Championship. He was absolutely devastated in his post-round interviews, and while he’s here, how motivated is he to play well? I hate trying to quantify guys’ mental state, but it seems like this is a big let down spot, particularly at that price.

JB Holmes, on the other hand, shot a million on Sunday and will likely be low owned. He’s been pretty good here over the years, the big question is, was last week an aberration? He’d missed a million cuts coming into the open. At this price though, I’m willing to take a shot or to in GPP.

Finally, it should be noted that Gary Woodland is on baby watch. All he has to do is hit a tee shot on Thursday and he takes home the last place paycheck if he WD’s. Something like 50K. That’ll buy a lot of diapers for the twins on the way. He’s a WD risk and someone I’ll avoid.

SG: Approach L25

As we’ve talked about with the small greens at TPC Southwind,  you need to have some great iron play to be successful here.

Weird. Henrik Stenson is the best iron player in the field? That only happens every single week. This is a really solid course for him, the only concern I have is if the irons are a bit off like they were in the last round of the Open (though I think the wind had something to do with that) his around the green game is pretty poor. Regardless though, I think this course sets up really well for him, particularly with the emphasis on longer irons.

I think Rory McIlroy is really motivated to come out and play well after an embarrassing MC at the course he holds the scoring record at. He’s expensive, but a discount off of a Koepka and DJ which I like. I’m likely getting right back on the horse here.

Sergio Garcia is a really interesting name for me this week. He’s going to be massively underowned even at that price. He made the cut at the Open, and he’s trending in the right direction over his last 10 rounds with all of the key categories. The water here concerns me a bit with him, but I can eat it at this price. When he gets it going he can score with the best of them.

Paul Casey is also coming in under-owned and is a really steady option.

Other key stats to consider: Fantasy Points Gained, Birdie or Better %,  Double Bogey Avoidance,  SG: Long Par 4, Driving Accuracy %

One thing, that puts us at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. If you aren’t using it to build lineups you’re crazy! Check out how it works here! Domination Station PGA Tutorial

What is a Chalk Donkey?

First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’.  Let’s look at each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)

Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.

 9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.

8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.

Below 7.5K: >10%  Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.

One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them. 

 

Our Domination Station Optimizer is ALWAYS improving and recently it went through a big update.

Check out our fearless leader Geek breaking down how to use it for PGA!

 

Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?

In this section, each price range’s (Above 9K, 7.5k-9K, and Below 7.5K) Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.

It’s important to remember that just because someone is going to be highly owned, doesn’t mean that they are a bad play, but if we can gain an advantage on the field by fading a player owned by 25% or more, typically that’s the right move. There are typically 156 golfers in an event and only 70 and ties make the cut. Essentially you have to look at the ownership of a player and decide if the odds of him missing the cut are equal to or greater than the ownership. If that’s the case then a fade is typically the right play.

In a no-cut event, it takes on a little bit of a different spin. A chalky player at the top of the salary scale you have to ask yourself a few questions. Say he’s going to be 25% owned. “Is he going to win?” and “are the odds of him winning better than 1 in 4, equal to, or less?” If it’s less then I think a fade is in order. The same conversation can be had with chalk at the lower salary range. Will he be in the top half of the field? Will he be in the top 20? Etc.

And now, here my friends, are this weeks’ Chalk Donkeys:

Above 9K Chalk

Justin Thomas: DK $10,700/FD $11,100

Projected GPP ownership: 20%-23%

JT not only got a big price bump this week but with it, he will see his ownership increase as well. Apparently, all it takes is one decent week and everyone is back on him.

Prior to JT hurting his wrist at the Honda Classic, he was striking the ball at just a ridiculous rate in terms of SG: Approach and he was continually solid off the tee. After the injury that went away and he really struggled. If we look back at his strokes gained individual logs for the last twenty rounds, you can see that there’s lots of red numbers as recently as 11 weeks ago with his irons. That has started to change though and he’s showing some great consistency and starting to approach that level he was at around the Genesis where he finished second. We don’t have SG data from last week at the Open, but he hit 66% of his greens in regulation, top 15 in the field, which tells me he’s still rolling with an iron in his hand.

This course is going to require someone to be excellent off the tee and be even better with their approach shots. That’s JT.

The ownership is concerning. I’ve made the case earlier that it’s important to fade high ownership when you can here. JT is likely to be twice as high owned as Jon Rahm and Tommy Fleetwood who are priced similarly. Is he twice as likely to win this event as either of them? Vegas doesn’t seem to think so, in fact, Rahm has shorter odds to win. I don’t love playing a guy at this ownership because we don’t get any real leverage on the field unless we smash them. So…I guess I’m smashing JT this week. I really do think he sets up so well here that I’m willing to eat the chalk and differentiate elsewhere. I’ll have builds with guys like Rahm that give me some leverage there, but I think that playing JT around the 40% mark is the way to go this week.

Above 9K Pivot: 

Matt Kuchar: DK $9,000/FD $10,000

Projected GPP Ownership: 8%-11%

There’s not a ton of low owned players above 9K with the soft pricing, but projecting as one of the three lowest is Matt Kuchar. It’s crazy because he’s chalk every week, is it possible that he’s lower owned this week? I think with the emphasis being placed in the top of this range, and is priced near favorites like Bryson DeChambeau Kuch gets a bit forgotten about and comes in around 8%-11% owned.

I think Kuchar really fits the bill for what we’re looking for this week. He’s not short off the tee, and he’s very accurate. He hits tons of greens, makes birdies, and he avoids big numbers like the plague. He is so good with his long irons and it shows in his scoring stats on the long par 3’s and long par 4’s. Over his last ten WGC events, Kuch ranks 7th in Avg. DK Score.

It’s entirely possible that people are projecting him low owned and then jump on him trying to leverage it, but even so, I can’t see him being much higher than 15% owned. I’ll have close to 30% in GPP and if he comes in at that 10% mark and I have 3x the field, I’ll be extremely happy.

Other highly owned players (over 15%): Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele 

7.5K – 9K Chalk

Billy Horschel: DK $7500/FD $9000

Projected GPP Ownership: 19%-22%

It’s pretty rare for a guy at the bottom of this salary range to become the chalk, but here we are with Billy Horschel chalk week. He’s a guy I identified early in my research that I liked, but I didn’t expect him to be this high owned. Not only is he going to be highly owned, he got a big bump in price this week even after missing the cut at the Open Championship due to his course history here.

Statistically, Billy is just kind of ho-hum here. He’s been a little bit better recently tee to green and when he gets the putter he’s so solid. He also does a nice job of avoiding big numbers. He doesn’t project as a great scorer on this course though.

My plan with Billy this week is that I’ll have almost a full fade in GPP (2-3% just in case) and he’s currently in my cash lineup. I also have an outright bet on him so I’m hedged there. I just can’t play anyone but the studs at high ownership at an event like this when everyone else in this range is just as good if not better. You have to see past the course history here and focus on the fact everyone in this range is as good if not better long term golfer than Billy.

7.5K – 9K Pivot:

Matt Wallace: DK $7700/FD $9000

Projected GPP Ownership: 2%-4%

What if I told you that there was a guy who has a third place finish and a top 15 at majors this year, along with two runner ups and only three missed cuts. Sounds like a pretty good player right? What if I told you he was also going to be super low single-digit owned in a strong field (of which he’s excelled). Welp that’s Matt Wallace this week.

To be honest, I could care less about the stats in an event like this with a player of that ownership, but the reality is that he actually rates out pretty well. The one concern is that he’s got some issues finding fairways, but I think he can overcome that this week by clubbing down.

The fact is I’m guaranteed four rounds from a guy unless he WD’s so if he’s projecting to be super low owned and has somewhat of pulse, let alone a resume like Wallace’s, I’ll plug in at minimum 15% and move on. That’s leveraging ownership my friends.

Other highly owned players (over 12%): Webb Simpson, Hideki Matsuyama, Bryson DeChambeau

Below 7.5K

With this being an extremely strong WGC field, we actually have some players down here that are gaining some buzz. Keegan Bradley, Corey Conners, Max Homa, and Ketih Mitchell are all projecting above 12% owned. In a field like this, I think just fading all four of them is probably the play but I love me some Killa Keith this week so I’ll have some of him, but the rest will likely be a fade for me in GPP at that sort of ownership. There are 30 other players priced below 7.5K that are as good if not better than these four. I’ll take my chances there. Let’s look at some lesser-known golfers in this range that are sneaky GPP plays.

Alexander Noren: DK $7300/FD $8400

Alex Noren had a great week at the Open Championship, popping on day one and finishing 11th overall. He’s been struggling to find his game this year seeing his OWGR fall 25 spots since the start of the year to number 44, but it appears he found something last week. His irons have been off, but have started to come around a bit. He’s been steady since his missed cut at the US Open and I think this course should suit his eye. He hit 66% of greens at the Open Championship which is a really positive sign for Noren. Love punting him in gpp this week because of how high his upside is.

Nate Lashley: DK $6500/FD $7600

Lashley gets into the event due to him winning the Rocket Mortgage Classic a few weeks ago, and were this one of the other WGC events I wouldn’t think twice about playing him, but with the 7 long par 4’s here and the course, in general, requiring a solid approach game, Lashley makes a ton of sense. He actually rates out as 14th in projected DK Score. I think he can contend and the run he went on at the end of rd 2 at the Open gives me some confidence in his scoring ability.

GPP Core:

Want to know who is my GPP Core? How bout Taco or Brody’s? Check it out here on our brand new Coaches Notes page!

Final Thoughts: 

This is a fun event, and the perfect event to practice some game theory on. Fade the chalk unless you absolutely love it and get a little funky. Everyone is guaranteed four rounds, and everyone, for the most part, is the best in the world. The real edge this week is playing that ownership game.

Be smart with your bankroll this week, funky stuff sometimes happens in these no-cut events.

Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!