A PGA Tour event in my backyard? Yes Please! The 3M Open takes place this week at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, MN.
My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year for DFS golf with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information Gthan you could ever need!
For the first time in DFS Golf history, the winner of an event wasn’t available to be played in four day classic contests. Nate Lashley was a late addition to the player pool when David Berganio pulled out on Wednesday and Draftkings didn’t get him in. He absolutely ran away with the tournament winning by a ridiculous 6 strokes at -25 over another late addition (who did get into the pool) Doc Redman. It’s been a long emotional road for Lashley after losing both his parents and girlfriend in a plane crash in college (heading home after they watched him play in a golf tournament) and I’m stoked to see him win.
It was a crazy birdie fest at Detroit Golf Club last week, but some of the big names really struggled with Dustin Johnson and Gary Woodland both missing the cut while relative no namers like Lashley, Redman, and Sepp Straka tore the course apart and I think we see more of the same this week at the 3M Open in Minnesota.
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A few weeks ago I posted a video breakdown of how I build GPP lineups here DFS Golf GPP Lineup Building Strategies, Check it out for some great insight into how I go about building lineups for MME! These next two weeks are great weeks to practice this strategy prior to the Open Championship!
Course Breakdown:
The 3M Open takes place this week at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. It has hosted the 3M Championship since 2001 for the Champions Tour and this will be its first year hosting the PGA Tour. It is an Arnold Palmer design, and he was assisted in it by native Minnesotan Tom Lehman.
The course will play as a par 71 at roughly 7468 yards depending on the day. They have added some deeper tee boxes to the course to allow it to play longer than the 7100 it played for the Senior Tour. The greens and fairways are bentgrass while the rough is a standard Kentucky bluegrass which we see quite a bit in the midwest. It’ll be a bit of a change for players to get bentgrass after weeks on poa annua.
The Seniors played this course for the last 17 years and have continually crushed it. The lowest scoring average here in the last ten years has been -.9 and its been all the way to -2.59. Winning scores have been: -21, -20, -19, -18, -23, -17 the last few years. Kenny Perry has won here three times in that span. What do we know about Kenny? He bombs it. He doesn’t hit a ton of fairways. His irons are solid. and he makes a ton of birdies. I think that’s exactly the type of player we want to find for this week.
As you can see above from last years 3M Championship where the Seniors played, it’s a birdie fest. It almost always ranks as one of the easiest courses the Champions tour plays each year. The big change other than the lengthening will be hole number 3 playing as a par 4 instead of a par 5, but it still won’t be very difficult as it will only be at 500 yards. Only three par 5’s and they will play over 590 yards and two have some water in play. The 18th is a par 5 and will be an exciting hole to watch players finish on, and in fact, the tournament may come down to someone making an eagle there on Sunday.
The fairways are wide. Like REALLY wide. Some of the landing zones off the tee are 70 yards but on average it’s still 30-40 yards which are wider than tour average. They may have sneakily grown in some of the rough here but for the most part there its grip it and rip. Not only will the fairways be easy to hit, but some of the cross bunkering or rough in the run out areas will also be taken out of play completely due to the heavy amount of precipitation the Twin Cities has seen over the last few days (and will continue to see until the start of the tournament). The course is going to be wet, and players won’t get much run off their ball, which is another benefit for the longer hitters.
Not only are the fairways large, but the greens are also as they are some of the biggest they will play all year. And they are flat. This is Minnesota we don’t have many undulations to begin with but they are easy to read and we should see some guys drop some bombs.
The one thing this course does have a lot of is water (land of 10000 lakes!) and there are some definite forced carries and greens that are protected by water. Water is in play on 14 holes and we are going to see guys whose iron play is off, plunk them in the water and make a few big numbers. The water also comes into play off the tee, with it being a factor in tee shots on 6 holes. Players may actually club down a bit and if that’s the case they will have some longer iron shots into tees. That combined with three of the four par 3 plays playing over 200 yards makes me really want to target players who score on those long par 3’s in our research station.
Some of the greens are heavily bunkered but it’s nothing crazy. We won’t see a lot of guys in the fairway bunkers unless they mess with the tee boxes.
There is rain in the forecast all week and its the midwest in the summertime. I would bet we have to start and stop a few times here this week with storms rolling through. If it does rain, we could see some soggy greens that you can just fire at pins.
I think guys are going to tear this course apart, similar to last week, maybe even more so than Detroit. If the wind picks up or plays a role maybe we see like a -19 but I think this could easily get -22.
Weather:
A pretty typical July forecast for Minnesota. Hot, humid, and essentially a chance for a pop-up storm each day.
The hope of the course designers and the PGA is that we would get some wind this week to help keep scores down, but it doesn’t look the case. Gusts likely won’t even be over 10 MPH this week, making this course much easier to play than intended.
Key Stats this Week:
In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities.
Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and former DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?
Value Tab:
The first thing I look at every week when I open up the RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab is basically a formula that takes our projection for points this week x 1000/their salary. So essentially its points per 1k.
Wooo I love opening up the RS and seeing a bunch of 7K Value popping! Makes lineup building MUCH easier.
Off the top, we don’t have to a ton of sample size on Doc Redman but he obviously played fantastic last week and I think sets up pretty well here as well. He’s seen some drift in his odds so guys are putting money on him in Vegas, and not only that but he has an implied 15% chance of finishing in the top 20 which is one of the best in this range.
I was blown away with this Max Homa price. The guy has been crushing it lately and actually got a drop in price in this field after a solid 42nd place finish. I think he’s a cash lock this week at 7K and is definitely worth playing in GPP as well.
Back to back top 20’s for Wyndham Clark and he’s only $7100?! Yep. The kid can play, he’s long, and when the putter gets going he can rack up the birdies in a hurry.
Nick Taylor has been a steady option all year but Peter Malnati is maybe one of my favorite plays this week. He rates out really well here and has four straight top 30 finishes. The issue for Peter most weeks is that he can’t find the fairway and has to try to get it close from the rough (which he does), but with the wide fairways he should have no problem firing at pins.
Projected DK Score:
Projected DK Score (formerly Projected Course Score) is one of our best stats. This takes the current course into account. The FP/H averages by each hole type on the course are added up to create a raw per round FP scoring projection. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success.
No surprise that the most expensive player in the field shows up here. Brooks Koepka is the class of the field, but that 11.9 price tag can really hamstring the rest of your build. The issue is that people might actually fade him here following the DJ bust last week and the narrative that Brooks can’t win/doesn’t care about non-majors. Perfect time to jump on.
Bryson Dechambeau is likely to be the most popular player in the field this week but he’s a great fit here and if I didn’t like Hideki Matsuyama so much he’d be the guy I would go all in on this week. I’ll still have some shares but probably not as much as I should.
Even coming off multiple missed cuts in a row, Tony Finau is projecting be fairly popular. He’s a good course fit and the wide fairways should benefit him here. He smashes par 4’s and long par 5’s and looks to be a great course fit.
Shawn Stefani is projecting as a solid play this week based on his par 5 prowess. He’s been fairly consistent this year and at $6600 is an interesting play. His irons have been great and if he can get his putter to cooperate he could find himself in the top twenty.
Cam Champ started hot last week and then fell apart later in the week and as such got a big price bump but man he can score when he’s on. And finally, Seth Reeves is a sneaky play this week. The guy absolutely BOMBS it, averaging 313 yards off the tee. He scores well and is a decent putter. Should be able to have lots of wedges into these greens. At $6300 you can do a lot worse for a punt.
SG: Approach L25
As we’ve talked about, earlier, the only real defense this course has is the water. It won’t really be in play as much off the tee, but a lot of these greens are protected by water or bunkers, so approach will be huge here.
Kevin Streelman has been just smashing his irons lately. Last week he struggled a bit at higher ownership and still saw his price jump up a bit. I think he’s a really solid cash play this week, but I think worth fading in GPP at his ownership.
Shawn Stefani shows up, here again, reinforcing my idea that he’s an interesting gpp play. Keegan Bradley has had some of the best irons on the planet this year and while they are starting to cool off a bit, I think this course sets up really well for him.
Hideki Matsuyama and Brooks Koepka pop as they should as arguably the two most skilled golfers in the field. And finally, Talor Gooch and Cameron Tringale are two cheaper options who are great with their irons and can also score like crazy when they get hot.
Birdies or Better Gained;
Scoring will be massive this week and how do we score? Birdies and Eagles. This stat looks at who does that the best, relative to the field.
A couple of these guys, Doc Redman, Collin Morikawa, and Viktor Hovland have some really small sample sizes but have all shown they can score in these birdie fests.
After seeing a pretty big price jump, Rory Sabbatini will likely be less popular than he should be this week. He’s been playing some excellent golf, is a good course fit, and I really think that salary is somewhat irrelevant here in this type of field. Rory’s a good play, don’t have sticker shock because he ‘shouldn’t’ be priced there.
Peter Malnati and Sungjae Im have been playing some great golf lately and scoring to boot. I think that they are both GPP/Cash Viable.
And finally, Max Homa again who is in my eyes, a cash lock here at this price.
Other key stats to consider: Fantasy Points Gained, Double Bogey Avoidance, SG: Long Par 5, SG: Par 4 Field Rank Weak Field %
One thing, that puts us at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. If you aren’t using it to build lineups you’re crazy! Check out how it works here! Domination Station PGA Tutorial
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them.
Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?
In this section, each price range’s (Above 9K, 7.5k-9K, and Below 7.5K) Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.
It’s important to remember that just because someone is going to be highly owned, doesn’t mean that they are a bad play, but if we can gain an advantage on the field by fading a player owned by 25% or more, typically that’s the right move. There are typically 156 golfers in an event and only 70 and ties make the cut. Essentially you have to look at the ownership of a player and decide if the odds of him missing the cut are equal to or greater than the ownership. If that’s the case then a fade is typically the right play.
In a no-cut event, it takes on a little bit of a different spin. A chalky player at the top of the salary scale you have to ask yourself a few questions. Say he’s going to be 25% owned. “Is he going to win?” and “are the odds of him winning better than 1 in 4, equal to, or less?” If it’s less then I think a fade is in order. The same conversation can be had with chalk at the lower salary range. Will he be in the top half of the field? Will he be in the top 20? Etc.
And now, here my friends, are this weeks’ Chalk Donkeys:
Above 9K Chalk
Brooks Koepka: DK $11,900/FD $12,800
Projected GPP ownership: 19%-22%
Currently, I see Koepka coming in anywhere from 19%-22% but I’m actually of the opinion that he comes in a bit lower with everyone following the narrative that ‘He only wins majors’ and ‘doesn’t care about these events’. That’s also going to be reinforced by his 57th place finish at the Travelers and that DJ missed the cut last week in a similar spot.
Seeing beyond recency bias and looking past narratives is an extremely important part of DFS in any sport, but particularly in golf. Let’s look at how Brooks rates out for this course.
He’s the number one ranked golfer in our projected score, but also number one in the world. He’s in the top five of scoring on 11 of the 18 holes. This is an absolute smash spot for him. The salary hamstrings you just a bit, but I think you can make it work with some of the value available. Get the bias out of your head, and play Brooks this week.
Above 9K Pivot:
Rory Sabbatini: DK $9,500/FD $10,000
Projected GPP Ownership: 5%-8%
At the highest price of his entire career, Rory Sabbatini comes into this event with the best form of his career. Check out his recent form.
Five top 20’s and three top 10’s in his last seven events on a variety of courses. The guy is on fire. He also ranks out as the tenth best-projected fantasy points per round. He crushes par 5’s and is great with his long irons. Recently, the putter has improved and that’s what’s been fueling this renaissance, and now he’s returning to bentgrass which is his best surface.
I think people have a bit of sticker shock this week with Rory and that’s driving down his ownership. Again, don’t let bias get in the way of good decisions. Rory is in a smash spot this week and I think he’s knocking on the door of a win.
Other highly owned players (over 15%): Bryson Dechambeau (likely the chalk), Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Reed, Joaquin Niemann, Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland, Jason Day
7.5K – 9K Chalk
Kevin Streelman: DK $8900/FD $9800
Projected GPP Ownership: 17%-20%
Streelman gets a bump in price this week despite only a so-so performance at the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he finished 35th. Streels has been crushing his irons, but actually doesn’t rate out very well for us this week.
He’s 76th in the projected round score and actually all the way down to 92nd in projected DK Points per round. He struggles to score on these longer par 5’s which is where I think you really need to make hay this week. He just isn’t a great scorer.
I don’t think he’s going to miss the cut here, he’s been too consistent for that and as such makes a pretty solid cash play (if you don’t play my boy Sungjae) but at this sort of ownership in gpp’s and our projections, I think he’s an easy fade.
7.5K – 9K Pivot:
Keegan Bradley: DK $8800/FD $9800
Projected GPP Ownership: 7%-10%
Look, Keegan’s not going to have the sort of putting performance he had a few weeks ago at the Travelers’ (even though bent is his best surface). But with his iron prowess and ability to rack up the birdies I think he makes an excellent play here.
Keegan crushes par 4’s, and is a solid par 5 player. He’s great with his irons, but really good with his long irons, meaning that he should be able to take advantage of these par 5’s and get on the green in two.
He can make some big numbers which is concerning, but his skill set should really benefit him at this course. Long off the tee, great with the irons, and easy to read, true rolling greens will make putting easier for him. There’s always the risk that he could end up going full Keegan, but I’m willing to take that on this week at a course that I think he should be able to tear apart especially at this reduced ownership. At the end of the day you need to ask yourself, who has a better chance to win in a projected birdie fest…Streels or Keegs? I’ll back Keegan there all day.
Other highly owned players (over 12%): Kevin Streelman, Cameron Tringale, Charles Howell III, Nate Lashley
Check out my Course Preview Article for my full betting card!
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Below 7.5K
Not surprisingly given the lack of pedigree below 7.5K this week there is no player who is looking like massive chalk. The ownership appears to be pretty spread out with most players around 3%-4% owned. The one guy generating quite a bit of buzz is Max Homa at a ridiculous price and you already know that I think he’s a cash lock. Sepp Straka is gaining buzz within the DFS Community but likely won’t be over 6-7% owned. Here are a few lower owned players I’m interested in this week.
Keith Mitchell: DK $7400/FD $8700
Keith has missed two straights cuts and has MC’s in three of his last four. The reality is though, this stretch of golf on poa annua greens with tight fairways never really set up well for him. He lost a whopping 3.5 strokes lost with the putter at Detroit Golf Club last week which caused him to miss the cut. A return to bentgrass, especially some that run as true as these will this week will be a welcome reprieve for Mitchell. He gets wide fairways where he should benefit him as he’s extremely long off the tee, but not very accurate. If this course plays out to benefit the bombers, Keith will be right in the mix.
Robert Garrigus: DK $6400/FD $7000
A min priced flyer for me this week will be ol’ Bobby Garrigus making his first start back on the tour after being suspended for using Marijuana. Garrigus has had two tune-up events to get ready for this week a missed cut and a t20 last week on the Korn Ferry Tour. Garrigus is your quintessential bomber but his irons are pretty solid too. Not a great putter, but bent is his best surface. I don’t like following narratives but he’s rattled at the tour for suspending him and will be looking to get some payback (and collect a check) this week.
Wyndham Clark: DK $7100/FD $8300
I love me some Wyndham Clark this week. He rates out really well, is a great putter, bombs it, and is coming in off back to back top 20’s. He may end up getting popular but he’s my favorite play under 7.5k and is a steal on FD at that price.
GPP Core:
Want to know who is my GPP Core? How bout Taco or Brody’s? Check it out here on our brand new Coaches Notes page!
Final Thoughts:
This is a fun week, at a brand new track and while the field isn’t great I think that actually puts us at an advantage. Make sure to be in the coaching channels Wednesday night to get our final thoughts!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!