Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here is the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version should be ready by around 4:00 pm central time.
A look at pitchers
We’ll start off with the more interesting score here, as Maeda leads the way today with his 2.15 carnage rating and 545 KSCORE. He is pitching at Coors though, so it’s still risky, so I’d lean GPP only there. Still, there could be something there, and if you can get those sort of numbers with low ownership, why not take a few shots?
In a similar boat is Ynoa, who makes an interesting GPP punt. Again, keep him away from your cash lineups, but with how the Padres have been lately, I could see it working out if he can give us 4-5 innings and about 15-20 DKFP. I wouldn’t go here on FanDuel though, so if you want to take a shot with him, do it on DraftKings as an SP2.
Our more “normal” pitchers would be Corbin, Paddack, Sonny Gray, Smith, Keller, Kelly, and Barria. I’d probably rank them in that order for GPP purposes. For cash games, it’s looking like Corbin and Paddack are the top options, with Sonny and Keller up next for SP2 options.
As always, keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see where we’re all leaning after we’ve had a chance to dig in more!
Offenses to target
It’s a Coors slate, so let’s just get the obvious one out of the way. You can certainly eat the chalk and stack the Dodgers and/or Rockies here, as most people will do, and you don’t really need me to tell you to do that. Rather, let’s look at some of the other offenses in play tonight!
The Angels get the best carnage rating on the board today, and as we can see, Zimmermann is basically dead last in every category and the implied total here isn’t that far behind what the Dodgers have. The Nationals have a nice carnage rating against Keuchel, as well as a lot of BvP history, so that could be an interesting place to look as well.
Finally, the Padres get to face Baltimore’s bad bullpen, so they are absolutely in play here too. More on them later!
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
We’ll kick things off with a trip to Nationals Park where Dallas Keuchel and the Braves will come to town to face Patrick Corbin and the Nationals. As I mentioned above, the Nationals have a lot of BvP history against Keuchel, so don’t forget to give them a look in GPP today. On the other side, the Braves have seen Corbin quite a bit too, though I trust him to shut them down more than I would trust Keuchel to shut down the Nationals.
Any way you slice it, there are a lot of interesting GPP options here today, so don’t forget about this game just because Coors is on the slate.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna, Donaldson (BvP)
GPP note – I don’t really like full stacks here, but I don’t mind a one-off from a righty
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Turner Kendrick/Gomes/Dozier (BvP)
GPP note – Keuchel isn’t striking out a ton of batters and the Nationals know him well, so get some shares in GPP
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
Warning – at first glance there seems to be some possible weather concerns here, so keep an eye on #dfs-weather today to see what Mark has to say about it!
Weather concerns aside, we get another decent pitching option here with Sonny Gray who has looked pretty good and is getting a ton of Vegas love today (-200 moneyline and only 3.90 implied runs). He struck out 7 both times he’s faced them this year, and he’ll look to make it three today. Needless to say, I’m not too big on the Pittsburg offense here, but you could always stack them if you’re looking for a way to be different on a Coors slate. I’d just rather look elsewhere.
As for the Reds, Lyles has had his struggles this year, there’s some BvP history here, and both carnage and Vegas likes them to do some damage. This is a better place to look for some offensive production.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Bell, Cabrera, Moran
GPP note – Gray has shut them down twice already, and both Vegas and carnage like him to do it again today. I’m not very interested outside of a contrarian dart
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto (BvP), Puig (BvP), Winker, Suarez
GPP note – This would be a decent place to look for some non-Coors fantasy goodness. Grab some stacks or one-offs/mini-stacks
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins
Next up is our lowest implied total of the day (7.5), which means we have two pitchers that are worth a look. I do prefer Smith, though he’s certainly not cheap now. I’m not huge on Kelly here, but you do get a cheap pitcher facing the Marlins, so he’d be worth sprinkling around in GPP today if nothing else. As for the bats, well…I can’t say I’m a fan of either team here!
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Dyson, Peralta, Marte
GPP note – Very little BvP and a difficult matchup against Smith. A one-off might be okay, but I don’t like much else
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Walker, Rojas
GPP note – Zero BvP here and Kelly has been good at mitigating damage in most matchups, and I don’t think the Marlins will get to him a whole lot here
Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals
We head to the K next here for the series opener between the Blue Jays and my Royals, where Pannone will face off against Keller. As far as the pitching goes, Pannone is a bit of a wildcard where Keller has shown he’s worth a look, but I’d be a little careful here as the Blue Jays were able to get to him back in June, though he did squeak out a win somehow. Still, he’s made some progress since then, so don’t write him off completely.
As for the offenses, KC seems to have the upper hand here, but I don’t mind a one-off or two from the Blue Jays (see below).
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Smoak (BvP)
GPP note – Smoak is the best option here (2 for 6 with 2 homers), but if you want to stack here, go for him and the lefties
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Dozier, Soler, Cuthbert…..Gordon
GPP note – I don’t mind some action here in the form of one-offs or full-blown stacks, but definitely favor the righties here (and maybe Gordon)
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Ahh, Coors. I don’t think I need to say much about the bats, as we all know what can happen here. Rather, I’ll just bring up the point about Maeda again, and say that he might be worth a look in GPP today since he could spoil the fun for a while (and he’s so cheap!) While we’re there, I’ll say that Jon Gray knows how to pitch at home, so he might be worth a look too. Still, he’s facing the Dodgers, so be careful. GPP only for these two!
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Pederson/Muncy (BvP), Turner, Seager….any other lefty you want
GPP note – Lefty stacks are obviously in play here. Pederson and Muncy have two homers against Gray. You can join the chalk and go nuts here or look for some lower-owned stacks elsewhere
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon (BvP), Arenado
Rockies 4 star plays – Dahl (BvP), Murphy, Story, Wolters…anybody else you want
GPP note – Same as above. Eat some Coors chalk or pivot away, the choice is yours
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
We get our second-highest implied total of the day here, and most of it is coming from the Angels and their 6.52 runs. Carnage certainly agrees, as we touched on earlier, so definitely give these guys a look today. The Tigers will face Barria who I think can keep them in check, so there’s not much love for them. As for using Barria, I think he makes an interesting SP2 option on DraftKings, sort of like Keller. It helps that the Tigers have practically zero BvP against him.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Castro, Goodrum
GPP note – Not a whole lot to love here, so contrarian stacks only
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Pujols/Upton (BvP), Ohtani (If they play, Bour and Lucroy have nice BvP here as well)
GPP note – With an implied total nearly as high as the Dodgers, you shouldn’t ignore these guys today
Playing some cash games today? If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these 7 Tips for MLB Cash Games!
Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres
And finally, our hammer game features Paddack (who I must say, is rather underpriced on FanDuel today for his ceiling…just saying!) taking on Ynoa and the Orioles. I know the O’s have looked impressive lately, but keep in mind they’ve also been taking advantage of not-so-great pitching, and they will face a stud/ace-in-the-making today, who could stop them dead in their tracks. If you aren’t using Paddack in cash today, definitely get some exposure to him in GPP, as only Corbin (and maybe Smith) can rival his ceiling today.
As for Ynoa and the Padres’ offense, well, it’s really hard to know what we’ll get out of that matchup. What DO we know? We know the Oriole’s bullpen…for lack of a better word…sucks! So definitely get some exposure to stacks here too, as that could be another way to get away from Coors but still have a high ceiling.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Mancini
GPP note – Very tough matchup against Paddack who they have never faced before. I don’t think they’ll have a high-scoring game here
Padres 5 star plays – Machado
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis, Renfroe, Hosmer, Mejia
GPP note – If you want a non-Coors stack with a high ceiling, this is another great option to go along with the Angels
And that’s going to do it for this one. Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!