Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here are the initial carnage reports for the day. You can keep an eye on them right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version for the main slate should be ready by around 10:00am central time (the late slates will be ready closer to 2:00pm).
A look at pitchers
Main slate
Blake Snell – Right away, Snell jumps out at me as the top option this morning. He has the best stats among the board here, the lowest implied total, by far the most Vegas love, and the White Sox have been known to strikeout in bunches against dominant pitchers. You can default here to cash today, and he has more than a high enough ceiling to help you win a GPP. There are some hedge options here of course, but we’ll get to that later in the breakdown.
James Paxton – His carnage rating hasn’t had a chance to catch up yet, but Paxton looks to finally be returning to form, and he’ll get to face a team that quite honestly isn’t right in the head at the moment. Look for him to have a massive ceiling today as well as a solid floor. If you don’t want to pay up for Snell, I’d go here instead.
Kyle Hendricks – There aren’t many other good safe options here, but Hendricks is probably next in line after Snell/Paxton. He’s a good game manager and doesn’t often get blown up, so he usually offers a steady floor in most matchups. I’d probably go with one of those other two first for cash games, but I like Hendricks for GPP or in a secondary cash ladder.
Andrew Cashner – This is both interesting and scary at the same time. Cashner will face his old team today at his old ballpark, and while they have seen him pitch plenty, they haven’t had much experience actually hitting against him (four players are a combined 4 for 15 with no homers against him). His first start with his new team didn’t go very well, so not only will he be looking to show them they made a good choice by taking him, but there’s always that competitive feeling you have when facing your old team. For those reasons (and because he has the second-best carnage rating), I think he’s in play today, but he’s GPP only!
Rogelio Armenteros – He’s basically today’s Urquidy, in that you can take some shots with him in GPP and hope he gets an extended run against these strikeout-prone Rangers. Be careful though, as they’re dangerous when they make contact, and there’s no telling if we’ll see 2, 4, or 6+ innings out of him. GPP only!
Late slate(s)
Walker Buehler – Like Snell, Buehler is the first to jump off the page here with his combination of slate-best attributes. Pretty much everything I said earlier about Snell applies here too, so default here for any cash games you might be playing this afternoon.
Brandon Woodruff – If you want similar upside at lower ownership, you can look at Woodruff here. Due to how close they are in price, I’d lean GPP here and default to Buehler for your cash games.
Jordan Yamamoto – It’s no fun picking on the Dodgers, but Yamamoto has looked solid and nobody will be on him here, so consider him for some GPP lineups. It’s hard telling how high his ceiling might be here, but from what we’ve seen out of him so far, there could be a decent one. This will be the biggest game of the season so far for him, so if he’s good at showing up when the situation calls, he could be in line for a surprise outing here. He might also get blown to hell by all the lefties, so yeah…GPP only!
Offenses to target
Main slate
The two obvious/chalky options are going to be the Yankees and Red Sox today. Both are slated for a bunch of runs, and as we’ve seen, they can both do it in a hurry. Be sure to grab some pieces for cash games and GPP alike.
The Indians were a big letdown yesterday, but like the Red Sox yesterday, they could very well reward those who stay with them after they put up a dud. Sparkman is decent but he’s not somebody I would count on to hold down these bats, and I say that as a KC fan. I would definitely have a fair amount of exposure to them in GPP today because they could be today’s Red Sox from last night.
On the flip side, the Royals carry the best carnage rating on the board today, so give them a look too. We could see a good ‘ol shootout there in Cleveland today, so don’t be afraid to game stack a few lineups with a couple of chalky one-offs from the other games.
The Rays and Blue Jays both get newer pitchers so they are worth a look too. We’ll get to the individual targets of all these teams later, but for now, they have my attention with my initial research.
Late slate(s)
The Angels get Kikuchi today, so load up on them with confidence, as he is no stranger to allowing a bunch of hits and runs. Matz hasn’t looked all that great lately either, so you can grab some Giants while you’re at it. The Dodgers are an obvious easy choice as well, but they will be more common, so you’ll have to decide what to do there (I like the idea of running some Giants and Angels, perhaps along with a Dodgers mini-stack, but more on that later).
The Braves are always worth a look, especially when they’re slated for 6+ runs. Unfortunately this a showdown game only (unless you’re playing a gross all-day slate), but hey, I still have to mention them! Same goes for the Nationals as Gausman has started to look like his old gascan self again. Hooray!
Full Count Breakdown – main slate
Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees
The New York Home Run Express get a tougher matchup here today with Marquez, but honestly, can anybody keep this team down? They’ll also get the Rockies’ weaker bullpen, so as usual, look here for some offensive firepower. I already touched on Paxton earlier, so I won’t again here, but I’m not in love with much of the Colorado side of this game.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Arenado, Blackmon
GPP note – Paxton looks to be returning to form which is very bad news for this offense. Go contrarian or go somewhere else
Yankees 5 star plays – Sanchez, LeMahieu
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge, Voit, Gardner, Hicks…everybody else…the bat boy…
GPP note – Bombs away!!
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Our next chalky team of the day will face Wojciechowski at Camden Yards, and while he hasn’t looked terrible, he also hasn’t had to face this team at home, either. His only saving grace is that none of the Boston batters have ever faced him, but honestly, he’s not somebody who offers elite enough stuff that I’d be worried that they couldn’t hit him. As for Cashner, I went over his situation earlier, so you’ll have to decide which side of the narrative game you want to play.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts, Martinez
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers, Bogaerts, Benintendi
GPP note – Load up on these guys or do the Chalk Dance and hope they drop a dud (they probably won’t)
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Mancini
GPP note – This could be a hit or miss situation, so I would either go heavy or fade them (or do a little bit of a both and hedge some lineups)
Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers
Now that the chalk is out of the way, we get a couple of teams in questionable matchups. This will be Alexander’s first game of the season, while Waguespack only has a few under his belt. I do like the Blue Jays to have the higher ceiling here, and love them as a stand-alone full-stack (or as a supplementary stack to the chalkier teams) but a case could be made for either team.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Gurriel, Guerrero, Galvis, Smoak, Jansen
GPP note – Don’t overlook these guys!
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Jones, Castellanos, Goodrum, Castro
GPP note – They don’t look as promising as the Blue Jays but nobody will be playing them either
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
We get our next ace of the day here, and like the Blue Jays, I like his offense today too. I do of course mean the Rays, if there was any confusion. Anyway, I’d treat them like the Blue Jays – you can go big and full-stack them, and/or use them to compliment some chalkier stacks. Either way, don’t forget about these guys today. As for the White Sox, there are three batters who have hit a home run against Snell, so you could look at them in case something is there; Abreu, Rondon, and McCann (if he starts).
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Rondon, McCann (if he starts)
GPP note – Outside of the hopeful BvP bats…..meh
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Meadows, Pham, Choi, Lowe
GPP note – Don’t overlook these guys, either!
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
We know the Cardinals struggle against pitchers they haven’t seen much of…but they also tend to do well against pitchers they have seen, and that could very well be the case today. Some of them have some good BvP against DeSclafani (it’s a shame Carpenter is out), so look for them for a lower-owned stack that could do some damage here.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Fowler (BvP), Edman, Martinez, Wong
GPP note – Lower-owned team with a decently high ceiling…yay!
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Winker/Suarez/Puig (BvP)
GPP note – I don’t mind a one-off or mini-stack, but I’m not digging full-stacks here
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
It’s not very often that we can say a team with a 6+ implied total might be low-owned, but there’s a decent chance that happens today with the Indians (after the dud they had yesterday, as well as NYY/BOS being on the slate). Anyway, I encourage you NOT to just write them off, because they very well could erupt today against Sparkman. Remember when the Red Sox laid their dud on Friday and followed it up with 17 runs yesterday? That could very well be the Indians today. Don’t forget about the Royals either! They have the best carnage rating on the board, and this game could turn into a good ol’ divisional shootout.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Gordon, Soler, Dozier
GPP note – Best carnage rating on the board + a handful of cheap players = don’t overlook them!
Indians 5 star plays – Lindor
Indians 4 star plays – Santana, Ramirez, Mercado
GPP note – The bottom of the order (Perez/Freeman/Naquin) have all hit a homer against Sparkman already, so consider them as well!
Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates
It looks like instead of Velasquez, we’re getting Smyly today (that will be updated on the final carnage report), which gives a little bump to the Pittsburgh offense here. When they go off, they tend to go off in big spurts, so if you haven’t cared much for the other stack pivots, you could consider them too as they won’t see much ownership.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Hoskins, Segura
GPP note – They’re always worth a look, but Agrazal is a bit of an unknown so it’s hard to say they’re in line for a big game
Pirates 5 star plays – Bell
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds, Marte
GPP note – Another low-owned stack with a high ceiling, focus on the righties if you go here
Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins
As is the theme today, we have another team here with a high ceiling that won’t see much ownership due to those darn Yankees and Red Sox. Actually, we have two teams here that qualify, as both of them can post up 10+ runs at a moment’s notice. Both offenses tend to go off as a group, so if you’re looking for one-offs, I’d probably look elsewhere. Both teams are in play and deserve a look for full stacks though.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Olson, Davis, Semien, Chapman, Grossman
GPP note – This might be the most “all or none” stack on the board today. Go heavy or go somewhere else
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Garver, Kepler, Sano, Polanco, Cruz
GPP note – Yet another lower-owned stack with a high ceiling
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
We get game two of our Texas showdown here today, and there’s a decent chance it could be a bit of a pitcher’s duel. Lynn has looked solid and the Astros don’t have a ton of BvP success against him, while Armenteros, though a bit of an unknown, has also looked decent and the Rangers are good at snoozing at the plate. I’d be inclined to take some shots with the pitchers here, especially Armenteros (after what Urquidy did yesterday), and focus on the other offenses. Of course, if you want a low-owned offense with a high ceiling all to yourself…look at those Rangers.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Gallo, Choo, Santana, Mazara, Pence
GPP note – The second-most “all or none” stack on the board. People won’t be going here after the dud yesterday, so you’ll have their high ceiling all to yourself!
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Springer, Altuve, Bregman, Brantley
GPP note – Lynn has been tough and most of these guys don’t have much success against him, so you may want to shy away from this one
San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
And finally, our hammer game for the main slate, we get another decent pitching option (Hendricks) as well as some sort of a bullpen game from the Padres. Like I mentioned earlier in the article, Hendricks can manage a game very well, so I don’t like much from the Padres outside of a one-off or mini-stack. The Cubs are worth a look here too as they’ll get a bit of a bullpen game and most of their bats can handle reverse-platoon matchups just fine.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer
GPP note – A one-off or mini-stack is all I’d be interested in here. Hendricks generally puts a hard cap on full stacks
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, Baez, Heyward
GPP note – Anything from one-offs to full-stacks are in play here
Full Count Breakdown – late slate(s)
New York Mets at San Francisco Giants
This one is easy! The Mets tend to stink it up on Sundays and Matz hasn’t looked very good lately, so I would look at San Francisco for all things concerning this game. That includes Menez, but since this is his 2019 debut, keep any exposure to him in GPP only. For cash games, go with Buehler (LAD).
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso
GPP note – I don’t have much interest at all in these guys today outside of an Alonso one-off
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Sandoval, Pillar
GPP note – This is a good spot for the Giants to go bonkers again, so don’t be afraid to whip out some big stacks here
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Another team in a good spot to bonkers, the Angels will face Kikuchi today, who is no stranger to allowing all sorts of mayhem on the bases. I have a feeling some sort of combination of the Giants + Angels will contend for some GPP wins this afternoon. Did I mention that several Angels have some BvP here? Poor Kikuchi…
Angels 5 star plays – Trout (BvP and you might know him as Mike Trout)
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani/Calhoun (BvP), Upton, Fletcher/Smith
GPP note – Money-making stacks right here. I really like Fletcher and Smith
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Santana, Beckham
GPP note – Peters is another unknown on the day, but this Mariners lineup is a bit watered down so I don’t have much interest here
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Brewers get another new pitcher for 2019 in Alex young, and fortunately for him, he’s a lefty so that does help his case some (they’re definitely better against a righty). The Diamondbacks will face Woodruff, who they have very little BvP against, so it’s hard to say I have a whole lot of love for them outside of a select few. All in all, I think I like a few one-offs or mini-stacks here, and would prefer to use SFG/LAA for full stacks.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Cain, Grandal, Braun
GPP note – Yelich and the righties are the main targets here
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Dyson, Marte, Escobar
GPP note – I don’t mind the top of the order, but I don’t think the others will have much luck against Woodruff here today
Playing some cash games today? If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these 7 Tips for MLB Cash Games!
Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers
Our afternoon slate hammer features the chalk pitcher, Buehler, as well as some heavy-hitting lefties that are always hungry to do some damage. This one is pretty easy too…target the Dodgers and avoid the Marlins unless you want to go contrarian (but I can’t say with any confidence that it would be a good idea).
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – none (Rojas?)
GPP note – Low ownership, low ceiling, low chance of success…meh!
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Pederson, Muncy, Turner, Verdugo
GPP note – Same old here…target the lefties and Turner
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
Aaaaand finally, our showdown game! It’s a shame this one isn’t on the main slate because I just love plugging in Acuna everywhere I can. Anyway, we’ll have showdown notes up in the coach’s notes page later, so be sure to check those out. For now, the main target here looks to be the Braves and their 6+ implied total, while the Nationals aren’t too far behind. I wanted to say that Gausman isn’t the same Gausman they’ve seen before, but he’s definitely tending back down that rabbit hole, so it looks like attacking him is the answer.
Nationals 5 star plays – Rendon (BvP)
Nationals 4 star plays – Turner, Soto
GPP note – Gausman is slipping again, so keep attacking him until he proves otherwise
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna, Freeman
Braves 4 star plays – Donaldson, Swanson, Albies
GPP note – Stacks big or small, I love them all!
Alright guys & gals, that’s going to wrap this one up. Again, be sure to keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see where everybody is leaning today, and I hope you all enjoy your week. I’ll see you all in Slack!