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DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown, Advice, and Strategy for FanDuel and DraftKings – July 16th, 2019

Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

First  Things First – Looking at Pitchers

I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start by looking at the Research Station and find my main targets based on which teams on the slate have the lowest ISO and wOBA’s against that pitcher’s handedness. From there I then go to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. After my initial research, I’d rank my top 3 as of now at:

  1. Walker Buehler –  Buehler takes on a VERY tough offense but his K numbers are impressive and he offers us the highest ceiling on a night without any other elite SP options.  He offers us the 5th highest KSCORE to go with the best overall carnage rating.
  2. Andrew Cashner – Cashner does not stand out from a Carnage report standpoint but his numbers against the TOR roster are extremely impressive and he gets to make his BOS debut tonight.  I am very much all-aboard the Cashner train tonight.
  3. Jordan Yamamoto – I realize that SD has a ton of power but Yamamoto has yet to give up an HR at the MLB level and the Padres strike out a ton vs RHP.  Yamamoto is going to be my favorite GPP SP for tonight’s slate.  He offers us the 4th highest KSCORE from the carnage report.

After I get finished looking at pitching, I move on to my hitters. I look for which teams have the highest ISO against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing. ISO stands for Isolated Power and it is defined as:

ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits — and the type of extra-base hit — into account. For example, a player who goes 1-for-5 with a double has an ISO of .200.

Where do we get most of our fantasy points in DFS baseball? Home runs, and if a player has a high ISO it usually correlates very well with extra-base hits and home runs. So the higher a player’s ISO is, the more likely they are to produce hitting for extra bases and home runs, which in turn = more fantasy points! An average ISO is right around .140 and an elite ISO is anything above .250. Teams with the highest ISO’s on the slate tend to score more runs and are in turn more stackable. For more info on how to use ISO to your advantage, check out dabbingpuggle’s Tournament Strategy Guide here!


Full Count Breakdown:

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees

Starting Pitchers: Ryne Stanek vs CC Sabathia

Sabathia is making his 5th start against TB this season (you read that right, start #5).  He has been extremely solid in the previous 4 starts and now gets to face TB at home, where he has an ERA over 3.5 runs lower and averages twice as many DK points per start.  Stanek has pitched in 7 games against the Yankees this season and the results have been horrendous.  He has given up 10 runs in 8.2 innings and his road ERA this season is nearly 3 runs higher than his home ERA.  Look to the Yankees to score early here.

TB 5-star plays: Michael Brosseau (.333 ISO vs LHP)

4-star plays: Kevin Kiermeier (6 for 19, 2 HRs vs CC), Yandy Diaz (.258 ISO vs LHP), Mike Zunino (5 for 11 1 HR vs CC)

GPP Note: TB is striking out at a 26% rate vs LHP this season.

NYY 5-star plays: Gary Sanchez (.283 ISO vs LHP), DJ LeMahieu (.894 OPS vs LHP)

4-star plays: Brett Gardner (4 for 9 1 HR vs Stanek), Edwin Encarnacion (.300 ISO vs LHP w/NYY)

GPP Note: NYY is striking out at just under a 25% rate against LHP (Beeks) this season.

Stackability:

Tampa Bay Rays –  1.5 Stars

New York Yankees –  3.5 Stars


Los Angeles Dodgers (-190) vs Philadelphia Phillies

Starting Pitchers: Walker Buehler vs Vince Velasquez

The Dodgers offense is firing right now with a ton of power.  This lineup is loaded with ISO over the last week and there are a couple of BvP spots (small sample) that stand out against Velasquez.  On the other side, I just don’t see a lot to love against Buehler as he has been dominant this season.  He has done a GREAT job of keeping the ball in the yard during his road starts this season.  I do not mind a one-off dart from PHI as the ballpark is certainly small enough.

LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger (.438 ISO L7), A.J. Pollock (.429 ISO L7)

4-star plays: Justin Turner (.350 ISO L7), Alex Verdugo (.400 ISO vs L7)

PHI 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jay Bruce (.365 ISO vs RHP w/PHI), Rhys Hoskins (.255 ISO vs RHP)

Stackability:

Los Angeles Dodgers:  4 Stars

Philadelphia Phillies:  2 Stars


Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles

Starting Pitchers: Austin Voth vs. Asher Wojciechowski

The Nationals are 8-2 over the last 10 games and have been one of the hottest teams over the last month-plus.  We are going to need to look at stacking them but I honestly do not feel all that strongly about them in this one.  That is surprising given the number of HRs that BAL has given up this season.  Voth very much intrigues me on the other side and it’s based purely on the fact he is facing BAL.

WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon (.291 ISO vs RHP)

4-star plays: Juan Soto (.226 ISO vs RHP)

BAL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Chance Sisco (.365 ISO vs RHP), Trey Mancini (.212 ISO vs RHP)

Stackability:

Washington Nationals –  3.5 Stars

Baltimore Orioles –  2 Stars


Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians

Starting Pitchers: Ryan Carpenter vs Zach Plesac

Carpenter was absolutely destroyed by CLE in his only start against them.  He gave up 8 runs in 3 innings in that appearance.  We are going to definitely want CLE exposure across all contest types tonight.  Plesac is in a great spot against a team that strikes out a TON against RHP this season.  The Tigers are just weak overall and while Plesac could get hit by an HR randomly, he should breeze to a solid QS here.

DET 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Christin Stewart (.429 ISO L7)

GPP Note: DET is striking out at a 26% rate against RHP this season.

CLE 5-star plays: Oscar Mercado (.500 ISO L7, 2 for 3 vs Carpenter)

4-star plays: Carlos Santana (.400 ISO L7), Jose Ramirez (.313 ISO L7)

GPP Note: The Indians K at a 22% rate against LHP this season.

Stackability:

Detroit Tigers –  1 Star

Cleveland Indians –  3.5 Stars


Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox

Starting Pitchers: Jacob Waguespack vs Andrew Cashner

Andrew Cashner is in an EXCELLENT spot to make his Red Sox debut.  He has absolutely dominated this TOR roster and the Blue Jays are coming in extremely cold right now.  We definitely are going to want to have a lot of exposure to Cashner here.  The Red Sox offense is in a great spot and could explode here again.  Right now they are my favorite stack of the evening.

TOR 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Cavan Biggio (.242 ISO vs RHP)

GPP Note: TOR is striking out at just under a 25% rate against RHP this season.

BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers (.256 ISO vs RHP), Xander Bogaerts (.237 ISO vs RHP)

4-star plays: Mookie Betts (.228 ISO vs RHP), Michael Chavis (.250 ISO L7)

GPP Note: BOS is striking out at just a 21% rate against RHP this season.

Stackability:

Toronto Blue Jays –  1.5 Stars

Boston Red Sox –  4.5 Stars


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San Diego Padres (-125) vs Miami Marlins

Starting Pitchers: Logan Allen vs Jordan Yamamoto

This game is all about pitching for me.  Both young starters have shown flashes in their debut seasons.  Yamamoto has yet to give up an HR in his MLB career and while I think there’s a decent chance that could change tonight, he is striking guys out and limiting damage.  Allen struggled in his last 2 appearances before the break but should be in a great spot to right the ship against the punchless Marlins offense.

SD 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr. (.306 ISO vs RHP), Franmil Reyes (.312 ISO vs RHP)

GPP Note: SD is striking out at over a 26% rate against RHP this season.

MIA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Garrett Cooper (.636 ISO L7), Jorge Alfaro (.222 ISO L7)

GPP Note: MIA is striking out at just over a 21% rate against LHP this season.

Stackability:

San Diego Padres –  2 Stars

Miami Marlins –  1 Star


Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers (-155)

Starting Pitchers: Alex Young vs Lance Lynn

The numbers in this game say that the SPs are the ones to get exposure to.  I definitely agree but I do think there are some bats here that could be GPP winning darts.  Lynn has been hit better by LHBs this season but he has limited them to just 2 HRs while RHBs have hit 8 HRs against him.  Alex Young has been really strong so far in his brief MLB career and now gets a solid match-up against a team that is striking out a ridiculous amount against LHPs.

ARZ 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Ketel Marte (.400 ISO L7)

GPP Note: ARI is striking out at just a 22% rate against RHP this season.

TEX 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Joey Gallo (.406 ISO vs LHP)

GPP Note: TEX is striking out at nearly a 29% rate against LHP this season.

Stackability:

Arizona Diamondbacks –  2.5 Stars

Texas Rangers –  2.5 Stars


Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs

Starting Pitchers: Anthony DeSclafani vs Alec Mills

This game has a bunch of guys on the offensive end that are swinging excellent bats right now.  The Reds get the better SP match-up but the Cubs have the more dangerous offense.  We will need to pay attention to the wind at Wrigley but I am definitely in favor of multiple game stacks here.  Mills has been below average in the minors this season and the Reds are swinging it so I could see the Reds being a difference-maker in GPP lineups.

CIN 5-star plays: Yasiel Puig (.438 ISO L7), Eugenio Suarez (.533 ISO L7)

4-star plays: Derek Dietrich (.308 ISO L7), Jesse Winker (.243 ISO vs RHP)

GPP Note: CIN is striking out at just under a 25% rate against RHP this season.

CHC 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber (.533 ISO L7)

4-star plays: Jason Heyward (.294 ISO L7), Kris Bryant (.214 ISO L7)

GPP Note: The Cubs are striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.

Stackability:

Cincinnati Reds –  3.5 Stars

Chicago Cubs –  4 Stars


New York Mets vs Minnesota Twins (-133)

Starting Pitchers: Steven Matz vs Michael Pineda

Four of Pineda’s last five starts have been 1 run or less and nine of his last ten have seen him allow 3 runs or less.  He has picked it up a bit since the start of the season, which is to be expected in his return from Tommy-John.  Pineda has struggled with RH power bats and that could play directly into Alonso’s hand.  I love Pineda for all game formats but will definitely hedge with some Mets exposure.  On the other side, I ALWAYS love the Twins.  Add in the fact that they are facing an LHP and I have a lot of interest in pieces as both stacks and one-off options.

NYM 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Robinson Cano (6 for 12 2 HRs vs Pineda), Pete Alonso (.306 ISO vs RHP)

GPP Note: NYM is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.

MIN 5-star plays: Mitch Garver (.380 ISO vs LHP), Nelson Cruz (.333 ISO vs LHP)

4-star plays:  Miguel Sano (.367 ISO vs LHP), CJ Cron (.321 ISO vs LHP-Is on the IL currently but could be activated today)

GPP Note: MIN is striking out at a 20% rate against LHP this season.

Stackability:

New York Mets – 2 Stars

Minnesota Twins –  3.5 Stars


Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers (-150)

Starting Pitchers: Bryse Wilson vs Brandon Woodruff

This game is between two of my favorite offenses to stack this season but I just don’t see much here to get excited about.  The Braves are the more dangerous offense right now but they face the better SP in Woodruff.  I have been all aboard the Woodruff train this season and use him nearly every start.  He has impressive K upside, even in a tough match-up.  Woodruff allowed just 2 solo HRs against ATL earlier this season.  Wilson has struggled in 2 road starts so far this season and the Brewers are a dangerous offense.  The problem is the Brewers offense has been pretty cold for an extended period of time.  I do think they turn it around at some point and will have stack exposure just in case that turn around starts tonight.

ATL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Freddie Freeman (.291 ISO vs RHP), Josh Donaldson (.643 ISO L7)

GPP Note: ATL is striking out at just under a 23% rate against RHP this season.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich (.403 ISO vs RHP)

4-star plays: Mike Moustakas (.277 ISO vs RHP), Keston Hiura (.500 ISO L7)

GPP Note: MIL is striking out at over a 25% rate against RHP this season.

STACKABILITY:

Atlanta Braves –  2.5 Stars

Milwaukee Brewers –  3 Stars


Chicago White Sox (-120) vs Kansas City Royals

Starting Pitchers: Dylan Cease vs Glenn Sparkman

This game doesn’t excite me from any side.  Cease has impressive K upside but he struggles to find the strike zone and that brings a pretty low floor into play in this spot.  Sparkman is a P that I like to use bats against but the White Sox aren’t exactly all that dangerous of an offense.  I will be using guys from this game as one-off options for GPP purposes but do not see a ton to like for your cash lineups.

CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada (4 for 6 HR vs Sparkman)

4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez (.246 ISO vs RHP), Jose Abreu (.239 ISO vs RHP)

GPP Note: CWS is striking out at a 26% rate against RHP this season.

KC 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jorge Soler (.308 ISO vs RHP)

GPP Note: KC is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.

Stackability:

Chicago White Sox –  2.5 Stars

Kansas City Royals –  2 Stars


Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals (-176)

Starting Pitchers: Dario Agrazal vs Jack Flaherty

The Pirates offense has cooled down slightly but they are still dangerous.  I never set out to stack against Flaherty as he has shown flashes of dominance.  Flaherty’s ERA is basically 2.5 runs lower at home this season as he has averaged twice as many fantasy points at home as he has on the road.  With the Cardinals offense, I have a lot of interest as Agrazal has shown reverse splits in his brief MLB career and the Cardinals lineup can offer a ton of punch from the right side.

PIT 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Josh Bell (3 for 9, 3 xbhs vs Flaherty), Starling Marte (.600 ISO L7)

GPP Note: PIT is striking out at under a 20% rate against RHP this season.

STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt (.308 ISO L7)

4-star plays: Tyler O’Neill (3 HRs, 2 2Bs over last 3 games)

GPP Note:  STL is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.

Stackability:

Pittsburgh Pirates –  2 Stars

St Louis Cardinals –  3.5 Stars


San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies (-125)

Starting Pitchers: Drew Pomeranz vs Peter Lambert

Pomeranz has been impressive in his 2 starts against COL this season but those two happened in SF.  This game is in Coors and should lower his fantasy points per game average against the Rockies.  I see this game being the typical Coors, a high scoring game as Lambert has been smacked around at home and Pomeranz has been smacked around on the road.  Do not get cute here, get yourself Coors exposure and move on.

SF 5-star plays: Alex Dickerson (.400 ISO vs RHP)

4-star plays: Brandon Crawford (3 HRs, 9 RBI yesterday), Pablo Sandoval (.270 ISO vs RHP)

GPP Note: SF is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.

COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado (.310 ISO vs LHP), Ian Desmond (.339 ISO vs LHP)

4-star plays:  Charlie Blackmon (.259 ISO vs LHP)

GPP Note:  COL is striking out at a 26% rate against LHP this season.

Stackability:

San Francisco Giants –  4 Stars

Colorado Rockies –  4 Stars


Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels

Starting Pitchers: Hector Rondon vs Andrew Heaney

The Astros are going with an opener tonight and they are expected to call-up a minor league SP that threw 95 pitches 4 days ago.  Heaney is a P I normally like for strikeout upside but this is not the spot.  The Astros have hit him pretty well and the team is swinging decent bats right now.  I think this game ends up as a sneaky high scoring game tonight.

HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve (8 for 22, 4 xbhs vs Heaney), George Springer (.412 ISO L7)

4-star plays: Robinson Chirinos (4 for 11, 2 HRs vs Heaney), Yuli Gurriel (.286 ISO L7)

GPP Note: HOU is striking out at an 18% rate against LHP this season.

LAA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Mike Trout (.394 ISO vs RHP), Shohei Ohtani (.287 ISO vs RHP)

GPP Note:  LAA is striking out at just an 18% rate against RHP this season.

Stackability:

Houston Astros –  3.5 Stars

Los Angeles Angels – 2.5 Stars


Seattle Mariners vs Oakland A’s

Starting Pitchers: Marco Gonzales vs Daniel Mengden

Mengden has been absolutely dominant against RHBs so far in 2019 while struggling with LHBs.  Seattle has struggled a TON since the first month of the season and this makes a spot where I will have interest in Mengden for GPP purposes. The A’s lineup doesn’t strike out against LHPs and they offer us a TON of power.  Chapman has dominated Gonzales in his career and the middle of the lineup has a ton of ISO working in their favor here.

SEA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Dee Gordon (HR and 3B vs Mengden), J.P. Crawford (3 for 6 vs Mengden)

GPP Note: SEA is striking out at over a 25% rate against RHP this season.

OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman (9 for 20, 5 xbhs vs Gonzales)

4-star plays: Matt Olson (.357 ISO vs LHP), Khris Davis (.269 ISO vs LHP)

GPP Note: OAK is striking out at under an 18% rate against LHP this season.

Stackability:

Seattle Mariners –  1.5 Stars

Oakland A’s –  3.5 Stars


Make sure to check out the Coaches Notes/Players Picks as they will have this game covered for you in all areas. The pricing is so much different from the main slate that it can be tough to breakdown from a DFS standpoint. With that said, at first glance, I would be attacking the Cardinals offense and hoping to jump on them while the field views them as terrible plays after they haven’t scored many runs over the past week or so.


As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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