Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at the Domination Station
We have updated our DS MLB optimizer with more customization options and it should be rolling out of BETA at any point. Kevin does a spectacular job of explaining the new additions to the optimizer and how it differentiates us from the rest. I love checking out who the DS has rated highly via projections and the DFS Army grades. You DEFINITELY need to add this into your daily process. When I am building just a handful of lineups, I use it to get an idea of who it likes. When I am multi entering, I am always tweaking the stacks around to get the exposures I want before exporting.
Domination Station Tutorial Update
Full Count Breakdown:
Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals (-) – Game 1
I am definitely looking at a Rockies stack for game 1 of the doubleheader. The 3 guys listed below make an excellent 3-man stack in this spot as Fedde just doesn’t strike enough guys out. I have interest in Jon Gray for GPP purposes as I think Washington ends up higher owned due to their performance yesterday. I can see a route to the Nationals getting to Gray but I want to leverage some of that ownership.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon (5 for 5 against Fedde)
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado (3 for 4, HR against Fedde), Trevor Story (.522 ISO L7)
GPP Note: COL is striking out at a 24% rate against RHP
WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon (3 for 6 against Gray)
4-star plays: Trea Turner (2 for 6, HR against Gray), Matt Adams (.333 ISO L7)
GPP Note: WAS is striking out at just over a 22% rate against RHP
Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals (-) – Game 2
For me, Game 2 is all about the Nationals. I really like Corbin as a pitcher so I can’t see myself stacking against him. I wouldn’t mind a one-off from COL in search of HRs. With the Nationals, part of it is the fact that Freeland has been really bad this year and the other part is a few of the bats are strong against LHP.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado (12 for 44, 3 HRs against Corbin)
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon (12 for 42, 5 xbhs against Corbin), Ian Desmond (.342 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: COL is striking out at over a 26% rate against LHP
WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon (3 for 7 against Freeland)
4-star plays: Brian Dozier (.301 ISO vs LHP), Kurt Suzuki (.263 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: WAS is striking out at just over a 21% rate against LHP
St Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates (EVEN)
This game is one that I am targeting for bats and will definitely have some game stacks. The Cardinals have a few guys with strong numbers against Lyles and a few others who are swinging the bat very well right now. On the other side, Wainwright is FAR from consistent these days and this Pirates lineup could be a bit too much for him to overcome.
STL 5-star plays: Tyler O’Neill (.310 ISO L7), Paul Goldschmidt (10 for 21, 6 walks against Lyles)
4-star plays: Yairo Munoz (.357 ISO L7), Jose Martinez (4 for 7, HR against Lyles)
GPP Note: STL is striking out at just over a 23% rate against RHP
PIT 5-star plays: Josh Bell (6 for 14, HR against Wainwright)
4-star plays: Colin Moran (4 for 6, HR against Wainwright)
GPP Note: PIT is striking out at just a 19% rate against RHP
Cleveland Indians (-135) vs Toronto Blue Jays
This spot is tough to gauge for the Indians. They have been swinging it really well of late but face a pitcher that has been really strong and is on the trade block. Some times we see SPs struggle because of all the rumors and uncertainty floating around and other times we see them absolutely locked in and focused. This is one of those spots that I am just not sure about, in regards to Stroman.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor (.310 ISO L7), Jose Ramirez (.345 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Oscar Mercado (.370 ISO L7), Tyler Naquin (7 for 12 against Stroman, .348 ISO L7)
GPP Note: CLE is striking out at just over a 22% rate against RHP
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez (.619 ISO L7)
GPP Note: TOR is striking out at over a 24% rate against RHP
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays (-110)
A left-handed pitcher against the Rays is ALWAYS in play. Tampa Bay just is not the same offense against LHP and with Diaz on the IL, they have managed to get weaker. The Red Sox have surprising BvP against Morton and I think that is something we can take shots on in our GPP lineups. They are going to go somewhat overlooked (still a popular team for casuals to stack) based on the opposing SP.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts (7 for 17, HR 3 2Bs against Morton), Andrew Benintendi (4 for 13, 2 HRs 2B against Morton)
4-star plays: Mookie Betts (5 for 12 against Morton, .276 ISO L7), Rafael Devers (.467 ISO L7)
GPP Note: BOS is striking out at just a 21% rate against RHP
TBR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud (.389 ISO L7)
GPP Note: TB is striking out at over a 26% rate against LHP
Philadelphia Phillies (-145) @ Detroit Tigers
Today is the day that the Phillies bust out of their little slump. Zimmermann is not a pitcher to fear at this point so I expect the Phillies to put up some runs in Detroit today. I am intrigued by Velasquez’s upside here as the Tigers are NOT good at all, especially against RHP. I do have interest in Castellanos as a one-off bat as he has been very open about being traded.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper (.320 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins (.248 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: PHI is striking out at just over a 23% rate against RHP
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos (.346 ISO L7), Niko Goodrum (.350 ISO L7)
GPP Note: DET is striking out at over a 26% rate against RHP
San Diego Padres vs New York Mets (-150)
I really like this game from an SP standpoint. Lamet was a guy that I was excited about leading up to his Tommy-john surgery. I can see a couple of different outcomes from this game, with the first being a pitchers duel that sees the SPs combine for 16+ Ks. The other is a game with a handful of HRs. I am going to lean towards the big strikeout game combination as I really like this spot for both SPs.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr. (.282 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes (.305 ISO vs RHP), Hunter Renfroe (.304 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: SD is striking out at over a 26% rate against RHP
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil (.921 OPS vs RHP), Pete Alonso (.303 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: NYM is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP
Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves (-210)
I don’t have a great feel for this game as I was way off on yesterday’s match-up. The Braves have one of the more dangerous offenses in baseball so we always need to consider them. Teheran is a tough guy to figure out as he nibbles so much and if he doesn’t get the calls or teams to chase off the plate, he walks a bunch and walks lead to big innings. The issue is that I don’t see a lot from KC that can take advantage of it.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler (.299 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: KC is striking out at just under a 23% rate against RHP
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman (.277 ISO vs RHP), Josh Donaldson (.275 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Brian McCann (.207 ISO vs RHP, 2 for 3 against Keller)
GPP Note: ATL is striking out at just a 23% rate against RHP
Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers (-145)
This game could be the top game to stack as Sims has been pretty bad in his MLB career and Chacin just hasn’t been good this season. The Reds have some solid numbers against him to go along with a couple of hot bats. The Brewers have to bust out again soon, don’t they? There is a lot of talk in WI right now about the Brewers and how some fans are clamoring that they should actually turn into sellers at the trade deadline.
CIN 5-star plays: Yasiel Puig (13 for 32, 3 HRs against Chacin)
4-star plays: Joey Votto (9 for 28, 2 HRs 2 2Bs against Chacin), Eugenio Suarez (.591 ISO L7)
GPP Note: CIN is striking out at just under a 25% rate against RHP
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich (1 for 2, 2B 4 walks against Sims)
4-star plays: Ryan Braun (.333 ISO L7), Keston Hiura (.269 ISO L7)
GPP Note: MIL is striking out at just over a 25% rate against RHP
Miami Marlins vs Chicago White Sox (-115)
I have zero interest in targeting this game. I think a case can be made for either of the SPs, especially Gallen. The Marlins offense is just a train wreck while the White Sox just aren’t as dangerous without Anderson. I wouldn’t argue a one-off of Abreu or Moncada due to their upsides but that is definitely it.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Curtis Granderson (3 for 6, 2 HRS against Lopez), Starlin Castro (.296 ISO L7)
GPP Note: MIA is striking out at a 26% rate against RHP
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: CWS is striking out at a 26% rate against RHP
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Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros (-220)
Verlander has given up the most HRs in baseball and it is insane to think that. He still has been absolutely dominant this season. It wouldn’t shock me to see him give up a couple of solo HRs in this game. The Astros offense is in a solid spot here as Bassitt has traditionally struggled with RHBs. They are going to be near the top of my stacks list.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Khris Davis (6 for 14, 4 HRs against Verlander), Matt Olson (.267 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: OAK is striking out at a 21% rate against RHP
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel (.556 ISO L7), Michael Brantley (.524 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez (.348 ISO L7), Jose Altuve (.320 ISO L7), Alex Bregman (.298 ISO L7)
GPP Note: HOU is striking out at under a 19% rate against RHP
New York Yankees (EVEN) vs Minnesota Twins
Last night’s game was absolutely nuts. I hope the fireworks continue here as the Twins get to face an LHP and I am sure you all know by now just how much I love the Twins when they get an LHP. Odorizzi had been a reverse splits guy for much of his career but he has really corrected that this season. I still think we need to look at Yankee bats here.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu (.348 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Aaron Judge (.250 ISO L7), Aaron Hicks (.400 ISO L7)
GPP Note: NYY is striking out at under a 23% rate against RHP
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz (.444 ISO L7), Mitch Garver (.938 ISO L7, 5 HRs last 7 days)
4-star plays: Miguel Sano (.385 ISO L7), Jorge Polanco (.417 ISO L7)
GPP Note: MIN is striking out at a 19% rate against LHP
Baltimore Orioles vs Arizona Diamondbacks (-170)
Means is the better SP in this game but the Diamondbacks offense is far more dangerous than the Orioles. Clarke is giving up a lot of power to RHBs and is struggling against everybody. This is a spot to go HR hunting in my opinion. I would not be shocked to see this game end up with 5+ HRs at the end of it.
BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini (.636 ISO L7, 4 HRs last 6 games)
4-star plays: Renato Nunez (.435 ISO L7)
GPP Note: BAL is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP
ARI 5-star plays: Eduardo Escobar (.455 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Ketel Marte (.296 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: ARI is striking out at just a 21% rate against LHP
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Chicago Cubs (-140) vs San Francisco Giants
This game has pitchers duel sneakily written all over it. Beede has been absolutely filthy over the last 30 days and the Cubs aren’t exactly lighting it up at the plate. The Giants can struggle quite a bit against LHP, especially with Longoria on the IL. Lester is going to make the top of my list for cash SPs while Beede is definitely going to find himself in a fair share of my GPP lineups.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javier Baez (.308 ISO L7), Anthony Rizzo (.227 ISO L7)
GPP Note: CHC is striking out at a 24% rate against RHP
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: SF is striking out at a 25% rate against LHP
Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-190)
Barria is coming off of being absolutely embarrassed on the mound and Stripling isn’t scaring me either. This game could see double-digit runs to go along with 4+ HRs tonight. Neither team is striking out this season so there definitely will be balls put in play and most likely they will be hit hard.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout (5 for 5, 2 HRs against Stripling, .476 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun (.278 ISO L7)
GPP Note: LAA is striking out at just over an 18% rate against RHP
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner (.389 ISO L7), Max Muncy (.398 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger (.378 ISO vs RHP), Joc Pederson (.322 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: LAD is striking out at just over a 20% rate against RHP
Texas Rangers (-135) @ Seattle Mariners
Mike Minor is going to be at the top of many lists tonight as Seattle is just a bad offense overall and they get much worse against LHP. The Rangers hitters have REALLY strong career numbers against Leake and that is something we can’t ignore tonight. They get to see him more than most teams (being in the same division) and numbers in those instances carry more weight with me.
TEX 5-star plays: Rougned Odor (6 for 19, 2 HRs against Leake, .565 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Nomar Mazara (6 for 16, HR 3 2Bs against Leake, .400 ISO L7), Danny Santana (.318 ISO L7)
GPP Note: TEX is striking out at a 26% rate against RHP
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Domingo Santana (.319 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: SEA is striking out at just under a 26% rate against LHP
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.