Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting in a good or bad sense.

Chris Sale: Not much needs to be said about Sale’s K ability. He gets to face a team that is striking out a TON against LHP and this game has the lowest total on the board. If you can afford him, get yourself plenty of Sale shares.
Chris Paddack: Paddack struck out 11 Mets the first time he faced them and I absolutely love this kids’ stuff. He has an average against of just .183 on the season so far.
Dylan Covey: I am intrigued by Covey’s numbers against RHBs so far in 2019. We need to find out if he is projected to see a pitch total increase or not. If he is expected to go just a few innings then he is off my radar but if he is said to be able to get 70+ pitches in, then I want some GPP exposure as a dart throw.

Full Count Breakdown:

Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals (-180)

With the rainout on Monday, we get Lambert pushed back to Tuesday over Jon Gray. My initial write-up had Jon Gray in and that led me to only one to one-off, HR hunt this game. With Lambert starting, I have interest in a Nationals stack to go with HR hunting from COL. Eleven of the thirteen HRs that Strasburg has given up this season have come at home.

COL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon (7 for 17, 5 xbh’s vs Strasburg), Trevor Story (.429 ISO L7)

GPP Note: COL is striking out at a 24% rate against RHP

WAS 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Matt Adams (.333 ISO L7), Juan Soto (.219 ISO vs RHP)

GPP Note: WAS is striking out at just over a 22% rate against RHP

St Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates (-130)

Archer has been absolutely filthy against the Cardinals in 2019. He has 16 Ks across 11 innings and has allowed just 3 runs in his 2 starts against them. He has been a victim of the HR ball this season though as he has allowed 22 of them in 90.2 innings. Hudson struggled with baserunners against PIT in his only start against them this season. I am interested in PIT LHBs and one-off power bats from STL in hopes of picking up an HR.

STL 5-star plays: Tyler O’Neill (3 for 6, HR vs Archer and .310 ISO L7)

4-star plays: Yairo Munoz (.357 ISO L7)

GPP Note: STL is striking out at just over a 23% rate against RHP

PIT 5-star plays: Josh Bell (3 for 3, double vs Hudson)

4-star plays: Starling Marte (3 for 6 vs Hudson)

GPP Note: PIT is striking out at just a 19% rate against RHP

Cleveland Indians (-170) vs Toronto Blue Jays

For me, this game is all about the Indians side. Bauer has been absolutely elite on the road this season (his road ERA is nearly half of his home ERA). He has done a great job of keeping the ball in the park away from home. The Indians bats are swinging it extremely well over the last week and Sanchez allows a TON of baserunners.

CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor (.310 ISO L7), Jose Ramirez (.345 ISO L7)

4-star plays: Oscar Mercado (.370 ISO L7), Tyler Naquin (.348 ISO L7)

GPP Note: CLE is striking out at just over a 22% rate against RHP

TOR 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Justin Smoak (3 for 9 vs Bauer), Teoscar Hernandez (.619 ISO L7)

GPP Note: TOR is striking out at over a 24% rate against RHP

Boston Red Sox (-160) vs Tampa Bay Rays

I prefer the SPs in this game but I do think a Boston stack could be a GPP winner. Chirinos has reverse splits and that could play into the hand of the BOS main bats plus Devers is just on a roll. Sale struck out 8 against TB earlier this season and we know he has massive K upside. He is going to find himself at #1 on my SP sheet for this slate.

BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts (4 for 11, 2 doubles vs Chirinos)

4-star plays: Mookie Betts (.276 ISO L7), Rafael Devers (.467 ISO L7)

GPP Note: BOS is striking out at just a 21% rate against RHP

TBR 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Yandy Diaz (4 for 6, 3 xbh’s vs Sale), Travis d’Arnaud (.706 ISO L7, 4 HRs last 5 games)

GPP Note: TB is striking out at over a 26% rate against LHP

Philadelphia Phillies (-140) @ Detroit Tigers

Boyd has given up 14 HRs over his last 8 starts and has allowed 33 runs in those 8 starts. He doesn’t seem to be right and that puts me on PHI as a sneaky GPP stack in this spot. Nola has been better at home than on the road this season but Detroit has been really bad against RHPs. Nola is going to carry ownership and I can’t argue it based on the opponent.

PHI 5-star plays: Jean Segura (.338 ISO vs LHP), Bryce Harper (.320 ISO L7)

4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins (.308 ISO vs LHP), Scott Kingery (.259 ISO L7)

GPP Note: PHI is striking out at just under a 22% rate against LHP

DET 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos (.346 ISO L7), Niko Goodrum (.350 ISO L7)

GPP Note: DET is striking out at over a 26% rate against RHP

San Diego Padres (-130) vs New York Mets

This is all about the SD side for me today. Paddack struck out 11 against the Mets earlier this season and he is allowing an average against him of just .183 on the season. I do not think very highly of Vargas at all and I absolutely love the Padres when they face an LHP. There is a very good chance they end up as my top stack of the night.

SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado (.486 ISO vs LHP), Hunter Renfroe (.464 ISO vs LHP)

4-star plays: Ian Kinsler (BvP Alert: 25 for 67, 12 xbh’s vs Vargas), Fernando Tatis Jr. (.222 ISO vs LHP)

GPP Note: SD is striking out at a 26% rate against LHP

NYM 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jeff McNeil (.921 OPS vs RHP)

GPP Note: NYM is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP

Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves (-210)

This battle of LHPs should go the way of the Braves. I do not mind the two KC bats below as one-offs or even a mini-stack (I won’t be using Keuchel). The reason I won’t be using Keuchel is that his K numbers are just not there, even in a match-up that he should see a boost in. I will be stacking the Braves multiple ways with guys not listed below (Swanson, Freeman, Flowers).

KC 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Cheslor Cuthbert (5 for 9, 2 HRs 2 2Bs vs Keuchel), Whit Merrifield (5 for 9 vs Keuchel)

GPP Note: KC is striking out at just under a 25% rate against LHP

ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr. (.272 ISO vs LHP), Josh Donaldson (.225 ISO vs LHP)

4-star plays: Austin Riley (.524 ISO vs LHP), Ozzie Albies (.247 ISO vs LHP)

GPP Note: ATL is striking out at just a 22% rate against LHP

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers (-135)

Davies has struggled in two starts against the Reds this season as he has given up 8 runs in 8 innings. In those 8 innings, he allowed 15 baserunners and 2 HRs. Roark has given up 4 HRs in 17 innings against the Brewers this season but he has managed to pick up 18Ks while allowing just 8 runs (not a great ERA by any means). As a roster, the Brewers have an OPS of just .672 against Roark in their careers.

CIN 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Joey Votto (10 for 27 vs Davies), Derek Dietrich (4 for 11, 2 HRs vs Davies)

GPP Note: CIN is striking out at just under a 25% rate against RHP

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich (13 for 48 2 HRs and 11 walks vs Roark)

4-star plays: Ryan Braun (.474 ISO L7), Eric Thames (.294 ISO L7)

GPP Note: MIL is striking out at just over a 25% rate against RHP

Miami Marlins (-130) vs Chicago White Sox

I am shocked that the Marlins were such chalky options on Monday and I have a feeling they are going to carry ownership against a woeful Covey. The issue is that Covey’s weakness is against LHBs and he has been extremely impressive against RHBs in 2019. The Marlins do not have any dangerous LHBs at this point. I generally love Smith and will definitely have shares today but I really like a 3 man White Sox stack in this spot (Moncada-Abreu-McCann).

MIA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: NONE

GPP Note: MIA is striking out at a 26% rate against RHP

CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada

4-star plays: James McCann (1 for 1 HR vs Smith-small sample)

GPP Note: CWS is striking out at a 25% rate against LHP

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Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros (-150)

It is possible that the entire OAK starting lineup has an ISO of over .190 against LHP and yet, I don’t love them in this spot. Miley has pitched extremely well against this roster in his career. He has made 2 starts against the A’s this season and has allowed just a total of 2 runs in those starts. Over the last 7 games, the Astros have hit 16 HRs and have scored 45 runs.

OAK 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Matt Chapman (.352 ISO vs LHP), Matt Olson (.364 ISO vs LHP)

GPP Note: OAK is striking out at under an 18% rate against LHP

HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel (.464 ISO L7), Michael Brantley (.455 ISO L7)

4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez (.348 ISO L7), Jose Altuve (.320 ISO L7), Alex Bregman (.318 ISO L7)

GPP Note: HOU is striking out at under a 19% rate against RHP

New York Yankees (-115) vs Minnesota Twins

Both pitchers have made one start against the opposing team this season with German having the most success of the two. German managed to strike out 7 in 6.2 innings while allowing just 4 hits. Gibson went 5 innings and allowed just 2 earned runs but did allow 9 baserunners. Both teams have guys swinging the bat extremely well over the last week so this game could have some runs put up. The Yankees have the better match-up in terms of hitting so they will be who I look to get stack exposure to. The Twins bats fall into a one-off category for me.

NYY 5-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion (10 for 33 4HRs vs Gibson, .259 ISO L7), DJ LeMahieu (.423 ISO L7)

4-star plays: Aaron Judge (.333 ISO L7), Aaron Hicks (.292 ISO L7)

GPP Note: NYY is striking out at under a 23% rate against RHP

MIN 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Max Kepler (.286 ISO L7), Nelson Cruz (.346 ISO L7), Mitch Garver (.833 ISO L7, 5 HRs last 7 days)

GPP Note: MIN is striking out at a 21% rate against RHP

Baltimore Orioles vs Arizona Diamondbacks (-170)

Both pitchers in this game struggle with power bats from the right side. Two-thirds of the HRs that each SP has allowed have come to RHBs in 2019. I won’t be ignoring some of the hotter bats from ARI (who are switch hitters/LHBs) but my primary goal will be to get exposure to the RHBs with power upside in this spot.

BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini (.682 ISO L7, 4 HRs last 6 games)

4-star plays: Renato Nunez (.304 ISO L7)

GPP Note: BAL is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP

ARI 5-star plays: Eduardo Escobar (.455 ISO L7), Ketel Marte (.296 ISO L7)

4-star plays: Christian Walker (.258 ISO vs RHP), Alex Avila (.310 ISO vs RHP)

GPP Note: ARI is striking out at just a 22% rate against RHP

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Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants (-110)

This could be Bumgarner’s last start as a Giant with the trade deadline approaching. He has been absolutely spectacular at home and has been dominant against LHBs all season long. The Cubs have a dangerous offense but this may be a spot to target Bumgarner and hope the Giants offense can do enough to get him a W. Darvish has been dominant against RHBs but has struggled against LHBs so far in 2019. This game could be a sneaky one to target for the SPs.

CHC 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Kris Bryant (.412 ISO vs LHP), Javier Baez (.412 ISO vs LHP)

GPP Note: CHC is striking out at over a 25% rate against LHP

SF 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski (.464 ISO L7), Alex Dickerson (.389 ISO L7)

GPP Note: SF is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP

Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers

The Angels roster is 6 for 44 against Maeda and they have K’d at a 30% rate against him. I am not a fan of SPs against the Angels but those numbers (small sample) added to Maeda’s home splits makes me want to think about a couple of shares tonight. Pena really struggled in a spot that I believed he would (after the highs of the no-hitter for Skaggs night) and I think this is another spot in which he could have some issues getting back up to face a Dodgers team that can destroy RHP.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout (.438 ISO L7)

4-star plays: Albert Pujols (.385 ISO L7)

GPP Note: LAA is striking out at just over an 18% rate against RHP

LAD 5-star plays: Max Muncy (3 for 7, 3 HRs vs Pena)

4-star plays: Cody Bellinger (.378 ISO vs RHP), Joc Pederson (.322 ISO vs RHP)

GPP Note: LAD is striking out at just over a 20% rate against RHP

Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners

Waiting on the SP match-up to be announced

TEX 5-star plays:

4-star plays:

GPP Note:

SEA 5-star plays: