Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting in a good or bad sense.
- Clayton Kershaw – It’s hard not to like Kershaw tonight, as he draws one of the best matchups that a pitcher can have with the Miami Marlins. The Marlins are striking out at a 27.5% rate against left-handed pitching this season to go along with Kershaw’s 23.5% rate. The Marlins have an implied run total of just 2.7 which is unheard of this season. Kershaw is also scoring nearly 6 more Draftkings points per game more at home making him one of my favorite pitching options on the slate.
- Rick Porcello – I normally like to write-up at least one cheaper option, as I like playing a cheap pitcher at SP2 especially with all the runs scored this season. Porcello draws an elite matchup with the Baltimore Orioles here tonight. The O’s strikeout at a 26.9% rate on the season against right-handed pitching. I know the Orioles put up a big game last night, but you could do much worse than Porcello here.
- Jose Berrios – Oakland has a pretty high run total here at 4.7, which is a little scary. With that said, Berrios has well-known home/road splits in his career. On the season he is scoring nearly 8 more Draftkings points per game more at home than on the road. Oakland strikes out at a 26.1% rate against righties this season and this feels low due to half their games being played in Oakland which mitigates strikeouts due to the foul ball territory. I like Berrios tonight.
Full Count Breakdown:
San Diego Padres (+129) @ Chicago Cubs (-140)
We need to keep an eye on the Weather Station here as it looks like this will be a wind game today. Of the two offenses, the Padres are probably my favorite. They have a ton of home run upside but never really flashes when they are at home in that big ballpark. The Cubs are viable here as well due to the wind pushing the ball out, but I like the Padres slightly more.
SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: The Padres are my preferred side of this game simply because I think Quintana is capable of giving up a lot of hard-hit balls and the Padres like to get under them. Hopefully, the wind will help take those balls over the fence.
CHC 5-star plays: Javier Baez, Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Albert Almora, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: I have respect for Joey Lucchesi’s stuff which is why I like the Padres more here, but you can’t rule the Cubs out due to the wind.
Colorado Rockies (+222) @ New York Yankees (-244)
To quote Aaron Boone, “These guys are savages in the box”. If you haven’t seen the video of Boone getting ejected the other day I recommend you go watch it. The Yankees have an implied run total of over 7 here making them one of the best stacks of the day, don’t overthink this one.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Ian Desmond, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Tanaka is priced where he should be so I will have a bit of him, but I don’t mind taking a chance on some of these power bats for the Rockies in a small ballpark.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Edwin Encarnacion, Luke Voit
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks
GPP Note: Don’t overthink this, whoever cracks the lineup is in consideration here against Senzatela. They’re expensive, but I think we can find a way to make it work.
New York Mets (+128) @ San Francisco Giants (-139)
Walker Lockett will get the start for Wheeler here and has a 7.7 SO/9 in the minors this season, so if you need a salary saver I think you could do much worse. On the other side, there is no way I’m paying that price for Jeff Samardzija, simply out of principle.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Peter Alonso
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, you don’t need to stack these teams on this slate
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: This slate has a lot of good options, there’s no need to go here.
Chicago White Sox (+138) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-150)
This game features two pitchers that I like today, Giolito has been a stud for most of the season and Yarbrough has been great in his long relief role. Giolito hasn’t been as great recently, but I’ll side with talent on this one and stay away from the Rays bats if I’m not able to get Giolito into my lineups. The great thing about Yarbrough getting the start here is it makes him viable on FanDuel, as he normally isn’t because he doesn’t qualify for a quality start which he will today.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, James McCann (DK)
GPP Note: I won’t be stacking here, but the high upside one-offs are interesting
TBR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: You can find better spots than stacking against Lucas Giolito today
Toronto Blue Jays (-147) @ Detroit Tigers (+136)
I loved Stroman last night and he ended up doing very well. Streaming pitchers against the Tigers can be very profitable so I will have some interest in Trent Thornton today for this reason. This game does have an implied run total over 10 so don’t go too crazy with it, but I like it. The Jays were a chalky offense last night and went and scored 12 runs, I think you can go right back to the well here.
TOR 5-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel, Cavan Biggio, Vlad Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: Eric Sogard, Justin Smoak
GPP Note: They came through last night with a big night, but are a very volatile team. I like them here, but don’t go too overboard.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Just no reason to play a bad offense on a slate full with great options.
Boston Red Sox (-214) @ Baltimore Orioles (+196)
I touched on Rick Porcello above when I broke down pitching briefly, but he is one of the more intriguing pitchers on the slate given this matchup. I stacked up the Red Sox yesterday and they disappointed, but I’m going right back to the well! They have an implied run total of over 7 runs, so sign me up. I gave this stat yesterday, but, Mookie Betts smokes the ball in Camden Yards with 14 HRs, 1.008 OPS, .601 SLG, and a .303 batting average in his career.
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Christian Vazquez (DK), Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: They are one of my favorite stacks of the day and on the slate, I will be all over them. Don’t be afraid to do a wrap-around stack either to save some money.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: I have more interest in Rick Porcello, but the fact that the O’s put up so many runs last night warrants GPP consideration.
Philadelphia Phillies (+119) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-129)
I want to have interest in Zach Eflin here, but the Pirates just do not strikeout, as they float around the 21% on the season. That combined with Eflin’s recent form is enough for me to stay away here. Joe Musgrove is an intriguing cheap SP2 option as well. This may be one of those spots where I just chase one-offs because I don’t have much interest in either stack if I’m completely honest.
PHI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto (DK), Scott Kingery
GPP Note: I will likely end up with some Musgrove here, but that is more of a salary play. This offense is full of upside and if you can get them right you will be sitting on a nice pay-day.
PIT 5-star plays: Josh Bell
4-star plays: Starlin Marte
GPP Note: I’m taking a wait and see approach here because my gut is telling me to play some Zach Eflin.
Texas Rangers (+176) @ Houston Astros (-192)
This game features two very cheap pitchers that I think we can target from an offensive perspective. The Rangers have a lower implied run total than I thought they might, so they will go unowned if you want an off the board tournament stack. While the Astros have an implied total of nearly 6.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Hunter Pence, Danny Santana, Joey Gallo, Shin-soo Choo
GPP Note: This stack will likely go unowned, but are capable of putting up runs in bunches. I don’t hate the idea of having a small piece of them for GPPs.
HOU 5-star plays: George Springer, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Robinson Chirinos (DK)
GPP Note: The Astros will be up in that same tier as the Red Sox for me on the main slate, I give the edge to the Sox, but love the Astros here.
Kansas City Royals (+148) @ Cleveland Indians (-161)
The Indians had a big night last night and I will be targeting any team that gets to go up against this Kansas City bullpen. Jakob Junis is tasked to come to the rescue here and is coming off of a great start against the White Sox. I won’t be quite as high on the Indians as I was yesterday, but they’ll be a secondary stack because of that Royals bullpen.
KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I like some pieces of this offense, but with Adalberto Mondesi out of the lineup it becomes pretty weak toward the bottom from a stacking perspective.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Oscar Mercado
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Jake Bauers, Jordan Luplow
GPP Note: The Indians came up big last night and will look to bring Junis’s hot start last game to an end. If they can get to the bullpen early the Indians will be sitting pretty.
The MLB Research Station is my #1 source for research every single day and is one of the VIP Only tools our members have access to daily. The info in the MLB ReSearch Station includes today’s
DFS Army Projection, Adjusted BVP matchups and much more. This tool will cut your daily research time in half. If you’re familiar with CeeGee and Ben you already know the time they’ve put into the “Sheets” and are extremely happy to provide them as apart of your DFS Army VIP Membership this year.
Oakland Athletics (+126) @ Minnesota Twins (-137)
I wrote-up Jose Berrios in my pitcher’s section and will likely end up with quite a bit of him even considering that A’s run total. The Twins have disappointed me every time I stack them lately, so I’m getting a bit gun shy with them. That said, they do get a nice matchup here and have as much potential as any offense in the league.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: I like Berrios here so I won’t end up on the A’s in anything but a hedge stack.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Jason Castro/Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Like I said they have let me down lately, but it’s hard to ignore the potential with this offense, they are a secondary stack for me.
St. Louis Cardinals (+119) @ Cincinnati Reds (-128)
Luis Castillo is the highest-priced pitcher on the board and gets a Cardinals offense that has been pretty down for most of the season. They had a big night last night, but I’ll side with Castillo here. I likely won’t end up with a ton of Castillo because I’ll just take the savings with Kershaw, but don’t play the Cards offense here. I don’t really like stacking against Miles Mikolas either, this may just be a stay-away game for me.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’m not targeting a bad offense against Luis Castillo
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Yasiel Puig, Derek Dietrich, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Yikes this lineup looks bad with Suarez out of it, I’ll find better spots tonight.
Washington Nationals (-145) @ Atlanta Braves (-158)
Mike Soroka has a lot of potential in this league, although I like him the Nats offense is also very good and there should be some nice hitting conditions here, so I’ll go elsewhere. The Braves are interesting in a matchup against Anibal Sanchez, this could be a big night for them.
WAS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Soroka is a very talented young pitcher that I have respect for. I won’t be fully stacking the Nats, but the ballpark and hitting conditions make mini-stacks and one-offs viable.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Josh Donaldson, Austin Riley, Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: The Braves will be in that Tier 1 of stacks with the Red Sox and the Astros for me, I think they could blow up here.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential, to games that could have significant winds that will play a roll in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Milwaukee Brewers (+126) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-137)
The Dbacks got to Chacin last night and let me tell you, Eduardo Escobar is hitting EVERYTHING like a rocket over the past two nights. I normally like the Brewers offense, but I respect Greinke’s talent so I won’t end up there tonight. This is Gio Gonzalez’s first start since coming off the injury list and at that price on Draftkings he’s a hard fade.
MIL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Keston Hiura, Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Greinke is one of those pitchers that I just won’t stack against, one-offs are fine here especially Hiura and Yelich who are hitting the snot out of the ball.
ARI 5-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Christian Walker
4-star plays: Jake Lamb, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: I don’t stack against Gio Gonzalez, I don’t think he’s had a bad start with the Brewers since he came over last season, but there are some bats in this offense that I will want exposure to.
Miami Marlins (+244) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-269)
Clayton Kershaw is one of the best pitchers on the slate tonight and I will have a ton of him, plain and simple. The Dodgers were held down last night, but I don’t hate targeting them in GPPs. They will be in that same tier as the Twins tonight from a stacking perspective.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No thank you.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: I like the Dodgers here and they normally go under-owned when they’re at home. They aren’t a top stack for me but are on my list of secondary stacks if you can find the money for GPPs.
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
First off, I’m sorry if you listened to my Jaime Barria take last night, you likely ended up smashing your phone through the wall like I wanted to. But I do think Griffin Canning is playable ere and is in that same tier as Jose Berrios, this Mariners offense is simply just not good enough to be consistent. It looks like Wade LeBlanc will get the start here if you want to stack the Angels’ then go for it, but there are enough spots on this slate that I will go elsewhere.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Not a terrible GPP stack, but they don’t crack that secondary tier for me
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: Just one-offs from the Mariners, I will have some Griffin Canning against them here.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have the experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return, and you have a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.