BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 13 Location – Sacramento, California
Thanks for purchasing my UFC Sacramento breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Sac-Town on ESPN+. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k+ goes to 1st place with a total of $125k being paid out. They also have a Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. This is the LAST WEEK to qualify if you are trying to. I will try to get my 3rd seat this week to max it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Vince Morales $8,500 vs Benito Lopez $7,700
Vince Morales
Age: 28
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: American Free Fight MMA
From: Oregon
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 248
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -140
Vince Morales earned his first UFC win in his last match. He got an upset victory over Aiemann Zahabi in May. Morales is a fun fighter to watch. Morales is a good striker, he is light on his feet & has a wide, hands down stance. He has fast, crisp hands, nasty punching combinations and is extremely accurate. He has a sick jab that he will double and triple up on. He will paw the jab out to land the straight-right hand and it is clean and powerful. He has a nice, short left hook, and in the pocket will unload with clean punching combinations. He likes to land the long, leaping right hand if his opponent is backing up. His counter left hook backing up is nasty and when he lands clean he can finish the fight. He is aggressive and keeps a good pace. He will throw hooks to the body, and the occasional leg kick. He has decent head kicks. He is heavy on his lead leg & susceptible to leg kicks. He also is flat footed at times & likes to counter. In this fight, he must go first more & back Lopez up. He has a questionable chin and when he gets clipped, he will wobble in a lot of fights. He has good ability to recover and keep going. He showed a strong chin against Yadong Song & took a lot of big shots. Morales is definitely dangerous with 5 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Morales isn’t a grappler, and very rarely will ever go for takedowns or initiate the clinch. He was a former wrestler but doesn’t use it in MMA. If fighters initiate the clinch on him, he has really improved his takedown defense, and he is very hard to takedown. He does a great job of sprawling on double legs and not letting fighters cement position if they do get him down and bouncing right back. He circled to the back and got a slam takedown in his last Bellator match. He also has great ground & pound after he drops opponents and gets brutal knockouts. He has three submissions & been submitted two times. Morales needs to go forward, put his punches together & maybe even try to mix in some takedowns. He has to push Lopez back & back him towards the cage. He should try to counter the jab of Lopez with combinations. If he gives Lopez space, he is going to struggle because I see him struggling with the movement & kicks. Morales does have power & puts his punches together well. If he can back Lopez up he could piece him up or knock him out for the victory.
Benito López
Age: 25
Height: 5’11
Weight: 135
Reach: 73”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: California
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 144
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +120
Benito López suffered his first loss in his last fight. He was submitted very quickly by Manny Bermudez, but at 25 years old he has a long career ahead. He was scheduled to fight Martin Day, but Day has now been replaced by Vince Morales. He is an athletic striker, and very dynamic. He still doesn’t have great hands or footwork. He will throw some range finding jabs, one-twos & right hooks, but he’s a much better kicker. When he can land a kick into a one-two, uppercut combination, he looks much more fluid with his hands. His kicks are the most evident part of his game. He has solid inside, outside leg kicks, and nasty front & round kicks to the body. He will attack the body with hard round kicks, and then go up to the head. He has nice question mark kicks. He will throw nice spinning back kicks to the body & head with little windup. He will throw jumping round house kicks and isn’t afraid to let anything go in his fights. He has nasty flying knees, he dropped & almost submitted Albert Morales in round one after a flying knee. He times them excellently when opponents are pressuring or level changing. His defense & boxing are a bit lacking. I don’t like the way he reacts to getting hit clean. He can freeze up a bit. He needs space to be effective & fighters can nullify a lot of his game with forward pressure. When he’s moving backwards, he can’t kick & opponents really only have to worry about the flying knees. He has his hands low & doesn’t move his head well in the pocket. Fighters can counter his jabs with lead hooks & overhands. He isn’t the most powerful striker, but with more time in the cage I can see him start to get more knockouts. The type of strikes he throws, you really don’t need a lot of power to get the knockout. He has 3 KO/TKO’s in his career & has never been finished by strikes.
Lopez has very questionable grappling skills in my opinion. He allows fighters to back him to the fence easily & he doesn’t do a good job of getting off the fence. He was controlled against the fence for a large period of time against Steven Peterson. He can get taken down with body locks & single legs. He also can get outmuscled in the clinch. Fighters can circle to his back from standing very easily. His style of throwing a lot of flashy techniques just makes it hard to be a good defensive grappler. He is constantly on one leg, throwing spinning kicks & going airborne. While those techniques are great when they land, they allow opponents to get inside & get easy takedowns if avoided. He is opportunistic with his own submissions & will dive on guillotines. He will attack with triangle chokes & armbars off his back. His Jiu-Jitsu isn’t bad off his back. He is good at using his legs to keep & retain guard. He is also good at using feet on the hips to stand up. He was able to stand up against Manny Bermudez one time when he took his back. Unfortunately for Lopez, he got caught in a guillotine from standing position in the clinch, snapped down & Bermudez changed it to a darce & finished him. Bermudez is a sick submission artist & I don’t think many people will be able to submit Lopez. He looks to be squirmy & good on the ground defensively. He has a solid guillotine but isn’t a big submission threat. He has two submissions & his one loss is via submission. Lopez is going to be the more athletic, faster fighter here & he has to move. He has to use that lateral movement, straight punches & kicks to keep Morales on the outside. I think his low calf kicks will be a nice shot to work. Lopez is going to have success if given space. He will stick & move all night.
This is an awesome curtain jerker. I think both these guys have solid potential in this sport, I think this could be one of the highest paced fights on the card and it could be a fun 15-minute striking battle. Both guys are solid on the ground as well, but I am not sure either will look to get it there unless they are losing the striking battle. I did expect this line to be flipped though. Lopez is the guy who originally was scheduled to fight so Morales is the one that didn’t have a full camp. Both guys are from California, so I am not sure how much the Team Alpha Male crowd will really affect the judges. I see this being a very close fight, but I think Lopez is the more dangerous fighter on the feet and on the ground. I also think Morales is more hittable as well, which could allow Lopez to land even more than his 5 significant strikes per minute. This is a close fight, so it is hard to be too confident here, but I am taking the underdog to get his hand raised. I think he could get a finish on the feet or the mat, but I will take him to win on the judges’ scorecards.
On DraftKings, Lopez is my preferred play. He is a dog I am picking to win, and he is in the first fight of the night, so I will look to be overweight on him. However, I think a number of dogs can win on this card, so I don’t want to be overly exposed to any of them. I do think other underdogs have better chances of getting finishes but I do think Lopez has one of the higher floors, so I like him in all formats. Morales isn’t as interesting to me because I don’t see him finishing either, so he will have a much harder time reaching value at his price. If I use Morales at all it will be more of a hedge, but I don’t expect to have so much Lopez that I need to hedge this fight, so I will likely pass.
Winner – Benito Lopez via Unanimous Decision
Brianna Van Buren $8,200 vs Livia Renata Souza $8,000
Brianna Van Buren
Age: 25
Height: 5’0
Weight: 115
Reach: 62”
Gym: Ant Dawg’s MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 21
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -130
Brianna Van Buren is coming off winning a one-night tournament in Invicta. She won three fights in one night, taking out two UFC veterans in Juliana Lima & Kailin Curran. She is getting a big opportunity here to jump right into top 15 fights with a win here. Van Buren is a 5’0 spark plug. She is short, stocky & can hit hard from close range. Van Buren is also a southpaw. She has a wide stance & likes to explode in & out of range. She has good hooks & overhands. She will throw a rear uppercut, left hook combination. Her hands at range aren’t great & she struggles to find range. She really likes throwing the left round house kick to the body. After she lands it to the body a few times, she will go to the head & try to catch opponents sleeping. When she does back opponents to the cage, she throws nice combinations to the body and head. She has solid power. She has an attitude & when she gets her confidence, she will talk shit & taunt opponents. She doesn’t have huge power with just two KO/TKO’s.
Brianna Van Buren is a strong wrestler. She is very explosive & has nice blast double legs. She will take opponents off their feet with big slams. She dominated all three of her fights with wrestling in the Invicta one-night tournament. On top, she isn’t extremely dangerous, but she is heavy & does enough to keep top position. She will throw short punches, forearms & elbows. She likes to transition to the mount or the back. She was able to get a rear naked choke to capture the Invicta belt against Kailin Curran. Van Buren is a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu & I do see her trying to get takedowns. If she can control Souza in her guard & stay safe that will go a long way towards her getting the victory. Van Buren has 3 submission victories, but I would be very surprised if she finished Souza. I see Van Buren trying to stick & move and then seal rounds with late takedowns. She is the much faster fighter with her feet & if she can find her timing, she will have success in the striking.
Livia Souza
Age: 28
Height: 5’5
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: Team Vinicius Maximo
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +110
Livia Souza has had a successful 2-0 start to her UFC career. She was scheduled to fight a much more high-profile fight against Cynthia Calvillo, and she can’t let this be a letdown spot for her. She was able to overcome her last opponent who weighed in at 123 lbs, but it was a hard-fought decision. Souza is light on her feet with good lateral and side to side movement. Souza has nice leg kicks, and one-twos. She has very fast hands. In this fight she should throw long hooks & straight punches. Her straight-right hand is powerful, she will use it to close the distance where she will attack with hooks to the head & body. She likes to get inside & brawl as well, but in this fight, she needs to stay on the outside. She has nasty body kicks and has finished Deanna Bennet with a liver kick who is a 125er. Souza will not go backwards & allow Van Buren to bully her. She has 2 KO/TKO’s, and never been finished in her career.
Souza is a black belt in BJJ, and very aggressive with her Jiu-Jitsu. She will dive on submissions in the clinch, try to get standing guillotines and just pull you down to her world. She likes to attack with leg locks off bottom. She will attack with double and single leg shots but her best takedown is her trips and judo throws. In her last match though, she showed improved timing on her double legs. She was able to take Frota’s back who is also a black belt, and almost submitted her via rear naked choke. Frota was saved by the bell. She will also pull guard, where she has great sweeps and good leg lock. She has good armbar attacks also. She is comfortable fighting off of her back and doesn’t take much damage there. She has hard ground & pound elbows & has great back takes. She has great rear guillotine chokes. She is very opportunistic with submissions. When she sees an opportunity, she goes for it. Souza has 8 submissions in her career & has finished 10 of her 13 fights overall. She has great cardio and has five round championship experience. Souza is going to finally have a height & reach advantage for once. She needs to try to stay long with her straight punches & body kicks. She will obviously be looking for takedowns & won’t mind working in her guard if Van Buren gets takedowns. She can’t get too complacent there, but I could see her getting a submission off of her back. I haven’t seen Van Buren on her back since she returned from her 3-year hiatus, but I imagine Souza will have success in top position. I think in the clinch Souza should be able to get takedowns & control well due to her big height advantage. Souza needs to use a good game plan & veteran savvy to defeat the young, athletic Van Buren.
This is a close matchup as the odds indicate. Both fighters look somewhat similar in style and it will be interesting to see how this plays out. Buren is only 5 ft tall and Souza is 5’5”, so that could possibly help Souza on the feet and maybe Buren with takedowns. I like the aggressiveness from Souza and I think she can go out there and land multiple takedowns herself, but with Burn having the lower base and being pretty strong herself, she is likely the one who is more successful with takedowns. She is a strong wrestler, but I am not as sold as a lot of others seem to be. I think it would be hard to be very confident picking either side of this fight, but I do think Souza should be the slight favorite, so I am going to take her since she is the underdog here and I am going to take a 1u shot at +100. I think she can win with volume on the feet, but I think she looks to make this an ugly fight, does a lot of cage work and edges out a win here.
I am interested in both sides of this fight for DraftKings. First of all, Souza is my free bet of the week, so naturally we should all be interested in Van Buren at this point the way free bets have been going. But, this fight could have multiple takedowns from both sides and with it being the mid-range fight of the week it won’t be real hard for the winner to hit value. If there is a lot of cage grinding in this fight, then that will take away from the points scored but I do think the pace of this fight and the potential takedowns are worth targeting. My preferred play is Souza and I think she is fine for all formats. She is another dog I like to win, and I think she could get a finish on the feet or the ground. I also like BVB because she could rack up a lot of takedowns if she gets a win here and if she wins it would likely be through the wrestling. I prefer this fight more so for GPPs, but I wouldn’t talk anybody off using either side in cash games.
Winner – Livia Renata Souza via Unanimous Decision
Liu Pingyuan $8,700 vs Jonathan Martinez $7,500
Pingyuan Liu
Age: 26
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: China
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 90
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: -150
Pingyuan Liu will be looking to run his UFC record to 3-0. He is one of the main training partners of Yadong Song. They fought back to back, so they probably worked together a lot. Liu has won 10 consecutive fights overall. He is an explosive, well-rounded fighter. Liu is going to be the bigger, more powerful fighter in this matchup in my opinion. Liu is very aggressive, almost too aggressive. He is a sick athlete, with great physicality, but is still young & needs to gain composure to home in his skills. Liu has a nice jab, and good one-two. His straight-right hand is very fast. He will throw powerful overhand rights. He will throw jab, overhand rights or left hook, overhand right combinations. He will also start combinations with rear uppercuts that are powerful. He likes to throw spinning backfists, which he throws very quickly. He has decent body & head kicks but not the best. He does catch kicks very well and is good at returning with powerful, straight punches while he has ahold of the leg. Liu does have good footwork and cuts the cage off well. His constant forward pressure is impressive & he has insane cardio. In his last match, he was able to catch a kick & counter dropping his opponent in round 3. He was able to out grapple Martin Day & win the round in a fight that was 1-1. The problem with his striking is it’s a lot of big movements. He shows flashes of putting together good combos behind the jab, but he gets too crazy. He will overextend on punches. He will rush in giving up his hips for potential takedowns. He was sat down with a shot in his last match. He doesn’t move his head & will enter into range in straight lines. He was getting beat up at range in his last match rather easily and needs to be inside to be successful. He is cocky & willing to take one to give one. He will taunt opponents & walk forward & trusts his chin. Liu has 4 KO/TKO’s. He has been finished one time by strikes.
Liu is a very strong fighter. He isn’t a great wrestler, but his Jiu-Jitsu looks strong. He will try to use a blitz of punches to dive onto a single leg. He gets the majority of his takedowns through catching kicks, driving the opponent to the cage, or just dumping them. When he gets opponents against the fence he will attack with single & double leg takedowns. Liu is only 1 for 5 on takedown attempts in 2 UFC fights. He can get taken down when he’s too aggressive, but when he sees the shots coming he’s great at defending them. He has a heavy sprawl and will use it to take top position. He has good front chokes. When he is taken down he is very hard to hold down & will sweep to top position. He does not mind being on bottom & will even pull guard. He was almost able to get a jumping guillotine in his last match. He also pulled guard once in that fight. He works very well off his back. He will bring his legs high & try to trap an arm, so he can attack armbars or triangles. He will also roll for nice leg locks he can use to sweep. He was able to take the back of Martin Day in his last match, threatening with an armbar.
Jonathan Martinez
Age: 25
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 69.5”
Gym: Factory X
From: Texas
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 113
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +130
Jonathan Martinez earned his first UFC victory in his last match. He won a unanimous decision over Wuliji Buren. He will be looking to take out another Chinese prospect in Liu. Martinez is a smaller 135er & is going to be undersized in this matchup. Martinez isn’t the explosive athlete Liu is, but he is more technical. He is a southpaw with a nice body kick, and straight-left. He has good kicking technique, usually starting his combos with kicks. He will throw inside leg kicks, and he has good front kick. He will throw oblique kicks to the knees as well. He will throw a body kick, left hook combination. He will throw a jab, left hook combination. He has nice right hook, left uppercut combinations. When he finds his range & can go forward he flows well. He will throw nice combinations & has very fast kicks. He has nice knees straight up the middle to the body & head. He doesn’t have great footwork & is too flat footed. He will stand in front of opponents & is hittable. He is willing to take shots & counter, but the last time he fought an explosive athlete/power puncher in Andre Soukhamthath he went into a defensive shell. He has 5 KO/TKO’s, and he does have a solid chin. He has heart & can take a lot of punishment, recover & respond. He has never been finished by strikes.
Martinez is a solid Jiu-Jitsu player, and tricky off his back. He will duck under into the clinch at times & does a good job with head positioning & moving his opponents back to the cage. When he fought Andre Soukhamthath, he was thoroughly dominated in the clinch. He was out muscled & Soukhamthath was able to unload with big knees & punches to the body, and head. He has good body lock takedowns against the cage. He has good single legs & if he can’t get them he will throw hard elbows and disengage. He likes to control in half guard & lands hard elbows. He does a good job of moving to side control & then scrambling to the back when opponents try to stand up. He has decent rear naked chokes. His takedown defense is questionable, but he’s good off his back. He’s very good at attacking with triangles & will transition from the triangle to the armbar. In his last match, he was able to out scramble Wuliji Buren, and sweep him multiple times. He landed some good ground & pound and threatened with some rear naked chokes. Martinez is very tough and will weather a storm & come back if he needs to. He has great cardio. He needs to utilize his range striking to defeat Liu. He needs to go first, work his kicks from range, and then counter with punches as Liu tries to get inside. He can’t let Liu bully him backwards, he has to go first.
I think Pingyuan is the more skilled fighter between these two and I think he has a higher ceiling in the sport as well. I don’t think he comes into fights with the greatest game plans though and he doesn’t fight at a high pace. Martinez is a guy who can beat Pingyuan here just by outworking him. He is the more active striker and he fights as if he is looking to win. Pingyuan seems like he fights just expecting to win and he doesn’t seem to look at it from the judge’s angle. He is still young and hopefully improving each fight, but he is hard to trust at this point. I think the line is about right here and if there is a finish in this fight I expect that to come from Pingyuan. However, if this fight goes the distance I think Martinez can steal this one. I might go back and forth on this pick through the week but right now I am going to side with a split decision from Martinez.
To start the card, I am picking 3 underdogs to win so we could be in for an interesting week. My preferred play here is Martinez because he is a dog I like to win. I do think Pingyuan has the higher ceiling though, so I do have interest in him as well but for GPPs only. Martinez is in play in all formats, but I don’t see him getting a finish or having any 100-point upside, but I think 10x is a solid projection in a win and I will be throwing him in my player pool. I may even be overweight to the field, but I think I prefer Lopez and Souza a bit more if we are deciding between these first three dogs. Pingyuan is in play for a finish here but the only way he ends up on the optimal lineup is if he gets that finish. He isn’t somebody I am looking to invest a lot into, but I could see him making 5-15% of my lineups and Martinez closer to 15-25%.
Winner – Jonathan Martinez via Split Decision
Ryan Hall $8,300 vs Darren Elkins $7,900
Ryan Hall
Age: 34
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: Virginia
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 41
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -115
Ryan Hall has been a bit of an enigma since joining the UFC. He is undefeated at 3-0, and fought some big names, but this is his first big test. He is coming off his first UFC finish. He won via heel hook in round one. His striking isn’t the most traditional, but he’s barely been hit in 3 UFC fights. He has been hit with just 17 strikes in 6.5 UFC rounds. Hall has a karate stance and uses a lot of lateral movement. He throws a lot of front kicks to the legs, body & head. He will also throw sidekicks to the head & body. He will throw front kicks into spinning back kicks, & has some decent short punches when fighters close the distance. He rarely throws hands, and when fighters get into boxing range against him, he will literally just flop to his back to avoid the punches. He doesn’t throw the kicks with big power, but he has good cardio, and volume. He has two TKO’s in his career and has never been finished.
Hall isn’t a wrestler, but with his style he doesn’t need to be. His style forces fighters to either engage at kicking range against Hall, or deal with him off his back. Hall is one of the best grapplers in the world on the ground. He is a Naga super fight champion, and a US grappling super fight champion. Hall also is always looking to use iminari rolls and attacking the legs. He has nasty leg locks and is a master of the 50/50 position… Gray Maynard wanted no part of the ground game with Hall & his timidity to engage on the ground led to his loss. Hall has very fast hips, and a deadly guard. He has nasty triangles, armbars, and very good sweeps. In top position, he has great guard passing and can quickly move to dominant positions. He has a good rear naked choke as well. He has 4 submissions in his MMA career, and has never been submitted.
Darren Elkins
Age: 35
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: Indiana
UFC Record: 13-6
Fight Matrix: 19
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -105
Darren Elkins needs a win in a big way. He was dominated by Alexander Volkanovski & then knocked out by Ricardo Lamas. He took an absurd amount of punishment & you have to wonder how he’s going to recover. He has notoriously been hard to finish though, and a grinder. He is an awkward striker, but he has improved. He has a good jab, and a decent straight-right hand. Elkins has a strong body kick, and he used it effectively against Alexander Volkanovski. Elkins has a decent check left hook in close, and he will attack with uppercuts as well. He has an awkward counter right hand, and he catches fighters coming in with it. He has a hell of a chin, and his pressure and pace breaks fighters. A lot of his shots are to close the distance and get in the clinch. He took a ton of punishment in his last fight, and eventually that’s all going to come back to him, but as of now his chin is still strong. He has gotten KO/TKO’d two times. He isn’t a big knockout threat, but he 6 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Elkins is a very strong grappler, and that’s his main objective in his fights. He doesn’t have great wrestling shots, but he likes to get a hold of opponents and get body locks. He is a dog in the clinch, he gets attached to his opponents, makes it ugly and drags fighters to the ground. He is great in the scrambles and is hard to take down and hold down himself. He proved that against Mirsad Bektic, as he wore him out with grappling scenarios, and came back with a nasty head kick to finish the fight. He gets desperate with takedown attempts at times and shoots from way too far out. He has phenomenal cardio, and guys get tired beating on him and he takes over. He usually loses round 1 before rallying for the win. Elkins only has 4 submissions & has been submitted one time. It will be interesting what his game plan will be in this fight & whether he wants to go to the ground.
Ryan Hall has the best leg locks in this sport and he doesn’t care if his style is exciting or not. He is fine just diving for ankles and hoping to get one, if he does then there is a good chance he ends the fight fast. He has 4 heel hooks on his record and I think he will be looking for his 5th here. Elkins should be the better striker here and he is the much better wrestler of the two as well. Hall is tricky though and his takedowns or submission attempts wouldn’t be coming from traditional takedowns, so I am not sure the wrestling will matter a lot here. Elkins is going to look to keep this fight on the feet and Hall is going to be looking for limbs. I would not want to bet this fight because I don’t like putting my money on a guy who is looking for 1 thing, but I think that 1 thing (heel hook) is the most likely outcome in this fight unfortunately. I am going to pick Hall here in round 1 but I will hope that I am wrong honestly and we see a bit more actual fighting from him in this matchup.
This is not one of my favorite fights to target but Ryan Hall is my preferred play. I don’t see Elkins having a big upside in this matchup because I don’t see him getting a KO or racking up takedowns. If he wins, it will likely be low scoring. If Hall wins, he could score 90-95 points in a first round heel hook win. He has the upside if he can win in round 1, but if he gets out of that round this fight probably won’t be on the optimal. The only issue for me is that I am picking him in round 1 so I feel like I have to throw him into lineups. I think he is an OK cash play, but I prefer him more for GPPs and purely for that 90-point win bonus. Elkins will be a full fade for me this week.
Winner – Ryan Hall via 1st round Submission
Juliana Pena $9,000 vs Nicco Montano $7,200
Julianna Pena
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Sikjitsu
From: Washington
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 2 Years 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -185
This is an odd matchup. Both fighters are coming off long layoffs, for different reasons. Julianna Pena hasn’t fought since January of 2017. She had worked her way up to a title eliminator fight against Valentina Shevchenko but lost via armbar. She then took time off due to a pregnancy but is now ready to get back in the octagon. Pena is a mauler, and a strong grappler. Her striking on the feet though, is poor. She is very stiff & just plods forward in a straight line. She doesn’t move her head & can eat clean punches. She is very wild with her punches, throwing herself off balance at times. She will use her jab to start hook combinations to crash the distance. She will throw left hook, right hook combinations, along with left hook, overhand rights combinations. She will throw wild round kicks to all parts of the body but doesn’t set them up well. Pena’s whole striking game is to get ahold of opponents & grapple. She throws hard, but her striking is just undeveloped & wild. I will say I have been watching some fights from her Instagram & she looks to have crisper hand combinations on the pads. If she can refine some of that technique, she could be much more effective as a boxer grappler. Pena has 3 TKO’s & been finished one time by TKO.
Pena is a good grappler. She is tenacious & a great scrambler. She is strong in the clinch & digs nice underhooks. She will control the position & land knees to the body. She has very good trip takedowns in the clinch. She has nice throws in that position also & is very physical for the division. Pena is a pressure fighter in top position. She likes to rain down nice elbows & forearms from inside opponent’s guards. She will pressure pass to side control where she likes to work. She will look for the crucifix position and take the back if given the opportunity. She has good back takes & control. She will flatten opponents out & finish with ground & pound. She has three rear naked choke victories. Her ground & pound comes early & often, and she is relentless. She has 3 TKO’s all via ground & pound. In her last match, she was armbarred when inside Valentina Shevchenko’s guard. She can get taken down herself & has been taken down in a lot of her UFC fights. Jessica Eye, Cat Zingano, & Valentina Shevchenko all had top position for multiple minutes. She will get too aggressive going for takedowns & end up on her own back. She also throws a lot of unset up kicks & knees in the clinch that she can get taken down off of as well. Pena can be controlled & held down if you pass her guard, but she is threatening. If fighters are inside her guard, she has very nice triangles & armbars. She will roll for leg locks & creates scrambles well. She has great cardio & usually will win the scrambles & be effective on top. Pena has 5 submissions in her career & has been submitted one time. She is a badass chick & won’t quit. There is a lot of question marks here regarding Pena though. She is coming off her first loss since 2013, a long layoff & a pregnancy. It’s hard to gauge in what type of shape she will come in & if she would have sharpened her skills or not over the layoff. She will be the bigger fighter most likely & want to get it to the mat. If she can use her punches to get inside & get ahold of Montano, she should be much physically stronger. I think she will be able to land takedowns in the clinch, and control on top. I think she will be able to land punches with her wild style & is more explosive & hits harder than Montano. On top, she just has to worry about control & landing enough damage to stay on top. I think Montano will be hard to finish, and Pena should play it safe in this comeback fight.
Nicco Montano
Age: 30
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: 65”
Gym: Jackson’s MMA Acoma
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +160
Nicco Montano hasn’t fought in nearly two years either. The last time we same Nicco in the cage, she was getting the belt wrapped around her waist. She became the first Female FLW champion in UFC history defeating Roxanne Modafferi. Since then, things haven’t gone as planned. She had several injuries she wanted to heal up that kept delaying a grudge match for the title with Valentina Shevchenko. They had the fight scheduled, but Montano could not make weight & is now fighting at 135 lbs. She was then subsequently flagged by USADA, and that’s why she’s had such a long layoff. She was originally scheduled to face Sara McMann, but Julianna Pena, a similar opponent is stepping in on short notice. Montano is a much more technical striker. She has pretty good lateral movement. She has solid feints & side step movement going forward to create new angles. She will switch stances, but overall her striking is still developing. She has a nice jab & good left hook. She will crash the distance with one-twos. She is very fluid with her kicking technique. She has pretty nasty inside leg & body kicks. She will throw nice front kicks to the body as well. She will throw a round kick to the body to jab combination. She also likes to finish combos with leg kicks. She does not handle pressure well. She will try to parry punches & is decent at it but strikes get through. She can throw her kicks without setting them up at times & get countered clean. She doesn’t have big power & fighters seem to be willing to walk through her shots. She has 2 TKO’s. She is scrappy & has never been finished.
Montano is not a bad grappler. She is stronger than she looks & good in the clinch. She has very nice knees to the body & elbows to the head. She also has solid takedown defense against the cage & makes opponents pay with shots. She has good get-ups and will sweep to top position. She has beaten a lot of grapplers in her run through TUF, such as Roxanne Modafferi, Montana Delarosa and Lauren Murphy. She was able to largely defend all their takedowns & actually win the grappling. She has a good wrestling game she can rely on. She catches kicks well and has a good double leg takedown. In top position she isn’t bad, she likes to work from half guard & land elbows & forearms. She will stay in opponent’s guards & land hammerfists & short punches. She has good submission defense. She isn’t a submission threat & I doubt she will get one in this match. She isn’t bad off her back though. She will bring her guard high & attack with triangles while looking for elbows. She is hard to hold down & will usually work back to her feet. She is going to need to go forward, go first & use her striking here. Making Pena walk into her punches & throw with bad intentions. She needs to make Pena pay when she’s in the clinch with knees & elbows, and not allow easy takedowns. If she does get taken down, she needs to try to get right back up & make Pena work. Montano has very good cardio. She will be better on the feet most likely, and we have to see if she’s made improvements.
Nicco Montano is making her return after being stripped of the championship belt last year and Pena is making her return after childbirth and a 2.5-year layoff. There are a lot of unknowns here, but I do think Nicco is the better striker and Pena is the better wrestler/grappler. Pena should be able to control where this fight takes place and I think that is why she is the favorite here. However, she took this fight on short notice and we are judging her from what we saw over 2.5 years ago before she had her world changed by giving birth. With all the unknowns here, I am going to say this is a dog or pass fight on the betting line. I wanted to pick Montano out right here, but I do think the wrestling from Pena could win at least 2 rounds so I am going to pick her to get a close split decision in this bout but not with confidence.
On DraftKings, Montano is my preferred play. She did score 158 points in her 1st UFC fight but that was 5-rounds and against an easier opponent to score DK points against. I think that number next to her name will boost up her ownership, but I like that she showed that kind of volume and at $7.2k we don’t need 158 DK points. If she wins this fight I think she surely pays off her salary and I like targeting against the ring rust of Pena here. I would be more interested in Pena if we still knew she has the strong wrestling she used to. The unknowns don’t interest me as much at $9k here though so that is why Nicco is my preferred play and I probably won’t be able to afford a lot of Pena. I do like that she will be wanting to grapple, I just don’t know what to expect from her and her price tag is a lot to pay. She is a GPP only play if anyone wants to take the risk, but Montano is solid for GPPs as well and she is one of the better cash punts on the card IMO.
Winner – Juliana Pena via Unanimous Decision
Sheymon Moraes $8,400 vs Andre Fili $7,800
Sheymon Moraes
Age: 28
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: Blackhouse MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 101
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -115
Sheymon Moraes had his two-fight win streak snapped in his last match. He fought a big-time prospect in Sodiq Yusuff, dropping a back & forth decision. Moraes has heavy leg kicks & nice jabs. He has fast one-twos. He has a nasty straight-right hand, left hook combination. He will throw a left hook, right straight combination. He throws everything into his left hook at times & can get out of position, but if it lands, it’s probably good night. He dropped Julio Arce with his straight-right hand & he has big power in his shots. He has nice one-twos to the body. He has nasty switch kicks to the body & head. He will throw nice front kicks to the body & head. He throws nice standing elbows with both arms, and overall is a dangerous guy. He isn’t very high output and can get out volumed over three rounds. He does a decent job of walking opponents into shots and counter punching, but he is a bit flat footed and slows as the fight goes on. He has big power with 5 KO/TKO’s in 10 wins.
Sheymon Moraes has struggled with grapplers over his career & has been submitted multiple times. he is good in the clinch offensively. He does a good job landing knees to the body and nice short elbows. He has strong knees in the Muay Thai clinch. He can be controlled against the fence & Julio Arce was able to take his back from standing position. He allows fighters to get in on body locks & double legs. He is pretty good off his back he has good triangles and leg locks. He has improved his takedown defense & is much better than he was earlier in his career. Moraes has shown some nice ground & pound. He does a good job of stacking the legs & coming down with big straight punches & hammer fists. When he can get into a dominant position & posture up he will land heavy shots. He isn’t a submission threat from top position & has zero career submissions. He has been submitted twice himself, but against elite competition in Marlon Moraes, and Zabit Magomedsharipov. Moraes tends to slow down majorly in fights & was almost finished in round three against Matt Sayles. It was 1-1 in his last match going to the third & he lost it.
Andre Fili
Age: 29
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 74”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: California
UFC Record: 7-5
Fight Matrix: 23
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -105
Andre Fili looked great in defeating Myles Jury in his last performance. It was a dominant win. Fili is the veteran in this spot and needs to get going now if he ever wants a title shot. Fili is a rangy striker. He has a nice jab & good straight-right hand. He will throw hard inside leg kicks, body kicks, & head kicks. He will fake the jab & throw an overhand right. He is good at darting in with a straight punch & angling off immediately. He is always trying to walk opponents into straight punches. He will throw a jab, uppercut combination. He has fairly good movement, but he isn’t the most athletic fighter and opponents can cut him off. He isn’t the fastest with his hand speed & opponents can counter with straight punches. Fili is still durable & will eat shots no problem. He Is dangerous with kicks himself and has 8 KO/TKO finishes. He has been KO/TKO’d twice in his career.
Andre Fili is improving as a grappler, and actually has a really nice double leg. He has great timing on it & explodes in quickly. He doesn’t have the best top control, but he will try to jump on the back when opponents try to stand up. He is long & it gives him an advantage in the clinch. He will land nice knees to the head & body and is very hard to takedown. He does a good job of framing and throwing knees to the body. On top, he isn’t great, he just really holds position. His takedown defense has looked very good recently, he stuffed all of Denis Bermudez’s takedowns. He was able to jump on Michael Johnson’s back and almost locked in a rear naked choke. He isn’t a big submission threat with just 3 in his career. He has been submitted twice himself. Fili has solid cardio & will push through fatigue to get the win.
This is one of my favorite fights on the card. Both of these guys are exciting strikers and we could see a fun kickboxing fight here. I think Moraes has the better overall striking and is more likely to get a knockout on the feet as well. He is the more technical striker and he throws with more power, but Fili is the more active striker and I do expect him to be the guy landing more shots. So, on the feet it will depend on if the judges award it to the volume or to the harder shots. However, if Fili is smart, he will look for takedowns in this fight because that is where his biggest edge is. He could even steal close rounds with a takedown in the last seconds. I think on the ground Fili is a solid 2/1 favorite in this match, so I will take him as the underdog here and hope he comes in with a smart game plan. He is a Team Alpha Male fighter and they train there in Sac-town, so he will have the crowd on his side as well in this spot.
I am on the dog here, so he is my preferred play on DraftKings. I also think that if he wins it is likely through a more grappling based game plan. If Fili wins this fight I think he scores over 10x and maybe has a chance at hitting the optimal lineup. I also think Sheymon is live for a knockout, so he is in play as well, but I would only use him in GPPs. The betting value is now on Fili’s side and it will be easier for him to get 10x+ in a win so I am fine with using him in cash along with GPPs. I think we are almost needing Sheymon to get a knockout for him to have a chance at scoring highly though because he doesn’t strike at a high pace and he doesn’t go for takedowns either. That will limit my exposure to Sheymon but I do want to be overweight on Fili.
Winner – Andre Fili via Unanimous Decision
Mike Rodriquez $9,600 vs John Allan $6,800
Mike Rodriguez
Age: 30
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 82.5”
Gym: Lauzon MMA
From: Massachussetts
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 88
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -450
Mike Rodriguez will be looking to build off an awesome KO & his first UFC win in his last fight. He dusted Adam Milstead in the first round. At 6’4 with an 82.5” reach & knockout power, he looks like a solid prospect. He is a great athlete. He likes to use a lot of oblique kicks to the legs, and front kicks to the body. He has powerful round kicks to the legs, he took Devin Clark off his feet with a leg kick. He has a nice jab and fast, straight-right hand. He doesn’t throw much in combination, and I feel he is nervous to let strikes go in close range for fear of being taken down. He has a good right hook, and a nasty round and front kicks to the body. In space he is very dangerous. He will throw the front kick to the face, and he closes the distance with very nice jump knees. He dropped and finished his opponent on DWCS with a jump knee. He needs to improve staying at his range after he throws, and not getting so close where his opponent can tie up with him. Rodriguez has 7 KO/TKO’s in 9 wins. He has a good chin, and never has been finished by strikes.
Rodriguez is improving as a grappler and showed that against Devin Clark. He still gets too close to opponents on the feet and allows them to get inside and close the distance or duck under and take him down. He used to be extremely easy to takedown, but in his fight against Clark he showed improved takedown defense against the cage. He was using an underhook to deny the attempt and was landing nice short knees to the body. He was trapping the wrist of his opponent and throwing knees and elbows. He can be taken down with reactive double legs, but he’s gotten better at using the cage to return to his feet. He showed a nice sprawl in space, and attacks with Travis Browne elbows to the head. He can’t allow himself to get backed up near the cage in this match, because he can be controlled there, and Allan has good combos. Rodriguez needs to keep the distance and use jabs, straight punches and kicks. Rodriguez has big power & if he lands clean on fighters they usually drop. He needs to avoid trading with Allan & keep him at kicking range.
John Allan
Age: 26
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Chute Boxe
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 146
Last Fought: 2 Weeks
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +360
John Allan is stepping in on short notice here. The veteran from Brazil is coming off a victory just over 2 weeks ago. He did lose to Vinicius Moreira on the DWCS in 2018. We’ve seen how Mamute has performed in the UFC, so that is a little bit alarming. Allan is a big, athletic fighter. He usually has a size & reach advantage over his opponent, but that won’t be the case here. Allan is going to be at a 7.5” reach disadvantage. Allan likes to pressure opponents & has good cardio. Allan’s last win was very impressive & probably the best performance of his career. He is fast in & out with solid feints. Allan throws heavy low kicks, both inside & outside to compliment a fast jab. Allan will try to back opponents to the cage, work his jab, and combinations off it. He will throw jab, overhand rights, and then throw big hooks in combination. He throws fast punches in the pocket. He can overextend on shots & leaves himself open to be countered, but hits hard. When opponents push him backwards, he can look uncomfortable, but he will throw hard counters to try to back fighters off. He has switched stances a lot in previous fights, but in his last match he didn’t at all. He likes to kick more from southpaw. He has fast round kicks to the legs, body & head. He will usually just flick the kicks up without much power, but he will mix in power kicks. He will mix elbows into his attacks. He looks like a very strong guy & hard to back up. He trains at Chute Boxe & looks to like to brawl like most of the fighters from that camp do. If Allan is in good shape, this actually has the makings of a good fight. He will have to be able to eat the power of Rodriguez & get inside. In this fight Allan shouldn’t have to worry about wrestling though. Allan has 8 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Allan is not a good wrestler. He allows fighters to get in on his legs easily with traditional wrestling shots. He also is easy to get taken down against the cage. He will look for takedowns himself & I imagine he will in this match. He will use his punches to crash the distance and try to clinch up against the cage. His takedowns really aren’t great. When he gets on top, he doesn’t seem like he likes to pass the guard much. He will just stay inside of opponent’s guards & land short punches and elbows. He was submitted with a triangle vs Moreira inside of Moreira’s guard. He will search for arm triangles. Allan has 3 submissions but has been submitted 4 times. He isn’t in the quick tap club though & has a lot of heart. He survived a nearly fully locked in armbar against Vinicius Moreira. He gives his back when he tries to stand up. In this fight, I don’t think he will have to worry about much grappling. He may look for wrestling if he’s struggling badly on the feet, but I think he will come to bang. I see Allan trying to go forward, throw leg kicks & force Rodriguez to trade. Rodriguez is heavy on his lead leg & if Allan can land some kicks early that limit Rodriguez’s movement it could become his fight to lose. If he can back Rodriguez up & force him to trade he definitely has a chance to land a combination that hurts Rodriguez.
Allan will be making his UFC debut here on short notice as the biggest underdog on the card. He was on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series about a year ago, but he lost to a 2nd round submission and the guy who beat him has gone on to lose his 2 UFC fights. So, on paper, this is not a good look for Allen. Mike Rodriguez is a dangerous striker, and this is a fight I expect to play out on the feet. I think this is going to come down to if Allen can land that big punch. He is a big, powerful guy, and it could only take one big shot for him to pull off the upset. Maybe he gets takedowns and lands some ground and pound as well. Other than that, I think Rodriquez is better than him everywhere and this betting line looks about right to me. I think he gets a knockout in the 1st or 2nd round here.
These guys are both big dudes and could knock the other out. That is the only reason I am interested from a DraftKings perspective. Rodriguez is the most expensive fighter on the card, so he has to get a KO just to not kill your lineup. Allan just isn’t very good but if he wins then it’s probably by a KO and if that happens then he is probably on the nuts. So, this is a weird one. I would say target each side small if at all, but I am not against fading this fight and hoping Rodriguez doesn’t get a round 1 KO. There is no way I would touch this fight in cash, so I would say only target it based on how confident you are in that round 1 KO or that upset KO. With 10 lineups, I would probably fade the fight or use Mike in maybe 1. With 20, maybe I go 2 Mike and 1 Allan. I am not sure yet, but I won’t be starting any lineups with this fight and it is more so one of the fights that if it fits I will think about using it. Rodriguez is my preferred play though and his -180 ITD line makes me think he probably does score well but there is no round 1 prop yet and that is when we would need that finish at his price.
Winner – Mike Rodriguez via 2nd round (T)KO
Marvin Vettori $8,600 vs Cezar Ferreira $7,600
Marvin Vettori
Age: 25
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Italy
UFC Record: 2-2-1
Fight Matrix: 78
Last Fought: 1 Year 3 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -150
Marvin Vettori will finally be making the walk to the octagon after a USADA suspension. He is coming off of a split decision loss to Israel Adesanya but hasn’t fought since April 2018. At only 25 years old he should come back & be ready to perform in my opinion. He is big and bulky for the division and likes to close distance and make the fight in close quarters. He has okay striking, he will attack with lead uppercuts and hook combinations, and has some decent hand speed. Vettori doesn’t throw a ton of kicks, but he will throw a few inside leg kicks and body kicks. Against Omari Akhmedov, he was doing a solid job of countering in the pocket, but he was getting hit with wide hooks, and looked uncomfortable striking going backwards. He has good step-in knees that halt opponents forward momentum. He is usually more of a striker in the cage, but he still has some defensive deficiencies. He keeps his left hand very low and was getting tagged with right hands against Omari. He also likes to lunge in from the outside with shots and jut his chin out making him available to counter. He ducks his head as well making him susceptible to the uppercut. Vettori has a great chin, he was in a war in his last fight with Adesanya and took a ton of big shots. He got his leg beaten up as well. He definitely won’t quit or back down. Vettori really hasn’t shown great power though with just two TKO victories. He has never been finished with strikes.
Vettori was more of a striker when he we last saw him, but he is well-rounded. Vettori got a couple takedowns against Miranda off catching kicks but he really isn’t someone that will shoot in the open mat. He prefers to close the distance against the cage & take opponents down from there. He has good body locks & double leg takedowns. On top, he has good ground and pound. He is aggressive when he gets top position and will rain down shots. He likes to take the back & get rear naked chokes. He was able to defend the takedown attempts of black belt Antonio Carlos Jr, and even beat him up from top position. That has to give him some confidence in swimming on the ground with Ferreira. He has solid takedown defense & will counter takedowns with kimura attempts. He is active looking for submissions off his back, but if he’s taken down by Ferreira he just needs to worry about staying calm & getting up. Vettori has 8 career submissions & has never been finished.
Cezar Ferreira
Age: 34
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 78”
Gym: MMA Masters
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 9-5
Fight Matrix: 42
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +130
Cezar Ferreira had his two-fight winning streak snapped in his last outing. He dropped a decision to upstart Ian Heinisch. Ferreira needs a win here to stay relevant in the division. A loss would have a huge impact on his career. Mutante came into the UFC a very dangerous striker with a nasty kicking game, but after getting knocked out a few times he changed his style to be much more about defense timing and movement. He times a very good straight-right and will land hard body kicks. He uses a lot of movement and does a great job of not getting his back against the cage. Ferreira does a good job of using kicks to stop you from getting in range. He will throw nice kicks to the legs and the body. He has a decent check right hook. He can get cracked with left hooks and straights if you time him circling away. He has not been knocked out in his last 6 fights, but his chin is still suspect. He has been KO/TKO’d 4 times. Ferreira isn’t a big knockout threat with just two in his career.
Ferreira is an excellent grappler, a strong wrestler & black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He has great timing on his double legs and will get a couple a round to try to steal time and seal the round. He has big power in his drive on his takedowns and even if he shoots a bad shot he can still usually finish it. Ferreira has solid foot sweep takedowns in the clinch and does a good job of dragging opponents down and trying to take the back. He can get outhustled at times in the clinch and grappling exchanges, but you have to be good enough to scramble with Ferreira. Even against Ian Heinisch he was able to score several takedowns. He isn’t extremely active on top and will stay in opponent’s guards and land small punches and elbows. He has a solid arm triangle. He had a nice guillotine and will dive on it if he feels he could get it. He can get clipped exiting and entering the clinch. Ferreira has solid cardio and can use a solid game plan for all three rounds but can slow down if he’s pushed. He has had many difficult moments in MMA and has learned and improved from them. He will need to bounce back again against Vettori here.
This fight will depend on where it takes place. If it stays on the feet, Vettori should win, and if Ferreira can get it to the ground, he should win. I think the ground game of Ferreira is a bigger edge than the striking game of Vettori here too. I think Cezar can keep this fight close but win rounds by getting takedowns. If he can get takedowns I think he will be able to keep top control and possibly lock up a submission. He could also gas himself out with takedowns and Vettori could take over late and possibly finish. If Vettori can stuff takedowns early that could ruin the confidence of Cezar and boost his own and he could start picking him apart in the striking game. I am not sure how this fight plays out, but I think the biggest edge of the fight is the ground game from Cezar and with him being the underdog that makes me want to pick him to win. I think this is closer to a 50/50 fight, so I will side with the dog and pick Cezar by submission or decision.
Cezar is my preferred play here because he is another dog I like to win. If he wins it is likely through grappling and he is live for a submission as well. I think he has one of the higher ceilings for the dogs I am picking so he is a guy I will look to be overweight on for GPPs. He is fine for cash as well, but I like other dogs more in that format. Vettori is an interesting GPP play too because he can knock Cezar out in any round and he is not too highly priced where a late KO kicks him off the optimal. I am going to roster both sides of this fight, but I will be higher on Cezar. I am guessing Cezar will be close to the 30% range for me but Vettori maybe 20%. I do think around half of my lineups have this fight though and both guys have clear paths to scoring highly.
Winner – Cezar Ferreira via Unanimous Decision
Karl Roberson $9,100 vs Wellington Turman $7,100
Karl Roberson
Age: 28
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Killer B Combat Sports
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 61
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -230
Karl Roberson will be back in his optimal weight class for this fight. He took a short notice fight up a weight class against a legend in Glover Teixeira in his last match. He almost got the knockout, but Glover was able to survive & get the submission shortly thereafter. Roberson has had mixed success at 2-2 in the UFC & needs a statement win against a newcomer here. Roberson is very athletic & a good prospect. He is very fast & has a nice straight-left hand. He has a nasty counter left hook. His straight-left hand keeps opponents at bay & and he’s able to potshot fighters from the outside. He has strong leg kicks & body kicks. He will brawl at times & he has an issue with leaning back & returning, relying heavily on speed. He will throw uppercuts in close range & can get a bit wild closing the distance at times. He can also back up a bit awkwardly when he’s defending blitzes. He needs to land & angle off, use a lot of movement & not stand in front of opponents. He has big power, but in his last fight Jack Marshman ate some clean shots & survived all three, so I’m not sure if he will have the power to put out Turman with one punch. He doesn’t throw many combinations & he should look to improve that because I feel if he can land a second shot after his right hand, he can put fighters out more consistently. Roberson has 2 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Roberson is improving his grappling immensely. He uses well-timed double legs & shows a lot of strength & explosion getting easy slams right into side control. On top, he has good ground & pound elbows and transitions to mount landing shots there as well. He has good top control. He has shown to be very dangerous in the clinch. He has wicked knees to the body & head and nasty elbows. He finished Ryan Spann in less than a minute with Travis Browne elbows while defending the takedown. Against Glover Teixeira he hurt him with the same elbows very badly but couldn’t finish Glover. He was also able to take the back & submit Darren Stewart, so he has shown some ability on the ground. He still needs work off his back. He has been on his back twice in the UFC & both times he was finished via arm triangle. Both of those matches were against black belts. Roberson has 3 submissions & been submitted two times.
Wellington Turman
Age: 22
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: N/A
Gym: Gile Ribeiro Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 106
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +190
Wellington Turman is only 22 years old but already has fought 17 times. He has a record of 15-2. This will be Wellington’s first fight outside of Brazil. Turman isn’t very technical & is very wild. He has a decent one-two, but really relies on blitz attacks. He will leap in with nice left hooks & overhand rights. He will throw kicks after he punches, like left hooks into head kicks. He has nice body kicks also, but they don’t look super powerful. He looks very open & hittable to me. His defense is lacking & relies on offense to hide his flaws. Against a guy like Karl Roberson I would really try to get it to the mat. He just isn’t as crisp or fluid with his striking as Roberson. Turman doesn’t really have big power with only 4 career knockouts. He has never been finished.
Turman is much more dangerous on the mat & has solid submissions. He isn’t a great wrestler, but he’s physical in the clinch & can muscle opponents to the mat. He likes to circle to the back & get rear naked chokes. He has a good squeeze & can lock them in without any hooks in. He can get shucked off the back due to that & I’ve seen opponents control him in his guard. He will throw up some submissions, but he’s not nearly as dangerous off his back. He has a nice guillotine also, but usually sets it up from standing or top position. Turman has 7 rear naked chokes. If he gets top position he will have a good chance to finish the match. He has 7 submissions & has never been finished.
Turman is making his UFC debut here on close to a months’ notice due to another fighter pulling out. He is 22 years old with a 15-2 record on the Brazil regional scene. He looks like a fairly well-rounded fighter and at his age he should improve between each fight. I do expect for him to want to get this fight to the mat though. Roberson is the better striker and the much more dangerous kickboxer. If this fight stays standing, then I like Roberson by KO or 30-27 decision. Turman can make this fight interesting though if he can get it to the ground or against the cage. I am not sure if he has the ability to control where this fight takes place, but I do think he is a live underdog if he can get Octagon control. Roberson is decent on the ground himself though and I think he has the strength to stuff takedowns, so I will pick him to win a judge’s decision here.
Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is -195 and that is my favorite reason to target this fight. Both guys can finish and possibly even in round 1. For that reason, both are in play for GPPs. I think Roberson is ok for cash games, but he does have a lower floor so it’s a bit risky. I think Roberson is more likely to end up on the optimal lineup with a 1st round KO, but I am not sure how heavily exposed I want to be on this fight. I have a feeling both sides could gain some ownership and I don’t think I want to get leverage on both sides. I might go underweight to this fight myself but if I am making 20 lineups I do want at least 1 of each guy. Roberson has one of the better chances at a KO on the card and he is much better on the feet, so it could happen early. If Turman can get this fight to the ground, he could get a finish in any round as well, and as cheap as he is that would put him in play for that $25k. I don’t want to invest heavy into either guy here, but I am too afraid to fade it, so I would say I have 1-2 Roberson and 1 Turman if I was making 10 lineups this weekend.
Winner – Karl Roberson via Unanimous Decision
Mirsad Bektic $8,800 vs Josh Emmett $7,400
Mirsad Bektic
Age: 28
Height: 5’8
Weight: 146
Reach: 70”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: Bosnia
UFC Record: 6-1
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -160
Mirsad Bektic is a very good prospect at 145. He is well-rounded on the feet and the ground. He is athletic, has good movement and very technically sound striking. He has very nice in & out movement, with solid hand & foot speed. He walks opponents down & likes to be the fighter going forward. He will work off the jab & has a nice one-two combination. He will throw jab, right hooks or jab, overhand rights if he is in close range. He will attack the body occasionally with the one-two. He likes to throw round kicks to the body & legs. He doesn’t throw them super often, but when they connect they’re powerful. When he is pressured he looks very uncomfortable. Even if he has a massive speed advantage & winning the striking he doesn’t look fluid at times. When opponents close the distance on him, he can tend to lean back instead of moving his feet, along with force takedown attempts. Most of the time he can bail himself out with the takedowns, but he leaves himself vulnerable to counters along with gassing out. Bektic needs to get a few things on the feet he knows will be effective & just work those. He has to show growth & more comfortability on the feet. Bektic has 6 KO/TKO’s & definitely packs power. He has only been finished one time by KO but has a questionable chin. He doesn’t take shots well & that could be part of his issues with the standup.
Mirsad Bektic is one of the best grapplers in the division. He is extremely physical and has excellent explosiveness. He sets his shots up well with punches & has great blast double legs. He will drive through on singles also, along with working for cage control. He will jam opponents against the fence and go to work from there, landing short shots & winning the round. He was able to control Ricardo Lamas against the cage for large portions of his last fight. When he gets on top he is excellent. He has strong top control & likes to get to half guard or side control where he will posture up & do damage. He has nasty ground & pound and will really batter opponents. We saw that when he put a beating from top position on Darren Elkins. He will look to take the back & has two career rear naked chokes. Bektic has 3 career submissions, but one was due to punches. He has never been finished by submission & was dominating the one fight he lost in his career. Bektic can force the wrestling too much at times, putting himself in positions to potentially be submitted or get tired. When he fought Elkins, he let out so much output that he gassed himself out & in round 3 Elkins took him out. Bektic needs to start fixing up some of these parts of his game as he gets older now. He has all the technical skills & athleticism, it’s all up to game plan & mentality now. He is training at Tristar which should help with that. If Bektic mixes it up & plays his game, he could potentially beat anyone in the division.
Josh Emmett
Age: 34
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: California
UFC Record: 5-2
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds +140
Josh Emmett is an explosive fighter with big knockout power. He is fairly light on his feet & his movement isn’t bad. He can slip & rip in the pocket fairly well. He doesn’t use a lot of set ups & his striking revolves mainly on his overhand & straight right. He uses a lot of big movements to close the distance. He will throw a one-two both to the body & head to an overhand right. He will throw a right hook to the body to an overhand right to the head. He will throw occasional leg & body kicks. He will throw switch kicks & rear leg round kicks to the head. He likes to throw flying knees & jumping kicks. He is fast himself & if you stay inside with him, he can close the distance quickly with powerful combinations. He is better when opponents walk him down & he can move & explode into shots. He landed a brutal left hook knockout against Ricardo Lamas, and dropped Jeremy Stephens with a right hook, and deaded Michael Johnson in his last fight. If you stay in the danger zone with him he can put you out. He doesn’t have the fastest feet, and when he goes first he can be very obvious. He can struggle to change up his game & deal with movement. Emmett has 5 KO/TKO’s and has only been finished once.
Josh Emmett is a very physically, strong guy. He is a decent wrestler, although we have seen little of it in the UFC. He showed he can get double leg takedowns vs Scott Holtzman but could not hold position very well and even got swept a couple of times. He is going to have to have his takedown defense on point this match. This is really one of the first active wrestlers he’s fought in the UFC. He is solid off his back, attacking and getting back up, but we haven’t seen much. I am sure he has that Alpha Male guillotine. He has good cardio and pushes a pace at the end of the fight. He isn’t a big submission fighter & I haven’t seen much of him on top. He has two career submissions.
I’m on Bektic in this one. I do think it’s a close matchup stylistically and Emmett can probably get the better of the striking department. I think Emmett is more likely to get a KO on the feet and if he can make it a 15-minute striking match then he could maybe win a decision there as well. I don’t see this fight staying on the feet though and I think it will be Bektic who is having more success in the wrestling. I also think he will get this fight against the cage a lot and fight there instead of in space. I expect Bektic to be the bully in this fight and not give Emmett a lot of space to work his game. I think my biggest worry would be that he wins the first 1.5 rounds, then begins to gas and Emmett takes over late. Aside from that, I think Bektic should get his hand raised here and I think he can win all 3 rounds.
Bektic is my preferred play here because of the pace and wrestling he has showed us in the past. That style is definitely in his game and he has that 100+ point upside, but this is a tougher matchup for him to get there. Emmett is going to be tougher to take down and he is the better overall striker. It won’t be as easy to get there, but he can still do it. His best path to victory is using that pace and wrestling so if he wins I do think he scores well. Maybe he just doesn’t have the 120+ upside we have seen from him before. Emmett is very in play as well. He is playable in all formats because I don’t see him getting finished, so he does have a floor, but he also has 100+ upside. He can knock out anybody in the division and at his price if he gets a KO he will compete for the top lineup. I will have probably twice as much Bektic in my personal lineups, but Emmett will make my pool and if you want to be higher on him that is fine as well.
Winner – Mirsad Bektic via Unanimous Decision
Ricky Simon $9,300 vs Urijah Faber $6,900
Ricky Simon
Age: 26
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: Gracie Barra Portland
From: Washington
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 15
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -380
Ricky Simon has a solid jab, and good straight-right hand. He has a hard-left hook and will throw a left hook, straight-right hand combination. He will attack the body with big left hooks & has nice rear knees to the body. He will close distance with a left hook, left uppercut, left straight combination, and uses his lead hand a lot. He has decent head movement after he throws his first shot. He will land his jab or a straight, move his head off center line, and then will dig to the body. He will throw nice spinning backfists. He has decent kicks. He will throw nice inside/outside leg kicks. He has good body kicks and will throw the occasional head kick. When he backs fighters up near the cage he will get creative with his striking, throwing things such as spinning back elbows & flying knees. He will throw lead elbows. He is hittable at times because he prefers to stay in the pocket, use head movement & return instead of using footwork to evade. In his one loss he was rocked badly with a shot prior to being finished by submission. He has gotten rocked in his last two fights as well, but he is extremely well conditioned with tremendous recoverability. He has never been finished by strikes. He doesn’t have huge knockout power, but he is still dangerous with 5 KO/TKO’s in 14 wins.
Simon is a tremendous wrestler and was a great high school wrestler. He could have gone to college for wrestling, but he elected to do MMA instead. He is still very wrestling centric in his style. He does a great job of closing the distance, getting double underhooks & immediately dumping opponents. He has a nasty double leg & he will elevate fighters and move directly into side control. The way he ducks under for his takedowns are great & he disguises them very well with strikes. He will shoot with the head on the outside on the double leg, but he is diligent to get his head out and not get caught in a guillotine. He can wrestle all day & has an endless gas tank. He does a great job of jumping on the back after he gets double legs when opponents stand up. He does a good job of turking the legs when he gets opponents to the mat and tries to slide directly into mount or take the back. He has hard ground & pound, and he will throw for the finish if he sees opponents wilting. His top control isn’t elite, but he can wrestle all day, continue to stay attached and make it a miserable night. His takedown defense is good & he is even harder to hold down. He was able to defend all the takedown attempts of Rani Yahya. He was taken down a few times by Merab Dvalishvili, but he is a great scrambler and hard to hold down. He does a great job of giving his back to stand up & then shucking his opponents off the back with explosion. He has top notch cardio & has only been submitted one time. He was dropped & hurt prior to the submission also and is very hard to catch on the ground. Simon isn’t a big submission threat with only two in his career.
Uriah Faber
Age: 40
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: California
UFC Record: 10-6
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 2 Years 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +315
Uriah Faber is returning here at 40 years old. Faber is an athletic boxer wrestler with submission skills. He utilizes a low stance where he can explode into an overhand or takedown attempt. Faber will flick his lead hand out there with range finding jabs, but really, he is just looking to set up the right hand. He will feint & throw straight-rights or right hooks, but his trademark is the overhand right. He will fake the takedown & almost run into the overhand, it’s tricky & powerful. He will also do the same move with rear uppercuts. He will land inside, outside leg kicks, along with front kicks to the body. Faber’s striking game is really all set up by his wrestling feints. If opponents can figure out when he’s going to feint & when he’s going to shoot, they can hit him with hard, flush counters as he tries to enter. That was an issue for him repeatedly in the Dominic Cruz fight. Faber holds his hands low, but he is fast & has good head movement. The issue with that is at older age will it still be the same? One of his main issues has been leg kicks. He has been hurt with kicks his whole career & has never bothered to check them. Faber has always been extremely tough & you won’t get him out of there with leg kicks most likely. He has been KO/TKO’d just 3 times in over 40 fights. Faber has 9 KO/TKO’s but none since 2007.
Uriah Faber is a former college wrestler & a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He has been competing in Jiu-Jitsu competitions since he retired to stay active & his best chance at a win is a submission to me. He used to be extremely fast closing the distance with punches he would use to create takedown entries. He has extremely fast blast doubles & good body lock trips. He is relentless & a good scrambler. On top, he has good ground & pound elbows. When he can posture up he will put big power into the elbows. Faber is always looking to take the back or jump on his guillotine & all his submissions have come from those two moves. Faber is very hard to take & hold down, and I can’t remember many people being able to do it. Faber has 17 submissions in his career. He has never been submitted. Faber has always had notoriously good cardio, but it’s hard to say he will have that off the layoff.
These fights take place in Sacramento, there is no better card for Urijah Faber to make his comeback from retirement. The California Kid retired over 2.5 years ago and apparently has the itch to get back. He still looks in great shape, but I think he chose a bad matchup for his comeback fight. I have been high on Simon since he joined the UFC and he has some big wins since then. A couple more and he could even be contending for a title. A win over Faber would be huge for his resume and his fan base. On the feet, I think this fight will be fairly close, but I see the overall pace from Simon being too much for Faber here. I think he will be the fighter controlling where the fight takes place and I would imagine he looks to mix in multiple takedowns each round. Faber could always catch a neck on one of those takedown attempts but if he doesn’t then I think Simon is going to be the better wrestler in this match. I also don’t see Faber being able to get a KO here, so he is going to need to make it a close enough fight to get a hometown decision. With the pace Simon sets, I do think he is going to win this fight, but I would feel more confident if it was anywhere else in the world to be honest. I don’t see Simon getting a finish, but I see him being the faster and stronger fighter who does more to get the win.
The name “Faber” alone is going to gain ownership no matter who he fights. Add that to his cheap salary and this fight taking place in Sac-Town and I think we get Faber over owned this week. That makes Simon the only play I am really interested in here. I love his pace and wrestling ability and he has the ability to score highly against most guys. It might be tougher to score 100+ on Faber but I think he has it in him. I like him in all formats, but I do expect this fight to gain a lot of ownership on both sides. I would like to go overweight on Simon here, but I am not sure how highly that will need to be yet, and I don’t think I want him as my highest owned fighter if he is going to be the chalk of the week. Faber is going to be a fade for me just because I am not willing to get leverage on a guy who is probably going to be more than 15-20% owned who I think should clearly lose. My Simon ownership will probably depend on what I put for my projected ownership by the field. If I get the feel he will only be 30% owned, then I will be fine going up to 50%. However, if I get the feel he will be 50% owned, then I will probably go down to 30%. I would rather be underweight than in line with the field if he is going to be owned in that many lineups. I do think he will be a guy I look to start my cash lineup with this week though and I think he has one of the higher floors on the card as long as he doesn’t get caught in a guillotine.
Winner – Ricky Simon via Unanimous Decision
Aspen Ladd $8,900 vs Germaine de Randamie $7,300
Aspen Ladd
Age: 24
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 66”
Gym: MMA Gold Fight Team
From: California
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 4
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -160
Ladd has a nice jab she will double & triple up on. She has a very nice left hook, straight-right hand combination. She will throw a straight-left to the body to a straight-right hand to the head. She has good combinations in close with solid head movement and will go body head. She will throw a front kick to the body, and occasional leg kicks. She is always moving forward, never backs up, has great cardio and just a confidence about her. In her last fight, she was getting tagged trying to enter into range, and took a lot of shots. She is a bit stiff & comes in on straight lines. She also doesn’t move her head. She did show a willingness to trade & eat shots with no issues. She is very mentally strong, and training to be the best fighter in the division every day even when she doesn’t have a fight lined up. She is a finisher & has a mean streak about her. She has 5 KO/TKO’s & is undefeated.
Ladd is a strong grappler who likes to strike into the clinch, take opponents down and smash them from top position. She is very physically strong in the clinch with her double underhooks, but she can be turned and controlled against the clinch. She needs to improve her clinch game against the cage, so she doesn’t lose fights by getting controlled. She lost the first round against Lina Lansberg because she was controlled against the cage. She had a great double leg in round two and once she got on top the fight was over. She does a great job of getting the side control and then pushing her knee through to the mount while staying very tight. She is very heavy on top and will posture up and unload with punches and elbows. In her last match, she took the back of Tony’s Evinger, flattened her out & finished her with ground & pound. When she gets an opponent in a vulnerable position she will go for the finish immediately. She has good overall takedown defense & a heavy sprawl. She will use an underhook to try to off balance an opponent & take top position herself. In this fight, it’s going to come down to her ability to get takedowns & control or finish on top. Ladd has one career submission, but all her TKO’s have come from G&P.
Germaine De Randamie
Age: 35
Height: 5’10
Weight: 135
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Team Iron Lady
From: Netherlands
UFC Record: 5-1
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +140
Germaine De Randamie is one of the best female Muay Thai fighters of all time and brings those skills with her in every fight. De Randamie is a tall and long fighter, who does a great job of using her reach on the feet. She has very nice leg kicks, both inside and outside. She will really chop down with power on her leg kicks after a jab or left hook. De Randamie has a nice jab, and a very nice one-two. She has good in and out movement and is always trying to pull fighters into her power. She has a really nice uppercut and overhand right and is one of the more powerful strikers in the division. She has nasty front kicks to the body, and she will fire them to the head also. She does a good job of sneaking tricky high kicks into combinations, and when they land they have big power. She is very good defensively, she will keep a high guard, and is always gauging distance. She has big power and has finished 3 of her 7 wins via KO/TKO. She has never been finished with strikes on the feet, her one TKO loss to Nunes was on the ground.
De Randamie is nasty in the clinch, and one of the better clinch fighters in the division. She has nasty knees to the body, and her head position is always right so she is able to muscle girls around in the clinch. She has a nasty Muay Thai plum and will land hard knees to the body and head, as well as short elbows. She will use this position to defend takedowns and do damage, and it makes fighters nervous to close the distance on her. She has never attempted a takedown in the UFC, and I doubt she goes for one here. De Randamie has defended 86% of the takedowns attempted against her in the UFC and hasn’t been taken down since her fight with Amanda Nunes in 2013. She needs to be able to keep this fight standing, and she will have a great chance to win. When she has been taken down, she hasn’t shown much at all. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen her on the mat, but vs Nunes she looked lost & was finished quickly. She will most likely be in trouble if she is taken down in this matchup. In the clinch both girls are dangerous, but I think De Randamie is better with her clinch striking as she has had many years of experience. De Randamie is clearly the better striker at range, and if she’s able to use her front and leg kicks, as well as her jab and right hand to control distance and strike from the outside it should be an easy night for her.
This is an interesting fight. GDR is one of the best woman strikers in the sport, but she is now 35 years old and taking on a young and well-rounded fighter in Ladd. On the feet, GDR is the more technical and dangerous striker. She is going to need to keep this fight at range and if she can do that, then she will win those striking exchanges. Ladd is going to want to make this more of an ugly fight, get inside and throw punches in bunches. She will also be looking for takedowns as well because GDR is purely a striker, so all the danger is on the feet. On the ground, Ladd should be the bully and I see her landing heavy ground and pound and working for submissions. I think the pace and forward pressure Ladd puts on GDR is going to be too much for her and actually think she finishes her at some point in this fight on the ground. I think she could get a submission, but I see her flattening GDR out and throwing punches until the ref steps in. This is a 25-minute fight, so I think it could only take 1 takedowns in that time to get the win here, and as long as she doesn’t get KO’d or play GDR’s game, she should get that win.
This is not your typical “all-in” fight, but I think I will still probably be all-in myself because of their price tags and this being a 25-minute fight. This also isn’t the greatest stack matchup, but I still might end up stacking in cash. Ladd is my preferred play in both formats, but I think the winner scores highly and I would be surprised if they didn’t get more than 10x their salary in a win. Ladd hasn’t scored less than 94 in a win and this is her 1st 5-round fight. She is one of my favorite plays on the board this week and she is a lock for my cash lineup. GDR I am not so sure about. I am pretty sure she outscores a $7.3k salary against a style like Ladd’s, if she wins. I think if you fade this fight at all it is because you are picking GDR and planning on her scoring 70-75 points. I don’t think that would be the case if she wins, so that is why I will be all-in, but I am not against fading it for that case. I would rather have the fighter who is looking to get the fight to the ground though because she has the much higher ceiling.
Winner – Aspen Ladd via 2nd round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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