BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 239 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
Thanks for purchasing my UFC Minneapolis breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Vegas for International Fight Week. DraftKings has some awesome contests for us to win a lot of money from this week. The main GPP is a $23.90 buy-in and $100k+ goes to 1st place with a total of $323,923.90 being paid out. They also have a Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. There are not many more seats remaining so there won’t be much more time to qualify if you are trying to. I will try to get my 3rd seat this week to max it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw 150 entries at that $100k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Julia Avila $8,600 vs Pannie Kianzad $7,600
Julia Avila
Age: 31
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Oklahoma Martial Arts
From: Oklahoma
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 15
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -220
Julia Avila is a solid prospect. She is dynamic with her striking and finishing ability. She was able to knock her last opponent out with a front kick. She also holds wins over Marion Reneau & Nicco Montano, and her only loss was due to injury. Avila is extremely aggressive. There is no feeling out process, and she will unload with straight punch & hook combinations from the opening bell. She has a jab & a solid one-two. Her overhand right & right hooks are powerful. She has solid one one-twos & mixes uppercuts in her combos. She will throw round kicks to the body. She has good front kicks to the body & head. Avila is a finisher & has an edge to her. She has big power for a woman. She is very fast & when she lets her hands go, she looks to overwhelm opponents. She has tremendous cardio. Avila has three career KO/TKO’s, including two in a row. Her one loss was a TKO, but it was due to a hand injury, where the ref stopped the fight.
Avila will use her punching combinations to crash into the clinch against the cage. She has solid clinch control, but she doesn’t have great takedowns. She will throw nasty knees to the body, head, as well as hard elbows. She has decent body lock trips. Avila’s defensive wrestling isn’t bad. She has good takedown defense against the cage & makes opponents pay with elbows & punches. When she does get taken down, she seems to have a good defensive guard & will attack with armbars. If she is taken down by Kianzad, I think she may have some issues. She needs to defend the takedowns here & keep it on the feet. Avila has one armbar submission in her career. The game plan is easy here for Avila, go forward, do damage & defend the takedowns. When she gets opponents near the cage, she is dangerous & unloads with shots. If she can stand up when she’s taken down or defend the takedowns & continue to press forward she will tire Kianzad out. I don’t know if Kianzad has the hand speed in close range to contend with Avila.
Pannie Kianzad
Age: 27
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 66”
Gym: Arte Suave
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +180
Pannie Kianzad jumped on a short notice opportunity to get back in the UFC. She had a successful run on the Ultimate Fighter 28 making it to the finals, but ultimately lost to Macy Chiasson. She was not given a contract, got a win outside the organization in May & jumping back in here. Kianzad is technical at range. She counters well with her lead hand. She has a very good jab & left hook. She is good at walking opponents into those shots by using lateral movement. She has a nice straight-right hand. At range, she usually throws only one-shot attacks. She likes to stick & move. She will try to double jab her way inside. When she wants to get inside or back opponents against the fence, she will throw a left hook, straight-right hand or blitz forward with straight punch combos to back opponents up. She is also good at mixing it up & attacking the body with jabs & hooks. Her kicks aren’t very dangerous & she doesn’t throw them much. She will throw occasional leg & body kicks. She has power in her hands & I’ve seen her drop recent opponents most often with her left hook. She has 3 career KO/TKO’s & has been TKO’d one time.
Kianzad is a good grappler & I see her trying to get this fight to the ground. She uses her combinations to crash into the clinch. She will dig strong double underhooks & has nice knees & short punches. She has solid body locks & will attempt blast doubles in space. Her takedown defense is good, but she was out grappled in her last match. She was controlled & beat up in the clinch with elbows & knees. She was taken down & gave her back up ultimately getting tapped. This fight was at 146 lbs against a very big, physical fighter & I don’t think many opponents will be able to bully her like that. Kianzad is good in her guard. She has nice triangles, armbars & is aggressive going for the finish. She did give her back going for a belly down armbar & was submitted in her last UFC fight. She doesn’t have any submissions in her career. Kianzad does have good top control & ground & pound. I see her trying to use her grappling in this match to mix it up & stop the forward pressure of Avila. Kianzad’s three losses have all come on the ground & Avila is a decent BJJ player, so when she takes her down, she has to be careful. Kianzad is more experienced, has fought under the UFC lights & is more active. She needs to try to stay technical, angle & counter, and look to mix it up with takedowns. She has to keep the fight at her pace & can’t let Avila make it the kinetic brawl she likes.
Avila is making her UFC debut here and she already has wins over two solid UFC fighters in Marion Reneau and Nicco Montano. Kianzad is making her return to the UFC after losing the TUF 28 Finale last year. She won 1 fight outside the UFC since then and now she is getting another shot here on short notice. I am not picking any underdogs to win outright on this card, but I almost picked Kianzad here, just so I wouldn’t have all favorites. I think she has paths to victory and Avila might be a bit overrated here. I do think Avila is the rightful favorite and the more dangerous fighter, but she does look a bit sloppy and who knows how she will handle the “UFC jitters”. I do think she has a lot more power in her hands and can be the bully in this fight, but I could see Kianzad keeping it close on the feet, however, her best path to victory being landing takedowns and winning with top control. She will have to avoid submissions, but she is a live dog. I think the value is on Kianzad here, but I am going to pick Avila to win the fight by winning the striking exchanges and throwing more volume with her punches in bunches.
On DraftKings, I think I will be pretty evenly exposed to this fight. I will give a slight lean towards Kianzad because I really don’t like any underdogs and I think she could be one that pulls off an upset. I don’t see her having a high ceiling, but any win could do if almost all favorites win. I think Avila has the better shot at getting a finish here and I do think she will be low owned. As I mention on basically every card, I like to target the first fight of the night and this is a fight I will likely be overweight to on both sides. If I was making 5 or less lineups, then I would probably just pick a side and stick with a smaller core of fighters. But with 10 or more lineups I would be getting a bit of exposure to both. I think Kianzad is a fine cash game punt as well with the Fight Goes To Decision line being -185. I would say Avila is a GPP only play and that is more so for the low ownership.
Winner – Julia Avila via Split Decision
Ismail Naurdiev $9,300 vs Chance Rencountre $6,900
Ismail Naurdiev
Age: 22
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Thaiboxing MMA Saizburg
From: Austria
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 32
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -500
Ismael Naurdiev netted one of the biggest upsets of the year halting the momentum of Michel Prazeres in February. He looked very good in that match & at 22 years old looks like a phenomenal prospect. Ismael is light on his feet with a long stance & solid movement. He has a nice jab & good inside leg kicks. He has a very good lead leg & will throw nice front kicks & sidekicks to the head & body. He will throw a one-two to a round kick to the body. He closes the distance with extremely fast, straight punch combinations. He has very nice, rear uppercuts. He is very accurate & if he can get opponents backed near the cage he has finishing ability. He has nasty spinning back kicks & spinning back elbows. He has nasty jump knees to the head. He is hittable and loads up on a lot of shots. He is much better when opponents give him space. When fighters make him go backwards, he isn’t as dangerous. He has 11 KO/TKO’s in his career & never been finished with strikes.
Naurdiev is a very good grappler. His takedown defense cost him a fight vs Ismael Jesus, but it looked amazing vs Prazeres. At 22 years old this guy is improving rapidly. He was using an excellent whizzer & underhooks to defend takedowns. He has amazing balance when opponents go for singles, he can jump on one leg & defend takedowns. Naurdiev was able to explode & sweep a credentialed black belt in Michel Prazeres. Not only was he able to sweep him multiple times, but he was efficient on top. He landed big ground & pound, & even took dominant positions like mount & the back. He won the grappling with Prazeres which was highly impressive. He has strong double legs & will pick opponents up & slam them. On top, he has pretty nasty ground & pound and is very accurate. He will take the back, flatten opponents out and finish with punches. He isn’t an active seeker of the takedown. I could potentially see him looking for takedowns in this match. He has 5 career submissions. Naurdiev is going to be the superior athlete & is very explosive. He is going to be the fighter going forward & pushing the fight. Naurdiev needs to be more technical in this match. I think he won’t have to worry with as many takedown attempts, so he can open up more. He needs to use his jab as he goes forward, and work behind his kicks. I think if he can back Chance up behind the warning track, he is dangerous with blitz & spin attacks. I also feel if he can time a takedown and take top position, he will have success.
Chance Rencountre
Age: 32
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: Oklahoma
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 100
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +400
Chance Rencountre is a submission grappler fighting out of Alliance MMA. He had a good performance in his last match submitting Kyle Stewart in round 1. Rencountre is a southpaw & not a bad striker. Rencountre likes to fight long on the feet. He has good lateral movement, fakes and feints. He has a very nice, straight-left hand. He has a pretty good jab but doesn’t throw it as often as he should in my opinion. He will throw good check right hooks, and a right hook, straight-left hand combination. He will throw occasional nice leg & body kicks. He will finish combinations with leg kicks. He will throw rear leg front kicks to the body & head. He is light on his feet but has a hands down style & is hittable. Him training full time now at alliance should help him clean up his defense. He will take a shot to give one & has a great chin. He will stick in the pocket & trade. He’s never been finished by strikes. He has 6 career KO/TKO’s.
Chance Rencountre is a former college wrestler & strong submission fighter. He has great timing on his shots. He has an excellent single leg takedown. He does a good job of feinting the jab or right hook & ducking under for the single. He has a good blast double as well. Rencountre is good in top position. He passes well, and his long limbs help him lock in chokes. Rencountre has won his last three fights via submission. He is good at staying attached to opponents as they try to stand. He is good at jumping on the back from standing positions and has two rear naked chokes. Rencountre has good takedown defense. He was taken down a couple of times by Belal MuhaMMAd in his UFC debut, but looked good off his back. He has a good butterfly guard & is hard to hold down. Belal was able to take Rencountre’s back late in the fight. I think that was more due to Chance being desperate to get back up because it was short time & he knew he was losing. He has never been finished. I feel the fight style of Rencountre will be tricky for Naurdiev. Naurdiev is still hittable, and if Rencountre can use his lateral movement to walk Naurdiev into straight-left hands & right hooks. If he can start to land the left hand clean, he may be able to duck under & get a single leg. I think Rencountre is going to have the better cardio, but less margin for error. He isn’t the finisher Naurdiev is & can’t make a mistake against him. He has never been finished & his chin could possibly help him win the fight. If he can do his thing, stick & move for three rounds he can win the fight.
Naurdiev had a very impressive UFC debut against a proven UFC veteran and now he is getting a step down in my opinion. I really don’t see any area that Rencountre is better at and he is likely going to need to point fight for 15-minutes and hope to get a judge’s decision here. Naurdiev should be more dangerous anywhere this fight goes, and I think he will be the guy dictating the pace of the fight and where the fight takes place. I see him looking to keep this fight on the feet and landing the higher volume and the harder shots. I think he could get a finish on the feet or the ground, but I will take him to win a clear 30-27 and not making it much of a sweat if you want to throw him into parlays.
This isn’t one of my favorite fights to target this week. My preferred play is Naurdiev but it is going to be tough to afford him in many lineups. I think the best reason to use him would be as a pivot at much lower ownership than Jones and Nunes. He does have a +115 ITD line and if he can finish in the 1st round then maybe he could score enough to end up on the nuts and kick off one of the champs. Rencountre is a punt I will have very little experience to. If I was making 10 or less lineups, then he would be a full fade for me. I would need 20 lineups to throw him into 1 I think. I don’t see him getting a finish and it is going to be a tough task to even win. Since I don’t like the underdogs on this card I will just be mixing them all into lineups and won’t be heavy on any of them. I would stick to GPPs only for this fight too unless you want to use Rencountre as a punt, but I would rather just stack the main over using him, personally.
Winner – Ismail Naurdiev via Unanimous Decision
Edmen Shahbazyan $9,400 vs Jack Marshman $6,800
Edmen Shahbazyan
Age: 21
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Glendale Fighting Club
From: California
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 47
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: -600
Edmen Shahbazyan is one of the better prospects in MMA. At just 21 years old he is 2-0 in the UFC. The UFC seems to like him, because they have been giving him favorable matchups. He will be taking on a veteran striker in Jack Marshman. Shahbazyan is big & physical for the division. He has finished all but one of his fights early in round one. He is coming off a quick TKO of Charles Byrd. Shahbazyan has an excellent jab. He will throw double jab, left hooks. He has a very nice one-two & double jab two. He has fast hand speed & will let go with heavy hooks & uppercuts in the pocket. He will try to overwhelm opponents early if he sees they feel his power & get them out of there early. He has finished 6 of his 9 opponents by knockout in under 1 minute & 10 seconds. He has heavy kicks, but he doesn’t throw them too often. He has good round & front kicks to the body & heavy rear leg head kicks. When he kicks, he can tend to float his chin out there with his hands low. He doesn’t have the best defense when he strikes & I would look to wrestle in this match. He stands tall & leaves his chin exposed. He doesn’t move his head & opponents who can eat his power or slip & counter can connect on him. Darren Stewart was able to land some big shots in their fight especially when he had Shahbazyan’s back near the cage. He did show a good chin in that match, because Stewart can crack. He also showed composure when he was hurt & tired. He was able to tie Stewart up, and take him down to survive the 3rd round & seal the fight. In this fight, I feel Shahbazyan should look to wrestle, especially early, get some pop off Marshman’s punches & reduce his speed. He definitely has the power to take Marshman out early also, but I think trading with Marshman gives him the best chance to win. Shahbazyan has 8 KO/TKO’s all in round one.
Shahbazyan is a strong wrestler, showing that off against Darren Stewart. Stewart is known as a super strong fighter, but Shahbazyan was able to out muscle him in the clinch & take him down at will. He is good at landing his double jab a couple times to get respect, then feinting it into a body lock, single or double leg. He has solid double legs in space, but he is best at getting takedowns against the fence. He has good chain wrestling against the cage. When he gets in on an opponent’s legs against the cage, he will transition from doubles, to singles, to body locks. He will come up into double underhooks, then circle to the back & try to get takedowns there. He was able to takedown & take Stewart’s back a couple of times. In this fight I think he should try to takedown Marshman & grind him out. If he can get to dominant positions, he has the ground & pound power to finish the match. I think if he can takedown Marshman & burn some of his cardio, there will be less risk when striking with Marshman. Shahbazyan should look to use his jab to back Marshman up & clinch him against the cage. I think he will be able to control him there, and probably get takedowns. He needs to fight smart which he has proven he could do before vs Stewart. I do believe he has faster hand speed & hits hard, so if he can land & rock Marshman it wouldn’t shock me, but I think Marshman could land in that situation himself. If Shahbazyan uses his grappling & fights smart he has a high likelihood of winning.
Jack Marshman
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: Tillery Combat Academy
From: Wales
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: 84
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +450
Jack Marshman snapped a two-fight skid with a decision victory over John Phillips in his last match. That was a controversial split decision, where he didn’t look particularly good. Marshman is a sizable underdog in this spot and looks to be being fed to a young prospect by the UFC. He is a boxer & quick for the division. He likes to use a lot of feints and fakes from the outside, as well as stutter step movements to disguise his entries & explode forward. He has decent head movement closing the distance and he will throw full power overhands and hooks making him very dangerous in close range. He has fast hands in the pocket and will throw three or four punches at a time. He does a good job of slipping & ripping in the pocket, and if he is to win, I see him getting the finish in an exchange. He has good footwork and does a great job of cutting off the cage and stalking his opponents to the cage. He will throw nice jabs and straight punches and closes the distance with a nice lead uppercut. He will throw straight punches and hooks to the body. He rarely throws kicks and will only throw a few leg kicks a fight. He has been finished four times and is a tough guy but has a questionable chin. He has 13 KO/TKO’s and can definitely finish the fight with one shot.
Marshman is not a good grappler and a poor wrestler. He has very bad takedown defense and off his back he is not very dangerous. He has 17% takedown defense in the UFC and gets taken down very easily with double legs. He is tough and has only been submitted one time, but he can be grinded out. When he was taken down by “Shoe Face” he was quickly submitted. He did do a decent job of retaining half guard, and offsetting balance by bucking in the mount. Ultimately though, he gave his back & was submitted. He doesn’t look like he would have good get-ups. He doesn’t move his hips much & lays flat on his back at times. He does have a few submissions off his back such as armbars and triangles, but those were a long time ago vs regional level competition. He doesn’t go for takedowns or try to get into the clinch. Even in his last match against John Phillips who has terrible takedown defense, he couldn’t even take him down. If he hurts you he will get on top and has a few submission victories. He has 5 career submissions. Marshman slows down as well and he is most dangerous in the early rounds. Marshman needs to try to walk Shahbazyan into counters & force him into pocket exchanges. He needs to try to land a big shot that gets Shahbazyan’s respect early and makes him think about shooting takedowns. If he can force Shahbazyan to trade with him on the feet he has a chance to catch him. Shahbazyan floats his chin & Marshman can crack.
This looks like a setup fight to me. Shahbazyan is undefeated at 9-0, 2-0 in the UFC, and he is only 21 years old. He is a well-rounded fighter and he has 8 wins by KO. I expect him to look improved each time he steps in the cage and this is a great matchup for him. Marshman is purely a striker and even more so a brawler. He is going to be outclassed everywhere in this fight unless he can drag Shahbazyan into a brawl or knock him out. Shahbazyan is the better overall striker and he can probably get this fight to the ground any time he wants and not have to worry about Marshman finishing him off his back. I see Shahbazyan looking for takedowns early and wearing Marshman out and taking power away from his shots as the fight goes on. I think this could go all 15-minutes, but I see Shahbazyan getting a knockout at some point and I will say he gets it in round 2 after dominating round 1 on the feet and on the ground.
Shahbazyan is my preferred play on DraftKings and he is my favorite pivot away from Jones and Nunes. He should be the better fighter everywhere in this fight and he has the ability to rack up 5-10 takedowns here against a guy that is going to want to strike only. I would take Shahbazyan as the more likely guy to get a finish on the feet as well and I think he is playable in all formats. I will likely try to be overweight to him this weekend but Marshman is one of the guys I like the least. If I was making 20 lineups I would full fade Marshman here. With 150 I will have a couple but no more than 5-8%. He is going to need a knockout to win and that isn’t something I want to invest much in.
Winner – Edmen Shahbazyan via Unanimous Decision
Song Yadong $8,500 vs Alejandro Perez $7,700
Yadong Song
Age: 21
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: China
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 67
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -240
Yadong Song is a super prospect in the ultra-stacked BW division. He is 3-0 in the UFC and getting a big step up in competition. He is fighting Alejandro Perez, who is sitting right outside the top 15. He has had a long while to prepare for Perez & should be ready to go. Song is an incredible athlete & one of the most explosive, powerful fighters in the division. He has two finishes in his three UFC wins & one punch knockout power. Song likes to pressure forward & cut off the cage, and he’s very light on his feet. He has a long karate stance & is very fast in & out. His distance control is incredible, and he can slide in and out of range very well. He is excellent at cutting off the cage & making opponents fight while skirting the cage. He has a great jab. He will double jab his way into range. He will throw heavy, low kicks. He will throw tight one-twos. He has a nasty straight & right hook. He has a good left hook, right straight combination. He will throw nice uppercut, left hooks also. His overhand right is nasty & he’s knocked opponents out with it. He will work the body with punches & mixes it up very well. He does a good job of slipping shots and returning with counters. He always has great balance on the feet, is smooth and fluid, with very little wasted movement. He has very fast, spinning back kicks to the body & head, he throws with almost zero telegraph. I think that the in & out movement of Song will cause “Turbo” issues. I expect Song to be the one controlling the center & if he can back Perez up, land & exit he will probably KO him. Song is a warrior, when he’s hit he wants to get it right back. He has good defense, and when he gets hit he returns immediately with combinations. Song has 4 KO/TKO’s but that’s a bit deceiving. He started fighting very young, but his power is much more prevalent now. He has 3 KO/TKO’s in his last 8 fights.
Song is a strong fighter for bantamweight, and you can really see it in grappling exchanges. In the clinch he bullies fighters with knees and elbows and can throw opponents around. He landed a nasty elbow in his last match in the clinch that dropped and finished Arantes. His takedown defense is super strong, he was easily able to reverse the double leg of Arantes and end up on top where he landed brutal ground & pound. He does a great job of using heavy pressure in top position, then posturing and throwing hard punches to the body and punches and elbows to the head. He dominated Arantes on the ground with G&P in his guard, ultimately finishing him, and was never threatened. Arantes is known for having a good guard and submission game, and Song completely nullified it. Song also has good back takes and great control. He has a good arm triangle submission, and you can see his grappling really improving. He had some great timing on double legs against Vince Morales and took him down against the cage. He isn’t someone who will push for takedowns & he just takes them if he sees them easily available. Song isn’t a big submission threat with just three in his career. Song has never been submitted. Song is still young in his career & got a bit tired late in round 3. Song is going to be the one going forward trying to cut off the cage. I see him using his jabs & leg kicks to back Perez up & then land combinations in & out. I think he is more durable with the better chin but shouldn’t trade with Perez. He needs to try to stay technical & the knockout will come.
Alejandro Perez
Age: 29
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Entram Gym
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 7-2-1
Fight Matrix: 23
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +200
Alejandro “Turbo” Perez had his 7 fight UFC unbeaten streak snapped in his last match. He lost a close decision to Cody Stamann. Stamann was a late notice replacement, and Perez was actually supposed to face Song Yadong in that fight. Yadong had a knee injury that forced him out of the contest. Perez is an intense individual & will be the best fighter Song has ever fought. Perez is known for crazy antics during fight week and tries to punk opponents out. Song has to be ready for all the veteran tricks Perez throws at him. Perez is a very good boxer. He is a counter puncher with good lateral movement. He has a very good lead hand. His jab is fast & sharp. He has an excellent left hook. He will use the left hook moving backwards nicely, but in the pocket, he will really sit down on it with power. He has nasty, low leg kicks. He will throw nice one-twos down the pipe. He has a very good straight-right hand & a nasty overhand right. He will throw step-in knees to the body & nice round kicks to the body. He is good at slipping & ripping in the pocket and is very fast. In exchanges he is dangerous & if he lands clean he can hurt opponents. He doesn’t have the dynamism that Song has, and is much more meat & potatoes, but he’s effective. He is low volume & fights at a slow pace making a ton of his fights very close. He is good at winning close decisions. He does have a questionable chin & can get dropped but recover quickly & has great cardio. He has only been finished by strikes one time. Perez has 10 KO/TKO’s.
Alejandro Perez is an awesome defensive grappler. He will gas opponents out by defending takedowns & bouncing right back up if he’s taken down. We saw that against Matthew Lopez, where he was taken down early, survived, got up, turned up the heat & TKO’d him. He trains at AKA, a great wrestling gym, and has really improved his takedown defense. He has a very fast sprawl & heavy hips. He does a good job of landing knees to the body and disengaging from the clinch. He will shuck fighters away with double unders. Cody Stamann who is a great wrestler, was unable to take him down. Perez did get taken down a couple times against Matthew Lopez & gave his back. He was able to survive & scramble back to his feet. Perez has 5 submissions in his career & has been submitted 3 times himself. Perez should look to goad Song into exchanges, use his lateral movement, leg kicks, & straight punches when Song goes wide. Then, when Song wants to get it back, counter with hard punches. He needs to make this fight in close range. If he allows Song space & a chance to get his timing he might get picked apart.
I have been very impressed with what I have seen from Song in his UFC career. He is very well-rounded and looks like he has title contender potential. This will be his biggest test yet though. Perez is 7-2-1 in the UFC and he always finds a way to keep fights close. He is decent everywhere and he has as many finishes as Song has wins. If Song doesn’t fight to his potential, then Perez could keep this fight close and maybe even steal another split decision. I just don’t see that happening. I think this is a good matchup for Song. I expect him to win the striking exchanges and I think he is the better wrestler of the two as well. I see him looking like more than a 2-1 favorite here and I think he can finish on the feet or the ground. He can also cruise to a 30-27 decision as well. I see him landing the harder shots on the feet and I am going to pick him to win by TKO after dropping him with a hard shot and following it up with GNP until the ref steps in.
On DraftKings, Song is my preferred play here. I think he is playable in all formats and I like him anywhere this fight goes. I think he will be the fighter throwing more volume on the feet and he is more likely to land takedowns IMO. He is also more likely to get a finish. He has no ITD line as I type this, but Perez is +850 ITD and that makes me have little interest in him this week. He is a GPP only play but I will be sure to cap my exposure to him at 10-15%. Yadong is a guy I will look to be overweight on though and at his $8.5k price tag he is fairly easy to afford.
Winner – Song Yadong via 2nd round (T)KO
Claudio Gadelha $8,800 vs Randa Markos $7,400
Claudia Gadelha
Age: 30
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 63.5”
Gym: Nick Catone’s MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 5-4
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -225
Claudia Gadelha is in desperate need of a win here. She has lost two of three fights & the win in between was a controversial decision. She has once again changed camps & is training with Mark Henry in New Jersey. It seems maybe she’s lost some confidence, because she has been bouncing around gyms trying to find something. She is fast with her hands and entries into her punching combos. She throws very nice straight-right hand, left hook and left uppercut combos. She has nice elbows in close and will sit in the pocket and throw down against opponents. She is awesome exiting and entering the clinch with elbows and punches and they have big power. She is comfortable in exchanges and throws hard hooks. She has good overhand rights, and wide left hooks. Gadelha has 2 KO/TKO’s, but definitely will have the power advantage in this matchup. She is super tough with a great chin and has never been finished.
Gadelha is an elite grappler, and bruising wrestler. She is very strong in the clinch. She does a great job of using her hooks to close the distance and grab the Muay Thai clinch where she throws brutal elbows, punches & knees. She is very strong in the clinch with body lock trips and throws. She is explosive with double leg takedowns and does a good job of getting them against the cage or reactively in space. She is very heavy on top with great guard passing. She does a great job of getting to side control where she lands hard elbows. She does a good job of taking the back and getting rear naked chokes. She has nice armbars as well. She hasn’t gotten very many submissions in the UFC, more relying on ground & pound and control, but she does have 7 career submissions. She has gassed in recent fights, starting very quickly and fading late. She really gassed out in her last two matches and needs to address that.
Randa Markos
Age: 33
Height: 5’5
Weight: 115
Reach: 63.5”
Gym: Michigan Top Team
From: Canada
UFC Record: 5-5-1
Fight Matrix: 12
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +185
Randa Markos had the best performance of her career in her last match. She got a quick first round submission victory over Angela Hill, and is the fighter coming into the matchup with momentum. She is a tenacious fighter with very good cardio and keeps a steady work rate throughout the fight. She keeps her lead hand low & is heavy on her lead leg. She uses her front hand to gauge distance and tries to stay loose. She uses a lot of lateral movement, but she doesn’t really set anything up off it, she usually just comes forward in straight lines. She will throw jabs, and double jabs. She will throw straight punches & hooks to close the distance. She will throw overhand rights & left hooks to try to catch opponents coming in. When she is getting pushed back & pressured, she doesn’t do much of anything. She is extremely low output & if she hangs around on the outside with Gadelha, she won’t win. She will bite down at times & throw one-twos or walk through shots to get inside, but not often enough. Markos doesn’t have power & she has had 9 decisions in 11 UFC fights. She has 0 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Randa Markos is a grinder. She is good in the clinch or going for takedowns. She will work in the clinch against the cage and has no problem grinding you out there, but she lacks physicality at times and can get taken down herself or controlled against the cage. She will throw overhand rights into body locks. She will try to attack with hooks, back her opponents to the cage & dig an underhook. She will use nice snatch singles to get opponents to the cage. She has good body locks and doubles and will go for hip tosses. On top, she does a good job of getting in dominant positions and landing decent G&P. She will turk the legs & try to move directly into mount. She likes to take mount & has some nice G&P. She also has nice back takes using the double wrist lock. She has struggled with good BJJ players. They have been able to sweep her & put her in submission trouble. Cortney Casey was able to catch an armbar off her back on Markos. Off her back, she actually isn’t bad, she does a good job of scrambling and has good dexterity in her legs and can take the back in odd positions. She does a good job of when she wins a scramble, immediately getting in a dominant position and going to work, not letting opponents rest. She isn’t a huge submission threat, but she has 4 career submissions. She has been submitted twice herself.
If Gadelha had a gas tank, then this would be an easy bet for me. She is the better fighter all-around in this matchup and she can win on the feet or dominate on the ground. Her issue is her cardio. She gasses after 1 round and after that the fight drifts away from her. If she could figure out how to pace herself or just have better cardio, then she could be the champion. I do think round 1 will be a very clear round either way in this matchup. It will all depend on her cardio how rounds 2 and 3 go. If she can pace herself then she wins this fight. If she can’t, then Markos is a live underdog and can win the last half of this fight. We could even see Gadelha win two 10-9 rounds and then be completely gassed in the 3rd and lose it 10-8 to give us a draw. Anything is possible in this fight, so I am staying away. I will pick Gadelha though because skill wise she is levels above Markos.
Gadelha is my preferred play here on DraftKings but more so for GPPs. She is a boom/bust play with her gas tank and I would only want to risk that investment in GPPs where she does have a high ceiling in a win. She is the better striker and grappler here and she could rack up a bunch of takedowns. It’s just the gas tank that I worry about and that is what puts Markos in play. I think she is a fine cash play with the Fight Goes To Decision line being -300. I will also have 10-20% of her in GPPs because she is a live dog on a card we are searching for dogs that have a shot. She doesn’t have a high ceiling, but her floor is solid and if she can get 70 points in a win that could be enough for the $100k lineup. This isn’t a fight I love to target, but I will be getting exposure to both sides and if I was making 20 or less I would be doing the same.
Winner – Claudia Gadelha via Unanimous Decision
Marlon Vera $9,500 vs Nohelin Hernandez $6,700
Marlon Vera
Age: 26
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: Team Oyama
From: Ecuador
UFC Record: 7-4
Fight Matrix: 24
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Marlon Chito Vera was supposed to fight Sean O’Malley in this spot. That was a big opportunity for him, but it has now fallen by the wayside. O’Malley was flagged by NSAC, so a late replacement was forced to come in. He will now be taking on UFC newcomer Nohelin Hernandez. Vera has been on a tear & more violent than ever recently. He has won his last 3 fights via finish. Vera is a solid striker. He will switch stances & throws a lot of kicks. He throws hard low leg kicks. He has a good jab, straight-left hand from southpaw. He throws hard round & front kicks to the body from southpaw. He will also throw sidekicks to the body & hard round kicks to the head. He will throw oblique kicks to the knees with both legs. He likes to throw jab, left hooks from orthodox, and will throw a lot of lead left hooks & uppercuts. He will throw a jab, right hook to a body kick combination. His straight-left hand is accurate and has pop. He is usually a slow starter but comes into round 2 reinvigorated. He seems to have a new kill or be killed mindset and is super aggressive. He will start to walk down opponents heavy, really put on the volume and welcome a war. He will throw a lot of push kicks to try to get his opponents moving backwards & will attack with flying knees when they’re near the cage. He finished Wuliji Buren with a nasty left hook to the body after he pressured him backwards. He isn’t the most athletic fighter and relies a lot on his chin and toughness. In this matchup though, I think he will be the quicker, more explosive fighter. He will walk down opponents with a high guard, but he doesn’t move his head much. He stands tall & it makes him more hittable. He is very durable and will not be broken. He has been able to not only survive but continue to come forward in round 3 against a monster like John Lineker. He has 4 KO/TKO’s in his career and has never been finished.
Marlon Vera is a strong grappler, and very dangerous. He likes to get the Thai clinch & land hard knees to the head. He will also throw hard hooks to the body & head from the single collar. He is good at disengaging the clinch with combinations especially against the cage. That is how he finished Buren. He landed a brutal combination of knees to the head of Guido Canneti against the cage that dropped him. He is awesome at throwing combinations against the cage with bad intentions and then going to the grappling. He hurt Canneti bad against the cage and attacked with a guillotine which was unsuccessful. He hurt Canneti again against the cage this time getting a trip takedown, taking the back and getting the RNC. Vera doesn’t have the greatest takedown defense, but he is very tricky off his back. He has gotten an armbar against Brian Kelleher off his back. He will attack with nice elbows and has good get-ups also. He is improving & gaining confidence every time out. He has 7 submission victories & his last 4 victories are via finish. He has great cardio & gets better as the fight goes on. This is a good style matchup for Vera. He won’t have to look for this guy or worry about takedowns. I also think Vera hits harder & is more explosive. If he goes in there looking for the kill I think it’s very likely he will find it.
Nohelin Hernandez
Age: 25
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: AKA
From: California
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 124
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Nohelin Hernandez is accepting this fight on about two weeks’ notice. This is a huge spot to make your UFC debut. He is facing an established UFC veteran on the biggest card of the year. Hernandez does train at AKA, so he has a lot of coaches & teammates who can tell him what UFC fight week is like. Hernandez is a striker who primarily likes to box. Hernandez does have pro boxing experience, but an 0-3 record. Hernandez likes to pressure forward & control the center. He works behind a nice jab, that he will double & triple up on. He will throw nice one-twos, and hooks in combination. Hernandez will throw nice right hook, straight-left hand combinations. He has pretty fast hands & will trade in the pocket. He doesn’t have a lot of variety in his striking. The only other strike he will mix in really is a flying knee & he doesn’t kick. Hernandez also is flat footed & stands very tall. He can be chopped down with leg kicks. He also doesn’t move his head & his chin is straight up in the air. He gets tagged in almost all his fights & I have seen him dropped many times. He does have good recoverability & won’t give up. He doesn’t seem to have huge power & has 3 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished with strikes.
Hernandez isn’t an offensive grappler. The only times he will go for takedowns is if he’s getting beat up on the feet. He will shoot single legs & try to control opponents in the clinch, but he isn’t a good wrestler. I would say the best part about his game is his takedown defense. He has a great sprawl & fast hips. I haven’t seen much of him on top or on his back. The only time I saw someone get on top of him & cement position was after he was dropped by Fierce Taylor. He was submitted by rear naked choke. Nohelin isn’t a submission threat & has zero submissions in his career. He is still young in his career only being a pro since 2016 and hasn’t been overwhelming vs regional level competition. He has had 4 split decision victories including in his last match. Hernandez does have good cardio. He seems to be a slow starter, gaining rhythm & confidence as the fight goes on. Hernandez needs to be technical in this match & keep it standing.
Chito Vera was scheduled to face Sean O’Malley here but O’Malley was pulled from the fight and Hernandez took the bout this Monday, on less than a weeks’ notice. There are no odds on this fight yet, but I do expect Vera to be a fairly heavy favorite. Hernandez looks to have decent boxing and some pop in his hands but there wasn’t anything special about his striking that would lead me to think he can beat Vera in that department. That would be his path to victory though, to keep this fight standing and ideally get a knockout. I think it will be hard to win a decision here but it’s not out of reach. He could also maybe win with some ground and pound, but I think Vera is going to have a big edge on the ground, so I don’t think sitting in Vera’s guard would be a good idea even if he can land takedowns. I think Vera will look to strike in the beginning and look to work his way to the ground if he can find openings for takedowns. I do think if this fight hits the ground that Vera has a good chance at finding a submission. I think he might even rock and drop Hernandez on the feet, then follow it up with a submission on the ground. Hernandez has never been knocked out in his career, but he has been dropped multiple times and if this fight hits the ground at all, Vera could lock up a sub quickly.
On DraftKings, Hernandez is my preferred play because of Vera’s price. I think Vera could get to 100 DK points, but I like 3-4 other fighters in that $9k range more and that is going to limit the amount of LUs I can make with Vera. He will make my pool, but I will be underweight to a lower owned Vera here and I will take more shots on the underdog hoping he can get a knockout finish. I think I like the main event stack more for cash than I do using Hernandez in cash, but I will be overweight to Hernandez in GPPs and I think he can keep this fight close if it is in the feet.
Winner – Marlon Vera via 2nd round Submission
Arnold Allen $9,000 vs Gilbert Melendez $7,200
Arnold Allen
Age: 25
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: England
UFC Record: 5-0
Fight Matrix: 42
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -365
This will be the most high-profile fight of Arnold Allen’s career. He is getting to face a legend & one of the best LWs of all time in Gilbert Melendez. Allen is catching Melendez at a good time as he is 37 & no longer the Gilbert Melendez we all knew & loved. Melendez is returning from a long layoff & it will be intriguing to see how he looks. Allen himself had been known for long layoffs. This is the first time in his UFC career he has fought more than once in the same calendar year. Allen is a young, dynamic athlete. He has very fast hands and nice fluid kicks. He uses good in and out footwork, movement and has good distance control. He will pump the jab out there & throw leg kicks. He will throw oblique kicks to the legs. He is southpaw and has a good lead hook. He will throw hard one-twos & jab, overhands and his left hand has big power. He will attack with a hard-overhand left lead and has very fast hand speed. He has good front kicks and nice head kicks as well. He will throw hard sidekicks to the body. He doesn’t hold his hands up & relies more on getting in & out keeping the volume high. He could move his head better and can get hit but he wears it well and does a good job of tucking his chin. He is also excellent at never stopping until the horn sounds. He has finished multiple fighters late in rounds when fighters relax. He keeps heavy pressure on opponents on the feet & fighters wilt under the pressure. Allen is only 24 years old & I expect him to be steadily improving. Allen has 5 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished.
Arnold Allen is a strong grappler, but not an incredible wrestler. He is strong in the clinch and will dig & underhook or get a tight waist to control opponents against the cage. He will bully opponents to the mat with throws & has very nice trips. He will throw heavy knees to the head & body, and nice spinning attacks off the break. He has pretty solid takedown defense but can be taken down. When he starts to get the timing of opponent’s takedowns, he has a very strong sprawl. He will sprawl, circle to the side & attack with big elbows. He has solid back takes but can be shucked off the back. He is hard to hold down & when he stands up, he will attack immediately. He is excellent at landing shots in those transition periods from grappling to striking. He will attack with guillotines to counter takedowns. Off his back, he has a very strong lower body, and is able to use butterfly hooks to stand up & or sweep. He was able to sweep, control and mount a great wrestler in Makwan Amirkhani. He has fought back to back wrestlers and is getting another one here. He should be very used to having fighters diving for his legs by now. He did a much better job of defending the takedown in his last match. Allen has 4 career submissions, including a very nice front choke finish vs Mads Burnell. He has never been submitted.
Gilbert Melendez
Age: 37
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 73”
Gym: Skrap Pack
From: California
UFC Record: 1-5
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 10 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L4
Betting Odds: +305
Gilbert Melendez still feels he has something left. He hasn’t won a fight since 2013, but he still has the desire. He has a solid job at ESPN, he has had for years, and I don’t think he needs to fight. His wife is also an up & coming fighter in Bellator. I do feel Gilbert is doing this for the right reasons, which is for the love of the game. He hasn’t fought since October of 2017, but he did just win a grappling match against UFC vet Pat Healy in May. Melendez is a boxer, wrestler with a fighters’ heart. Melendez is an excellent boxer. He will put the pressure on opponents & hits hard. His jab is nasty, and he throws it stiff. He has great feints & slips punches well. He will attack the body with the jab & has a heavy, straight-right hand. His one-two is probably his best combination. He has a devastating right hook. He will fake the level change & leap into left & right hooks with huge power. In the pocket, Melendez is very good at countering with his right hand. Melendez doesn’t throw many kicks & he has a traditional boxing stance. He puts a lot of weight on his lead leg & it has gotten chewed up in his last two matches. He was fighting two of the best leg kickers in the sport, so I don’t expect that to be such a big issue. In the fight with Jeremy Stephens, Melendez was walking forward southpaw & changing back to orthodox when he gets past kicking range. Melendez tends to also not move his head much & gets tagged with jabs & straights. The thing is Melendez has an excellent chin & getting hit just fires him up to give it back. Melendez has 11 career knockouts & has never been finished by strikes. As long as Gilbert has a pulse he’s going to come after you.
Gilbert Melendez is an elite grappler. He is black belt in Jiu-Jitsu & a great wrestler. Melendez has excellent knees in the clinch to the body & head, and lands hard shots off the break. Melendez’ constant pressure creates openings for his takedowns & he is relentless with them. Melendez has great double legs & was very strong at 155 lbs. Melendez will attack with strikes while going for takedowns which is an interesting thing he does. He will attack the body with short punches in the clinch & generates a lot of power. On top, Melendez has some of the better ground & pound in MMA history. He throws hard, fast punches & in combination. Melendez has been able to takedown elite Jiu-Jitsu fighters & beat them up. Melendez has a good sprawl & will use the front head lock position to snap his opponents down & take top position himself. Melendez doesn’t really look for submissions, but he has excellent submission defense. Melendez has tremendous cardio & is going to have a huge experience advantage. Melendez has no submissions & only been submitted one time.
This is new school vs old school. Gilbert Melendez has been a title contender since he joined the UFC back in 2013. He is now 37 years old though and is on a 4-fight losing streak. Allen is only 25 years old and he is 5-0 in the UFC and a win here would be huge for him even if it is against a Gil who is past his prime. I do think that Allen is the rightful favorite here and he is going to be my pick to win the fight based on just picking who wins. However, the line is off here. At -400 that would imply that Allen wins this fight 80% of the time. I do not think that is the case. I think this is a fairly close fight and I would line Allen closer to -235 which would be closer to 70% implied odds. I think Allen has the cleaner striking and he is a lot more dangerous on the ground. I just don’t see him getting a finish here and Gil can keep this fight close on the feet and possibly steal rounds with takedowns. I do think this goes all 3-rounds though and I don’t see Allen dominating any one area, so I think we have a close decision in this one. I will say 29-28 Allen but if Gil steals this one I won’t be shocked at all.
On DraftKings, Gil is my preferred play here. At $9k Allen is going to be priced out of most of my lineups and he is probably my least favorite $9k+ play on the slate. He is going to need a finish to have 100+ point upside here and I don’t want to bank on that happening when we have other favorites I believe in a lot more. I will be limiting my exposure to him to maybe 10% this week but I will look to be overweight to Gil. I think Gil does have a shot to win this fight with his wrestling and at $7.2k I think he is in play in all formats. I don’t love him to get his win here, but he is my favorite play under $7.5k this week and I do think he has a shot to pull off the upset.
Winner – Arnold Allen via Split Decision
Michael Chiesa $9,200 vs Diego Sanchez $7,000
Michael Chiesa
Age: 31
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: Sikjitsu
From: Washington
UFC Record: 8-4
Fight Matrix: 27
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -335
Michael Chiesa is looking to build off his debut win at 170 lbs in the UFC. He was able to take out a post prime Carlos Condit & getting another opportunity to knock off a legend in Diego Sanchez. Chiesa is a long southpaw. He is a kicker and likes to stay on the outside until he closes the distance for takedowns. He will throw a decent jab, straight-right hand, but he tends to throw with full power making it easy to slip & counter him. He has good body & head kicks and will slip quick straight punches in after throwing them. Overall Chiesa is a flawed striker. He doesn’t move his head, and he tends to overextend himself where he can easily be countered. He also doesn’t set his kicks up well at times. He has a good chin and has relied on taking some punishment to get inside. He has never been finished by strikes, only by a cut against Joe Lauzon. He did get dropped and submitted in his last match against Anthony Pettis. He throws with power but isn’t a big KO threat with only two career TKO’s.
Chiesa is a physical wrestler, and very strong. He has very long arms and is able to get the body lock & his hands connected from far out. He throws nice knees to the body in the clinch and will attack with elbows. He has a body lock trip & and a single leg takedown. He has a crushing top game, putting heavy pressure on opponents. He likes to stand up in opponent’s guards & throw hard kicks & try to land hard elbows or pass guard. He will transition to the mount, where he will throw shots until his opponents give their backs. He is a great back taker and can get them in the scrambles as well. He has a great rear naked choke. He is hard to take down, but fighters can win scrambles against him when he’s too aggressive, and he tends to give up his back as well. He is good on bottom and does a good job of regaining guard where he attacks. He has good triangles & will look for kimuras, either to submit or sweep. He got tired after round one against Pettis, and didn’t come in the greatest shape, but he usually has good cardio. Chiesa has 11 submissions including 8 rear naked chokes. He has been submitted three times in his career.
Diego Sanchez
Age: 37
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: No Affiliation
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 18-11
Fight Matrix: 54
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +275
Diego Sanchez has enjoyed a career renaissance as of late. He has gone back to his grappling roots & put it on his last two opponents. He was able to finish Mickey Gall in his last match. Sanchez’s last two opponents have not been UFC caliber & if he can take out Chiesa that will truly prove he is back. He has left Jackson-Wink for this fight & has been saying a lot of crazy things in the lead up to his fight. Talking about wanting to die in the octagon & not caring about his kids. He has a killer’s mindset right now & trying to harness everything in him for one last run. His striking has never been super impressive, but he is relentless. He will throw hard overhand rights & right hooks. He will throw left straight, overhand right, or right uppercut combinations. He will throw a wild lead left hook & can really overextend with it. He will throw hard leg & body kicks. He has shown a nice head kick years ago dropping Clay Guida with one. He is still very aggressive & takes the center immediately. When he gets hurt, he still has that dog in him & will bite down and try to get it back. His chin is gone & when he does that fighters put him out cold. I would have the same game plan as his last match. He needs to use his strikes solely to get inside & get takedowns. Sanchez has never been known as a power guy with 9 finishes by KO/TKO but got his first one since 2008 in his last match. He is one of the most durable fighters in UFC history, but the wars have caught up to him. He has been KO/TKO’d in his last three losses, and 4 times overall.
Sanchez is a grinding, relentless wrestler, and returned to that style in his last match. “The Nightmare” was able to takedown White & Gall at will, control and beat them up on the ground. He will run across the cage & attack with the takedown right away. He has a good single leg entry & is very strong. He can pick up and dump his opponents. He has good double leg entries as well. He likes to get the takedowns against the fence. On top, he has great control & strong ground and pound. He is super active & relentless with his volume. He has phenomenal cardio and will put a storm on opponents and make them give up. His last two wins have come against submission grapplers, where he just grinded them out. Sanchez has never been submitted in his illustrious career. He has 9 career submissions, but 0 in the UFC. Sanchez has amazing heart & is willing to die in there.
Diego Sanchez is going to have his fight with Clay Guida back in 2009 inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame the night before this fight. That is how long he has been fighting top UFC competition and he is riding a 2-fight win streak going into this fight. I do think Chiesa is the rightful favorite here though because he should be the more powerful grappler and he has the more durable chin. Chiesa isn’t a power striker at all, but I do think he can test Sanchez’s chin at this point in his career. I also think he will be the fighter landing more takedowns and having more success on the ground. He could be the first person to submit Sanchez here. However, I don’t think he should be this wide of a favorite and Sanchez can win this fight. Sanchez can make this a dirty fight on the feet and if he is in close throwing punches, I think he can hurt Chiesa to the body or win rounds by being the more exciting striker of the two. I also think he can land takedowns himself and keep top control for periods of time. I don’t think either of those are likely outcomes, but if I was going to bet a side of this fight at the current line I would take Diego. I think Chiesa probably wins a 30-27 or 29-28 decision here, but Sanchez won’t be an easy out here and I do think there is a bit of value in the betting line.
Sanchez is my preferred play here because he is another underdog with a shot. He is also only $7k so any win could put him on the optimal lineup. I also think Chiesa is in play because of the durability of Sanchez and I think Chiesa will have success on the ground. He is very live for a submission here, and even live for a KO, so I will have some exposure to him, but he is a GPP only play. I would rather use Sanchez in cash if I was using this fight. I would guess I am going to be overweight to both guys, but I’ll have more Diego and I might be closer to in line with the field on Chiesa. I do expect him to be somewhat low owned, so it won’t take a lot to be overweight and target against a battle worn Diego Sanchez.
Winner – Michael Chiesa via Unanimous Decision
Luke Rockhold $8,400 vs Jan Blachowicz $7,800
Luke Rockhold
Age: 34
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205 (UFC Debut)
Reach: 77”
Gym: Combat Club
From: California
UFC Record: 6-3
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -220
Luke Rockhold enters a slight favorite in his debut bout at LHW in the UFC. The former MW champion has had issues making weight for a while now & this was probably a good choice for him to move up. Rockhold needs a big win here to steady his career. He has lost two of three fights by KO, including his last match to Yoel Romero. He hasn’t fought in about a year and a half and has been battling a lot of injuries. A loss here for Rockhold would be massive. It would almost essentially be a death blow to his title hopes. At 34 years old he has to win & win impressively to get back on the map. He has seen fighters such as Anthony Smith & Thiago Santos move up & get title shots, and is probably thinking why can’t he? Rockhold is a bully fighter who likes to use his physicality. He is also a southpaw. He will use good footwork & feints to cut opponents off & force them to fight near the cage. Rockhold likes to work behind straight punches & kicks. He only has a decent jab, but a really nice straight-left hand. He likes to throw a straight-left hand, right hook combination. He has a nice check right hook. He also throws a straight-left hand to a left body kick combo. His kicks are a huge part of his game. He will throw full power kicks so even if you block them he could break your arm. He has nasty left round house kicks to the leg body & head. Rockhold will throw really nice front kicks to the body as well. He has variety on his kicks & can throw nice wheel kicks, and question mark kicks very well. His chin has come into question & he can get sloppy with his boxing in the pocket. He drops his hands at times & has been very susceptible to the left hand. Sometimes Rockhold can off balance himself with shots & be out of position, leaving himself open to be countered. In all of his UFC losses he has been KO/TKO’d. Rockhold has 6 KO/TKO’s & has been finished by strikes four times in his career.
Rockhold is an extremely underrated grappler & arguably has the best top game in the UFC. Rockhold isn’t the best offensive wrestler & doesn’t shoot takedowns. He relies on his length & physicality to get them in the clinch. It will be interesting if he can have the same success using those takedowns against bigger, stronger fighters. Rockhold is very good at digging underhooks, circling to the back & dragging opponents down or tripping them. Rockhold has amazing takedown defense, and I doubt Jan will even test it. Even if he does get taken down, he is extremely hard to hold down. He will sprawl & circle to the back for rear naked chokes as well. He will also counter takedowns with guillotines. When he gets top position, he will posture up & throw brutal shots. He has excellent control & really knows how to put power in his ground shots. If he gets on top of Jan I could see him ending the fight shortly after. Rockhold is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu & higher level than Jan on the mat. Rockhold has 8 career submissions & has never been submitted. In all 4 of Rockhold’s losses he’s been KO’d & that’s the only way anyone’s found a way to defeat him.
Jan Blachowicz
Age: 36
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 78”
Gym: S4 Fight Club
From: Poland
UFC Record: 6-5
Fight Matrix: 13
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +180
Jan Blachowicz is no push over. He is one of the more well-rounded fighters in the division & notoriously durable. He lost a title eliminator in his last fight getting knocked out by Thiago Santos. That was the first time Blachowicz was stopped by head strikes in his career. Blachowicz also has his back against the wall. He needs to win if he ever wants to realize his dream of UFC champion. A loss at 36 years old would dash all hopes of that in my opinion. Both of these fighters are going to come in motivated & hungry. Jan has a very good jab, and he keeps a high guard, using solid lateral movement, fakes and feints too set up his shots. He will double or even triple up on the jab. He is able to close the distance with long, straight punches and hooks, and is super-fast and accurate with his hands. In the pocket, he does a great job of landing short left and right hooks along with his uppercut. He has an excellent uppercut he will throw with bad intentions. He has great eyes in the pocket, is calm and uses good head movement to see the shots from his opponent coming and then counter. He has a nasty left body kick, but he doesn’t throw it as much as he used to. He has nice inside leg kicks. He will finish combinations with a nice clinch knee. He has 5 career KO/TKO’s & an insane chin. That chin was finally cracked in his last match, so we have to see how he recovers from a loss like that.
Blachowicz is a solid grappler & black belt himself. He is pretty strong in the clinch, he digs good underhooks and will land short shots inside. He has good timing on double leg takedowns. On top, he is very strong with good ground & pound and dangerous submissions. He showed some great strength in sweeping Nikita Krylov after he was taken down & dominating on top. He was able to transition with ease & always was looking for kimuras and straight armbars. He eventually took Krylov down again to start round two, quickly transitioned to side control, grabbed an arm triangle and closed the show. He has pretty solid takedown defense when he has the cardio, and he really lost in the past mainly due to cardio issues. When he’s faced fighters, who have pushed the wrestling, he has struggled to keep the pace & chain wrestlers take him down. He needs to avoid getting taken down at all costs in this fight. Jan does have 9 submissions & has been submitted one time.
This will be Rockhold’s first fight in the Light Heavyweight division. He is a great all-around fighter, but his biggest weakness has been his chin. He has been knocked out 4 times now and if the chin can’t keep up then he won’t be around the sport much longer. I do think not having to drop that extra 20 lbs to the Middleweight division is going to help Rockhold’s chin a good bit and I think this is a great first matchup to debut at 205. Jan is a solid fighter himself. He has heavy striking, solid takedowns and has fought some of the top guys in the division. Comparing the two fighter’s skills though, the only advantages I can really give Jan is maybe power and chin durability. He can absolutely test Rockhold’s chin here but if he doesn’t I don’t think he wins this fight. I think Rockhold is the better and more dangerous striker, and he is also more talented on the ground and more likely to get a submission. He can win this fight anywhere, but I think Jan is KO or bust. Rockhold’s chin is the only reason he isn’t over a 2/1 favorite here and at -175 I will take a 1u shot on him getting the win here. I think he can win this fight with a KO or sub, but I will take him to win a clear and unanimous decision.
Rockhold is my preferred play here and with this being the “mid-range” fight of the week I will likely be pretty heavily exposed to him and I will look to be overweight to the field. I think he is in play in all formats, but it is hard to trust his chin in cash games, so I prefer GPPs more. He has never scored less than 90-points in a win and he should have more KO power at 205 lbs. I like him on the feet or the ground here and I think if he wins he will get 10x or more. Jan is in play because of Rockhold’s chin. We need underdogs and he has one of the better shots of getting a KO upset. He is GPP only for me, but he is a guy I think we need to have some exposure to if we are multi-entering. I am guessing I will be between 15-25% on Jan, but I will have about double that amount with Rockhold.
Winner – Luke Rockhold via Unanimous Decision
Ben Askren $8,700 vs Jorge Masvidal $7,500
Ben Askren
Age: 34
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 71”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 4
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W19
Betting Odds: -230
Ben Askren vs Jorge Masvidal is an epic fight & huge grudge match. Askren has skyrocketed up the rankings since joining the UFC last year, and now is in a possible #1 contenders bout. At 19-0 he has definitely earned it, but he only has one controversial UFC win. He took a shellacking against Robbie Lawler early, getting slammed on his head, and almost knocked out cold with punches. He was able to steady himself & lock in a bulldog choke, that Herb Dean broke up early. Lawler said he was fine, but Askren was awarded the submission victory. Now Askren has his sights on a cleaner UFC victory against Masvidal. He has a very low risk style & it may not be the most fan pleasing, but his wrestling gets the job done. His striking is not his strong suit, and he is not very dangerous. He will throw a jab & overhand right. He will throw occasional leg kicks. His hands are very sloppy & he solely throws them to close the distance. Once he gets opponents tired in later rounds from grappling, he can land some well-timed stinging jabs. He will throw spinning back fists to close the distance. He will throw a left hook, straight-right hand. He likes to hold his hands out & open to parry & hand fight, but it makes him very hittable. He can get clipped with big overhands & straight punches. He can get hit with uppercuts & head kicks. He has a fantastic chin and has ate some big shots in previous fights. I’m not 100% sure if he’s ever gotten a standing KO/TKO, but he has 6 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Ben Askren is not going to fuck with the striking. He’s going to be in on the legs from the opening bell. Ben Askren’s wrestling & top game are top notch. He is a two-time NCAA Division 1 champion. When he gets in on the legs or a body lock & gets his hands together, there is no more defending the takedown. He has great double legs & can slam opponents with force. He will get nice body locks in the clinch. He will use a single leg, along with an ankle pick takedown. He does a great job of shooting in on the legs, coming up into a body lock & driving through on a takedown. He will shoot over & over if opponents defend & is relentless. In top position, Askren is amazing. He loves to get to side control & then the crucifix position. He will rain down heavy shots from there & has good control. He likes to get into the wrestling ride position where he will control a leg, get a seatbelt grip & land punches with the free hand. He will take the back & mount once his opponents are weathered and try to finish the fight. On the back he will flatten opponents out and go for ground & pound. He will attack with arm triangles & rear naked chokes. He has 5 career submissions. He is excellent at keeping top position, wearing on opponents, and keeping fighters on their backs. He has no problem going on his back either. His nickname is Funky & he does a fantastic job of creating scrambles. He will use butterfly hooks to offset the balance of opponents & slip out the back or get a underhook & come up into body locks. He will go for leg locks. He isn’t a big submission threat & likes to use more ground & pound.
Jorge Masvidal
Age: 34
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Florida
UFC Record: 10-6
Fight Matrix: 12
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +190
Jorge Masvidal was brought in as an opponent for Darren Till earlier this year. He was coming off of a year and half away from the octagon, and the fight was in Till’s home town. Masvidal shocked everyone with a devastating knockout, sparking Till out cold. Masvidal has shown big power since moving to 170 lbs. 4 of his 5 wins at 170 lbs are via KO/TKO. Askren & Masvidal are polar opposites & Askren has really gotten under Jorge’s skin. Masvidal has not even went to any of the press conferences or stare downs, not even wanting to see Askren. Masvidal is an extremely talented, well-rounded fighter. He can fight as a pressure fighter, as well as fight moving backwards. His distance control is elite & makes him a very hard fighter to beat. He has an amazing jab, and very good lead left hook. He will keep distance with the jab, then counter with left hooks. He has nice round & oblique kicks to the legs. He will throw a one-two down the middle and has nice right hooks & uppercuts. His right hook is extremely powerful & he can put the lights out with it. He will attack the body with nasty punches. He will throw hard, straight-rights & left hooks to the body. He has nice round & switch kicks to the liver. He will fake the left switch kick & throw knees up the middle to the body & head. He will throw nice head kicks & will stop opponents head movement, by trying to time the kick off his opponents slips. He will catch kicks & return with punches. He will throw nice wheel kicks to the head & lead leg hook kicks. Masvidal is very smart & cerebral in the cage and will have a game plan formulated on how to take Askren out. Masvidal had a tendency in the past to coast. He has lost several split decisions, in fights he clearly was superior. Masvidal is an OG. He has been fighting since the Kimbo backyard street fighting days. He has 14 KO/TKO’s and has been KO/TKO’d just one time.
Masvidal is a very underrated grappler. He is very good in the clinch and has nasty knees to the body. He is very good at landing shots off the break. He will throw hard elbows, break and then let go with a combination. He has a great inside trip & very good clinch wrestler. He is a very strong wrestler, both offensively & defensively. He has a very nice single leg takedown. He will transition from the single to the double leg or knee pick and get it to the ground. He has solid top control, but he really uses his takedowns to break his opponent’s rhythm more than anything. He has solid but not elite takedown defense. He has struggled with single legs & chain wrestling. He also is at a strength disadvantage in this match. He will attack with very nice front chokes to counter takedown attempts & get submissions or create scrambles. He has very good darces. Masvidal has two submissions & has been submitted twice. He has great cardio & can go all five rounds easy.
Here is our clear striker vs grappler match on the card. Askren is going to be looking for nonstop takedowns and if he can get them then he should dominate on the ground. He is one of the best wrestlers in MMA and he is very successful at getting the fight to the mat and keeping it there. He will also chain wrestle until he can get those takedowns, so he won’t be looking to stand long at all in this fight. If Masvidal can stuff takedowns then he will dominate the striking in this fight, but he is going to be very busy stuffing takedowns, so I think a knockout is a more likely path to victory for him. Masvidal is as tough as they come and seems to have been born to fight. He has been fighting since back in the Kimbo Slice days on YouTube in the backyard brawls. He has had a ton of success beating top competition in MMA as well and he is one of the best strikers in the sport. Masvidal is a solid grappler himself so I do think he will have success stopping some takedowns, but I think Askren will eventually get them and when he does he will stay in top control and win rounds with his wrestling. This will not be the most exciting fight IMO, but I do think the winner is in line for a title shot. I will take Askren by 30-27 decision, but Jorge is one of the more live underdogs on the card.
I think Masvidal is going to be the underdog chalk of the week. I do like him, and I think he has one of the best shots at a high scoring upset on the card. I think he will need over 30-35% though to have any leverage at all over the field and I am not sure I want to go that high. I am not against it, I just think he loses this fight and spends most of the match on his back. I will for sure have exposure to him and he is playable in all formats, but I might be a bit underweight to him. I will say Askren is my preferred play because if he can end up on the nuts he will kill off a lot of Masvidal lineups and I think he will be lower owned as well. I think he is playable in all formats and he could go out there and get 10 takedowns because he won’t want to spend any time on the feet against Gamebred. I will try to be overweight to Askren, but I could see him getting 85-90 points in a win and I am not sure that would be enough for the $100k lineup.
Winner – Ben Askren via Unanimous Decision
Amanda Nunes $9,100 vs Holly Holm $7,100
Amanda Nunes
Age: 31
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 10-1
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -380
Amanda Nunes continues her quest to be the best of all time. She has beaten 4 all-time greats in Cyborg, Shevchenko, Rousey & Tate. Now she is getting the chance at another scalp in Holly Holm. Nunes is excellent at using feints & footwork to cut off the cage & back opponents up. She has a strong jab, and she throws it very stiff, busting the faces of her opponents, and forcing ugly shots from too far outside. She has a clubbing right hand, and huge power in this shot. She will throw the right hand straight down the pipe, and over the top very effectively. She doesn’t look for much else besides a one-two and is very meat and potatoes with her striking. She has nasty low leg kicks, and a few kicks can damage the leg of her opponent. She has 11 KO/TKO’s in her career and has been finished twice by TKO. Her chin to me is very good & both of those TKO’s happened on the ground.
Nunes is a very strong grappler as well, and it’s what she should try to use for this fight imo. She has a good Muay Thai plum clinch and can land hard knees to the body & head. She has nice inside trips. Nunes is a judo brown belt and very physically strong in the clinch. She doesn’t go for many takedowns I feel because she is worried about her gas tank. When she does get on top she is nasty. She is a black belt & great passer. She will transition right into a dominant position & has great ground & pound. She hasn’t showed off much of her grappling since the first Valentina Shevchenko fight. She has good back takes & rear naked chokes. She isn’t a big submission threat with just three & she has been submitted one time. The one chink in her armor has been her cardio, but even that looks improved now. She has all the confidence in the world & is ready to put on a show here.
Holly Holm
Age: 37
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 5-4
Fight Matrix: 3
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +315
Holly Holm is getting another chance to shock the world. She is coming back over one year off & both girls last fights were at 145 lbs. Holm hasn’t had the same success vs those all-time greats that Nunes defeated. She is just 1-3 losing to Cyborg, Shevchenko & Tate, and defeating Ronda Rousey. Holm is 37 years old & this is most likely her last shot at being UFC champion again. Holm is a former boxing champion but has really made her money with her kicks in MMA. She likes to use her feints, footwork & movement to pot shot opponents on the outside with kicks. Holms boxing is more used as a countering mechanism. She will throw jabs & crosses out there to try to gauge distance, but she can struggle to find her range with punches when forced to go first. She is very good though at countering with her straight-left hand & exiting. She also has a nice check right hook. Her lead leg is very active. She will use the oblique kicks to the knees to close the distance. She will also throw nasty, lead leg sidekicks to the body & head. Her left kick is the more powerful of the two. She will attack with nice round kicks to the inside of the legs, body & head. Once she gets opponents reaching to the body, she will bring the kick up to the head. She has a very nice question mark kick. Holm will slip shots & return with kicks, and opponents always have to be weary of it when they’re fighting her. She has multiple head kick knockouts. She has 8 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes in MMA.
Holm has rounded out her game & we finally got to see some wrestling from her in her last match. She was able to get multiple clinch takedowns against Megan Anderson & smothered her from top position. She isn’t really dangerous on top, but she has good control. In the clinch, she is very physically strong. She will back opponents to the cage easily with double underhooks. She doesn’t get much offense off from the position, but she can control & stall. She was able to do this against the much bigger Cris Cyborg. In this match, with Nunes having a tough weight cut, this may be is a smart strategy to try to use & zap some of her energy by controlling her. Holm is very good at defending judo in the clinch as shown in the Rousey fight which Nunes is a black belt in. Holm has good distance control & is tough to takedown. She really has only been taken down by Miesha Tate, and she defended the majority of her takedowns. Holm off her back probably will be in trouble. She was submitted by Miesha Tate, but she is not in the quick tap club. She will most likely not tap if in a bad position. Holm has been submitted one time & has zero submissions. She has always shown good cardio & comes ready to go to war.
We get two GOATs on the same card. Jon Jones is the best male fighter I have ever seen. Now we have Nunes defending her belt as well, and after her knockout over Cris Cyborg, she is the clear P4P greatest female fighter of all time. If she can beat Holly Holm here then she would have beaten Cyborg, Ronda Rousey, Miesha Tate, Valentina Shevchenko, and Holly. That would be an amazing resume. I think Holly is the more technical fighter here and if she can keep this fight at kickboxing range then she is live in this fight. She is going to need to hit and move for 5-rounds or knock Amanda out. She has the ability to do either, but Amanda is a monster and I don’t see her letting Holly control where this fight takes place. Amanda is the more powerful striker and if she can make this a dirty fight then she will win the striking exchanges and can finish with a knockout herself. On the ground is where Nunes will have the biggest advantage though and I think she should be able to dominate with little risk if she can get it there. I do think she will stand with Holly for a while, but I think she will be going for takedowns in basically every round and if she can get them I think she will pull off a submission win within 25-minutes.
This is our first 5-round fight of the card and one I will be heavily exposed to overall. I will have a lot more Nunes and she will be a core fighter of mine, but I will have some hedge LUs on Holly as well. I will almost surely put Nunes in cash and I think she has a solid floor and should get a win here. Holly Holm fights are not usually the best fights to target on DraftKings though, so her style could take away points from the winner. She won’t be looking for any takedowns here, so she will need a knockout to score highly even with 25-minutes to work with. Nunes has a high ceiling still even against Holly’s style because she has KO power and she is dominant on the ground as well and should have a big edge there in this matchup. Nunes will be one of my highest 3 owned fighters this week and Holly will be used as more of a hedge to all that Nunes exposure. I would not stack this fight in cash though, so it will be solo Nunes for me.
Winner – Amanda Nunes via 2nd round Submission
Jon Jones $9,600 vs Thiago Santos $6,600
Jon Jones
Age: 31
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 84.5”
Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 18-1-1
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -650
Jon Jones is coming right back to defend his throne. This will be his third fight in quick succession & he’s slowly gaining the respect back that he lost. He is being talked about again as the greatest of all time & no one has been able to figure him out yet. He has looked dominant in his two return bouts & is looking for more of the same vs Santos. Jon Jones is a great kicker and uses his reach fantastically. He throws leg & oblique kicks to the knees, and front kicks & teips to the body. The oblique kicks to the knees break the rhythm of his opponents and makes it hard for them to get their games going. Jones has a decent jab, a good overhand right and check left hook. His left hook is very effective. He prefers to land shorter combinations in exchanges rather than get in extended combinations. Jones always has his lead arm extended to keep range and is notorious for poking fighters in the eyes because of this. He likes to control one wrist and come over the top with elbows and is very good in close range as well. He will throw nasty spinning elbows, front elbows, and he possibly has the best elbows in the game. Jones has nasty head kicks from southpaw with little to no tell and can get them up to the target quickly. He pelted Gustafsson with many head kicks in their first match and finished Daniel Cormier with a head kick. His boxing looked much improved vs Gustafsson and he only continues to get better. He did coast a little vs Anthony Smith, but it was a dominant win. Jones has never been known as a big power puncher, but he has 10 KO/TKO’s on his record, and a hell of chin. He has never even been dropped in a fight.
Jones is phenomenal in the clinch. He has nasty front elbows, elbows over the top from the single collar clinch, and he breaks the clinch with a nasty spinning back elbow. He has nasty uppercuts in the clinch, and strong knees to the body & head. He wears fighters out in the clinch and has great cardio. He will use what some people call a dirty technique, where he wrenches on his opponent’s shoulders. He was able to pull Teixeria’s shoulder out of socket and severally diminished him for the remainder of their fight. He is an incredible MMA wrestler. Jones likes to back opponents to the fence where he has a strong double leg takedown. He has good inside trips in the clinch, and strong body locks. He has a good single leg as well and does a good job of chaining his takedowns together until he can find the takedown. On top, Jones has some of the best G&P in MMA history. He has vicious elbows, he can smash opponents with elbows even from the full guard. He was able to batter Alex Gustafsson from mount before Gustafsson gave the back & Jones finished the fight. He likes to get the crucifix to throw nasty elbows, and he also has a great mount. He has been doing a lot of BJJ lately, and he has rounded out that part of his game as well. He has a nasty guillotine choke that he can get from standing position, such as vs Lyoto Machida. His arms will help him in setting up chokes on the ground, and I see him trying to get this fight to the mat quickly. Jones has 6 career submissions & has never been submitted himself.
Thiago Santos
Age: 35
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 13-5
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +475
Thiago Santos, one of the most prolific knockout artists in UFC history is getting his shot at UFC gold. Since moving up to 205 lbs he is 3-0 with 3 knockouts. He always has the chance to put someone’s lights out & it gives this fight some intrigue. Santos is a devastating striker, and one of the best kickers in the sport. His hands are not as good, but he has power and is very aggressive. He showed improvements to his hands in his last fight. He hurt Manuwa with a big right hand and finished him with a left uppercut, right hook, left hook combination. He likes to close the distance with powerful leaping hooks. He has a good long, left hook and will try to follow it up with a rear right uppercut. Santos’ switch kick is one of the most powerful strikes in MMA. He will fold fighters with body kicks and put them to sleep with head kicks. He likes to use inside leg kicks to set up his left kick to the body, and if he can land it clean the fight is most likely over. Santos is usually the fighter who likes to move forward, but he will use stance switching to set up counter kicks. He does a good job of switching to southpaw to give a little ground to his opponent, and immediately landing the left kick as they come forward. Santos also has a nasty spinning hook kick. He finished Jack Marshman with it, and it’s a scary technique. Santos is hittable and doesn’t take shots well. He can get too overaggressive with his hands and get countered and clipped. He also is very bad defensively against the cage. He doesn’t keep a high guard and instead tries to fight out of it by throwing wide hooks. It gives opponents chances to counter and hurt him. Santos has 14 KO/TKO’s in his career and been finished 3 times by strikes himself.
Santos has improved his grappling and is now a solid wrestler. He does a good job of using punches & kicks to back his opponents to the fence, where he will get easy double legs. On top, he will throw brutal ground & pound. He has nasty elbows to the body & head and will throw heavy hammer fists. He has good control in top position, and when he gets on top of opponents, he definitely does damage. He isn’t a submission threat and will really only look for ground & pound. Santos has good takedown defense himself. He will sprawl on attempts and does a good job of making opponents pay with short elbows when they attempt to take him down. He battered Jack Hermannson with shots as he tried to take him down before finishing him. Santos can get off balance when he throws certain kicks, and Anthony Smith was able to capitalize and move directly into mount off of a slip. He can be exploited on the ground off his back. Eric Spicely was able to quickly submit him & he doesn’t want to be on his back with Jon on top of him. Santos has only 1 career submission & has been submitted twice. Santos does tend to gas & I don’t see him being able to keep the same pace for 5 rounds. He has finished 16 of his 21 wins & been finished in 5 of his 6 losses.
In my opinion, Jon Jones is the greatest fighter of all time and it’s not even close. I think with today’s competition the only way he is going to lose is by getting knocked out. Santos does have some of the heaviest power in the division and can knock anybody out with the right shot. That is his path to victory here, but it is his only path. If Santos can win this fight I think he will be losing every second of it before that point and it would be a head kick KO or a heavy counter haymaker. Aside from that, this is Jon Jones’ fight to lose. He is going to be far superior in every aspect of MMA here. He will be the fighter who controls the pace of this fight. He will also control where it takes place. I think he will bully Santos on the feet and keep him moving backwards and then eventually going for takedowns and dominating on the ground. I think 25-minutes is too long for Santos to last with Jones here, so I think Jones gets a finish on the ground whether that be a submission or a ground and pound TKO. I think Jones should be able to cruise in this fight and hopefully he can get two more fights in before the year ends.
This will be my highest owned fight this week and I think it is stackable in cash as well. My preferred play is Jon Jones and he will be one of my highest owned fighters on the slate. He will also be the highest owned fighter by the field, so we are going to need over 50-60% to get leverage on him. I will have more than that myself but if you are making a couple lineups and chasing that $100k then fading him and maybe even both championship fights might be a good idea to set yourself apart from the field. Jones is the highest priced fighter on the card, so he will likely need the most points if he is going to end up on that $100k lineup. There are a lot of people who could outscore him on this card, so I would have no issue if you want to go underweight. He is my most confident win on the card though, so I will be overweight, and he is a lock in my cash lineup. Santos is also going to be a hedge play but I am confident that he ends up on the optimal lineup if he gets the win. The only way he wins is if he gets a KO and as the cheapest fighter on the card that would put him on the top lineup. I will probably have 15% or so Santos this week and I might stack this fight in cash as well as a way to hedge a bit more since I will have Jones in more than 75 lineups.
Winner – Jon Jones via 1st round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://MMAoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/
- Bets are on a 1-10u scale with 1u = $100.
I am 84-52 for +259.21u (+$25,421) since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets.