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MLB “Daily Umpire Impact” Advice for DFS DraftKings/FanDuel/Yahoo June 15th

I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast.  Click that link to find me on Twitter.  My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day, you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.

Not to sound too braggadocios, but we win.  And, we win a lot.  Yes, MLB has its ups and downs, but proper bankroll management, a consistent process, lots of experience, and constant guidance from coaching produces results.  Period.  I show you this to show you the staff/coaching wins consistently….and we can show you how.  What I also hope you see is that umpires make a difference.  Leveraging them, as you will see below, can give you an edge the rest of the industry barely talks about.  Any edge helps…

Daily Umpire Impact

We’ve got an eight-game slate tonight with all of the umps released. We’ve got one of the most inconsistent groups of umpires we’ve seen all year.

We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”

Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.

Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.

“Hit Mitts”

There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.

“Box Callers”

On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.

The Squeeze 

(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)

(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)

 

 

TEX@CIN Mike Minor (L)/Tanner Roark (R)

Ron Kulpa 17.02 K/9  6.14 BB/9  .259 AVG  9.63 R/9

Kulpa has a low zone overall. He’s pretty fair on the corners but doesn’t extend much up in the zone. He is a solid pitcher’s umpire, but the top plays in this game still come from the left-handed power on the Rangers side. Minor is a tough sell at 9.7K on DK tonight facing an almost all right-handed lineup.

 

 

STL@NYM Michael Wacha (R)/Noah Syndergaard (R)

Brian O’Nora 16.31 K/9  6.21 BB/9  .244 AVG  8.88 R/9

O’Nora is an interesting guy to breakdown. He actually tends to favor the batter side of the plate. When you watch him call games he is one of the guys who stands much closer to the hitter’s side than the average ump. This tends to let strikes creep inside on both sides of the plate. I don’t see a real benefit for either arm though. Play this game exactly as planned.

 

 

NYY@CWS Chad Green (R)/Reynaldo Lopez (R)

Phil Cuzzi 16.9 K/9  6.23 BB/9  .248 AVG  8.45 R/9

Cuzzi extends on the outer edges as much as 5 inches off the plate. He tends to expand the zone as the game progresses as well. Guys that can establish the corner early thrive with Cuzzi, but this isn’t a great fit for Lopez and his curveball. It’s hard to get excited about the matchup here. I wouldn’t fade the Yankees because of Cuzzi either, but in the past we’ve seen Cuzzi kill stacks in great spots. I’ll stick to one-off power or three man stacks here.

 

 

KC@MIN Glenn Sparkman (R)/Jake Odorizzi (R)

Angel Hernandez 16.73 K/9  5.9 BB/9  .251 AVG  8.61 R/9

We know exactly what to expect from Angel and that’s inconsistency. He misses strikes in the zone and calls strikes off the dish. Expect to hear some chirping early from both sides. There are some strikeouts to chase here for Odorizzi, but I’d rather have a tight and fair zone with consistency than whatever we see tonight from Angel. It’s just a matter of paying off that 10K salary for Odorizzi, but there is enough to like here to take a chance on him in tournaments.

 

 

SD@COL Eric Lauer (L)/German Marquez (R)

Bill Welke 16.50 K/9  6.45 BB/9  .256 AVG  9.45 R/9

Welke is inconsistent and favors the right side of the plate. We should see missed calls on both sides. It’s a real concern for a crafty lefty like Lauer who will have to rely entirely on the Rockies expanding their zones. Welke is a fine umpire for Coors stacks tonight.

 

 

PHI@ATL Aaron Nola (R)/Sean Newcomb (L)

Jim Reynolds 16.96 K/9  6.84 BB/9  .253 AVG  9.22 R/9

Reynolds is inconsistent. He will give the away strike usually, but he also will miss some strikes up in the zone. Overall, play this game as neutral, especially for Nola. I have much more concern for Newcomb if he cannot establish himself in the zone early. Be very careful using Newcomb tonight. You won’t find better value than the top of the Phillies order tonight, and I love stacking against Newcomb’s lack of command and the Braves shaky bullpen.

 

 

SEA@OAK Gerson Bautista (R)/Frankie Montas (R)

Carlos Torres 16.75 K/9  6.75 BB/9  .250 AVG  9.60 R/9

Torres has an inconsistent and frustrating zone. He can be tight on most edges except on the strike away that hits a spot. Overall, I expect some missed calls tonight and some chirping from both benches. Play the game straight up for hitters since they likely benefit more than they are hurt by the inconsistency tonight.

 

 

CHC@LAD Yu Darvish (R)/Walker Buehler (R)

Chris Segal  17.04 K/9  5.86 BB/9  .246 AVG  8.98  R/9

Segal has a low and wide zone. He’s a solid fit for both arms since Buehler loves to establish the low and away strike. Segal should help Darvish at least avoid a 5+ walk outing, but he is by no means safe tonight. The matchups are tough for both arms, but if you were leaning here already then I’d consider them in tournaments. The high dollar bats from this game should be overlooked in tournaments tonight.

 

 

Congrats to our latest hot streak winner, Arky!  Arky has been with us awhile and it’s great to see him start to hit his stride.  Toss your winners in #winning-lineups for a little shoutout love!

 

 

Top Stacks

Rockies

 

Twins

 

Padres

 

Phillies (Value)

 

Cubs/Dodgers (Contrarian)

 

 

 

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