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Hunting Homers – DFS MLB Power Picks and Homeruns for Higher Fanduel and Draftkings Scores – June 18

Welcome to a test version of a future MLB article from your friends at DFS Army.  The goal of this piece will be to find those homeruns that boost your DFS scores and have you leapfrogging leaderboard spots in bunches.  We will focus solely on power numbers for both bats and pitchers, and we will largely center around the ISO metric indicating raw power.

All numbers cited are produced for VIPs daily inside our MLB Research Station.  We may cross-reference some with Trends tabs, Pitching Hubs, and various other stats, but we largely focus on the hitter’s ISO and the pitcher’s ISO against.  We aim to find strength on weakness, so let’s dive in for today’s quick Hunting Homers plays…

Main Slate #200on200 MLB Picks for June 18

Mitch Keller – .307 ISO vs right-handed bats – Keller has some bad qualities we can pick on.  He gives up 44% Hard Contact and allows free baserunners at a whopping 5.14 BB/9 clip.  His 3.00 WHIP confirms he pitches very few clean innings, and his 4.87 SIERA suggests these trends are likely to continue.  We can feast on this potentially with these DET bats in play (for gpps still) – Dixon, Castellanos (194 ISO vs RHP) as the Tigers just don’t have a lot to offer in this spot.

Anthony DeSclafani – .290 ISO vs left-handed bats – DeSclafani also gives Hard Contact at a 42% clip, he is in a hitter’s park tonight, and carries a slate-high 21.4 in the “bad” column of DFSA grades.  Add in the 1.9 HR/9 allowed (also slate-high) and you have a recipe for some fireworks.  Facing the Astros is no picnic.  HOU bats in play – Yordan Alvarez on an incredibly small sample….if even on the roster right now, and Michael Brantley (.195 ISO vs RHP) isn’t the best to attack with, so this is another sort of wasted opportunity tonight.  But, trust me……it gets better as we read!

Remember to ensure your bats are in the starting lineup…or even up in the majors.  I’m mentioning my sheet as inclusively as possible and am not looking at starting lineups being released.  It is your responsibility to cross check with other research and to make sure your hitters of choice don’t come blindly off someone’s list.  You need to make sure they are not injured and they are actually going to see at bats today.

Zach Plesac – .258 ISO vs right-handed bats/.245 ISO to left-handed bats – Both sides of the plate are in play here, and I tend to like spots like these for large rallies when the pitcher just can’t seem to get anyone out for a stretch.  Plesac might be our guy at 40% fly balls and 1.82 HR/9 suggesting we might get a rally going and get lucky with the big bomb wiping the bases clean and shooting us up a leaderboard.  TEX bats in play – Choo, Cabrera, Guzman are all over .200. But, really all of them are in play because almost all TEX bats carry over a .175 ISO vs right-handed pitching.  Potentially yummy spot.

Yusei Kikuchi – .258 ISO vs left-handed bats/.195 ISO to right-handed bats – Another with potentials struggles facing either handedness of batter.  Kikuchi is a bit of an enigma right now, but I don’t mind using these numbers to attack him tonight.  He also offers us a 1.79 HR/9 and a pretty large 4.94 SIERA suggesting he might allow some big innings or get us into a bullpen early.  SEA also gives up a lot of HRs as a team, so that’s a bonus for chasing him early, too.  KC bats in play – Kelvan Gutierrez is a long shot to even play (might not be up with the club) but he has a great ISO vs lefties….and he is a lefty for the ultimate in low ownership punt plays if he cracks the lineup.  Since he likely won’t, though, I’d stick with the standards of Merrifield, Mondesi, and Soler and simply watch the lineup for a sneaky 4th addition should the miracle present itself.  Good news is if he starts and does nothing, he’ll be so cheap it won’t even hurt you……….very low risk gpp punt if it happens.

Michael Pineda – .246 ISO vs right-handed bats – Wow, Michael…..42% fly balls?  1.81 HR/9?  4.51 SIERA?  Ouch, I used to use you as my pitcher, too.  BOS bats in play – Betts (.256 ISO), JD Martinez (.280), Bogaerts (.243), Chavis (.204), and I won’t be a bit surprised to see a couple of them go yard tonight.

If you guys are interested in seeing more metrics I love to use, check this older strategy piece out –> Top 3 Favorite Stats for MLB.  And, while you’re at it, since I linked you to the Strategy Section, kick through those back pages for a ton of goodies you might not even know you had as a VIP.  Feel free to bookmark them and help other new members find them as well….

Adrian Sampson – .243 ISO vs right-handed bats/.196 vs left-handed bats – Another pitcher with a ton of bad metrics pointing at him tonight… 17.6 DFSA grade, 21.3 “bad” in DFSA grade, 44% Hard Contact, 43% fly balls, 1.79 HR/9 is just the shorter list where I just stopped digging and said, “Stack me up please.”  CLE bats in play – Ramirez (.248 ISO vs RHP), Lindor (.242), Santana also over .200

Gabriel Ynoa – .237 ISO vs right-handed bats – And, this dude allows a pretty large 1.91 HR/9 to a team capable of hitting his handedness.  Add in the 4.76 SIERA and I like what I see in the matchup.  OAK bats in play – Chapman (.243), Davis (.280), Laureano (.194), Piscotty (.198)

Daniel Norris – .235 ISO vs left-handed bats.  PIT bat in play – Gregory Polanco is close at (.188).

Homer Bailey – .231 ISO vs left-handed bats – Homer also gives us a 4.81 SIERA to feast on.  SEA bats in play – Vogelbach (.287), Seager (.189), Crawford (.189)………..use this type of matchup for a value play with Crawford.  Cheap and it makes sense for a decent shot at a home run.

Ivan Nova – .217 ISO vs left-handed bats – I wonder what the Cubs can do against him?  CHC bats in play – Rizzo, Schwarber, Carlos Gonzalez (.182…..he’s close)

JA Happ – .200 ISO vs right-handed bats – We round off the #200on200 stuff with JA Happ who might fall off this list tonight if he doesn’t allow a lot of pop against him.  But, we’ll still target righties against him when it makes sense.  I hope you are learning who to watch going forward here, too.  You will see the same names so often, and memorize which handedness gives the pitcher fits, to the point you will almost not even need this article.  You might only check to see if the names you remember are currently running hot……that’s kind of what I do.  TB bats in play – Diaz, Garcia

MLB Honorable Mentions

Facing pitchers close, but not over, the .200 ISO allowed mark…

WAS – Soto/Adams vs Arrieta
COL – Story/Reynolds/Arenado/Iannetta vs Kelly
ARI – Walker/Cron vs Senzatela

*This #200on200 thing is just one parameter in which you might look through the RS for when choosing thunder bats*.

Quick Summary

Obviously, there are many other MLB coaching notes, methodologies, and processes to evaluate. But, ISO given up by a pitcher to the power ISO of a bat just makes logical sense and is here to point out great matchups………..not predict results. In conjunction with other factors, though, you can really find some 5-star matchups tonight and put yourself in a great position to accumulate some points in bunches. Try it tonight.

(One way to crosscheck this number is to look at L7 woba (in Trends tab of our Research Station) and see who is also hitting well recently. I would be less excited about some great #200on200 guy hitting .150 woba over the last week than if I found some guy hitting a .500 and tearing the cover off the ball when he finds this kind of matchup tonight.)

Until next time, I’ll see you inside our coaching rooms at DFS Army!