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DFS Golf: US Open – Five Finger Discount

It’s the year’s third major, the US Open and if you want to load up on studs in your Milly Maker lineup you need to find some bargain values to afford them!  

My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year for DFS golf with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!

US Open at Pebble Beach? Does it get any more classic than that?! Pebble Beach has held US Opens in 1972198219922000, and 2010, and the list of winners is a who’s who of golf. Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Tom Kite, Tiger Woods, and Graeme McDowell. It’s also hosted the yearly AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am every year since 1947 (Formerly the Bing Crosby Clam Bake). This is a fantastic week and we have you covered from every angle, I’ll have my full GPP write up out on Wednesday with a course breakdown, ownership projections, weather forecast, and GPP strategy, the research station will be loaded Monday night, and our coaches notes will be published Wednesday along with coaches notes for every round of showdown! And the best part? it’s all FREE THIS WEEK. We also have a VIP Swag contest with added prizes for our VIPs, but you need to subscribe to get into that!

Everything PGA related is OPEN TO THE PUBLIC!!! Check out all of our tools, the research station, articles, and coaches notes here —-> DFS Army PGA Content

With the Draftkings Milly Maker and Fanduel Mega Eagle on the horizon you likely are already building lineups and noticing that while the pricing is fairly soft, you still need to find some value plays to let you afford the studs you want in your lineup. Have no fear, I’m here to help you identify the best bargains that can help you find a big win on Sunday. While there are tons of cheap options, and some that will be fairly popular, its likely to be the diamond in the rough that sneaks out a top ten finish to get you climbing the leaderboard on Sunday. I call these players Five Finger Discounts because they are a steal at their price and ownership!

 

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What’s a Five Finger Discount?

If you’re not familiar with the term “Five Finger Discount” it essentially means to steal something. Using your “Five Fingers” to get a “discount” on something. In DFS Golf I consider “Five Finger Discount” players to be guys that are cheap and low owned, or ‘discounted’. Obviously just being cheap and low owned isn’t enough, they need to provide some value too!

There are a couple of rules that I use for my Five Finger Discount Players:

  1. The player must come in under $7300 on Draftkings. This is what I would consider a ‘bargain’ price, especially during a major with soft pricing
  2. The player must come in under 8% owned. There will be lots of players down here who will be very popular (12% or more in ownership), those are easy guys to identify, I want to help you find that low owned play that really gives you leverage on the field.

And that’s it, typically I also like to look for players that have winning upside, but in a major like the US Open where there is almost guaranteed to be carnage due to the way the USGA sets up the course, I don’t think you necessarily need that. First and foremost they have to make the cut, anything after that is gravy for the most part, but they do need some upside if you want to take down a GPP.

DFS Army VIP DoinStuff took down the Bev Cart on DK last week for a cool 6K! He built his lineup using two of the CORE plays he found in our Coaches Notes to help him win! 

Five Finger Discount Players:

Note: All of these players are for GPP only. Five Finger Discounts are not SAFE by any means, just like the real thing.  

Also, an important piece here is that many of the ‘lesser known’ Euros are priced down which makes them a bit more appealing, especially at a coastal course with wind, which should fit their game.

Danny Willett: DK $6800/FD $8100

Projected Ownership: 6%-8%  

Danny Willett’s game is finally starting to get back to the type of form he showed when he won the Masters in 2016. Following his win at Augusta, he battled a series of injuries, particularly with his back that really held him back, but in 2019 he has started to pop again, particularly over the last three weeks. Over the last three weeks, he’s had finishes of 8th, 27th, and 41st and has gained strokes in every area, including with the putter in two of those three events. (Canadian Open, Memorial, PGA championship). The putter is typically always the issue with Willett as he can be dreadfully bad, but it’s encouraging that it is heating up, and if we go back to the west coast swing from earlier this season, he gained strokes putting in back to back weeks on Poa putting surfaces at the Genesis and Farmers.

Willett is a grinder, he’s not excellent in any area, but he’s solid in everything. He excels at these difficult courses or where scoring is difficult.  Another positive for Willett this week is that he absolutely crushed in SG: Around the Green at the RBC gaining a massive 5.5 strokes which were second in the field. That will be huge this week with the small greens at Pebble that will be difficult to hit and require those who miss them to be adept with the wedge around the green to get it close and make par. Pebble should be right up his alley and I think he finds himself towards the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Check out Brody’s Super Picks for cash games here —> Schnarr’s Super Picks

Erik Van Rooyen: DK $6900/FD $8100

Projected Ownership: 6%-8%

It’s entirely possible that Van Rooyen ends up higher owned than this, but right now this is the area he’s trending towards and if that’s the case I’ll be smashing him at 2-3x that ownership. If you’ve been watching golf and paying attention the last few weeks, you’ve likely noticed his name towards the top of the leaderboard despite not getting much screen time due to not being a regular on the PGA tour. EVR, (which is a lot easier to type than his full name) wrapped up a 20th place finish at the RBC Canadian Open last week and prior to that was 8th at the PGA, touching the top of the leaderboard at points. Since March, EVR has four top 10’s on the Euro and PGA tour, to go with only two missed cuts, one being the week after his excellent performance at the PGA Championship.

These performances have vaulted him all the way up to 87th in the OWGR and the reason for this recent run of great form has been excellent ball striking from tee to green. Last week at the RBC Canadian Open he was second to only Henrik Stenson in fairways hit and was seventh overall in strokes gained tee to green. His ball striking should make him an absolutely fantastic fit for Pebble Beach. He keeps it in the fairway and hits a ton of greens in regulation. He gets a little hot with his putter and we may see a third straight top 20 finish in a major from him.

Key Stats to look for this week –   SG: Approach, Driving Accuracy, Birdies Gained, Par 4 Scoring, Long Par 3 Scoring, SG: Around the Green, and Projected Course Score.

You can find all of these key stats in our DFS Army research station accessible ONLY for our VIPs usually, but this week it is FREE and OPEN to the public!

–> PGA Research Station <–

Rafa Cabrera Bello: DK $7300/FD $8900

Projected Ownership: 3%-5% 

(Note: Rafa was in this exact spot for the PGA and while he made the cut, he only finished 71st, I think he’s in as good, if not a better spot for the US Open)

Rafa is about as steady as they come. He doesn’t pound it off the tee, but he’s long enough and he’s extremely accurate, which we obviously want here. He finds himself in the fairway and hits lots of greens in regulation. While I usually have some concern that he can’t get it up an down if he misses the green, he somehow was third in the field at the Memorial with a massive 6.1 strokes gained around the green.

Rafa is the rare Euro that is actually better on Poa Annua greens than any other surface. He gains strokes in difficult rounds and is one of the best wind players in the world. This is Pebble Beach, even if the wind doesn’t look to be too crazy right, it’s absolutely going to play a factor.

There’s also the little note that this, according to his twitter, is his favorite golf course, and he even popped on the leaderboard here in the 2010 US Open in the first round before falling back to a 47th place finish. He also has back to back top 25 finishes at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM the last two years.

Rafa has made 11 of his last 13 cuts at majors including two top 10’s. As of late, he’s made 11 of 12 cuts on the PGA tour with 7 top 30 finishes. He’s just extremely consistent. He’s game transfers well to all sorts of courses, and at $7300 I think he brings enough upside here (though if you want to play him in Cash this week I can absolutely get on board), that he makes a great GPP play at low ownership.

Collin Morikawa: DK $6700/FD $7500

Projected Ownership: 1%-3%

We were on young Collin last week at similar ownership at the RBC Canadian Open and I see no reason not to go right back to him this week after he put on quite a solid performance up north. Morikawa is a former world number one amateur who qualified for this tournament at one of the toughest sectionals, Brookside and Scioto, beating the likes of Joel Dahmen, Cam Champ, Joaquin Niemann, Ryan Moore, and Charley Hoffman in the process. He then went up to Canada and finished 14th in his professional debut while gaining strokes in every major category. The key to his success wasn’t necessarily fantastic iron play or pounding the ball off the tee but his consistency in every single aspect. He hit a ton of fairways and greens, made some putts when he needed to and scrambled when he needed to.

This is a kid you’re going to hear about for a long time. He has a ton of game and proved that last week in Canada. Throw in that he grew up in California and is used to play on this sort of poa and he makes a fantastic cheap low owned GPP play. If I have one concern it’s that he struggled when the US Amateur was held here last year, making the round of 64 but losing in the first round of stroke play and never shooting under par, he’s clearly playing much better golf right now though.

Lucas Glover: DK $7000/FD $8800

Projected Ownership: 2%-4% 

Why does everyone forget about the Glove?! The former US Open winner is on an absolute tear this year, yet continually is underowned in DFS. Glover was 7th here earlier in the year and has the perfect sort of game for this type of course. In fact, he’s absolutely crushed here over the years at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, having finished 7th and 11th in his last two trips. He’s been getting done on the back of some excellent driving of the ball, combined with elite iron play. He’s a typically poor putter and if he gets it going at all he should be able to find his way up the leaderboard.

He’s not going to light this course up with birdies, but he is one of the best in the field at avoiding bogeys and double bogeys. In fact, he’s third in this field in Double Bogey Avoidance, which should be key this week as we will likely some carnage as usual with any US Open.

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Final Thoughts: 

US Open Week!! I always caution to be smart about your bankroll, but with a Major, let it slide a little bit and let’s have some fun! There are tons of great contests with really solid payout structures. You don’t have to play the Milly Maker! The only lineups I’ll have in there are from contest tickets I won. There are MUCH better contests elsewhere if you want to have a positive ROI.

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