US Open at Pebble Beach? Doesn’t get any more classic than that! Who can tame the links course and take home the third major of the season!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to DFS Army! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year for DFS golf with my weekly preview, ‘Chalk Donkey’ article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!
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US Open at Pebble Beach? Does it get any more classic than that?! Pebble Beach has held US Opens in 1972, 1982, 1992, 2000, and 2010, and the list of winners is a who’s who of golf. Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Tom Kite, Tiger Woods, and Graeme McDowell. It’s also hosted the yearly AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am every year since 1947 (Formerly the Bing Crosby Clam Bake). This is a fantastic week and we have you covered from every angle, I’ll have my full GPP write up out on Wednesday with a course breakdown, ownership projections, weather forecast, and GPP strategy, the research station will be loaded Monday night, and our coaches notes will be published Wednesday along with coaches notes for every round of showdown! And the best part? it’s all FREE THIS WEEK. We also have a VIP Swag contest with added prizes for our VIPs, but you need to subscribe to get into that!
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Course Breakdown:
Pebble Beach Golf Links is located on the Monterey Peninsula and has long been a stop on the PGA Tour. It’s a links style on the coast meaning that there are very few trees on the property and the prevailing winds typically wreak havoc on players ball flight.
Above is how the course played during the 2010 US open and should give us a bit of an idea of how it will play this year. The course will play as a par 71 (as opposed to the par 72 it plays at during the Pro Am) and should measure over 7100 with the lengthening they did on some of the holes. The greens are poa annua and are some of the smallest players will play all year. In 2010, the course played at an average of 3.9 strokes over par. If we look we can see that hole 4, a short par 4, and hole 6, a shortish par 5 were the only holes to play under par for the week, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see something similar this week, though the forecast looks pretty nice for low scores but more on that later. It is interesting to note that bogeys almost doubled birdies for the week, not something you usually see.
While this course is not long (in fact one of the shortest courses that will ever host a major) that doesn’t mean it’s an easy test by any means. Being seaside and open to the wind, there is a ton of trouble here, whether it be with the thick rough, the bunkers with fescue growing out the top, or the shaved areas that really punish you if hit the ball too far or in the wrong spot. Combine that with these itty bitty greens, that are severely sloped, and you have a course that if set up correctly makes par a really, really good score.
One thing the USGA has done since February when the Pro Am was played, was grow the rough into these fairways. During the Pro Am, the fairways are fairly easy to hit, but with the rough grown up, particularly on the right side of the fairways, it’s going to take a strong off the tee game to hit them. The length though does benefit some of these longer hitters as they are able to club down with irons and hybrids which are inherently much more accurate.
Another aspect of the short course means that many of the second shots here will be in the 100 yard to 150 yard range, essentially a wedge for these professionals, in fact 13% more strokes will be within 125 yards compared to the average tour event, which is tied for most on tour with the Tournament of Champions.
As with any US Open, the key will be avoiding big numbers. Bogey doesn’t kill you. When Graeme McDowell won here in 2010, he made 15 bogeys on the week, and zero double bogeys. The doubles and triples are what will kill you. Sometimes you need to just take your medicine, accept your bogey and move on, instead of making an absolute mess of things.
It’s important to note that the US Open has different cut rules than a normal tour event. Only the top 60 and ties make the cut and play on the weekend compared to the top 70 and ties at a normal tour event. That means there will be even more of a premium placed on getting 6/6 players through the cut.
Shorter course with itty bitty poa greens that puts a huge emphasis on not only the tee shot, but the approach in as well. Sounds like an incredibly hard test. Combine that with the USGA who tends to always screw these events up and make them incredibly tough and we have the recipe for another major that doesn’t have a winning score under par. Here are my guesses for some of the key numbers this week:
Cut line – +6
Winning Score – -2 (Weather should allow some more birdies)
Hole in Ones – 1
Amateurs to make the cut – 2
Weather:
Another week of DFS Golf and another week where I pretend to be a weatherman. When utilized correctly, taking advantage of a weather draw can give you a huge boost. Though when it doesn’t pan out you end up eliminating half the player pool unnecessarily.
Whoa! A week with nice weather?! That’s what it’s looking like! Barely any chance of rain any day this week, it’ll likely be a bit cold in the AM, but both waves will have to play with that. Let’s check the wind.
Thursday looks gorgeous, just prime golfing weather. Barely any wind and temps in the upper 50’s, lower 60’s. I would expect we see more under par scores on Thursday than any other day this week.
Do I spy a small wave advantage? It looks to be the case. While Friday afternoon won’t be crazy windy, there’s an absolute increase in the winds according to the current forecast. That would give the Thursday PM/Friday AM wave the better conditions. While I don’t know that it’s enough to go all in on, it is something worth trying to exploit especially in a tournament where there aren’t a ton of huge edges. It’s also worth noting that the poa greens typically get much bumpier in the afternoon, especially if there is sun in the morning. That will also likely play a factor in scores on Friday afternoon.
Want to keep an eye on the wind forecast? Here’s the wind tower I’m using on WindFinder –> Pebble Beach Wind Tower
Key Stats this Week:
In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the US Open at Pebble Beach.
Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and former DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?
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Value Tab:
The first thing I look at every week when I open up the RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab is basically a formula that takes our projection for points this week x 1000/their salary. So essentially its points per 1k.
Typical of most majors, we see quite a few guys in that mid 7K range popping as values here due to the soft pricing that DK employs. Webb Simpson leads the way on the back of a strong performance at the RBC Canadian Open and he has a pretty solid US Open history, having won back at the Olympic Club in 2012, his Pebble Beach History isn’t sterling, but he’s an excellent play this week and will likely be on the of the highest owned players on the board.
Hideki Matsuyama and Henrik Stenson both pop and are excellent course fits. Both excellent iron players and poor putters, what Deki has going for him though is that he has an excellent short game and can get it up and down around the green which will be huge here.
Xander Schauffelle is a California kid who just consistently shows up in the majors and is playing some excellent golf. And finally, Justin Thomas is incredibly cheap and in my opinion the best value on the board given his skill set and long term form. He ended up 2nd in SG: Tee to Green last week to Rory McIlroy and just didn’t putt that well.
Projected DK Score:
Projected DK Score (formerly Projected Course Score) is one of our best stats. This takes the current course into account. The FP/H averages by each hole type on the course are added up to create a raw per round FP scoring projection. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success.
JT again, another reason why I think he’s the best value on the board, he just fits really well here. He’s an excellent par 4 scorer, and 2nd best in the field on the short par 5’s, where you will need to make your hay. No surprise that Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka pop as they are the two best golfers on the planet at this point.
Tony Finau is an interesting play this week as I think he comes in extremely underowned as he’s priced right next to guys like Paul Casey, Matt Kuchar, and Adam Scott who will be fairly popular. He’s a nice course fit and typically plays really well at Majors.
Another guy who is going a bit overlooked here is Gary Woodland. His current form leaves something to be desired, but he’s obviously got a ton of skill and can make a run here.
SG: Approach L25
As we’ve talked about, these tiny greens not only require you to hit them but to place the ball in the right spot, putting even more of an emphasis on SG: Approach this week.
A lot of the typical names we see here, guys like Henrik Stenson, Keegan Bradley, Rory McIlroy, but an interesting one I want to point out is Jim Furyk. Old man Furyk has had a bit of a resurgence in his career this year now that he doesn’t have Ryder Cup duties, and has been playing some excellent golf. He’s got some great history at Pebble and typically is an excellent player at the US Open. He won’t make a ton of mistakes and that sort of grind it out style should suit him well here.
Hideki Matsuyama also continues to show up and is slowly finding his way into a lot of my lineups. He hasn’t quite popped off yet this year, but the statistics say that he’s ready to show up, and this could be the perfect venue for him to do it at. That being said, he is always under immense pressure from the Japanese Media and I think that has a bit to do with why he hasn’t quite lived up to the potential. That and he can’t putt…at all.
Double Bogey or Worse %
As we talked about earlier, avoiding the big number is huge here, so let’s take a look at who does that well, and who struggles with making big numbers.
Brian Stuard leads the way here, but not far behind is Dustin Johnson. DJ’s ability to avoid a big number (though not in 2010), is going to be huge this week and is why I keep going back and forth between Tiger and him for the top spot in my core.
Lucas Glover is a sneaky play this week at low ownership who makes a ton of sense. He does a lot of things well, including avoiding those big numbers. Jim Furyk again? Yep, he’s finding his way into my lineups. Erik Van Rooyen was a core play for me last week at the RBC Canadian Open where he had a fantastic week and will be someone I’m heavy on again this week.
So who makes a lot of doubles? Ryan Fox has a small sample but this is not a course that fits him at all. Similar story with Lucas Bjerregaard. I have quite a bit of interest in Jordan Spieth, but this does give me some pause. Long term he’s a bit better at avoiding doubles, so if he continues in this direction it should be ok. It’s also worth noting that many of his doubles are because of his driving woes. That really shouldn’t be an issue here with the ability to club down and avoid some of the trouble. He’s an excellent scrambler as well which should help him here.
Other key stats to consider: Birdies Gained, SG: Par 4 (All lengths), SG: Around the Green, SG: Short Par 5, Driving Accuracy % (take with a grain of salt as players can club down and not have to worry about driver)
–> PGA Research Station <–
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them.
Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?
In this section, each price range’s (Above 9K, 7.5k-9K, and Below 7.5K) Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.
It’s important to remember that just because someone is going to be highly owned, doesn’t mean that they are a bad play, but if we can gain an advantage on the field by fading a player owned by 25% or more, typically that’s the right move. There are typically 156 golfers in an event and only top 60 and ties make the cut. Essentially you have to look at the ownership of a player and decide if the odds of him missing the cut are equal to or greater than the ownership. If that’s the case then a fade is typically the right play.
In a no-cut event, it takes on a little bit of a different spin. A chalky player at the top of the salary scale you have to ask yourself a few questions. Say he’s going to be 25% owned. “Is he going to win?” and “are the odds of him winning better than 1 in 4, equal to, or less?” If it’s less then I think a fade is in order. The same conversation can be had with chalk at the lower salary range. Will he be in the top half of the field? Will he be in the top 20? Etc.
And now, here my friends, are this weeks’ Chalk Donkeys for the US Open:
Above 9K Chalk
Dustin Johnson: DK $11,300/FD $12,200
Projected GPP ownership: 22%-25%
DJ should be the highest owned player this week and for good reason, he crushes Pebble, is playing great golf, is excellent with the approach game. He checks all the boxes. He’s going to be chalky though…so what do you do with him?
Personally, I’m going to be making a stand on DJ, and smashing him at around 50%. What this means is that I’m really pushing the chips in, but because he’s expensive, I have to essentially fade or be underweight on a few other players. Notably, Brooks Koepka, Patrick Cantlay, and Rory McIlroy. Tiger Woods is a guy I want to play regardless and I think Jordan Spieth presents a really interesting pivot at low ownership so I want to keep them in my pool.
Unfortunately this is really what you have to do if you want to make a strong play on a guy. I’m not trying to get a piece of everyone, I want to smash my core and crush GPP’s. If I’m right I win big, if not, then I’m in trouble, but I think making plays like this are the best way to win a GPP.
Above 9K Pivot:
Justin Rose: DK $9,700/FD $11,600
Projected GPP Ownership: 5%-8%
Just below the popular studs in the 10k range, world number 4 Justin Rose sits at just $9700 and is projected at single digit ownership.
Rose is an excellent par 4 scorer (close to the best in the field) and an excellent wedge player, which should come in handy with many of the players second shots coming between 100-150 yards this week. I have some concerns that this is his first tournament without his longtime caddie Fooch, but he has Gareth Lord on the bag who was Henrik Stenson’s long time caddie and was with him earlier this season when Fooch was having heart surgery, and coincidentally Rose won the Farmers during that stretch.
Rose missed the cut and burned everyone at the Masters’ earlier this year, and while he didn’t really pop at the PGA he did play well. I think this course sets up perfect for his game, and he’s a guy who can win you a gpp at this sort of ownership if he wins.
Other highly owned players (over 15%): Brooks Koepka, Patrick Cantly, Tiger Woods, Justin Thomas,
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7.5K – 9K Chalk
Henrik Stenson: DK $7600/FD $9500
Projected GPP Ownership: 17%-20%
I’ve been on Stenson for a long time now because he has just absolutely been striking the ball incredibly. Now that he’s finally getting popular again, I’m not going to get off of him, but I will be more cognizant about how I’m going to play him this week.
Stenson’s a stud and this course is a great set up for him. He’s an excellent links player and someone that benefits from the shorter length here. The irons have been SO good. The concern with him is that he has always been a pretty poor putter, and if he misses the green he’s dead as lately, he has been awful chipping. He also doesn’t always score, even when he’s up on the leaderboard. He’s very good at eliminating mistakes or not compounding them, but he doesn’t always rack up the birdies. So if you want to fade him I think theres a small case to do so, but I’ll still be playing him as I think he’s trending in the right direction and coming to a course that is a perfect fit.
The key though is to play him in the right lineups. Playing chalky players isn’t a bad thing, but it’s important to not play too many together. My assumption is that the highest owned ‘stack’ this week will be DJ and Stenson together. If we wanted to expand that to three players, I would assume it would be DJ, Stenson, and Webb Simpson. Making sure that you don’t play too many of those chalky players together is likely key to success in a large field gpp. Smaller single entry or cash? Go for it. Milly maker or drive the green? I’ll be making sure they aren’t paired up.
7.5K – 9K Pivot:
Tony Finau: DK $8400/FD $10,300
Projected GPP Ownership: 4%-7%
Does someone want to explain to me why a guy that has this sort of projected course score is going to be massively underowned?
He ranks in the top 26 in the field in 11 of the 18 holes and is in the top 55 of the other 7. That’s good for 9th in the entire field. Finau nearly won a few weeks ago at Colonial (another short track that requires you to be in the fairway to attack the pins). Apparently the missed cut at Memorial at high ownership has everyone off him here, which is a mistake because Finau tends to always show up at majors/big events. In fact he has 4 top tens in his last 6 starts at majors. He’s also made the cut in his two trips to the Pro Am at Pebble Beach. I don’t get the hate for him this week and he makes an great contrarian GPP play if he maintains this low ownership.
Other highly owned players (over 12%) Xander Schauffele, Matt Kuchar, Brandt Snedeker, Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama
Below 7.5K
There are two players down here who are garnering quite a bit of ownership, Tyrell Hatton and Jim Furyk, with both projecting to come in around 10% owned. I love both of them this week, and Hatton is actually a core play for me this week. The rest of the field down here will be pretty spread out in ownership, and this is the range where you can really find a diamond in the rough that puts you over the edge in GPP. I wrote up five players in my “Five Finger Discount” article earlier this week!
Check out my Five Finger Discount article here!
–> UpNorth’s Five Finger Discount – US Open Edition<–
GPP Core:
Want to know who is my GPP Core? How bout Taco or Brody’s? Check it out here on our brand new Coaches Notes page! FREE This week for the Public! We will also be updating it with showdown picks for each round the night before!
Final Thoughts:
US Open Week!! I always caution to be smart about your bankroll, but with a Major, let it slide a little bit and let’s have some fun! There are tons of great contests with really solid payout structures. You don’t have to play the Milly Maker! The only lineups I’ll have in there are from contest tickets I won. There are MUCH better contests elsewhere if you want to have a positive ROI.
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Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!