North of the border for Canada’s National Championship this week as player’s prepare for the US Open!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year for DFS golf with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!
Patrick Cantlay finally broke through and got his first ‘real’ win (not during the swing season) on the PGA tour and by doing so jumped up into the top ten of the Official World Golf Rankings for the first time in his career! It was another crazy week at Muirfield with many of the top players missing the cut again. We were able to avoid the carnage and actually got all of our bets through to the weekend with Adam Scott making a run at it but ultimately falling a little short.
I was underweight on Cantlay, thinking that he couldn’t keep this incredible run of golf going (and because he was popular and I wanted all the Rickie) and that at some point he would hit it in the sand trap and make a big number. Perhaps it was poetic then that he hit it in the trap on 18 with Scott close on his heels and hit a fantastic shot to a few feet and was able to knock in his par putt to win. Just a masterful performance by Patrick and I would think he would be moving up peoples boards for the US Open next week at Pebble Beach.
This week the tour heads north of the border to partake in Canada’s national championship, the RBC Canadian Open. While many are familiar with this being a birdie fest on a course that benefits the bombers (Glen Abbey) this year the rotation heads to Hamilton Golf and Country Club for the first time since 2012 when Scott Piercy took down the championship. Hamilton, while still likely a birdie fest will be a completely different test than many are used to for this championship! This is also the first time the Canadian Open will be held prior to the US Open due to the change in the PGA Tour’s schedule this year! This is a great week to build the bankroll for the US Open next week. There are tons of satellites available and with the bottom of this field fairly week, we here at DFS Army have a huge edge with our research station.
Course Breakdown:
Hamilton Golf and Country Club has hosted the RBC Canadian Open 6 times, first in 1919 with J. Douglas Edgar winning and most recently in 2012 with Scott Piercy taking home the trophy.
At 6966 yards, this is one of the shorter courses players will play all year, and almost 300 yards shorter than Glen Abbey which has hosted this tournament every year since 2013. While short, it is a par 70 which gives it some defense to posting a huge winning score as there are two less par 5’s.
Hamilton is a Harry Colt design and that’s a name you’ll likely hear again in a few weeks as he did an extensive redesign of Royal Portrush which hosts the Open Championship later this summer. This course was lengthened and renovated by Tom Clark in 1990 and plays pretty much the same now as it did then.
The Poa Annua greens (mixed with Bent, but mostly Poa) are postage stamp size, meaning they are extremely small. Players who hit them will have a good look at birdie as long as they are on the right side of the hole, as many of the greens are tilted front to back. That big of a tilt means that they aren’t able to get these greens running super fast, and will likely be around 10.5 or 11 on the stimp which is fairly slow.
In 2012, the course played almost a half stroke under par with the front playing much easier than the back and while there wasn’t a ton of eagles made (37) there were 1570 birdies made which puts it a little higher than some other par 70’s we’ve seen recently (Harbor Town, Colonial). The issue with this course though is that it’s very straight forward and when he won here in 2012, Piercy referred to it as boring. Hit the fairway, hit the green, make a birdie if you’re in the right spot. Typically in the past, the rough has been long enough to be penal and despite the superintendent saying it was getting to where they want it, videos from the course today showed it is pretty thin and not very long at all. So despite being short and on paper requiring you to hit the fairway, I think you can get away with being a little wayward here, giving the bombers an edge that maybe they otherwise wouldn’t have. Robert Garrigus finished second here in 2012 hitting way more drivers than his competitors and talked about how there were spots he could be aggressive.
Bombers can also club down and be more accurate than they normally are so we need to be careful when writing off a guy who has poor driving accuracy because he could hit stinger 3 irons here all week and find himself in position A on every fairway. Really what I’m looking for is players who are long off the tee, and great with the approach game. This tends to turn into a bit of a putt putt contest if you look at past results, but it’s not necessarily something I’m going to target.
One thing I really like about this tournament, and it may seem weird, is that it’s a weak field and that benefits those of us who do the research and can find those gems. It’s really uncomfortable to roster ANYONE under $7500 this week, but I have confidence in trusting the research to give us an edge!
Weather:
Another week of DFS Golf and another week where I pretend to be a weatherman. When utilized correctly, taking advantage of a weather draw can give you a huge boost. Though when it doesn’t pan out you end up eliminating half the player pool unnecessarily.
Whoa! A week with nice weather?! That’s what it’s looking like! Outside of some rain on Wednesday that can soften up the course a bit, it looks like a gorgeous week of weather. I’m not expecting any delays and the wind looks like it will be under 10 mph all weekend. A rare week without any weather issues…I’ll take it!
Key Stats this Week:
In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf and Country Club.
Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and former DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?
Value Tab:
The first thing I look at every week when I open up the RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab is basically a formula that takes our projection for points this week x 1000/their salary. So essentially its points per 1k.
No surprise that the top of the field is leading way in the value tab this week. In a field with a strong top 1/4 and a weak bottom 3/4 they have enough win equity that they will likely be the best values on the board.
A couple of surprising names here though are Bubba Watson who is actually a short course specialist despite being considered a bomber. He’s won three times at the Travelers’ Championship at TPC River Highlands which is a par 70 that measures at just over 6800.
Aaron Wise and Peter Malnati are both cheaper value options that make some sense here this week. Wise presents an excellent value based on his great projected course score, meaning he should be a great course fit, the concern though with Wise is that he gains most of his strokes off the tee and that hasn’t been something that has really been a recipe for success here in the past. Malnati though has been playing great golf and has been riding not only a hot putter, but great irons to some solid finishes lately and at $7100 makes a great play.
Projected DK Score:
Projected DK Score (formerly Projected Course Score) is one of our best stats. This takes the current course into account. The FP/H averages by each hole type on the course are added up to create a raw per round FP scoring projection. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success.
JT keeps popping and it’s making me a bit nervous. I really like him this week, but how healthy is he? He looked OK last week but really blew up on Friday to miss the cut. He basically called up to Canada as he was walking off the course to get into the tournament this week. He obviously is looking to build some momentum as he gets ready to head into the US Open. The concern is that he’s already missed one major this year and he likely doesn’t want to miss a second, if he feels a twinge in that wrist he’s like going to pull out and just head out to Pebble Beach to get ready. That’s the risk we take if we roster him this week.
I’m not going to surprise you by saying that Brooks, DJ, and Rory are great plays here. They are the class of the field and would be regardless of the course.
As I said earlier, Bubba Watson makes a ton of sense here and while the current form leaves a bit to be desired, I think he’s an excellent course fit and play this week. Webb Simpson and Matt Kuchar both seem like good course fits as well, though Kuchar will likely be very popular.
Sebastian Munoz is playing some of the best golf of his career right now and looks to be a great course fit. Last time we saw him pop like this was at the Byron Nelson where he finished 10th. He was 7th on the Web last week and is someone I’ll likely have some shares of in GPP.
SG: Approach L25
As we’ve talked about, these tiny greens not only require you to hit them but to place the ball in the right spot, putting even more of an emphasis on SG: Approach this week.
No surprise that Henrik Stenson leads the way here as he has been lighting the world on fire with his iron play lately but has hindered by a poor off the tee game and an awful putter. The positive is that poa is one of his better surfaces and maybe he can hit it close enough that it won’t matter.
Keegan Bradley pops here and while he makes a ton of sense statistically, similar to last week I just don’t think he’s worth the price, particularly with those around him in salary.
Sergio Garcia is one of my favorite plays this week, but more on him later. Rory McIlroy will likely go criminally underowned due to being priced right next to DJ and Brooks, making him an excellent player to start your GPP lineups with.
Corey Conners is looking to be the first Canadian to win this event in about a million years and if he does it it’s going to be with his superb iron play. Long term, that play has been great but recently it’s struggled. I think we see that revert back to the norm this week and he finds himself on the first or second page of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Finally, Sepp Straka keeps showing up and he’s someone I’m definitely interested in, regardless of form current form, he seems to fit here and with not very many ‘solid’ plays below 7K I think he’s interesting based solely on the fact that he’s a great iron player (and a streaky putter).
Strokes Gained: Medium Par 4’s
With 8 par 4’s in the medium range, being able to score on them will be huge this week. Here’s the top ten scoring.
DJ, Brooks, JT, Stenson, Kuchar, Rory, all pretty standard names on this list, but it’s the ones that aren’t ‘normal’ that I’m interested in.
Sebastian Munoz has somewhat of small sample size, but in that sample, he absolutely crushes these holes. Chris Thompson’s sample is 3x as small, but he has done well too, he hasn’t made a cut since back in February though.
A player that I’ll likely be heavily invested in though is Peter Malnati. Malnati is on a string of good form lately and has popped at these shorter courses. His approach game is fantastic and he’s an excellent putter, with poa being his best surface. He’ll likely be underowned and is a great play in all formats.
Other key stats to consider: Birdies Gained, Double Bogey Avoidance, SG: Par 3 long, SG: Around the Green
One thing, that puts us at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. If you aren’t using it to build lineups you’re crazy! Check out how it works here! Domination Station PGA Tutorial
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them.
Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?
In this section, each price range’s (Above 9K, 7.5k-9K, and Below 7.5K) Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.
It’s important to remember that just because someone is going to be highly owned, doesn’t mean that they are a bad play, but if we can gain an advantage on the field by fading a player owned by 25% or more, typically that’s the right move. There are typically 156 golfers in an event (though really only 136 this week with the PGA professionals in the field, making it more important to get 6/6) and only 70 and ties make the cut. Essentially you have to look at the ownership of a player and decide if the odds of him missing the cut are equal to or greater than the ownership. If that’s the case then a fade is typically the right play.
In a no-cut event, it takes on a little bit of a different spin. A chalky player at the top of the salary scale you have to ask yourself a few questions. Say he’s going to be 25% owned. “Is he going to win?” and “are the odds of him winning better than 1 in 4, equal to, or less?” If it’s less then I think a fade is in order. The same conversation can be had with chalk at the lower salary range. Will he be in the top half of the field? Will he be in the top 20? Etc.
And now, here my friends, are this weeks’ Chalk Donkeys:
Above 9K Chalk
Matt Kuchar: DK $10,500/FD $11,300
Projected GPP ownership: 20%-23%
While maybe not the highest owned this week (Hi DJ/Brooks) Kuchar is still going to be fairly high owned, enough where you can consider a fade. Even though he MC’d last week, he still is going to be fairly popular because he pops in everyone’s stat models. And while he’s only $1400 less than DJ, that $1400 can be huge in building lineups this week, which is likely what’s pumping up his ownership projection.
Where Kuchar really struggled last week was with his approach game, and if that is going to be an issue again here, he’ll be in trouble. He did play well at the RBC Heritage which I consider a comp event, and was 34th here in 2012, but I don’t think I can get behind Kuchar when I really can only play one guy above 10k this week and I have Rory, DJ, and Brooks all sitting right there.
Above 9K Pivot:
Sergio Garcia: DK $9,500/FD $10,700
Projected GPP Ownership: 9%-11%
Sergio apparently just doesn’t want to play well in Majors anymore, having missed the cut in 7 straight, but outside of the majors, he’s been playing some really solid golf, including a 4th place finish sandwiched between his missed cuts at the Masters and PGA. Despite some poor performances at those big events, Sergio has gained an average of 4.1 strokes approach per tournament in the events he’s played on tour this year, some pretty incredible iron play.
He makes an interesting place to start your lineups this week at this price and with his pedigree. He can absolutely contend with the big dogs here as he has all the skills, it’s just putting it together. He ranks out really well in every type of hole we have this course and is able to pile up the birdies, which he will likely need if he makes a few bogeys which he tends to do. Any sort of balanced build I make this week will likely start with Sergio, and maybe even some super stars and scrub lineups as well.
Other highly owned players (over 15%): Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Henrik Stenson
7.5K – 9K Chalk
Bud Cauley: DK $8400/FD $9800
Projected GPP Ownership: 13%-16%
Bud Cauley had an excellent showing at the Memorial to finish T9 despite shooting an even-par 72 on Sunday which was his worst round of the week. He’s got the green dot next to his name meaning his current form is great and he had a top ten finish here in 2012, which has been baked into his odds which at 40-1 currently, make him an excellent value at this Draftkings price.
I love Bud and am excited to see him back to playing great golf after his car accident just over a year ago, but I do want to caution those looking to play him. Last week he gained 3.2 strokes putting, which is just over 3.5 strokes higher than his career average. Prior to last week, he had lost strokes putting in 7 straight events dating back to the API. It’s worth noting that SG: Putting is the fourth highest trending topic on the current event dashboard. This tournament has turned into a bit of a putting contest the two times it was held here recently which doesn’t bode well for Cauley.
The other big concern I have with Cauley is that he’s a really poor long par 4 and medium par 4 player. I just can’t get behind a guy that had a one week of excellent putting, especially when he just doesn’t seem like a great course fit, despite a solid week 7 years ago.
7.5K – 9K Pivot:
Graeme McDowell: DK $7600/FD $9100
Projected GPP Ownership: 3%-5%
Maybe a little bit of a reach here on a narrative I want to see happen, but Graeme McDowell makes a ton of sense this week at low ownership.
With the Open Championship being played at Royal Portrush next month, Gmac is still not in the field and Portrush is his home course. He finishes top 3 of those who aren’t already qualified this week and he will book his ticket. That sort of thing is going to be extremely motivating for him this week. He’s also a great course fit.
A short course, with lots of medium length par 4’s that he can hit his long irons tight into and make a bunch of birdies? Right up GMac’s alley. His recent form leaves a bit to be desired but even if he doesn’t contend this week he’s making the cut 90% of the time, making him a pretty safe play regardless. I love Gmac this week and while good for my pocketbook, I’d also love to see him punch his ticket to Royal Portrush regardless.
Other highly owned players (over 12%) Erik Van Rooyen, Jim Fuyrk, Bubba Watson, Corey Conners, Joaquin Niemann
Check out my Course Preview Article for my full betting card!
–> UpNorth’s PGA Preview – RBC Canadian Open<–
Below 7.5K
Not suprisingly given the lack of pedigree below 7.5K this week there is no player who is looking like massive chalk. The ownership appears to be pretty spread out with most players around 3%-4% owned. Here are a few lower owned players I’m interested in this week.
Peter Malnati: DK $7100/FD $8200
As I mentioned above, I really like Malnati this week. He checks al of the boxes for me in terms of par 4 scoring, SG: Approach, putting, and he makes a ton of birdies when he’s on. Finished Memorial strong and hopefully can carry that over here.
Colin Morikawa: DK $6400/FD $7000
This is Morikawa’s first tournament as a professional and gets in as a sponsor’s exemption. He qualified for the US Open on Monday at the most difficult qualifying site in Columbus, Ohio. The former world number one amateur has only played in one professional event in the last two years, last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitation where he made the cut. He’s got a ton of game and should be able to make the cut and be in the mix for a top 40 finish. At this price that’ll smash value. Good upside, but very low floor with him.
Luke Donald: DK $7100/FD $8100
This one doesn’t feel great, but Luke Donald actually makes a ton of sense this week. He’s played well on these shorter courses and while he struggled on Sunday at the Memorial, he smashed on Saturday going super low. He then went out and qualified for the US Open on Monday. He’s a guy you can only play on certain courses that fit his game, and this is one of them.
GPP Core:
Want to know who is my GPP Core? How bout Taco or Brody’s? Check it out here on our brand new Coaches Notes page!
Final Thoughts:
This is a fun week with Canada’s national championship and I always like seeing these birdie fests. It’s a great week to play satellites as well, especially considering that the Milly Maker for the US Open is $100 an entry!
We will have content for you all through the week at DFS Army. Our research station and domination station optimizer will be updated on Tuesday and I will have my full Chalk Donkey article breaking down all the ownership and GPP strategy for our VIP’s on Wednesday afternoon! If you aren’t a VIP yet, use code UPNORTH for 20% off EVERY MONTH FOREVER!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!