After an exciting US Open, we get right back at it with a stacked field as the tour ventures back east to TPC River Highlands and the Travelers’ Championship!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year for DFS golf with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!
Gary freaking Woodland! What a win. I was almost sure that he wouldn’t be able to continue making 40 footers and chipping in for birdie, and he came out on Sunday and just crushed it in every aspect of his game. He was incredibly solid and I couldn’t be happier for the guy. We were pretty heavy on a low owned Justin Rose last week so it was disappointing from a DFS perspective to not see him take home the win, but if it couldn’t be Rosey, I can’t think of a guy who I would have wanted to win more.
Last week I posted a video breakdown of how I build GPP lineups here DFS Golf GPP Lineup Building Strategies, Check it out for some great insight into how I go about building lineups for MME! These next two weeks are great weeks to practice this strategy prior to the PGA Championship!
This week the tour heads back east for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands and the field is stacked! I’m actually kind of blown away with how good the field is this week. Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, and 3x winner here, Bubba Watson. The course is short, but a variety of players have had success here, bombers and short hitters alike. It should be fun, profitable week and one I’m looking forward to.
Course Breakdown:
The Travelers Championship takes place at TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, CT. TPC River Highlands is a Pete Dye design (he overhauled it in 1982) and then underwent further redesign by Roger Maltbie in 1989. It’s hosted this event since 1984 and was formerly known as the Greater Hartford Open (hosted by Sammie Davis Jr.!) and the Buick Championship.
This par 70 is only 6841 yards and is one of the shortest tracks the tour plays all year, yet we have seen a variety of players have success here. The course is a Pete Dye design, and as such we know that distance won’t be required, but it does allow players to take driver if they are feeling frisky, they just bring trouble into play, whether it be with the tree-lined fairways or the water hazards that are in play on five the holes. Dye always try to trick players with uncomfortable sight lines and that comes into play here, but its a position course at its heart. Being so short, the only defense the course has is difficult pin positions, so putting yourself in the right position off the tee and then striking great irons into the difficult pins is huge. Strokes gained Tee to Green will be a big stat this week.
The length of the course means that almost everyone, from the short hitters to the long hitters will be hitting wedges into the green. Players have 4% more shots from 125 yards – 175 yards than the tour average and 9% fewer shots from 175 yards-200 yards. Essentially if you are in the fairway you are hitting some sort of wedge into the green. Speaking of the greens, these are poa greens with a bit of bentgrass mixed in. They aren’t necessarily going to get bumpy in the afternoon like we saw last week at the US Open, but they do get a little harder to roll it on. Mornings will have pristine conditions and you can go super low. Jim Furyk shot 58 here in 2016, which is the lowest score in PGA Tour history. The previous record at the course was 60, shot by a young Patrick Cantlay in 2011 when he was an amateur.
The winning scores here over the last few years have been:
2018 – Bubba Watson: -17
2017 – Jordan Spieth: -12 (This one cost me a ton of money. Chipped in to beat Daniel Berger who I had a big outright on)
2016 – Russell Knox: -14
2015 – Bubba Watson: -16
2014 – Kevin Streelman: -15
So it’s a bit of a birdie fest, but not a 20 under one considering that its a par 70 and we only have two par 5’s on the course, in fact, the average score here is only -.18 which is 34th easiest in our database of courses (out of 65) so right in the middle of the pack. One thing to notice here is that there aren’t a lot of bogeys, but there are LOTS of pars. It’s also one of the more difficult to putt on courses on tour, with players averaging 28.3 putts per round.
One other key thing to note is that there are EIGHT par 4’s between 400-450 yards. Where can you find stats about who is good on those? Oh yeah in our research station!
Overall, it’s a really fair test of golf, and while there are low scores out there, players who can grind it out and avoid bogeys will be in good shape. Targetting good ballstrikers will be the key to success (check out the previous winners!). With a stacked field this week there are going to be some underowned ballstrikers in position for success that we can take advantage of.
Weather:
Another week of DFS Golf and another week where I pretend to be a weatherman. When utilized correctly, taking advantage of a weather draw can give you a huge boost. Though when it doesn’t pan out you end up eliminating half the player pool unnecessarily.
If they can get through Thursday and Friday AM they should be fine for the weekend where I expect guys to go really low in pristine conditions. The issue with the course coming into Thursday though is the amount of rain they have received in the last week, over an inch and a quarter. This course is going to be wet. At 6800 yards, it’s not going to get crazy long, but it’s going to play much longer than players are used to, at least for the first two rounds. While it’ll play a bit longer, the players should be able to fire directly at these pins, which makes me a little higher on guys with good SG: Approach numbers.
Key Stats this Week:
In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands.
Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and former DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?
Value Tab:
The first thing I look at every week when I open up the RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab is basically a formula that takes our projection for points this week x 1000/their salary. So essentially its points per 1k.
Mostly cheap options here! I love seeing that, that also makes me think that we will see quite a few balanced builds this week in tournaments, with this range getting hammered with ownership. That creates some interesting leverage plays elsewhere, but more on that later
Emiliano Grillo leads the way here as one of the biggest odds values on the board given his price. He’s played well here in the past and has some decent form coming in. My issue with Grillo is that he’s not a great scorer, at least in terms of DK Points. You can get guys priced around him who are 3x the DK scorers as him (cough cough Sungjae Im). Russell Knox has a great history here, including a win and is playing well right now as well.
What you’ll notice if you dig deeper into this group is that all of these guys are excellent par 4 scorers, particularly medium length par 4’s, of which there are 8.
Charley Hoffman crushes here every year, and it’s not surprising given his aptitude for these shorter, ball striker courses, but the two guys I’m really interested are Sebastian Munoz and Peter Malnati. Both of these guys were players we were on two weeks at Hamilton Golf and Country Club for the RBC Canadian Open and both performed well, with finishes of 11th and 31st respectively. They thrive on these par 4’s and both can go super low.
Projected DK Score:
Projected DK Score (formerly Projected Course Score) is one of our best stats. This takes the current course into account. The FP/H averages by each hole type on the course are added up to create a raw per round FP scoring projection. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success.
JT is a stat darling as usual and rates out extremely well here, even better than Superman Brooks Koepka. I have some concerns about him, but at the price and in this field I think he’s worth a look on this alone.
Will you look who pops there as third best-projected DK score? Our boy Sebastian Munoz. He just fits these courses well. The sample size is somewhat small, about half of the rest of the field in terms of hole data, but last time he popped was two weeks ago when he finished 11th. He just loves these shorter courses where you need to score on par 4’s. He brings some variance with him as sort of an unproven commodity, but I love his upside and ownership projections.
Bryson DeChambeau is an intriguing play as a guy whose form is starting to round back into shape. He had a tough stretch where he missed three cuts in a row but has back to back decent finishes and had a top ten finish here last year.
Patrick Cantlay has crushed this course over the years and Tony Finau is a guy I’m getting right back on the horse with as well.
SG: Approach L25
As we’ve talked about, these tiny greens not only require you to hit them but to place the ball in the right spot, putting even more of an emphasis on SG: Approach this week.
Everyone’s favorite awful putter Keegan Bradley tops the list here and as a native Northeasterner (and good course fit) you’d think he’d have a bit more success here than he has, but he does have a top ten finish two years ago. He has never missed the cut here though, making him an interesting cash play.
There’s the narrative that Brooks Koepka only cares about majors, and I hope that people take that to heart this week because I think he’s a solid play even coming off a solid, yet draining US Open. Typically, those coming off a US Open win struggle at this event, but even last year he finished T19 off his win the previous week at Shinnecock. He’s played well here and this course is clearly a great fit for him, I think you can absolutely play Brooks and might consider doubling his ownership this week.
Boo Weekley hasn’t played much this year coming off an injury but for $6200 you can do a lot worse. I’m not sure he’s going to make my player pool but he’s an interesting mega cheap option.
And finally, one of my favorite plays of the week, Sepp Straka. The Austrian has been on a string of great play lately and he fills up the cup when he’s rolling. The putter is always an issue, but I doubt we see this turn into a putting contest. When it comes to SG: Tee to Green he’s one of the best in the field and you get him at a huge discount. Love him in GPP.
Strokes Gained: Medium Par 4’s
With 8 par 4’s in the medium range, being able to score on them will be huge this week. Here’s the top ten scoring:
This list looks eerily similar to the one from a few weeks ago at the RBC Canadian Open. On that list, pretty much everyone made the cut and played well, including guys like Chris Thompson who made his first cut on tour in a full field event since February.
No surprise we see Brooks, JT, and Cantlay here, but we get some interesting value plays in guys like Munoz, Abraham Ancer, and Denny McCarthy but my favorite play this week is Peter Malnati. He’s so good with his irons and these shorter tracks allow him to compete since he is incredibly short off the tee. He heats up with the putter and he can easily shoot low 60s at a course like this, which he did last year with an opening 64.
Other key stats to consider: Birdies Gained, Double Bogey Avoidance, SG: short Par 5, Greens in Regulation %
One thing, that puts us at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. If you aren’t using it to build lineups you’re crazy! Check out how it works here! Domination Station PGA Tutorial
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them.
Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?
In this section, each price range’s (Above 9K, 7.5k-9K, and Below 7.5K) Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.
It’s important to remember that just because someone is going to be highly owned, doesn’t mean that they are a bad play, but if we can gain an advantage on the field by fading a player owned by 25% or more, typically that’s the right move. There are typically 156 golfers in an event and only 70 and ties make the cut. Essentially you have to look at the ownership of a player and decide if the odds of him missing the cut are equal to or greater than the ownership. If that’s the case then a fade is typically the right play.
In a no-cut event, it takes on a little bit of a different spin. A chalky player at the top of the salary scale you have to ask yourself a few questions. Say he’s going to be 25% owned. “Is he going to win?” and “are the odds of him winning better than 1 in 4, equal to, or less?” If it’s less then I think a fade is in order. The same conversation can be had with chalk at the lower salary range. Will he be in the top half of the field? Will he be in the top 20? Etc.
And now, here my friends, are this weeks’ Chalk Donkeys:
Above 9K Chalk
Paul Casey: DK $9500/FD $11,300
Projected GPP ownership: 23%-26%
2nd, 5th, 17th, 2nd. That’s Casey’s last four trips here. You’re going to get exposure to him. You have to with a record like that. He’s also been playing pretty well with two top 30 finishes at courses that aren’t great fits for him, and 4th at Wells Fargo. Don’t overthink this. Casey isn’t someone we can fade this week. The question is how much do you play him? Playing the field average really doesn’t get you leverage, but it doesn’t hurt you if he blows up. If you feel strongly that he’s going to contend this week it’s pretty easy to double the field, or 1.5x the field if you are MME’n.
Above 9K Pivot:
Tony Finau: DK $9,000/FD $10,000
Projected GPP Ownership: 9%-11%
With lots of chalk up here (Casey, JT, Brooks) we get some players who are going to go underowned and right now Finau is projected around 10% ownership, but I think he could come in even lower after missing the cut last week at the US Open. Finau has great course history here with three straight top 25’s, and while he has missed the cut in his last two events he’s only a month removed from a second place finish at Colonial, another shorter par 70.
While that driving accuracy is a bit concerning, he won’t have to pull the driver that often here and can club down and be a bit more accurate. What I do like is if you look at the recent form and the long term form, his recent form numbers are all quite a bit worse. What that says to me is that he is likely to revert back to that norm at some point, and why not this week at a course he’s had success at.
If Tony was playing at his best, he’d be over 10K in this field. This whole situation screams value and positive regression to me. He’s an excellent GPP play and someone I’ll be at minimum 3x the field on.
Other highly owned players (over 15%): Brooks Koepka, Paul Casey, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas
7.5K – 9K Chalk
Emiliano Grillo: DK $7900/FD $9900
Projected GPP Ownership: 20%-23%
Anyone priced in this range I typically just fade in GPP on principle unless it’s a major, but let me make my case.
Grillo has been playing some great golf lately with three straight top 25 finishes before a 58th at the US Open. He was 19th here last year and 43rd the year before. Grillo is a steady Eddie. He makes cuts, but never really pops or contends unless he runs into a hot putter, which he hasn’t in months. He typically finishes pretty well, but as you can see with his Birdies or better gained, he doesn’t really score that well at least in terms of DK Points, which is what we’re looking for.
Really though, all that aside, the ownership is the main factor here. I can’t in my right mind play a guy at this sort of ownership at this price. He could even run higher than this in some single entry and 3 max contests. GPP’s are all about ownership and creating leverage, and you can do that by fading him and hoping that the putter continues to run cold while the irons fall apart too. He’s not afraid to make a big number and with water, in play on a few holes here he could end his tournament early.
7.5K – 9K Pivot:
Sungjae Im: DK $7800/FD $9100
Projected GPP Ownership: 5%-8%
All Sungjae does is score. He’s 6th on tour this year in Eagles made and is 28th on tour in Birdie or Better %. He’s 11th in projected fantasy points/round here this week while being priced as the 25th highest.
The concern I have with him is that on medium par 4’s he’s just OK, but he smashes the longer par 4’s and short par 5’s where you can really score on this course. Even if he just birdies the par 5’s this week he should be in good shape.
Sungjae has tons of talent, he won the money title on the Web.com (or Korn Ferry Tour I guess now…lol) last year, and while he crushed early in the year, he went through a string of events where he struggled, likely due to some combination of stress and fatigue because he plays almost every week. With him having last week off for the US Open (he just missed qualifying by being in the top 60 of the OWGR) he should come in ready to roll.
All that aside, I think that he’s just an excellent play at low ownership this week. With everyone in this range taking on most of the ownership here, I’ll play Sungjae who has as much if not more upside than all of them.
Other highly owned players (over 12%) Bubba Watson, Charley Hoffman, Jason Kokrak, Emiliano Grillo, Kevin Streelman, Ryan Moore,
Check out my Course Preview Article for my full betting card!
–> UpNorth’s PGA Preview – Travelers Championship <–
Below 7.5K
Not surprisingly given the lack of pedigree below 7.5K this week there is no player who is looking like massive chalk. The ownership appears to be pretty spread out with most players around 3%-4% owned. Si Woo Kim and Matthew Wolff should both garner some ownership, but not enough to go over 10%. Here are a few lower owned players I’m interested in this week.
Peter Malnati: DK $6900/FD $7900
As I mentioned above, I really like Malnati this week. He checks all of the boxes for me in terms of par 4 scoring, SG: Approach, putting, and he makes a ton of birdies when he’s on. Played great up in Canada at a similar course and I think he’s going to be in good shape again this week. Was 29th here last year.
Colin Morikawa: DK $6900/FD $8700
The third straight week on Morikawa for me and I have no regrets playing him yet. He’s been excellent with his approach shots and the putter has been solid. A much better DK play than FD due to price. When we get to a bombers course I’ll get off him, but until then I’m going to keep playing Morikawa till he burns me.
Sebastian Munoz: DK $7200/FD $8200
Made a pretty good case for Munoz above. He crushes medium par 4’s, and this is a perfect course fit for him.
Sepp Straka: DK $7200/FD $8100
Love me some Sepp Straka this week. He smashes approach, and if his putter gets hot he can absolutely contend this week. He won’t be very popular despite having a great US Open.
GPP Core:
Want to know who is my GPP Core? How bout Taco or Brody’s? Check it out here on our brand new Coaches Notes page!
Final Thoughts:
This is a fun week, at a unique track with a great field. Be smart with your bankroll, the British Open will be here before you know it!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!