Hello again everyone! nillyJay here – some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB. If you’re not already, you can find and follow me on Twitter, or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
As always, if you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.
Puggle strikes again. Congrats!!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate. Let’s do just that:
We have some good options here, and for cash games we see that Buehler is probably the safest option for the higher end. Snell and Bieber both have really good ratings, though they aren’t getting easy matchups by any means, so I’d probably lean GPP there. Our mystery man tops them all, but who is he?!
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the day:
If you stacked Oakland last night and weren’t too happy about the dud they put up, I’d suggest going right back to them today. They have both the highest implied total and carnage rating on the board, and baseball has a funny way of rewarding people who go back to the well with teams in good spots. The Brewers are in a smash spot as well, and so are the Mets, so there’s a freebie for you guys today. There are two other mystery teams here that I will keep for DFS Army members, though.
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
We’ll kick things off with one of our aces on the slate, as well as the dangerous team he’ll have to go up against. The Red Sox have seen Snell before, though they haven’t seen the 2019 version of him yet, so it’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. With so many games today, I’d lean GPP here and look elsewhere for your cash games.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Meadows, Adames
GPP note – Rodriguez has been a tough target this year, so I’d lean more towards one-offs or mini-stacks
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Betts, Martinez, Bogaerts
GPP note -Difficult matchup against an ace they haven’t seen yet this year. You can go against the grain and stack here, but I would be sure to hedge those lineups with some Snell ones
Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies
Our next game features two capable pitchers going up against two capable offenses, though this one does lean towards the Phillies. Gray hasn’t been a pushover, though, so I could see this one playing to the under.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Senzel, Votto, Dietrich
GPP note – The Reds like to randomly go off, so if you want a contrarian stack with high upside, here you go
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Hoskins, Segura, Bruce
GPP note – The Phillies are always worth a look, but Gray has been pretty good at mitigating damage this year. Their ceiling may be limited here
Arizona Diamondbacks at Toronto Blue Jays
Next up we have the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays, and two pitchers that are on two different levels right now. Ray, who isn’t the mystery man today, has looked sharp most of the year and I think he makes a solid GPP play today. Richard hasn’t been off to the best start, so this could be a place where the Diamondbacks have one of those random big games.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Peralta, Marte, Escobar
GPP note – Richard is off to a slow start, so this could be a good place to attack him
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero, Smoak
GPP note – Tough matchup against a quality pitcher, so I don’t really like full stacks here
Colorado Rockies at New York Mets
The Rockies will face Syndergaard and the Mets today, and well, I can’t say that I love the Rockies chances of doing a ton here. On the other hand, Syndergaard’s strikeout rate hasn’t really been there like we’ve come to expect, so I can’t help but feel like this one might be a bit underwhelming for fantasy purposes. Maybe the Mets can get to Hoffman?
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Arenado, Blackmon, Story
GPP note – Tough matchup for the Rockies today. Vegas doesn’t have much love for them and neither do I. One-offs or mini-stacks might be best
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – McNeil, Alonso, Conforto
GPP note – Hoffman isn’t quite there yet, so perhaps the Mets can have a big game here. Favor the lefties and Alonso
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
After having a mostly solid start to the season, Fried has had a few setbacks, so he’ll look to get things back on track against the Marlins. Lopez has been solid, especially at home, so I can see this one being a pitcher’s duel for a while if Fried can get back on track. Both pitchers make interesting GPP/SP2 options.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman, Acuna
GPP note – Lopez has been a tough target, so I think I’d rather grab a few small pieces here rather than big stacks
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Anderson, Castro
GPP note – If the solid Fried shows up, the Marlins may be very limited. If the bad one shows up, the Marlins will be an underowned stack with a high ceiling
Even with two (three?) duds, CeeGee scored himself a big win last night. Congrats!!
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
The Twins and Tigers are up next, and this one has Minnesota written all over it. Odorizzi will be on the mound, who has looked very good, and I think he’ll have a pretty good chance of shutting the Tigers down. Carpenter will face the Twins, and while he has made some improvements, he still has a difficult task ahead of him. I would grab some pieces of the Twins here and move on to other targets.
Twins 5 star plays – Polanco
Twins 4 star plays – Cruz, Garver, Cron, Rosario, Gonzalez
GPP note – Stack away to your heart’s content
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Goodrum
GPP note – Not much to love here. I think we can pass and focus on better targets
New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
Chad Green and the Yankees bullpen will face off against Bieber and the Indians here, and to be honest, I could see this one being a bit of a low-scoring game too. Bieber has been solid, and I think he can find a way to limit the dangerous Yankees bats. The Yankees bullpen has been excellent, and I think they can do the same to the Indians
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Sanchez, Voit, Gregorius
GPP note – Tough matchup, but this is still a dangerous team, so some contrarian stacks are still in play
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Lindor, Santana, Ramirez
GPP note -Tough matchup against the Yankees bullpen, so if I wanted to stack a team here, I’d probably lean towards the Yankees offense
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Brault and Anderson will face off in our next game, and even though both of them are capable of a quality game, neither one of them have had much success here lately. I think there’s a good chance that at least one of the teams go off – perhaps both – but we know the Brewers will be the more popular choice. That puts the Pirates in play as a good contrarian stack, or you can even game stack it!
Pirates 5 star plays – Bell
Pirates 4 star plays – Moran, Polanco, Reynolds
GPP note – The Pirates are no stranger to big scores, so don’t overlook them today. All sorts of stacks, big and small, are in play here
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Cain, Braun, Arcia
GPP note -It’s more fun to attack righties with the Brewers, but they can beat up on lefties too. Like above, all types of stacks are in play here, even full game stacks
Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros
The Orioles and Astros are next, and this one features all sorts of different GPP options. First, the pitchers: Miley has looked great in 2019, and Bundy has quietly improved all season. With how hit-or-miss both of these offenses have been lately, I could see them having better-than-expected performances here, putting both of them at play for GPP. Both offenses do have a lot of potential though, so I could see them putting up some good scores. The conclusion? Feel free to grab pieces from this game from all sides in GPP.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mancini, Nunez
GPP note – Miley has been a tough target in 2019, but this team has been good at randomly going off, and they probably won’t see much ownership today. If you stack here, I’d go all out and hope for the best
Astros 5 star plays – Bregman, Brantley
Astros 4 star plays – Gurriel, Reddick, Fisher
GPP note – Bundy had been a favorite target but he’s starting to improve, and this team has struggled a bit against righties. You could either stack them and hope they have a big game again, or fade them in hopes of a dud (and that a lot of people stacked them hoping Bundy implodes again)
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
The White Sox take on my Royals again here today, and to be honest, I was really expecting the White Sox to come out with all guns blazing (they really don’t like us). That hasn’t been the case, though they’ll have a better chance at it today, as Sparkman isn’t exactly a dominant pitcher. Lopez isn’t either, and my guys love their day games, so I could see this one turning into a bit of a shootout.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Moncada, Abreu, Anderson
GPP note – Decent spot to do some damage to a divisonal rival, so don’t overlook them
Royals 5 star plays – Mondesi
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Gordon, Soler
GPP note – Everything from one-offs to full game stacks are in play here, so don’t be shy!
kb4444 had himself a nice win the other night. Congrats!!
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
Oakland was in a good spot yesterday and totally busted. They’re in another good spot today, so try not to let recency-bias get in the way of your decision making. As for the Rangers, I’m surprised that their implied total is as high as it is, considering how good Montas has been. I think he makes a pretty good GPP pivot to the other expensive arms.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Davis, Chapman, Semien
GPP note – Don’t be afraid to go right back to them today, after that dud yesterday
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Choo, Mazara, Andrus
GPP note -Tough matchup against Montas, but they still have a decently high implied total. If you stack here, you may consider hedging those lineups with some others with Montas in them
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
It’s taken us a while, but we finally got to one of our good cash game pitching options. Unfortunately, this game isn’t on the main slates, so if you want to play Buehler, you’ll have to play an all-day or afternoon slate. Anyway, he’ll face Bumgarner, who seems to keep making some improvements, so this could play to the under if he’s able to navigate the Dodgers’ righties.
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Bellinger, Hernandez, Turner, Taylor
GPP note – Righties are the way to go here if you’re stacking, but paying up for Bellinger is in play in GPP as well
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Panik, Yastrzemski
GPP note -Tough matchup against Buehler, and the Giants tend to spread out fantasy production as it is. There’s not a whole lot to love here
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
The Mariners and Angels will have another rematch here today, especially the Mariners, as they just saw Suarez last week. He had a decent outing, but I always worry about teams facing the same pitcher in back-to-back starts, as it’s a bit more likely that they’ll be able to get to them. As for the Angels, they get a good matchup against LeBlanc here, so I could see this game producing plenty of runs and fantasy goodness.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Encarnacion, Santana, Smith
GPP note – They just saw Suarez, so they may have learned a thing or two about him. Good place to grab some full stacks
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Fletcher, Pujols
GPP note – Good spot for the Angels to do some damage again, so don’t be afraid to go back to them
Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres
And finally, our afternoon hammer game will feature another ace in Stephen Strasburg, and another bullpen game with Erlin and the Padres. Both teams have fairly low implied totals here, so it may be best to grab smaller pieces of this one instead of trying to load up on these teams.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Turner, Soto
GPP note – Low implied total and a bullpen game, both of which point towards a bit of a limited ceiling here. You can go contrarian and stack them anyway, or grab smaller pieces and look elsewhere
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Hosmer, Machado
GPP note – Difficult matchup against Strasburg, so like the Nationals, I’d prefer to grab small pieces and look elsewhere for the rest
Classic batters list
Instead of the usual Tiers freebie, I wanted to change things up a little bit today. Here’s a sample of my classic batters sheet for today’s games. There are 37 batters in great spots on the full sheet, but it’s only available for DFS Army members!
Closing thoughts
Thank you for joining me here today! I hope you found this article helpful with your research for today’s slate. I have some more GPP thoughts for you guys in the DFS Army, so be sure to check my channel and #mlb-news-and-notes this afternoon for those.
If you like what you see here and want to experience everything we have to offer, I’d encourage you to consider joining up with us. As you saw, we cover (and win!) all sports, not just the common ones. Just remember to use promo code NILLY to save 20% off for the lifetime of your active membership, for the best deal in daily fantasy sports. Until then, I hope you all have a great day!