Hello again everyone! nillyJay here – some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB. If you’re not already, you can find and follow me on Twitter, or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
As always, if you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate. Let’s do just that:
No surprise here, Sale and Morton lead the way today and will be two popular targets. For cash games, it’s easy enough to just plug in Sale and move on, and we know the kind of ceiling he has for GPP. Our mystery man makes an interesting GPP option as well.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the day:
The Marlins and Braves get two of the best ratings on the board today, and only our mystery team tops them. All three are good options for cash games and tournaments alike.
New York Mets at New York Yankees
We’ll kick things off with our two New York teams, though as of right now, the weather doesn’t look very promising at all. We’ll need to stay tuned to #dfs-weather to see if this one is safe or not. Otherwise, it’s a pretty standard game with one solid pitcher and one pitcher who has had some very low lows and very high highs this season. He’ll have a tough matchup against the Yankee power righties and their high implied run total, so you may see him doing a rain dance throughout the day.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – McNeil, Conforto
GPP note – Tough matchup against Tanaka and some weather concerns. Be careful here
Yankees 5 star plays – Sanchez
Yankees 4 star plays – Voit, Torres, Hicks
GPP note – Good place to grab some stacks, especially the big righties…if they play
Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies
Our next game doesn’t look too promising either, so keep an eye on the skies for this one too. If they do play, we get a couple of struggling pitchers here, as well as two teams that are always eager to jump on soft pitching and put up some runs. This game looks like it could be a good source of offensive production, so cross your fingers and hope it stays dry.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Marte, Peralta
GPP note – Eickhoff seems to be trending downwards, so this could be a great time to attack him with some big stacks
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Hoskins, Segura, Bruce
GPP note – Clarke hasn’t really been overpowering or anything, making him a good target to stack against. Game stack??
St Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins
This next game resembles the previous one, as we’ll see two pitchers who have been a bit up and down all season, as well as two offenses that are good at taking advantage of not-so-great pitching. They won’t have any weather issues here though, and I could certainly see this one playing to the over, so don’t be afraid to grab some bats and stacks from either side of this one.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Carpenter, Goldschmidt, Ozuna
GPP note – Alcantara has been pretty hit or miss, so if you go here, I’d go with big stacks and hope he has another off day
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Castro, Anderson
GPP note – They have a nice carnage rating against Wacha, though they’re full of right-handed batters. Reverse splits batters are the targets here
Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
Next up we have the ace of the day, as well as an ace-in-training, going head-to-head at Fenway Park. I have to say, I’m a little surprised that the game total is as high as it is because both of these pitchers are capable of keeping their opponent down for most of the game. Boston hasn’t faced the 2019 version of Mike Minor yet, so don’t be afraid to take some shares of him in GPP. For cash games, it’s Chris Sale day.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Cabrera, Pence
GPP note – Only stack here if you think they can get to Sale instead of getting destroyed by him. Otherwise, look elsewhere
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Betts, Bogaerts
GPP note – Not exactly an easy matchup against Minor here, but Vegas seems to like them, so you could grab a few stacks and hope they can figure out the new Mike Minor
Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays
We get another high-end pitching option here, as Charlie Morton will host Tanner Anderson and the Athletics. We know what Morton is capable of, and he makes a solid option in all formats, but the more interesting thing here is Anderson and his 2019 debut. We’ve seen that debuts this season tend to go to one extreme or the other (some look like Chris Sale while others look like they’re tossing softballs underhand), so it might not be a bad idea to grab some pieces of both sides of that one in case one side goes off.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Davis, Olson, Semien
GPP note – Tough matchup against Morton and when they dud, they dud hard
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Meadows, Pham, Lowe
GPP note – They get a fresh pitcher here, so you can stack and hope he is a little nervous and makes one too many mistakes
Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves
Yet another game with struggling pitchers, the Pirates and Braves will face off here with a 10 implied total (I would not be surprised to see this increase). This one has fireworks written all over it, so feel free to grab shares of both of these offenses. Or, if you’re feeling bold, take a pitcher and hope they’re able to spoil some of the fun.
Pirates 5 star plays – Bell
Pirates 4 star plays – Moran, Marte
GPP note – Gausman started the season off well but he’s started to slip. Could be a good time to attack him
Braves 5 star plays – Freeman
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna, Swanson, Riley
GPP note – Musgrove has been slipping a bit as well. Would be a good time to attack him, too
Washington Nationals at Chicago White Sox
We have another 2019 pitching debut here today (what is with all of these games mimicking one another?), as Odrisamer Despaigne will take the mound against Sanchez and the Nationals. Interestingly, aside from Abreu and Anderson, there’s hardly any BvP at all here, as the Nationals have never faced Despaigne and most of the White Sox have not seen Sanchez (or have seen him very little). It’s hard telling how that plays out, so if this intrigues you, you may consider grabbing different pieces of this game to go with your chalkier players.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Soto, Eaton, Turner
GPP note – They’ll get Despaigne in his 2019 debut, so it’s hard to know how things will turn out. Feel free to stack here for GPP though
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Moncada, Abreu, Garcia
GPP note – Sanchez has made some improvements which could limit their ceiling, though they did just see him a week ago and may look to even the score. I’m leaning towards the former, but wouldn’t argue against the latter
Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies
Ah, Coors. Always chalky, no matter who is pitching. These teams faced off not too long ago, but now the series will head to Denver, which will certainly change things a bit. We do get two quality pitchers here though, so the interesting move could be to grab one of them in favor of the offenses and hope they throw a masterpiece today. Trying to decide what to do here is always fun, so expect to see plenty of talk about it throughout the day.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Rizzo, Bryant
GPP note – Tough matchup against Marquez, but they do get to play at Coors
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Arenado, Story, Blackmon
GPP note -It’ll all depend on which Yu shows up, but if he’s off, this could get ugly
Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels
And finally, our hammer game is…THE BATTLE FOR LOS ANGELES!! Okay, sorry, I had to get that out of my system! Anyway, Ryu and the Dodgers will visit Canning and the Angels, and both teams are sure to bring their A-game here to try and grab the first bit of bragging rights from this series. The Dodgers certainly have the better pitcher in this one, though Canning has steadily improved all season, so look to him for a contrarian pick.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Pederson, Muncy, Seager
GPP note – Canning has been pretty decent, but the Dodger lefty squad is always worth a look
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Fletcher, Pujols, Puello
GPP note – Ryu has been pretty tough, so the Angels may have a limited ceiling here
Tiers!
Like I mentioned earlier, I provide a tiers breakdown for our members every day. I figured since I was running the show today that I would slide in a freebie. Let’s take a look at Tier 6:
Several of these batters are hitting well, though quite a few of these pitchers are doing pretty well themselves. Somebody like Moran or Peralta might be the best bets for cash games, and some arguments could be made for some of the others for GPP.
Closing thoughts
Thank you for joining me here today! I hope you found this article helpful with your research for today’s slate. I have some more GPP thoughts for you guys in the DFS Army, so be sure to check my channel and #mlb-news-and-notes this afternoon for those.
If you like what you see here and want to experience everything we have to offer, I’d encourage you to consider joining up with us. As you saw, we cover (and win!) all sports, not just the common ones. Just remember to use promo code NILLY to save 20% off for the lifetime of your active membership, for the best deal in daily fantasy sports. Until then, I hope you all have a great day!