Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. I normally give a quick glimpse of the top three pitchers in this report, but I’m going to leave that for VIP members for this slate, instead, I’ll break down some guys in interesting spots.
- Lucas Giolito – Giolito is priced up to the highest he has ever been, even though the Royals have an implied run total of 4.3 here. I like Giolito here, but I don’t think he is worth that price, I would rather target some of these bats on this slate. We have seen high priced pitchers disappoint all year, although I don’t think that this is one of those spots, I’ll head elsewhere on this slate.
- Zach Davies – For the second slate in a row we get an underpriced Brewers pitcher. Yesterday I wrote up Brandon Woodruff as one of my favorite plays due to his discounted price tag and he ended up scoring 28.5 Draftkings points. Although I don’t think Davies gets to that number, at this price he’s definitely worth a look at just $6.7k. He has a 2.20 ERA on the season and gets a Pirates offense that doesn’t scare me.
- Jack Flaherty – Flaherty is just coming off of a start against the Cubs in which he scored 20.9 Draftkings points. We saw Cole Hamels have a big day in similar weather conditions here yesterday. Be sure to check the Weather Station before lock, but I expect this to be another wind game for the Cubs and giving a big bump to pitching. The Cubs are also striking out at a 23% rate on the season which helps Flaherty’s upside and floor.
Full Count Breakdown:
Tampa Bay Rays (+147) @ Boston Red Sox (-160)
Neither of these pitchers is great and given the ballpark, I will be heavily fading both of them. The Red Sox are a great stack here. They have an implied run total of 5.4 runs and I expect them to take advantage of Ryan Yarborough here. The Sox make for a great stack.
TBR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Mini-stack
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Michael Chavis
GPP Note: Great stack for the showdown slates
Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers
Both of these pitchers are below average if we are being kind. I expect this to be a pretty high owned game given the pitching matchups and the fact that the game will be over 90 degrees for most of the game. The ball will fly here today and I love both of these offenses.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Khris Davis, Chad Pinder
4-star plays: Stephen Piscotty, Marcus Semien, Mark Canha
GPP Note: One of the best stacks on the board
TEX 5-star plays: Hunter Pence, Nomar Mazara, Shin-soo Choo
4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Danny Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ronald Guzman
GPP Note: One of the best stacks on the board
Chicago White Sox (-129) @ Kansas City Royals (+119)
Although I won’t have a lot of Lucas Giolito because of his price, I also won’t have any KC bats. Giolito is simply pitching too well right now to stack against. The White Sox bats are fine, but nothing I’m thrilled about.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Wellington Castillo (DK), Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: One-offs, mini-stacks
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’m not stacking against Giolito right now
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Arizona Diamondbacks (-131) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+124)
Zack Greinke is interesting here and I will likely have some exposure against this very weak Toronto lineup. The Jays have an implied run total of just 4 runs here, give me some Greinke. The Dbacks are really not a team that I like to stack, so I won’t be starting tonight against Aaron Sanchez.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: One-offs
TOR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr.
GPP Note: I like Greinke a good deal here
Cincinnati Reds (+126) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-137)
Nick Pivetta is a respectable pitcher and the Reds offense really isn’t great. I think I’ll have some Pivetta exposure here, the Reds strikeout at nearly a 26% rate, give me some Pivetta. As for the Phillies, Tanner Roark normally finds his way out of messes and can limit big innings. I don’t love the Phillies, but I also don’t hate them.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Nothing from the Reds really interests me
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Jay Bruce
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Jean Segura
GPP Note: There are some good plays here, but I would stick to mini-stacks
Atlanta Braves (-140) @ Miami Marlins (+130)
I kind of like Tehran here, I was off of Soroka yesterday because of the Marlins hot bats. But a matchup in Miami is hard to pass up when it comes to pitching. Miami strikes out at a 25% rate on the season, I don’t want any of their offense as I will likely get some Tehran here. Trevor Richards is priced way up to the point where I don’t think there is a whole lot of upside here, with that said, given the ballpark, I don’t need any Braves stacks.
ATL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley
GPP Note: One-offs
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: More interest in Tehran
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
Kyle Gibson has pitched well this season, while the Tigers offense has done the opposite. I don’t mind Gibson here as an expensive SP2 option. I will likely have some interest in the Twins, however, they are one of the best offenses in the league and will likely get a bullpen game.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Jason Castro( DK)
GPP Note: I like the Twins a lot, per usual
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I would rather have Kyle Gibson
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New York Yankees (-138) @ Cleveland Indians (+127)
I don’t love playing CC Sabathia at this point in his career just because the upside isn’t there, but you could do worse at SP2. The Yankees have an implied run total of 5.5 runs here but are a pretty expensive stack. I like the teams in Texas better, but the Yankees are in a good spot here.
NYY 5-star plays: Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: They’re a top 3 stack on the early slate
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I don’t love a lot here, but they will likely be extremely low owned.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+144) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-156)
I touched on Zach Davies earlier and think he’s way too cheap here, I like him a lot in this spot given the price tag. Jordan Lyles has pitched well this season, but pitchers go to die in Miller Park against this Brewers team. I’ll have some Brewers stacks while fading Lyles here.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Starlin Marte
GPP Note: I have more interest in Zach Davies
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal
4-star plays: Travis Shaw (Value), Eric Thames
GPP Note: The Brewers are a great pivot off of the Texas game and the Yankees
Baltimore Orioles (+214) @ Houston Astros (-235)
Valdez has been inserted into the rotation for the Astros and has some elite strikeout stuff. We will have to watch and see if he has a pitch limit here, but I wouldn’t expect him to. At his price, he is certainly viable as an SP2 option especially given the matchup. I normally don’t stack against Andrew Cashner and won’t start tonight.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Keon Broxton
GPP Note: One-offs
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick
GPP Note: One-offs and mini-stacks
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
This is the second game of the day-night doubleheader for these two teams. We will need to keep an eye on who the Rays start at pitcher in the first game because it will help narrow down who they start in game two. As for the Sox, David Price will take the mound and I don’t mind targeting him on short slates.
TBR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Mini-stack
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Michael Chavis
GPP Note: Great stack for the showdown slates
Los Angeles Dodgers (-213) @ San Francisco Giants (+194)
Whenever the Giants play at home I never love to attack offenses, but we can definitely take a look at some pitching here. When I say pitching, I mean Rich Hill. He’s just about as expensive as Lucas Giolito, but I think I like Hill more. He is safer with a touch less upside in a great ballpark. The Giants strikeout at nearly a 25% rate, so I think Hill is certainly in play here as one of the better pitchers on the slate.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Joc Pederson
GPP Note: One-offs
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Give me some Rich Hill
St. Louis Cardinals (-111) @ Chicago Cubs (+102)
I wrote up Jack Flaherty in my pitcher’s section, and I think he’s a great mid to top range option on this slate. If you really want to spend down at pitching you could throw him at SP1 with a guy like Steven Matz at SP2 and really stack up on bats. Jon Lester is a fraud, he’s giving up a hard contact percentage of 41% on the season and draws a pretty solid Cardinals offense. If the weather was more favorable to bats I would be loading up on the Cardinals, but for now, I’ll just say fade Lester and don’t be afraid to use some one-offs or mini-stacks against him.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Great for one-offs and mini-stacks
CHC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: I would rather play Jack Flaherty, I like him quite a bit here
Colorado Rockies (+123) @ New York Mets (-121)
This game features two pitchers that I think are very playable today. Of the two, with price taken into consideration, I like Steven Matz a bit more. He feels really underpriced here at sub $7k on Draftkings and the Rockies are really nothing special on the road. They average about 1.5 runs less per game on the road this season which should come as no surprise. The Rockies also strikeout at a 26.2% rate this season which makes Matz a solid SP2 option for me. I don’t have any interest in either of these offenses given the pitchers they will be facing.
COL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Just one-offs, I like Matz a good amount for an SP2
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Robinson Cano (value)
GPP Note: Jon Gray is a solid GPP pitching option
Oakland Athletics (-123) @ Texas Rangers (+114)
Much like the first game of the day, I will have a lot of interest in this game from a bats perspective. It’s going to be hot and the ball is going to fly against two very average pitchers. Chris Bassitt has proven he can throw a good game, but I’m not trusting him in this spot. Give me all the bats.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Khris Davis, Chad Pinder
4-star plays: Stephen Piscotty, Marcus Semien, Mark Canha
GPP Note: One of the best stacks on the board
TEX 5-star plays: Hunter Pence, Nomar Mazara, Shin-soo Choo
4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Danny Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ronald Guzman
GPP Note: One of the best stacks on the board
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Seattle Mariners (+118) @ Los Angeles Angels (-128)
Both of these pitchers are AAA ball pitchers, so I think we should look at the offenses here. Kikuchi has given up 10 runs and 20 hits over his past two starts over 6.2 innings. With that said, I never love stacking the Angels because the bottom of the lineup is so bad, but hitters one thru five or six are all in play. Dillon Peters just got called up from the minors, but I don’t know that I love the Mariners here, they are a secondary stack for me.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Mallex Smith, Domingo Santana
GPP Note: One-offs
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, David Fletcher
4-star plays: Tommy La Stella, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: I like the Angels here, but be picky with the guys you throw in your stack
Washington Nationals (-167) @ San Diego Padres (+154)
Max Scherzer is a great play here against the Padres in a pitchers ballpark, the Padres have an implied run total at just 3.3 runs. They strike out at a rate of 27% on the season, making Scherzer the top pitching play on the main slate and maybe even of the day depending on how much you like Hill and Giolito. I won’t be stacking either of these teams in this ballpark, so just focusing on Scherzer here.
WAS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Juan Soto
GPP Notes: One-offs
SDP 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Notes: All the Scherzer if you can afford them
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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