Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Steve aka @mutt18 on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
First Things First – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start by looking at the Research Station and find my main targets based on which teams on the slate have the lowest ISO and wOBA’s against that pitcher’s handedness. From there I then go to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. After my initial research, I’d rank my top 3 as of now at:
- Jacob deGrom – deGrom have been great over his last few starts, and faces off against a Braves team that he just shut down to the tune of 8.1 IP’s with 10 K’s. He has another great shot at repeating that today.
- Hyun-Jin Ryu – People will overlook him since he’s pitching in Coors, but the Rockies will be without Trevor Story who is one of their best hitters against LHP’s. As long as he navigates Nolan Arenado he should be lights out even in Coors.
- Mike Clevinger – He’s coming off the IL again, but it was only for a few days with a minor ankle injury. I can see him getting 80-95 pitches here, which against the Orioles is more than enough to shut them down. He should be in line for a QS and
After I get finished looking at pitching, I move on to my hitters. I look for which teams have the highest ISO against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing. ISO stands for Isolated Power and it is defined as:
ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits — and the type of extra-base hit — into account. For example, a player who goes 1-for-5 with a double has an ISO of .200.
Where do we get most of our fantasy points in DFS baseball? Home runs, and if a player has a high ISO it usually correlates very well with extra-base hits and home runs. So the higher a player’s ISO is, the more likely they are to produce hitting for extra bases and home runs, which in turn = more fantasy points! An average ISO is right around .140 and an elite ISO is anything above .250. Teams with the highest ISO’s on the slate tend to score more runs and are in turn more stackable. For more info on how to use ISO to your advantage, check out dabbingpuggle’s Tournament Strategy Guide here!
Full Count Breakdown:
Cleveland Indians (-180) @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers: Mike Clevinger vs. John Means
It looks like the weather is going to be solid for hitting conditions here, and the ball can really fly out in Baltimore. However, we have two solid pitching options in this game, as Clevinger is coming back off the IL for his ankle injury, which normally we would target, however this Orioles team has been pretty bad against RHP’s so far this year (.160 team ISO vs. RHP’s) as they rank 26th in overall ISO and have a team wOBA of .294 which is pretty middle of the road. I have confidence in Clevinger here as he should be in line for I’d think around 90-100 pitches and they strike out at a 23.1% to righties. He has a really solid shot at a QS and win here. Means has also been pretty solid for the Orioles this year, and the Indians have a team ISO of .159 against lefties on the year (21st in MLB) and K at a 21.4% rate which doesn’t blow me away at all. However he has been limiting damage pretty well as he’s giving up 1.02 HR/9 innings which is pretty average. If he gives up a solo shot here I can live with it, especially at his price point on both sites.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Jared Luplow (.408 ISO against LHPs in 2019), Roberto Perez, Mike Clevinger
GPP Note: I think one of the Indians RHH’s can get one off Means, but I don’t see them lighting him up, my favorite is Luplow of the group I have listed.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: John Means, Chris Davis (GPP only)
GPP Note: Means is a solid contrarian pitching option here, and I have Davis listed for his power potential, but he is a GPP only play due to his all or nothing HR/SO hitting ability.
Stackability:
Cleveland Indians – JOIN ME IN THE COACHES FORUMS FOR MY STACK RANKS HERE!
Baltimore Orioles –
Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers: Danny Duffy vs. Undecided
Normally I’d have some interest in Danny Duffy here…if he was pitching at home as the Royals home field is much more pitcher friendly than Toronto is. Toronto has been pretty middle of the pack at hitting lefties over the course of the season (.161 team ISO in 2019), but over the past two weeks they’ve been hitting lefties with more authority (.207 ISO vs. LHP’s over the last 2 weeks). I think a lot of it has come from the addition of Vlad Jr. and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (.417 ISO vs. LHP’s) who have both been crushing lefties, especially Gurriel. They also just roughed up James Paxton in Yankee Stadium where he has been pretty solid. The Blue Jays are undecided on their starter, and regardless of who they start I really don’t have much interest in stacking Royals here, as they rank 26th in overall team ISO and are also with one of their best hitters in Adalberto Mondesi still. The only way I stack the Royals is if the Blue Jays roll out Joe Biagini, who we’ve seen is basically a human pitching machine when he starts.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Royals are striking out at a 21.7% rate which is pretty middle of the road. I only have interest in Whit Merrifield as a one off due to his power/speed combo.
TOR 5-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
4-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: The Jays have really upped their offense over the past 2 weeks, the infusion of youth has really helped them, and I don’t see them being very highly owned on a big slate like this.
Stackability:
Kansas City Royals: JOIN ME IN THE FORUMS TO FIND OUT MY STACK RANKINGS
Toronto Blue Jays: JOIN ME IN THE FORUMS TO FIND OUT MY STACK RANKINGS
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets (-130)
Starting Pitchers: Mike Soroka vs. Jacob deGrom
I can’t see the total in this game being more than 7.5 runs as we have two really good pitching options here. Soroka is a really good young pitcher from the Braves who is currently 8-1 with an ERA of 2.07. He gets to face off against a Mets team who have a team ISO of .177 against RHP’s (19th in MLB) and K at a 22.5% rate against them (also 19th in MLB), which limits his K upside a bit here. I’d only use Pete Alonso here for a one off due to his elite power. deGrom on the other side has been phenomenal over his last few starts, and he shut this Atlanta team down just 10 days ago to the tune of 8.1 IPs with 10K’s and a W (59 FD points and 35.1 DK points) . I think he has a good shot to do it again here, as he gets the advantage of pitching at home. He’s one of my favorite options on the slate. I don’t have much interest in Braves bats either, only Freddie Freeman.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Soroka, Freddie Freeman
NYM 5-star plays: Jacob deGrom
4-star plays: Pete Alonso
Stackability:
Atlanta Braves: 1.5 Stars
New York Mets: 2 Stars
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers: Lance Lynn vs. Yonny Chirinos
This game is pretty blah from a fantasy perspective, as both of these pitchers have been pretty good at limiting damage so far this year (Lynn at 0.81 HR/9) but Chirinos is a bit more susceptible to the long ball at 1.45 HR/9, and that can spell a bit of danger for him, especially against these Ranger’s lefty bats. Gallo also double donged last night and is seeing the ball pretty well since coming back from the IL. The Rays haven’t been lighting up the world offensively over the past few weeks as they’ve only scored 8+ runs in 1 of their last 12 games and that was against the lowly Brett Anderson of the A’s. However, I do like Austin Meadows as a one off here, as the rest of the team has cooled off, but he’s been their best bat so far this year.
TEX 5-star plays: Joey Gallo
4-star plays: Lance Lynn, Nomar Mazara, Shin-Soo Choo
GPP Note: The Rangers are striking out at a 24.3% rate against RHP this season.
TAM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: The Rays are striking out at nearly a 23.2% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Texas Rangers: JOIN ME IN THE FORUMS TO FIND OUT MY STACK RANKINGS
Tampa Bay Rays: JOIN ME IN THE FORUMS TO FIND OUT MY STACK RANKINGS
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Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers: Anibal Sanchez vs. Daniel Norris
I actually like Anibal Sanchez in this game as the Tigers have been pretty bad offensively so far this year against everyone. (.147 team ISO and 26.2% K rate vs. RHP’s) which makes Sanchez actually somewhat safe here. The Nationals bats are also in store for a good game here, as Norris has been getting touched up in almost every start so far this year, and the Nationals have a few bats that can hurt him (specifically Anthony Rendon and his .344 ISO vs. LHP’s). I don’t have much interest in the Tigers bats aside from Goodrum and Castellanos who have been their best two hitters so far this year. However, Sanchez has been prone to blow up spots here, and if you think this is one of them the Tigers will be cheap and unowned, they make for a decent GPP contrarian stack, especially their lefty bats.
WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Anibal Sanchez, Brian Dozier, Howie Kendrick
GPP Note: The Nationals have a team ISO of .206 against LHP’s which is 8th in the MLB.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Niko Goodrum, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Detroit ranks second in the MLB in K% against RHP’s at 26.2%
Stackability:
Washington Nationals: JOIN ME IN THE COACHES FORUMS TO FIND OUT MY STACK RANKS!
Detroit Tigers:
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Starting Pitchers: Cole Hamels vs. Sonny Gray
We’ve got another solid game for pitching here, as Hamels and Gray have both been pretty solid so far this year. Hamels has a string of 5 QS’s in a row and hasn’t scored less than 31 FD FPs over that same time frame. However, the Reds don’t K at a high rate to LHP’s (20.9%) which limits his upside a bit. However, they aren’t that strong offensively so he has a good shot at continuing that streak. Gray has had some tough matchups, as his last three starts were against the Phillies, Rangers, and Brewers and gets another tough matchup in the Cubs and their .194 ISO against RHP’s. Their offense has also woken up a bit and get a bit of a park upgrade playing in Cincinnati. The Cubs bats are a viable stack here, especially their lefties. I don’t have much interest in the Red bats, aside from Eugenio Suarez (.222 ISO vs. LHP’s) and Yasiel Puig (.258 ISO) who both hit lefties well. They’re both solid one-offs with Puig getting the slight advantage.
CHC 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber (HR happy the past few weeks)
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Cole Hamels, Javier Baez, Jason Heyward
GPP Note: Cubs are striking out at a 22.9% rate to righties, which is middle of the pack.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Yasiel Puig (great one off play), Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Hamels has 5 straight QS and has a great shot at continuing that streak against the Reds.
Stackability:
Chicago Cubs: JOIN ME IN THE FORUMS TO FIND OUT MY STACK RANKINGS
Cincinnati Reds:
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers: Vince Velasquez vs. Elieser Hernandez
Vince Velasquez will continue trying to stick in the Phillies rotation, as he’s still auditioning in this role after his bad start to the year. His last start was against them and he went 5 innings with 5K’s and only 1 hit. The Marlins have been the worst offensive team in baseball, as they have a team ISO of .116 and a 25% K rate to RHP’s on the year. So if he can keep his pitch count down he has a good shot at a QS and W here, especially playing in the very pitcher friendly Marlins park. The Marlins do have random spots where they blow up though, and this is a possible one as Velasquez can be blow up prone. I have some nice interest in the Phillies bats, especially their lefties, as Hernandez is nothing special and the Phillies offense has been heating up a bit. Harper stands out here, along with Jay Bruce and Jean Segura.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Jay Bruce, Jean Segura, Vince Velasquez
GPP Note: Velasquez makes for a solid SP2 on DK, and a solid GPP play on FD.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Miguel Rojas, Neil Walker
GPP Note: MIA is striking out at 25% rate to RHP’s this year.
Stackability:
Philadelphia Phillies: JOIN ME IN THE FORUMS TO FIND OUT MY STACK RANKINGS
Miami Marlins:
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Starting Pitchers: Chris Archer vs. Jhoulys Chacin
The Brewers offense hasn’t really exploded like they can over the past few weeks, and this is a great spot for them to do it. Archer has been BADDDDDDDD this year (Giving up 2 HR/9 and has a 5.56 ERA). I’ll be loading up on the Brewers lefty bats here, and I advise you do the same. You can also load up on Pirates bats here, as they have been crushing the ball the last few games (14 and 10 runs in their last two games). Stack both sides of the Pirates bats, as Chacin has been bad against everyone (1.56 HR/9 and 5.88 ERA). I expect there to be some fireworks here. I can’t advise either pitching option in this game.
PITT 5-star plays: Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Kevin Newman, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Pirates have scored 24 runs over their last two games.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Ben Gamel, Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain
GPP Note: Brewers average 5 runs per game at home this year.
STACKABILITY:
Pittsburgh Pirates: JOIN ME IN THE FORUMS TO FIND OUT MY STACK RANKINGS
Milwaukee Brewers:
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Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
Starting Pitchers: Jose Berrios vs. Odrisamer Despaigne
Berrios is in a great spot here, as the White Sox have been pretty bad offensively as they rank 3rd highest in K% to RHP’s at 25.7% and they don’t really have any lefty bats that scare me here. While Berrios is better at home (2.32 ERA at Home vs. 3.40 ERA on the Road). I’m not worried about it too much here though as the White Sox really have struggled all year long and really don’t hit for power as shown by their .156 ISO against RHP’s. The Twins are in a really good spot offensively here, as they had a few down games but have come back pretty strong over their last few. Odrisamer Despaigne is on the bump for the White Sox today, and over his last 2 starts he’s given up 11 ER’s in just 7.1 IP’s. I don’t see him lasting long in this one, and the White Sox don’t have the world’s greatest bullpen. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Twins score 10+ runs in this one.
MIN 5-star plays: Jose Berrios, Jorge Polanco, Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Twins have the 2nd ranked offense in the MLB.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’m avoiding the White Sox all together here.
Stackability:
Minnesota Twins: JOIN ME IN THE COACHES FORUMS FOR MY STACK RANKINGS
Chicago White Sox:
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Starting Pitchers: Undecided vs. Wade Miley
Lefties versus the Mariners is a thing! They do have a solid team ISO of .209 against lefties on the year, but they K at a 25.6% rate which is one of the highest in the league. That ISO also takes into account them having Edwin Encarnacion who is a known lefty masher and he is no longer in their lineup. Miley has regressed a bit over his last two starts (9.1 IP, 8BB’s, 13 K’s and 7 ER’s). He also pitched against this Seattle team a few weeks ago and had 6 K’s and 3 ER’s in 5 innings along with another 3 walks. If he can get those walks under control the Mariner’s don’t really have any bats that scare me here. He’s a solid GPP option, especially on FanDuel where he’s only $7,100. The Mariners are undecided on a starter at the moment, which likely means they’ll us an opener and then give the second guy in the bulk of the relief innings. I definitely have interest in the Houston bats, especially since they disappointed in smash spots the past 2 games against the Pirates. They’re almost back to full health as they are now only missing Carlos Correa. Altuve, Alvarez, and Springer all have ISO’s over .200 on the year.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: The Mariners strike out at a 25.6% rate to LHP’s on the year and Miley is having a great year since joining the Astros.
HOU 5-star plays: Wade Miley, Yordan Alvarez, George Springer
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Josh Reddick, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Astros have disappointed in two smash spots over the past 2 games, so they should be lower-owned than they should be, and they make a great stack.
Stackability:
Seattle Mariners: 2 Stars
Houston Astros: 4.5 Stars
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers: Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. Antonio Senzatela
Ryu gets a big test here, as he’ll be pitching in Coors, and we saw Buehler get lit up there after absolutely rolling through the Rockies lineup at home. I still think he’s in a good spot, especially with Story on the IL. If he gave navigate Nolan Arenado and his .318 ISO vs LHP’s. The Rockies have a team ISO of .224 at home against LHP’s (that includes Story though) compared to a .170 on the road, so the Coors effect is very real for the Rockies. Senzatela got pretty lucky in his last start against the Dodgers in my opinion, as he has been getting lit up with regularity this year, but he has strung together two QS’s in a row. I don’t expect that here in Coors, as his last start at home he gave up 6 ER’s in 4 innings with 4 B’s and only 2 K’s for a score of a whopping 0 fantasy points. I have some serious interest in the Dodgers bats again here tonight, as they put up 12 runs just last night.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Dodgers only strike out at a 19.6% rate to RHP’s, so Senzatela really is in trouble here.
COL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon (actually hits lefties well with his .268 ISO against them).
GPP Note: If you want to get really crazy, you can stack the Rockies here as the Coors effect is real. Ryu has been phenomenal all year long, but the Rockies bats are as cheap as I’ve ever seen them at home given the matchup. They can be a great contrarian stack if you are banking on the Coors effect and what we saw happen to Walker Buehler last night.
Stackability:
Los Angeles Dodgers: JOIN ME IN THE COACHES FORUMS FOR MY STACK RANKINGS
Colorado Rockies:
Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers: Mike Fiers vs. Felix Pena
I think Mike Fiers is in trouble in this one, due to the fact that he is a big time fly ball pitcher (43.1%) and you combine that with the fact that the Angels just don’t strike out (17.4% K% to RHP’s) and we have a recipe for a big game from the Angels bats. They put up 8 runs last night, and I can see them getting 10+ in this one if they can connect for some early HR’s. I have some interest in the Angels bats here tonight. Pena has been just ok this year, and actually got lit up by this A’s team at home last time he faced them (7 ER’s in 1.2 IP’s) and I think they can get to him again tonight as well. There isn’t much upside for either starting pitcher in this one.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Khris Davis
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Matt Chapman, Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Oakland only K’s at a 21% rate to RHP’s on the year.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Tommy La Stella, Kole Calhoun, Justin Upton
GPP Note: As mentioned above, the Angels just don’t strikeout as shown by their 17.4% K rate, and Fiers gives up just over 1.5 HR/9.
Stackability:
Oakland A’s: JOIN ME IN THE FORUMS TO FIND OUT MY STACK RANKINGS
Los Angeles Angels:
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers: Michael Wacha vs. Eric Lauer
This is a great matchup for the Cardinals to get going, as they have been just flat out terrible offensively over the past month. In the month of June they have a .128 team ISO and have been striking out at a 23.7% rate to LHP’s. Lauer has also been pretty sharp aside from his start in Colorado (as we’ve seen from most pitchers) as he’s gotten a QS in 3 of his last 4 starts. The only thing that limits his upside is that he doesn’t K people at a high rate (6.97K’s/9 IPs). Michael Wacha also makes for an interesting start here, as he gets the park upgrade in the very friendly confines of San Diego. The Padres also strikeout at a 25.2% rate to RHP’s on the year. However, they have been pretty hot over the past few games (28 runs scored over the last 3 games). I do like both options of throwing out Wacha as an SP2 on DK and also stacking the Padres in another lineup.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Michael Wacha
GPP Note: Padres strikeout at a 25.2% rate to RHP’s on the year, which boosts Wacha’s ceiling.
SDP 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Eric Hosmer, Eric Lauer, Fernando Tatis Jr.
GPP Note: The Cardinals are bottom 3 in almost every offensive category over the month of June.
Stackability:
St. Louis Cardinals: JOIN ME IN THE COACHES FORUMS FOR MY STACK RANKINGS
San Diego Padres:
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers: Merrill Kelly vs. Shaun Anderson
I have a feeling that a lot of people will be stacking the Diamondbacks in this game, but San Francisco is too friendly of a hitter’s park for me as we’ve seen several pitchers have above average games where they should have gotten lit up (Jeff Samardzija anyone?). San Francisco is one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the MLB, and both of these starters will likely have some success here. Merrill Kelly has been very up and down all year, but I can see him getting you a QS with a solid shot at a W here as the Giants have a team ISO of .178 with a K % of 22% to RHP’s over the past month. Shaun Anderson has been struggling a bit as well, but gets to return home here where he has had more success. His last start at home he went 6 innings with 6 K”s with a W and QS bonus as well. Both of these guys are cheap and I don’t expect many runs to be scored here. I’ll only have interest in a few one off bats from both sides.
ARZ 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Merrill Kelly (GPP only), Ketel Marte, David Peralta
GPP Note: D-Backs are simply average at hitting RHP’s on the year (.177 team ISO) and elite vs. LHP’s (.229 team ISO).
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Shaun Anderson (GPP only), Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Giants have picked it up a bit offensively over the past month, but are still below-average at home.
Stackability:
Arizona Diamondbacks: JOIN ME IN THE FORUMS TO FIND OUT MY STACK RANKINGS
San Francisco Giants:
Make sure to check out the Coaches Notes/Players Picks as they will have this game covered for you in all areas. The pricing is so much different from the main slate that it can be tough to breakdown from a DFS standpoint. With that said, at first glance, I would be attacking the Cardinals offense and hoping to jump on them while the field views them as terrible plays after they haven’t scored many runs over the past week or so.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches. Don’t forget to use promo code MUTT18 for 20% off!
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