Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. These three guys are the highest ranked pitchers on the Carnage Report and none of them should really come as a surprise given their talent and their matchup.
- Jacob deGrom – deGrom has seemed to find his groove as of late, but I do worry a little bit about this matchup. This is looking like it will be a wind game in Wrigley and a wind game that is more favorable to hitters. The KScore is elite and he is the only guy with a Carnage under three, but I don’t know that I will have a ton of him here, with some of the underpriced pitchers on this slate that I will talk about shortly.
- Justin Verlander – This is another case of a great pitcher being in a tough spot. Verlander gets a matchup with a Yankees team that is very scary now that it is almost back to full health with Stanton and Judge in the lineup. Verlander only scored 14.1 Draftkings points in this matchup earlier this year and they are asking $12k for him. I think I would rather take the savings and go to deGrom at that point.
- Joey Lucchesi – Lucchesi has pitched very well as of late and gets a Pirates team that really doesn’t scare me. In a matchup with this team earlier this season, Lucchesi scored 20.8 Draftkings points. The Pirates strikeout at a 22.2% rate against left-handed pitching and have an implied run total of 4.2 here. His price feels a bit awkward and this is beginning to feel like a slate that I’ll pay down at pitching.
Full Count Breakdown:
Toronto Blue Jays (+144) @ Boston Red Sox (-156)
Both Stroman and Porcello are serviceable pitchers, but in a small ballpark with hot weather and the wind blowing out, I’ll take these offenses instead. The Red Sox are the side I would prefer, but they are also the more expensive side by quite a bit. The Jays are a cheaper stack if you’re looking to get one of those top end arms into your lineup.
TOR 5-star plays: Eric Sogard, Lourdes Gurriel
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Cheap stack if you want to pay up at pitching
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, Michael Chavis
GPP Note: The Red Sox are one of the better stacks on the slate
Miami Marlins (+159) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-173)
Jordan Yamamoto takes the mound again for the Marlins and has been nothing but stellar in his first two starts as a big leaguer. He has scored at least 26.8 Draftkings points in both starts and gets a matchup with a Phillies team in this one. Both of his starts have come against a scuffling Cardinals team, so we need to take them with a grain of salt, but he looks to have legit MLB talent. I don’t know that I’ll get to him here because there is a guy in that price range that I absolutely love today, but if you want to use both of those guys you can get yourself a pretty expensive stack. Oh yeah… and I’m not stacking the Marlins.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No reason to stack them on a big slate like this
PHI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Jay Bruce, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: I’m more willing to go with Yamamoto in this matchup than stack up the Phils
Detroit Tigers (+191) @ Cleveland Indians (-209)
The Indians are large favorites in a game that really doesn’t feature any great pitching. Meaning, their offense is what should give them an edge here. Daniel Norris isn’t a horrible pitcher but this Indians team has great DFSA Grades up and down the whole order.
The Tigers are just not a team I’ll have interest in here, I had interest in Aaron Civale yesterday in the same matchup and he scored 26.5 Draftkings points. Zach Plesac is an elite pitching option for me on this slate.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I love Plesac here
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jordon Luplow
4-star plays: Oscar Mercado, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Implied run total of 5.4, I like the Indians, but they’re not my favorite option.
Atlanta Braves (-136) @ Washington Nationals (+126)
Mike Soroka has given up 8 earned runs in his last 10 innings pitched, he’s very good, but in this matchup, I don’t think you can play him. With that said, I won’t have a ton of interest in this Nationals offense either, given the respect I have for Soroka’s talent. The Braves are very stackable here, however. This looks to be a bullpen game for the Nationals, who don’t have a great bullpen.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley
GPP Note: The Braves are up there with the Red Sox for top stacks options.
WAS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto
GPP Note: One-offs for me in a tough matchup
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San Diego Padres (-139) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+128)
I touched on Joey Lucchesi earlier and I think he is a fine option, I won’t talk you on or off of him here in this matchup. I won’t have interest in the Pirates offense either way because of Lucchesi’s talent, however. The Padres, on the other hand, make for a very intriguing stack. They have an implied run total of 5.2 against Steven Brault who isn’t exactly a gas can but can be prone to giving up some runs.
SDP 5-star plays: Wil Myers, Manny Machado, Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: I think they go under-owned here, I don’t love attacking offenses in this ballpark, but I like them.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: One-offs
Houston Astros (-127) @ New York Yankees (+117)
I touched on Justin Verlander earlier and this spot scares me a bit. The strikeouts are certainly there, but this feels like a game where he goes 6 innings of 4 or 5 run ball and striking out 9 or 10. That’s all fine and dandy, but at $12k I would prefer a better matchup. I won’t be stacking up the Yankees against him though, he is too good. The Astros draw a 5.3 implied run total against JA Happ here who has really fallen off this season. I don’t mind some Astros bats here.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley
GPP Note: I like the Astros better as a mini-stack
NYY 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Just the one-off power bats if you happen to fall on them.
Cincinnati Reds (+164) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-179)
Brandon Woodruff is my favorite pitcher on the slate at his price tag. $7.9k is simply too cheap for a guy that has proven 10 k upside this season. Yes, the Reds have been hitting well and are in a good ballpark but Woodruff has actually allowed more runs on the road than at home this season, in more home starts as well. The Reds strikeout at a 24% clip on the season to right-handed pitching. This is more of a pricing play than anything else, but it allows us to get some high-end stacks in there. The Brewers did some weird stuff with their lineup yesterday which included Yasmani Grandal hitting lead-off, they won so I don’t know that this will change. DeSclafani has been bad against left-handed hitting in his career so the Brewers make for a great stacking option. Look at the DFSA Grades at these left-handed hitters for Milwaukee…
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I love Woodruff here
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal
4-star plays: Eric Thames, Travis Shaw
GPP Note: I love the lefties here
Minnesota Twins (-145) @ Kansas City Royals (+133)
Happy Homer Bailey day! I play him a lot every fifth day, but today is a day that I will likely be underweight. The Twins offense is elite and I like some other mid-range options more. I think both of these offenses are options for GPPs and the Twins are playable in cash.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Nelson Cruz, Whoever’s catching
GPP Note: Twins make for a very nice stacking option here.
KCR 5-star plays: Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: The Royals are better for GPP stacking
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New York Mets (-107) @ Chicago Cubs (-101)
This looks like it will be a wind game in favor of the hitters with the wind blowing out to left at 10-11 mph. However, we have two great pitchers on the mound who will try to combat that. I think this is simply a stay away game for me. I don’t really want to attack either of these pitchers but aren’t thrilled with them as SP options either.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Peter Alonso
GPP Note: Cole Hamels is good, just one-offs here
CHC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: One-offs here as well
Chicago White Sox (+126) @ Texas Rangers (-136)
The final game on the main slate should be a popular one for bats as it has a total of 11.7. Neither of these pitchers is any good, so both offenses are options here. I would rather be using the Rangers, as Ivan Nova just is brutal. Whereas Adrian Sampson has actually thrown some nice games this season. Both stacks should be pretty highly owned.
CHW 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: One of the better stacks on the slate
TEX 5-star plays: Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Asdrubal Cabrera
4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Ronald Guzman, Willie Calhoun
GPP Note: Probably the top stack on the slate, but will be popular
Tampa Bay Rays (+105) @ Oakland Athletics (-113)
I don’t ever love stacking up teams in Oakland, this ballpark just seems to suppress runs with the best of ’em. With that said, these pitchers aren’t anything special, so if you’re playing the late slate you can certainly look this way and hope to get different.
TBR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: GPP stack only
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson
GPP Note: GPP Stack only
San Francisco Giants (+133) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-144)
Both of these pitchers are solid enough for to not want to fully stack against them and I will have quite a bit of interest in Merrill Kelly on the late slate. The Diamondbacks rate pretty well in terms of DFSA Grades, so I don’t mind a full stack of them on the late slate.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’ll have a good amount of Merrill Kelly here
ARI 5-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Implied run total of 5 runs is enough to get me in the door, solid stack
Colorado Rockies (+183) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-200)
Kenta Maeda will likely be the chalk pitching option on the late slate and for good reason. This Rockies team just isn’t good away from home, whereas Maeda is the opposite and scores 6 Draftkings points more per game at home this season. The Dodgers never get ownership at home and I always take advantage of that, they will be my highest owned stack on this late slate.
COL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: They’re just too expensive for being on the road
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Favorite stack on the late slate
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Baltimore Orioles (+157) @ Seattle Mariners (-171)
Another game with some pretty bad pitching options. I don’t mind stacking either side of this game, but if choosing give me the Mariners. That Orioles bullpen is just so bad, with an implied run total of 5.5 the Mariners are right up there with the Dodgers for me on this slate.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini, Keon Broxton
GPP Note: GPP stack
SEA 5-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Domingo Santana, Mallex Smith
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Top stack on the late slate
Los Angeles Angels (+123) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-133)
Make sure to check out the Coaches Notes/Players Picks as they will have this game covered for you in all areas. The pricing is so much different from the main slate that it can be tough to breakdown from a DFS standpoint. With that said, at first glance, I would be attacking the Cardinals offense and hoping to jump on them while the field views them as terrible plays after they haven’t scored many runs over the past week or so.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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