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DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown, Advice, and Strategy for FanDuel and Draftkings – June 22nd, 2019

Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three guys that I find particularly interesting on today’s slate.

  • Hyun-Jin Ryu – Ryu has been one of the best pitchers in the league this year and is flying way under the radar. Tonight he gets a matchup with a Colorado team away from Coors, which is something we like to see if we’re using a pitcher against them. The Rockies are striking out at a 23.5% rate on the season and average two fewer runs per game on the road than at home. Ryu is also much better at home this season where he is averaging 27.5 Draftkings points per game at home and 18.3 Draftkings points per game on the road. I haven’t been paying up much at pitching this season, but I think we can take Ryu into consideration here tonight.
  • Chris Archer – This is a spot where I could see Archer being popular. People often see a matchup with the Padres and immediately target the pitcher. However, I’ve done the opposite with Archer this season he just doesn’t look the same as the days where we could expect double-digit strikeouts from him. With that said, the Padres strikeout at a 26.5% rate on the season and are in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. If you play Archer be sure to hedge it with a Padres stack because this is a good offense and has an implied run total of 4.7 tonight.
  • Elieser Hernandez – Hernandez is my favorite cheap pitcher on the slate and I will likely have a lot of him here in GPPs just due to the way I play. He has scored at least 16.5 Draftkings points in his last two starts and seems to have settled in as a major league starter. The Phillies lineup is a bit scary but there are some strikeouts here with the Phillies striking out at nearly a 23% rate on the season. At his price tag, he doesn’t need to do a ton and has legit 8-10 strikeout upside.

Full Count Breakdown:

Minnesota Twins (-181) @ Kansas City Royals (+161)

The Twins finally broke out of their mini-slump last night, a day after I stack them of course. But they draw a matchup with Danny Duffy here who has been less than great. The Twins have one of the most explosive offenses in baseball and have an implied run total of 5.5 here, I like them quite a bit. Jose Berrios will be in my pitching pool today, as the Royals strikeout at a 23.5% rate this season. I like Berrios better at home, but I’m willing to ignore that here.

MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, CJ Cron, Nelson Cruz

4-star plays: Max Kepler, Miguel Sano

GPP Notes: The Twins are one of my favorite stacks on the day

KCR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Berrios here


Los Angeles Angels @ St. Louis Cardinals

I think I’ve used Dakota Hudson in each of his last three starts because of his great matchups, but he draws a white-hot Angels team here. This Angels offense is much different when Ohtani isn’t in it and he normally isn’t when they’re in an NL park. Mike Trout and Justin Upton are very scary but I don’t hate the idea of going down to Hudson in tournaments. The Cardinals have to break out of this slump they’re in at some point right? If I’m stacking someone from this game it will be the Cards.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Justin Upton

4-star plays: Tommy La Stella, Albert Pujols

GPP Notes: Mini-stacks and one-offs

STL 5-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong

4-star plays: Matt Carpenter

GPP Note: They are a very cheap stack and an offense with a lot of talent


New York Mets (+125) @ Chicago Cubs (-135)

This looks like it has the potential to be a wind game for the Wrigley with the wind blowing in at around 11 mph. If that is the case I will have some interest in these pitchers. I certainly won’t have interest in these offenses, so we can dig deeper into Wheeler and Quintana. Wheeler has been a bit all over the place lately but draws a Cubs team that strikes out 23% of the time in a wind game. You could do worse. As for Quintana, he feels very underpriced right now and I’m willing to attack that price tag if it allows me to pay up for some more bats.

NYM 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Peter Alonso

GPP Notes: Wind game in Wrigley, you want the pitchers

CHC 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo

GPP Note: Quintana allows you to jam in some high priced stacks, don’t be afraid to do so.

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox

A day after Chris Sale pitches, the Red Sox roll out Brian Johnson. Brian Johnson who has a 10.00 ERA on the season, yes a lot of that game in one game, but hey. He’s pitching in a hitters paradise in tonight’s game. I never love rolling with the Blue Jays because they have a lot of buzzsaws in their lineup, but they’re worth a look in GPPs as a cheap stack. The Red Sox are also very stackable against Mr. Law for the Jays, both of these teams feel like above average options here.

TOR 5-star plays: Vladamir Guerrero, Eric Sogard, Lourdes Guirrel

4-star plays: Randal Grichuk

GPP Notes: GPP option at the least

BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi

4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Michael Chavis, Xander Bogaerts

GPP Note: The only thing that may keep me off the Red Sox today are their prices


San Diego Padres (-119) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+110)

I touched on Chris Archer briefly when breaking down pitchers, he’s a guy that I’ve been stacking against all season, but I actually think he is playable here. For that reason, I don’t have a ton of interest in the Padres. Chris Paddack is an elite young pitcher, pitching in a pitchers park, no thank you for the Pirates bats.

SDP 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Manny Machado, Hunter Renfroe

GPP Notes: I’ll have more Archer than the Padres

PIT 5-star plays: No

4-star plays: Zip

GPP Note: Paddack is elite, we don’t need to go here on a 10/15 game slate depending on which one you’re playing


Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies

Elieser Hernandez was broken down in the pitcher’s section and he is my favorite cheap arm of the day. He has proven to have strikeout upside at the major league level and allows us to pay up for bats, I’ll have a ton of him today. I’m not sure what the plan is for Velasquez, they’ve been using him as an opener and I don’t expect that to change. Maybe people will blindly pick him because he faces the Marlins, but I will be staying far away.

MIA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Brian Anderson, Starlin Castro (value)

GPP Notes: No need to go with the Marlins on a large slate here

PHI 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, Jay Bruce

GPP Note: I love Hernandez here so I won’t have a ton of Phillies bats, but with that said, Hernandez is young and could be prone to a few big innings, so a hedge stack isn’t the worst idea if having a lot of exposure.


Tampa Bay Rays @ Oakland Athletics

Runs never get scored in Oakland it feels like, so I’m willing to go with Yonny Chirinos here. He has scored at least 15.9 Draftkings points in three straight games and gets a matchup that really doesn’t scare me in Oakland. Mike Fiers on the other side has actually pitched very well as of late, but I don’t know that I can pay over $9k for him out of principle.

TBR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, Brandon Lowe

GPP Notes: One-offs, I don’t want to stack in Oakland

OAK 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Khris Davis, Matt Olson

GPP Note: I like Chirinos here, but there are some cheap power bats in the A’s lineup if you happen to fall on them.


 Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians

The Tigers roughed up Trevor Bauer last night and draw Civale tonight who takes the place of Mike Clevinger. Civale has been pretty good in the minors this season with a sub-three ERA and a 4:1 strikeout to walk rate. I don’t hate the idea of using him here against a brutal Tigers offense. I don’t want to use Spencer Turnbull, but I also don’t want to stack against him so this is a stay away spot for me.

DET 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Nick Castellanos

GPP Notes: I might actually have some Civale interest here

CLE 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Oscar Mercado

GPP Note: One-offs

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Cincinnati Reds (-106) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-102)

The Brewers are scuffling right now, but their offense broke through last night and was finally able to put some runs on the board. This is normally a series that is full of runs scored so both offenses are in play for me today. I would stay away from both pitchers especially Luis Castillo at that massive price tag.

CIN 5-star plays: Derek Dietrich, Eugenio Suarez, Nick Senzel

4-star plays: Yasiel Puig, Joey Votto

GPP Notes: They will be the more popular side of this game, but they have scored in bunches in the past couple of games.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas

4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Ryan Braun, Eric Thames

GPP Note: I’m going to go out on a limb here and say Luis Castillo gets roughed up and the Brewers score 6+ runs.


Baltimore Orioles (+140) @ Seattle Mariners (-152)

Nobody stacked up the Mariners in an Orioles bullpen game except for yours truly last night and it worked like a charm. With that said, I don’t stack against Andrew Cashner, so this is a spot where I jump off. I would expect Tommy Milone to be pretty popular here, personally, I would rather go down to Hernandez or Quintana and save even more. I don’t hate an Orioles stack to get leverage on the field.

BAL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini, Renato Nunez

GPP Notes: GPP stack

SEA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Domingo Santana, Mallex Smith

GPP Note: One-offs


Atlanta Braves (+115) @ Washington Nationals (-125)

This game should come with a lot of scoring with Mike Foltynewicz and Anibal Sanchez on the mound. Both teams have implied run totals over 5, I don’t hate a full game stack here. If I had to choose a side it would be the Braves. I like stacking road teams because you get guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats, and let’s face it, their offense is really good.

ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley

4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Josh Donaldson, Dansby Swanson

GPP Notes: Love the Braves here

WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Trey Turner, Anthony Rendon

4-star plays: Matt Adams, Adam Eaton

GPP Note: I like the Braves more, but you really can’t go wrong here


 Colorado Rockies (-234) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-258)

Ryu is a guy I broke down with the pitchers, he is simply one of the best pitchers in baseball right now. The Dodgers are massive favorites and almost always go under-owned at home, so I don’t hate stacking them up here if Cody Bellinger is back in the lineup. The only problem with the Dodgers is Dave Roberts’ willingness to pinch hit guys for platoon advantages, but I don’t worry about it too much with the big-boppers outside of Joc Pederson.

COL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Notes: There’s no reason to play the Rockies here

LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Justin Turner

4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Alex Verdugo

GPP Note: I like the Dodgers stack here quite a bit

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Houston Astros (+150) @ New York Yankees (-163)

I used James Paxton in this spot last night, so I don’t hate the idea of Mashiro Tanaka here as the Astros slowly begin to get healthy. On the other side, similar to Andrew Cashner, I don’t stack against Wade Miley, but there are some great one-off power bats you can use here.

HOU 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley

GPP Notes: One-offs

NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge

4-star plays: Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez

GPP Note: This lineup is getting healthy so we will stack them a lot this season, just not here.


Chicago White Sox (+175) @ Texas Rangers (-190)

The Rangers have a massive 6.5 implied run total here and will likely be the most popular offense on the main slate. I don’t hate pivoting to the Braves, Dodgers or Nats, but the Rangers are in a great spot so don’t go too crazy. Lance Lynn is pitching out of his mind this year, no White Sox for me.

CHW 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Notes: Lance Lynn is #Ballin

TEX 5-star plays: Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Asdrubal Cabrera

4-star plays: Delino Deshields, Elvis Andrus, Rougned Odor, Ronald Guzman

GPP Note: Probably the best stack on the main slate


 San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks

The Giants were a bit more popular than I could believe last night but they allowed you to fit in two big arms. I think we can jump off that wagon here as Zach Godley isn’t great, but I think he can keep them down. The Dbacks are very expensive, but get a great matchup with Tyler Beede here. They’re my 4th stack on the slate, however.

SFG 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Notes: I’ll let people chase this spot

ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte, David Peralta, Jarrod Dyson

4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar

GPP Note: As I said, 4th stack on the slate for me


As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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