Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count!! I’m your buddy @DFSnDONUTS and you can find me on YouTube | Twitch | iTunes with supplemental commentary and teaching. I am going to break down every single game for you in a clear and concise way as to who I would like to target on each team. Let’s not waste anytime and dive right in.
CLE -129 @ TEX +119
While the Indians do have a 4.8 implied run total (IRT) at the open, they are facing Mike Minor who has had some success this season. He actually has held opposing teams to 2, 1, 3, 0, 2, and 3 earned runs in his last six starts across 37 IP. He also struck out 43 along the way. For the single game showdown in the afternoon, Minor is a nice way to leverage the Indians ownership and if they are on the two-game afternoon slate, then he’s a great GPP option and a price point pivot away from the more popular Shane Biberlicious (Indians starting pitcher, duh!)
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Shane Bieber, Linder, Santana, Mercado, Ramirez
GPP note – This entire team is in play if you are stacking them against Minor. I like Minor a bit more just because of how left-handed hitting heavy the Indians lineup is but Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Oscar Mercado, and Jose Ramirez will all hit from the right side.
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Mike Minor
4 Star Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Elvis Andrus
GPP note – A nice way to leverage the popular Bieber would be to stack against him on a two-game slate with the Rangers hitters. In this case, I would want to grab Danny Santana and Rougned Odor and slap them in there with the above 4 star plays from the Rangers.
COL +143 @ ARI -156
The Rockies have just a 4.0 IRT and the Diamondbacks have just a 5.1 IRT. I actually thought Arizona would open a bit higher than this so I am on the Dbacks hitters hoping that they come through in a big way. Hoffman has given up 7 HRs and 20 ER in his last 25.2 IP.
Away Team
5 Star Plays – Nolan Arenado
4 Star Plays – Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
GPP note – This is a good three-man stack to pair with the Rangers leverage against Bieber + Mike Minor as your pitcher. On DraftKings you’d likely want to pair Hoffman as your second pitcher to leverage the Dbacks ownership with this build.
Home Team
5 Star Plays – David Peralta, Ketel Marte
4 Star Plays – Eduardo Escobar, Adam Jones, Jarrod Dyson
GPP note – The whole team is in play and I like them more than I do Cleveland and Texas bats. I think Hoffman might be in trouble here and the only reason I would roll out Hoffman with Minor is for the ultimate leverage build and toss that into a satellite tournament.
PHI @ WAS
There is no line as of the time of my gorgeous hands typing on my laptop. I could be a hand model, like George Costanza. Pitchers aren’t entirely clear and it looks like Stephen Strasburg is likely to take the mound for the Nationals but I can’t get a good read on the Phillies. Early reports look like Nick Pivetta so we will go with that and update.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Scott Kingery (on fire!), Bryce Harper
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Trea Turner, Juan Soto
4 Star Plays – Matt Adams, Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon, Brian Dozier
GPP note – Pivetta has allowed a 0.497 wOBA and 0.402 AVG with just 17.0% strikeout rate in 94 plate appearances against him from this Nats roster. YIKES!
HOU @ NYY
There is no line at the open right now and we have an interesting matchup between Framber Valdez who has looked great as a rookie and the Yankees lineup that is a nightmare for lefties.
Away Team
5 Star Plays – Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvaraez, Josh Reddick
4 Star Plays – Framber Valdez (leverage option against Yankees ownership and has been GREAT), Tyler White, Robinson Chirinos, Jose Altuve
GPP note – Stack em up and stack em high. I really dig this spot.
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Nestor Cortez Jr. is the long reliever and is just 4k on DK with strikeout upside! LOVE this play for any non-Astros stacked teams.
4 Star Plays – The entire Yankees lineup. Honestly, they’re all great plays and I’ll be stacking them up using the randomized stacking option. They might roll out 9 right-handed hitters and 8 of them will have immense power. Dangerous team against lefties the rest of the season.
GPP note – Stack city right here. Randomized stack function perfect for the Yankees.
LAA -150 @ TOR +138
The Angels keep crushing the ball and this team is on fire. Clayton Richard has given up a 56% hard hit rate in his last two starts while giving up 14 hits in just 7.2 IP and walking another 4 hitters. This has lead to 2 HRs and 12 ERs. YIKES.
Away Team
5 Star Plays – Mike Trout, Justin Upton
4 Star Plays – David Fletcher, Albert Pujols, Shohei Ohtani, Tommy La Stella, Kole Calhoun
GPP note – The Blue Jays bullpen has been used a TON this series (and all season) and they’re going to be in a world of hurt and likely have to leave Richard out there for 85-90 pitches even if he’s getting shelled just to give the bullpen a breather. I’ll discuss them during my MME Playbook later today, too.
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Vladimir Guerrero Jr is finally seeing a price drop, Randal Grichuk
GPP note –
MIA +146 @ STL -158
Zac Gallen is a Minor League BEAST and I love that nobody knows who he is. Gallen had a 0.71 WHIP and 112 K’s in 91.1 IP through 14 starts (only 17 walks, too!) in the Minors. The kid can pitch.
Away Team
5 Star Plays – Zac Gallen
4 Star Plays –
GPP note – Better spots on the slate than to target the Miami bats.
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note – Fading the Cardinals
NYM +124 @ CHC -134
Tyler Chatwood has had some big league success and his price tag is low. Walker Lockett has not been good and loses control too often. There is no line yet but I would imagine the Cubs open around 5.0 while the Mets will be 4.5 or so.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Robinson Cano, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Peter Alonso
GPP note – Mets stack in play and the lefties could get a few free bases against Chatwood who loves walking people.
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Kyle Schwarber
4 Star Plays – Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Carlos Gonzalez
GPP note – I might like this spot a bit more if the wind was blowing out and it was warmer. But it’s not.
CIN +134 @ MIL -145
Tanner Roark has been decent this season and the Brewers continue to show up in a big way or disappear all together. I like both sides in this game.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Tanner Roark is cheap! Jessie Winker, Nick Senzel, Eugenio Suarez
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Christian Yelich
4 Star Plays – Yasmani Grandal, Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas if he’s active
GPP note – I like the lefties in this one but prefer randomized stack setting with a healthy 5.3 IRT.
MIN -186 @ KCR +171
Odorizzi could feast on the Royals in this one but his price tag is just too high. He’s in play for MME but I would not go out of my way to target him in SE tournaments or satellites.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note – I am not sure who the Royals are throwing to the wolves here. It likely will be a warm body that will be throwing batting practice for a loaded lineup. The Twins have a 5.6 IRT and the Royals haven’t even named a starter. Wild. When we find out tune into our Slack channels to find out who’s in play. For me, randomized stack function puts the entire lineup in play in a big way. Check out the MME Playbook later.
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Whit Merrifield as a one-off
GPP note –
TAM -110 @ OAK +102
Charlie Morton and Frankie Montas are pricey but can both deliver in this matchup. I am pretty much off both teams hitters without hesitation due to the other great teams in great spots on Thursday.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Charlie Morton
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Frankie Montas
GPP note –
SFG +177 @ LAD -193
Julio Urias is back in the rotation? Wild times! Across 13 IP since May 25th he has 9 Ks and has given up 3 HR and 4 ER with 5 walks. Ah, there is the Urias I remember. He’s brimming with talent but walks way too many people and is prone to the long ball. Fortunately, he faces the Giants! On top of that, he’s not stretched out and has not topped 41 pitches this season. That makes this easy.
Madison Bumgarner has looked decent this season and is in play against the Dodgers as a low-owned tournament option. He recently held them to 1 ER in 7 IP on June 9th. Earlier this season, he threw 6 IP and struck out 8 on May 1st. And if we look back to April 2nd, we see that he went 6 IP and struck out 4 more. So across 19 IP, he has 17 Ks and has allowed just 2 ER. Fade the Dodgers!
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Madison Bumgarner!
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note – Fade the Dodgers
BAL +124 @ SEA -134
Dylan Bundy has strikeout upside here and finally isn’t going to be pitching in hot and humid Baltimore. The Mariners opened with a 4.9 IRT but Bundy has 8, 4, 6, and 8 K’s in his last four starts and has looked strong for the past 6 weeks. He’s one of my favorite targets on the entire slate on both sites.
Fortune Favors the Bold!
Donuts