Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
The start of my daily process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.
- Justin Verlander – Verlander and his strikeouts head to an NL ballpark to take on a pretty weak offense. I can’t express how much I love the upside in this spot. He threw a hell of a game against the Brewers last time out with just a couple of mistakes that I don’t think Cincinnati can take advantage of.
- Jack Flaherty – Flaherty should have little trouble with the weak-hitting Marlins, pitching at home. His game logs recently leave a lot to be desired and I hope that is enough to push people elsewhere. He has a big K upside game but has struggled with HRs at times this season. There aren’t many bats to be afraid of in terms of HRs on the Marlins roster.
- Brandon Woodruff – The K upside in this spot might surpass every other SPs on this slate. SD can absolutely strike out with the best of them against RHP and Woodruff has the stuff, as evidenced by the two 10K games over his last 4 starts.
Full Count MLB Breakdown:
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (-135)
The game opened with a run total set at 10. The Rays were just dominated by Tanaka on Monday night and now face a pitcher who can do the exact same thing, from the opposite side. Happ has had some rough starts but seems to be settling in for the most part. The Rays will start with Stanek as the opener and then most likely hand the ball to Yarbrough.
TBR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Guillermo Heredia
GPP Note: TB strikes out at nearly a 28% rate against LHP.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion, Luke Voit
GPP Note: NYY strikes out at nearly a 27% rate against LHP (Yarbrough).
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals (-112)
This game opened with a run total set at 10. Last game getting rained out Monday night really upset a lot of people (we were all over the game here at DFS Army). We “should” be seeing the same pitching match-up that we expected Monday night, but make sure you pay attention to see if they have decided to skip starts or not. I am higher on the WAS side in this one as Arrieta can have a TON of trouble with LHBs.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Scott Kingery
GPP Note: PHI strikes out at just a 21% rate against LHP.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Matt Adams
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: WAS strikes out at a 24% rate against RHP.
Los Angeles Angels (-120) @ Toronto Blue Jays
The game opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. The Angels showed off the power against Edwin Jackson and some of the bullpen Monday night and I think that carries over in a tougher spot, against Stroman. The Angels roster has 25 hits in 57 career ABs against Stroman.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Albert Pujols, Jonathan Lucroy
GPP Note: LAA is striking out at just over a 17% rate against RHP.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Freddy Galvis
GPP Note: TOR is striking out at a 24% rate against LHP.
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Houston Astros (-170) @ Cincinnati Reds
This game has opened with a run total set at 8. I want all the Justin Verlander in this spot, even in a bandbox. Out of Verlander’s 15 starts this season, 13 of them have been quality starts. He is EXTREMELY reliable and the match-up is strong, especially getting to face the pitcher spot in the lineup. The HOU side isn’t all that exciting offensively with all the guys being hurt.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick
GPP Note: HOU is striking out over an 18% rate against RHP.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: CIN is striking out at under a 25% rate against RHP.
New York Mets (-120) @ Atlanta Braves
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. I am very intrigued by this game as the Braves offense is clicking right now but they face the reigning Cy-Young winner, deGrom. Will be interesting to see which side gets the better of who. As a roster, the Braves have had some success against deGrom. On the other side, Teheran is the lesser pitcher but has the better match-up against a weaker offense. Teheran needs to cut back on the walks because he is holding teams down in terms of hits on the season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Robinson Cano, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: NYM is striking out at under a 24% rate against RHP.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: ATL is striking out at a 22% rate against RHP.
Cleveland Indians (-120) @ Texas Rangers
This game has opened with a run total set at 10.5. Plesac struggles striking out LHBs so far in his young MLB career but he has been really good on the road (2 starts) so far. If Texas was fully healthy, I think he would be in some trouble here but they aren’t so he has some wiggle room. The total is high enough that I won’t bother with either P in this game.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Oscar Mercado, Jake Bauers
GPP Note: CLE, shockingly, is striking out at just a 22% rate against RHP.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Danny Santana, Elvis Andrus
GPP Note: TEX is striking out at a 25% rate against RHP.
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Boston Red Sox (-115) @ Minnesota Twins
This game has opened with a total set at 10. This game has two very possible outcomes, the scoreboard gets lit up with runs or it turns into a 3-2 pitching duel. Price is coming off of a rough start and the Twins hit LHP EXTREMELY well, while the Red Sox have the ability to pound away at Michael Pineda. I think this is an excellent game to stack multiple ways.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Michael Chavis
GPP Note: BOS is striking out at just a 21% rate against RHP.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Marwin Gonzalez, CJ Cron
GPP Note: MIN is striking out at under a 21% rate against LHP.
Miami Marlins @ St. Louis Cardinals (-220)
This game opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. I really like the pitching match-up in this spot. We know about Flaherty and his ability but the Marlins are running out a youngster in Yamamoto that pitched EXTREMELY well against the Cardinals last week. I think the Cards offense will put up a little bigger fight in this one but I was impressed by the kid.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Harold Ramirez
GPP Note: MIA is striking out at over a 25% rate against RHP.
STL 5-star plays: Paul DeJong
4-star plays: Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: STL is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP.
Baltimore Orioles @ Oakland Athletics (-240)
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Both sides have merit for GPPs in terms of offenses. Brett Anderson doesn’t strike many guys out, so I have some interest in a few of the Orioles guys hitting LHP extremely well. Oakland is in a great spot as Ynoa is a reverse splits RHP who has struggled mightily this season with RHBs.
BAL 5-star plays: Hanser Alberto
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Pedro Severino
GPP Note: BAL is striking out at over a 26% rate against LHP.
OAK 5-star plays: Khris Davis, Matt Chapman
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: OAK is striking out at just over a 21% rate against RHP.
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San Franciso Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-280)
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. Kershaw is a monster home favorite in this one. I suggest you don’t get too cute and just get exposure to him. The Giants offense is FAR from dangerous while the Dodgers offense is extremely dangerous. Anderson had some solid K numbers in the minors but that hasn’t translated in the majors so far.
SFG 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kevin Pillar
GPP Note: SF is striking out at over a 24% rate against LHP.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: LAD is striking out at just a 20% rate against RHP.
Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners (-130)
This game opened with a run total of 9.5. While this game has a higher total, I do not see a lot to like. Seattle’s offense has been horrendous and they recently dealt Encarnacion away. The Royals are far from dangerous while Kikuchi can show signs of having excellent stuff. I think this is a game to find some one-offs in plus lineup spots.
KCR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Cheslor Cuthbert, Jorge Bonifacio
GPP Note: KC is striking out at nearly a 26% rate against LHP.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Omar Narvaez
GPP Note: SEA is striking out at a 25% rate against RHP.
Milwaukee Brewers (-155) @ San Diego Padres
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. I love this spot for Woodruff as he gets a very high strikeout team that is loaded with RHBs. Logan Allen is making his major league debut tonight for the Padres. He is an LHP so that should help him slightly against a tough Brewers offense. He has had some strong K numbers throughout his minor league career but has struggled a bit this season in the PCL (an extreme hitters league).
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: MIL is striking out at a 22% rate against LHP.
SDP 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
GPP Note: SD is striking out at nearly a 27% rate against RHP.
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-145)
This game opened with a run total of 8.5. I think this is the spot to jump on Mitch Keller as one of your GPP SPs. He is a highly touted pitching prospect and has had a rough go of it so far. The match-up with DET is definitely ideal as he gets to face them at home, without the use of the DH (Miguel Cabrera).
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: DET is striking out at nearly a 27% rate against RHP.
PIT 5-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Starling Marte
4-star plays: Kevin Newman
GPP Note: PIT is striking out at nearly a 26% rate against LHP.
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs (-240)
The Chicago series opens with a total set at 8.5 runs. Hamels definitely needs to be on our radar in this spot as a HUGE home favorite. The Cubs offense is in an excellent spot going up against Nova. The weather is pretty neutral for a Wrigley game so nothing really stands out as must attack.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, James McCann
GPP Note: CWS is striking out at a 24% rate against LHP.
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras
4-star plays: Carlos Gonzalez, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: CHC is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP.
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Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-135)
This game opened with a run total of 10. I am very interested in this game as the Rockies are coming off of a home series that saw them absolutely light up the scoreboard (so did the Padres). The offensive numbers they have going on over the L7 are through the roof. Arizona isn’t quite as nice as Coors is for hitting but it’s definitely not a pitcher’s park. Definitely recommend getting offensive pieces of this game.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Ian Desmond, Daniel Murphy
GPP Note: COL is striking out at under a 24% rate against RHP.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Nick Ahmed, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: ARI is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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