Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. I normally give a quick glimpse of the top three pitchers in this report, but I’m going to leave that for VIP members for this slate, instead, I’ll break down some guys in interesting spots.
- Shane Bieber – Bieber is in a great spot against the Detroit Tigers here and has already faced them once this season. In this matchup, Bieber scored 29.4 Draftkings points. I would expect him to go out there and do something similar here, I love Bieber in this spot.
- Jimmy Nelson – I’m hoping people see Nelson’s first game back and immediately cross him off here. When Nelson is right he has ace-level stuff and will be a guy who is over $10k on Draftkings by the end of the year if he stays healthy. In a massive pitcher park against a bad offense, I will have a lot of interest here.
- German Marquez – Marquez is my GPP special of the day. As I write this the Rockies and Padres are tied at 11 in the 11th inning, so it’s safe to say the bullpens got burned tonight. This means Marquez will likely be asked to go an extra inning or two. The Padres strikeout at a 27% rate which is extremely high when it comes to league standards. In one game against the Padres this season Marquez scored 20 Draftkings points, this game was also at home, so it’s something to keep in mind.
Full Count Breakdown:
Los Angeles Angels (+175) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-191)
This game isn’t on any of the slates, as it is the stand alone early game. Make sure to check out the Coaching Notes/Player Picks for a deep dive into this game if you plan on playing the showdown slate! Charlie Morton is having a fantastic year and I expect that to continue in this matchup. The Angels lineup really isn’t all it’s cracked up to be outside of Mike Trout and the recently hot Shohei Ohtani. On the other side, the Rays are very playable here with an implied run total of 4.7 runs. Jose Suarez feels like a guy who won’t necessarily get rocked, but you can expect him to give up a lot of hits and walks on his way to 4 ER over 5 innings:
LAA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mike Trout
GPP Note: I don’t really want to be targeting Charlie Morton
TBR 5-star plays: Tommy Pham, Avasail Garcia
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: The Rays side is the better side for bats and pitching
Boston Red Sox (-288) @ Baltimore Orioles (+261)
Chris Sale gets an amazing matchup here and one where he should be pretty highly owned. I have been paying down for pitching recently and it has worked well, but this may be a spot where you just suck it up and eat the chalk here. Sale has an elite 35.4% strikeout rate on the season to go along with the O’s 23.5% k rate as a team. Dylan Bundy actually hasn’t been bad as of late, but it’s hard to trust him in a small ballpark against one of the best offenses in the league. I stacked up the Red Sox last night, and I’m not afraid to go right back to the well here.
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Michael Chavis, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: The Red Sox are a top stack on the early slate
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: You don’t need to be playing Orioles against Chris Sale
Milwaukee Brewers (+102) @ San Francisco Giants (-110)
Jimmy Nelson’s first game back from a long IL stint was not kind to him, but when this guy gets going he has legit ace stuff. I hope people are scared off by that last game because I’ll go right back to him here in a big ballpark. The Brewers offense is almost always in play even against good pitchers such as Madison Bumgarner. With that said, you can certainly look at Bumgarner as an SP2 option here.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Ryan Braun, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: GPP stack only, otherwise one-offs
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I haven’t built any lineups yet, but I would expect to have a lot of Jimmy Nelson in this spot.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+196) @ Washington Nationals (-214)
Stephen Strasburg will take the hill for the Nats here in a nice matchup with the Dbacks. The Dbacks strikeout less than I would like from a team, but Strasburg’s 30% strikeout rate can make up for that. With that said, he’s priced kind of awkward, I would rather either find the extra money for Sale or go down to Bieber against the Tigers. The Nationals are one of the best stacks on this slate with an implied run total of 5.8 runs. Taylor Clarke has a 5.25 xFIP on the season and is someone I want to have exposure against.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I don’t know that I’ll fall on a lot of Strasburg, but I certainly won’t be stacking against him
WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner
4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Victor Robles
GPP Note: I love the Nats here
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Toronto Blue Jays (+199) @ Houston Astros (-218)
Framber Valdez is a good pitcher who has recently been called into the starting rotation. Against a Blue Jays team that isn’t all that scary, I don’t mind getting some Valdez here. The Astros had a big night last night and I think they could be in for another tonight against Clayton Richard who gave up 7 ER in his last outing. By the way, Yordan Alvarez is #Good.
TOR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk, Eric Sogard, Vlad Guerrero
GPP Note: This team is full of decent one-off options, but not a team I will be stacking on this slate
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Robinson Chirinos
GPP Note: The Astros stack is very much in play here
Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers
I love me some Shane Bieber here. I briefly touched on what I will be doing in this pricing tier when talking about Strasburg. But Bieber has already pitched against these Tigers this season and scored 29.4 Draftkings points over 7 innings pitched. The Tigers offense is not good and I believe in Bieber’s talent. The Indians had a big night last night and could be on track for another here in a matchup against Gregory Soto.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Jake Bauers
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Look for the Indians to stay hot here
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I love Shane Bieber here
Pittsburgh Pirates (+124) @ Miami Marlins (-135)
Pablo Lopez has scored at least 22.5 Draftkings points in back to back starts and gets to head home for this one. Lopez scores 18.8 Draftkings points at home this season while averaging just 9 on the road. I won’t be targeting either offense here, as I rarely do in this ballpark. But it’s a good game to see what the 24-year-old Agrazal has.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Starlin Marte, Josh Bell
GPP Note: One-offs only
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Brian Anderson, Starlin Castro
GPP Note: One-offs
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox
It looks like we will have some weather in the area for this game, so be sure to have your eyes on the Weather Station before hitting submit on those lineups. This looks like it will be a bullpen game for the Yanks, but regardless no interest in the White Sox for me even after a big game last night. Reynaldo Lopez is very enticing here and I can already feel myself getting burned by him. With that said, he is a great GPP play in order to jam in some bats.
NYY 5-star plays: Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit
4-star plays: Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: I have some Lopez interest in GPPs, but the Yankees definitely have some pop in this matchup
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: One-offs
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Texas Rangers (+105) @ Cincinnati Reds (-114)
This is another game where we will need to keep an eye on the Weather Station for more clarity. This could change, but right now I’m leaning more toward the pitchers in this game. The Reds offense doesn’t scare me with Mike Minor on the other side, but the Rangers can be dangerous as we saw last night. Tanner Roark is a secondary pitching option for me due to the fact that the Rangers will get him some strikeouts.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Shin-soo Choo, Elvis Andrus
GPP Note: One-offs
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I like Mike Minor more than the Reds offense
St. Louis Cardinals (+135) @ New York Mets (-146)
Noah Syndergaard finally made a good start last time out where he scored 32 Draftkings points. With that said, I think we can actually target the Cardinals right here. Now, take that with a grain of salt, don’t go doing it in cash, but if you’re playing a higher risk GPP or MME’ing don’t be afraid to do so. As for the Mets, I love them against Michael Wacha who has been brutal this year, I’m ignoring his last start which was against the Marlins in Miami.
STL 5-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Matt Carpenter
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: One-offs or GPP stack
NYM 5-star plays: Peter Alonso, Michael Conforto
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Wilson Ramos
GPP Note: I like the Mets here
Kansas City Royals (+211) @ Minnesota Twins (-243)
Yet another game where we need to watch the Weather Station as there is some rain in the area. If we get the all clear Jake Odorizzi stands out as a nice play here and is the most expensive pitcher on Draftkings and trails just Walker Beuhler on FanDuel. The Royals strikeout at a 23.6% rate to go along with the great form that Odorizzi is in. The Twins are in an incredible spot here. They have an implied run total of 5.9 runs, go ahead and stack ’em up.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: One-offs
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, CJ Cron
GPP Note: Love the Twins here
Philadelphia Phillies (-104) @ Atlanta Braves (-104)
Sean Newcomb is a guy that I think is very talented but is struggling through some things right now, whatever it is he isn’t right this season. But he came out and had a very nice game in his last game out. The Phillies offense is a scary one for a pitcher who is struggling and I like them here. Aaron Nola, on the other hand, is in a tough spot here, I don’t mind him, but I don’t think I’ll get there.
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Jay Bruce, Jean Segura
GPP Note: The Phillies should be lower owned than the other popular stacks
ATL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna
GPP Note: One-offs
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San Diego Padres (+153) @ Colorado Rockies (-168)
As I write this these two teams are tied at 11 in the 11th inning, so the bullpens are definitely getting used up here. This feels like good news for the Rockies and bad news for the Padres. The good news for the Rockies is they will likely get more innings from Eric Lauer which is something we can take advantage of. Also, German Marquez will be asked to go an extra inning or two to try and replenish the bullpen if you’re looking for a GPP pitcher I think Marquez is in play.
SDP 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Mini-stacks and one-offs
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, David Dahl, Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Daniel Murphy, Raimel Tapia, Ian Desmond
GPP Note: The Rockies are probably the top stack on the slate if you can find the money for them
Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics
Frankie Montas is one of my favorite pitchers in baseball right now and has really come into his own this season. I will have some interest in him here. I don’t stack in Oakland because of the size of the ballpark and its ability to suppress runs. But, the A’s prices have come down and they get a matchup with Wade LeBlanc, who is also a guy I don’t stack against, so not a lot here for me.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I like Frankie Montas more than the Mariners
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Khris Davis
GPP Note: One-offs
Chicago Cubs (+181) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-197)
Walker Buehler is probably my favorite pitcher on the main slate, but it doesn’t come without risk. We all know how good the Cubs are when they are clicking on all cylinders. I absolutely love the Dodgers here and are right there with the Rockies as the top stack of the slate for me. The Dodgers at home are very dangerous and Darvish likes to walk people and give up home runs, sign me up.
CHC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’m a Walker Buehler fan here
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Max Muncy
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Alex Verdugo,
GPP Note: I love the Dodgers here, right behind the Rockies as the favorite stack on the slate
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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