Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. I normally give a quick glimpse of the top three pitchers in this report, but I’m going to leave that for VIP members for this slate, instead, I’ll break down some guys in interesting spots.
- Chris Paddack – Paddack is the most expensive pitcher on the slate and gets a very nice matchup against the San Francisco Giants. Normally the most expensive pitcher is over $11k on Draftkings, but at just $10.6k he feels much more affordable. The Giants offense is not one to be afraid of, however, there is one thing that I don’t love about Paddack and that is his pitch count. In his last ten starts he has only gone over 90 pitches three times, which makes it tough for him to fight through tough innings and get deep into the ball game. With that said, the Giants have a massive pitchers park and have an implied run total of under 3.5, so it’s hard not to like the rookie here.
- Freddy Peralta – I’m writing about interesting guys, right? Well, Freddy Peralta’s price is interesting, to say the least. He’s priced at $9.2k on Draftkings and is seeing a massive boost after scoring 31.1 Draftkings points against the Marlins. I will let people chase those points and fully fade Peralta here. As a Brewers fan, there are some huge flaws with this kid, one being that he doesn’t have a third pitch. You won’t get away with that for long until hitters start to figure you out, the Astros are one of my favorite GPP stacks tonight.
- John Means – I have been on Means since he made his first start this season, he is one of the few Orioles pitchers who aren’t complete garbage. The one thing that will really make me love Means here is if we get a lot of lefties in the Blue Jays lineup. The Jays really struggle with the slider and Means throws a slider 37% of the time to left-handed hitters. Even if there are only a few lefties in there, the Jays lineup isn’t something that scares me and Means has been much better at home this season. He is a very interesting value option if you want to spend up at bats.
Full Count Breakdown:
New York Mets (+165) @ New York Yankees (-180)
This is the first game of a doubleheader between these two after last night’s game got PPD. It looks like the first game will be Jason Vargas and Mashiro Tanaka, while the second game will be Zach Wheeler and James Paxton. If you’re playing the showdown slate for this game, be sure to check out our Coach’s Notes/Players Picks for this one. I don’t really want to stack against Tanaka, but it’s a way to set yourself apart from the field on a one-game slate. While the popular strategy will be to stack up the Yanks against Vargas.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Peter Alonso, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: One-offs, or a stack in GPPs to set yourself apart on a small slate
NYY 5-star plays: Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Hicks
GPP Note: Hard not to like the Yankees here
Toronto Blue Jays (-114) @ Baltimore Orioles (+105)
I touched on John Means earlier, so keep an eye out for that Jays lineup and the number of lefties in it. Trent Thorton isn’t someone that really scares me, but he is also a viable SP2 in this matchup with a strikeout happy O’s team.
TOR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk, Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: I like Means more than the Jays, but they have decent power one-offs
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Keon Broxton, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Just one-offs for me
Arizona Diamondbacks (+116) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-126)
The Dbacks scored a boatload of runs last night and will look to stay hot here against Jake Arrieta. They hit about 16 home runs last night, so I don’t think we can count on that again. With that said, Arrieta has given up five home runs over his last two games, so maybe there is something to the Dbacks here. The Phillies will draw Duplantier on the mound and a 4.8 implied run total. I don’t hate the Phillies, I also don’t love them here.
ARI 5-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Jarrod Dyson, David Peralta
GPP Note: Mini-stacks and one-offs
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Jay Bruce
GPP Note: Mini-stacks and one-offs
New York Mets (+161) @ New York Yankees (-175)
This is the second game of the day/night doubleheader. We often get some funky lineups on doubleheader days, so make sure to keep an eye on our Starting Lineups page which is very useful in figuring out who is swinging a hot bat. I like James Paxton a good amount here, he has scored 24.8 Draftkings points at home this year compared to just over 13 on the road.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Peter Alonso
GPP Note: I like Paxton a lot
NYY 5-star plays: Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit
4-star plays: Aaron Hicks
GPP Note: I like them more in the early game, Zach Wheeler is solid
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Cincinnati Reds (+109) @ Cleveland Indians (-117)
This game is all about pitching for me. Trevor Bauer and Luis Castillo are both tournament options with elite ceilings. I won’t have much interest in either offense here.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Derek Dietrich
GPP Note: I like Bauer as a high-upside play
CLE 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Fransico Lindor
GPP Note: I like Castillo as a high-upside play
Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox
Ariel Jurado has actually been pitching well for the Rangers, but you can’t be using him in Fenway against the Red Sox, that’s just burning money. I think both offenses are playable here given the lack of talent on the mounds and the small ballpark.
TEX 5-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Hunter Pence, Shin-soo Choo
4-star plays: Danny Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera
GPP Note: The Rangers are certainly stackable here
BOS 5-star plays: Mooke Betts, JD Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Michael Chavis
GPP Note: They’re one of the best stacks on the slate
Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays
Jalen Beeks will likely be the long reliever here for the Rays, at his price I don’t think we need to go there on this slate. I also don’t love the A’s offense, I respect Beeks. The Rays, on the other hand, are a bit more likable with Fiers on the other side.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Khris Davis, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Some good one-off power
TBR 5-star plays: Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: Brandon Lowe is swinging a very hot bat, I don’t mind a GPP stack here
St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins
Again, a game where I don’t love the pitching. With that said, Dakota Hudson hasn’t pitched terribly and we just saw MICHAEL WACHA of all people shut down this Marlins offense. If you really want to stack up on bats, Hudson makes it possible. I don’t love stacking in Miami, but the Cardinals make sense as a mini-stack at the very least.
STL 5-star plays: Marcell Ozuna
4-star plays: Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: One-offs or a mini-stack
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I will actually have some interest in Dakota Hudson here
Pittsburgh Pirates (+126) @ Atlanta Braves (-136)
I gotta say, I’m a little tilted about the Braves. I stacked them up last night and had very little Ozzie Albies and a whole lot of Josh Donaldson. One of those guys hit two homers, and the other was ejected early in the game. (I had the ladder). Both of these pitchers can be boom-or-bust, but if I had to pick one side, give me the Braves again in hopes they stay hot.
PIT 5-star plays: Starlin Marte, Josh Bell
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: One-offs
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Sneaky GPP stack
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Washinton Nationals (-188) @ Chicago White Sox (+173)
Patrick Corbin will likely be popular here, and for good reason. The Sox have a lot of strikeouts in their lineup and really isn’t one that scares me all that much. The Nationals, on the other hand, would make a lot of sense as a stack.
WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Juan Soto
4-star plays: Howie Kendrick, Adam Eaton
GPP Note: I like the Nats a good deal here
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Love Corbin here as well
Milwaukee Brewers (+107) @ Houston Astros (-115)
I touched on Freddy Peralta earlier, I believe the kid is good if he can develop a third pitch, but he’s just not ready and opposing offenses are taking him on. I love the Astros as a very off the board stack. The Brewers are always stackable.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Mini-stack
HOU 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note:
Seattle Mariners (+169) @ Minnesota Twins (-184)
This is a game that we will have to keep monitoring on the Weather Station, as it looks like there is some inclement weather in the area. If it plays I think you can stack up the Twins here, their offense is lethal and well… Mike Leake is not. I’ll find other teams to stack, you don’t need the Mariners here.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Edwin Encarnacion
GPP Note: One-offs
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, CJ Cron
GPP Note: I like the Twins here if the game has the green light
Detroit Tigers (+115) @ Kansas City Royals (-125)
Both of these teams are bad and have decently high strikeout rates, so if you talk yourself onto Junis or Turnbull I won’t get you off of him. I won’t be using either offense.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Not on this slate
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: One-offs
Chicago Cubs (-126) @ Colorado Rockies (+116)
Sometimes you can make a case for pitching a guy in Coors field, but I’m not touching either of these guys here. Both teams have implied run totals of around 6 runs. What else is there to say here, both offenses are in great spots.
CHC 5-star plays: Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Carlos Gonzalez (value), Wilson Contreras (DK)
GPP Note: One of the top stacks on the slate
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, David Dahl, Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Ian Desmond
GPP Note: One of the top stacks on the slate
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San Diego Padres (-160) @ San Franciso Giants (+147)
The fact that the Padres are favored on the road says one of the following:
- Chris Paddack is really good
- Tyler Beede isn’t ready/bad
- Both
I would tend to say a little of both, but regardless I don’t think I’ll be touching bats here.
SDP 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Deep one-offs
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Chris Paddack will look to shut them out here
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels
Kenta Maeda makes sense as a pitching option here, although the Angels offense has come alive lately. The Dodgers, on the other hand, should have no problem taking care of Felix Pena.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Mini-stacks at the very least
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Tommy La Stella
GPP Note: Mini-stacks and one-offs
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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