Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Steve aka @mutt18 on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
First Things First – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start by looking at the Research Station and find my main targets based on which teams on the slate have the lowest ISO and wOBA’s against that pitcher’s handedness. From there I then go to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. After my initial research, I’d rank my top 3 as of now at:
- Logan Allen – He’s pitching at home, and the Giants are ranked dead last in several categories against LHP’s this year. They have a team ISO of .114 against them and K at a 24.3% rate. Throw in Samardzija’s struggles on the road and he has a good shot at a W here as well.
- Tyler Mahle – The Brewers seem to be broken right now, as they’ve done in their last 3 smash spots. They do K at a high rate of 25.2% to RHP’s. Mahle is pretty home run prone, but on a slate with limited options, he comes in near the top of the list.
- Mike Minor – Normally, Minor would be the #1 option on a slate like this, but the matchup isn’t great here. The Angels don’t strikeout to LHP’s (16.6%) and they are getting fully healthy with Upton back in the heart of this order again. Still, on a limited slate like the one we have here, he’s still one of your best options.
After I get finished looking at pitching, I move on to my hitters. I look for which teams have the highest ISO against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing. ISO stands for Isolated Power and it is defined as:
ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits — and the type of extra-base hit — into account. For example, a player who goes 1-for-5 with a double has an ISO of .200.
Where do we get most of our fantasy points in DFS baseball? Home runs, and if a player has a high ISO it usually correlates very well with extra-base hits and home runs. So the higher a player’s ISO is, the more likely they are to produce hitting for extra bases and home runs, which in turn = more fantasy points! An average ISO is right around .140 and an elite ISO is anything above .250. Teams with the highest ISO’s on the slate tend to score more runs and are in turn more stackable. For more info on how to use ISO to your advantage, check out dabbingpuggle’s Tournament Strategy Guide here!
Full Count Breakdown:
Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays (-130)
Starting Pitchers: Glenn Sparkman vs. Clayton Richard
This game kicks off about six hours before the main slate lock, and will likely only be included if you’re playing in Showdown or the All-Day contests. This should be a hitter friendly game, as both of these pitchers have been pretty bad so far this year, and Sparkman is still due for getting lit up according to his underlying numbers. (.316 BABIP and 5.39 SIERA and 40.8% hard contact rate). How he hasn’t been getting lit up like a Christmas Tree everytime he goes out there is beyond me. This Blue Jays teams profiles well against him, especially their lefty bats. I’m high on Biggio, Smoak, and Sogard here (in that order), #regressioniscoming. On the other side Clayton Richard has been pretty terrible in all aspects as well, as he’s currently 0-4 with a 6.89 ERA. However, the Royals have been pretty bad at hitting lefties this year, as they have a .141 team ISO which ranks 27th in the MLB with a K rate of 24.4%. They are still without Adalberto Mondesi as well, which hurts their lineup even more. I’ll have some interest in one or two Royals bats as one offs, but other than that I’m not touching them. This is actually a decent game for Richard who is pretty cheap everywhere.
KCR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Royals have been been awful against lefties all year long.
TOR 5-star plays: Cavan Biggio (.328 ISO), Justin Smoak (.287 ISO)
4-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Eric Sogard, Rowdy Tellez, Clayton Richard
GPP Note: If you’re playing the all day slate, the Jays are a really good option here, Sparkman is due for regression and it is coming any day now.
Stackability:
Kansas City Royals: 2 Stars
Toronto Blue Jays: 4 Stars
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
Adbert Alzolay vs. Trevor Williams
Alzolay is a nice young prospect for the Cubs, but he’s going to be DraftKings only for me, as his price tag on FanDuel is a bit too much for me considering the guy hasn’t gotten past the 5th inning in his two starts. Pittsburgh exploded in their series against the Brewers, but have quieted down over the past few games. The Pirates are in the bottom 3rd of the league in team ISO vs. RHP’s (.168) but they don’t K very frequently (19.4%). I won’t have many shares of Alzolay but I won’t be stacking against him either. I however will be stacking some Pirates, as given the fact he won’t go too deep into the game, they should get a solid amount of AB’s against the Cubs pen. The Cubbies are an interesting target here, as they have the 7th ranked team ISO in the bigs against RHP’s at .196 and while they K a decent amount (22.9%), the upside is definitely there. Williams also hasn’t been too sharp lately, as he has allowed 11 ERs over his last 11.2 innings. He makes for a contrarian pitching option on this slate though, as he’ll likely be very low-owned and he is pretty cheap. He’s definitely in play for MME.
CHC 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber (.257 ISO), Anthony Rizzo (.282 ISO)
4-star plays: Jason Heyward (So hot right now), Javier Baez
GPP Note: Cubs are striking out at a 22.9% rate to righties, which is middle of the pack. Williams makes for a contrarian pitching option in GPP’s here.
PIT 5-star plays: Josh Bell (.326 ISO vs. RHP’s)
4-star plays: Trevor Williams (GPP only), Colin Moran, Kevin Newman, Corey Dickerson, Melky Cabrera
GPP Note: Alzolay hasn’t gotten out of the 5th inning due to his pitch count, which should give the Pirates a decent amount of at bats against this Cubs bullpen.
Stackability:
Chicago Cubs: 3.5 Stars
Pittsburgh Pirates: 4 Stars
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers: Undecided vs. Ryne Stanek
This game is going to be ugly on both sides, as it appears as it will be a bullpen day from both teams. This really takes both pitching options out of it on an already limited slate. My guess is that Ryan Yarbrough will follow Stanek, and the Orioles actually have some decent success against LHP’s and have been running hot until they ran into Shane Bieber who was on his game. I’ll have some interest in the Orioles bats, specifically their righties if we get word that Yarbrough will follow Stanek. I have some interest in the Rays bats here as well, as the Orioles bullpen isn’t that great. I like the Rays 1-5 here.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Renato Nunez (.283 ISO vs. LHPs), Pedro Severino (.296 ISO vs. LHPs), Trey Mancini (.255 ISO vs. LHPs)
GPP Note: This game is ugly from a fantasy perspective, I’d be okay with fading it all together.
TAM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Yandy Diaz, Avisail Garcia, Tommy Pham, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: Keep an eye on who is starting for the Orioles, as they could be an underrated stack in this spot.
Stackability:
Baltimore Orioles: 3.5 Stars (if we get word that Yarbrough will follow Stanek)
Tampa Bay Rays: 3.5 Stars (keep an eye on who starts for the O’s as I may upgrade them)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Starting Pitchers: Adrian Houser vs. Tyler Mahle
The Brewers seem to be broken right now, as they’ve been in smash spots over the past few games and have disappointed each time. Normally I’d be all over stacking them against Mahle, but I actually like him as a GPP option tomorrow given the small slate. He’s allowing 1.67 HR/9 this year, so I could see one or two of the Brew Crew going deep off of him (cough “Yelich” cough). I will have some stacks as well but I’ll be underweight on them compared to the field. Mahle also shut down a powerful Houston team two starts ago, and the Brewers offense isn’t as good on the road as it is at home. Houser is likely going to be an opener here for the Brew Crew, so he really isn’t fantasy viable as he likely goes 3 innings, absolute maximum. You can just X him out of your player pool in this one. I do have some interest in the Reds bats here, as they hit better against RHP’s, so if they can get to Houser early it can get ugly.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich (.401 ISO vs. RHPs)
4-star plays: Eric Thames, Yasmani Grandal, Ben Gamel (if he starts)
GPP Note: Brewers have been ice cold, but this could be a get right spot for them.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Tyler Mahle, Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: The Reds lefty bats are in play here, they rank 12th in ISO against RHP’s on the year (.183) and should see a good amount of this Brewers bullpen, and aside from Hader, they’re not that intimidating.
STACKABILITY:
Milwaukee Brewers: 3.5 Stars
Cincinnati Reds: 3.5 Stars
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers: Jose Suarez vs. Mike Minor
Mike Minor is looking like the safest option on the slate, but his ceiling is really going to be limited by the fact that the Angels just don’t strikeout that much (16.6% to LHP’s) but they are middle of the pack in team ISO. Mike Trout (.275 ISO against LHP’s) really stands out here, as he loves hitting off of lefties and he’s been heating up. Pujols and newly activated Andrelton Simmons are also pretty good at hitting lefties as well (.258 and .172 ISO’s). I also have some interest in Justin Bour as a value play if he starts. On the other side of the diamond, the Angels have called up the lefty Suarez again, and while he hasn’t been good, this Rangers team really struggles to hit lefties (See Blake Snell’s 12 K’s in 6 IP today). They strikeout at an insane 27.8% rate to LHP’s which will put Suarez in play for me. I will only have a couple shares, but if he can get 7-8 K’s and a QS I’ll be more than happy given how cheap he is on both sites.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Albert Pujols, Justin Bour, Andrelton Simmons, Jose Suarez (GPP only)
GPP Note: The Angels really don’t strikeout at all as evidenced by their 16.6% K rate to LHP’s, this really limits Minor’s ceiling.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willie Calhoun, Elvis Andrus, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Suarez hasn’t been great, but the Rangers do strikeout at an insane 27.8% rate to LHP’s. This puts him in play for me on a slate with limited pitching options.
Stackability:
Los Angeles Angels: 3 Stars
Texas Rangers: 3.5 Stars
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres (-165)
Starting Pitchers: Jeff Samardzija vs. Logan Allen
GIVE ME ALL THE PADRES BATS HERE! Samardzija really struggles away from San Francisco’s friendly confines. He has a 5.18 ERA on the road compared to 3.86 at home. Manny Machado is absolutely on fire as of late, over his last 6 games, he’s hitting .444 with 3 HR’s, he’s my favorite bat on this slate and it’s not really all that close. The fact that this game isn’t until 10P.M. and the Padres are already favored should tell you something. I’ll be stacking the Padres bats for sure in this one. Logan Allen has been solid so far since getting called up, and is getting to face a Giants team that ranks dead last in team ISO against LHP’s (.114) and they strikeout at a 24.3% rate. He actually is my favorite arm on this slate, as Minor doesn’t have a great matchup. I don’t have really any interest in the Giants bats here, except as a hedge stack against Allen.
SFG 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: The Giants rank dead last in team ISO and strikeout at a 24.3% rate to lefties. I’ll only stack Giants to hedge my shares of Logan Allen.
SDP 5-star plays: Logan Allen, Manny Machado
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Franmil Reyes, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: I’ll be stacking Padres bats here, as Samardzija really struggles away from Oracle.
Stackability:
San Francisco Giants: 2 Stars
San Diego Padres: 5 Stars
Make sure to check out the Coaches Notes/Players Picks as they will have this game covered for you in all areas. The pricing is so much different from the main slate that it can be tough to breakdown from a DFS standpoint. With that said, at first glance, I would be attacking the Cardinals offense and hoping to jump on them while the field views them as terrible plays after they haven’t scored many runs over the past week or so.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches. Don’t forget to use promo code MUTT18 for 20% off!
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