BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 12 Location – Greeneville, South Carolina
Thanks for purchasing my UFC Greenville breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in South Carolina. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of money from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to get my 3rd seat this week to max it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $30k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Andre Ewell $8,300 vs Anderson Dos Santos $7,900
Andre Ewell
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 135
Reach: 75”
Gym: Apex MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 47
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +105
Andre Ewell needs to bounce back from his first loss in the UFC. He has fought two pretty big names in Renan Barao & Nathaniel Wood in his two UFC fights. Ewell was dominated in his last fight & his grappling was exposed a bit. He is still a very big, long BW with speed & knockout power. Ewell is a very fast & a powerful striker. He has a nice jab, and a nasty straight-right hand. Ewell is more of a counter striker as well. He likes to try to wait for opponents to strike & come over the top with straight punches. He is good at striking going backwards and can switch stances to create new angles to land shots. He will move backwards, switch stances, drive on his back foot and spring quickly into a straight-left hand. He like to throw head kicks from southpaw after he lands the left hand, and he’s earned a knockout with that combination. He does a great job of countering in the pocket with a shovel hook/uppercut. He does tend to be flat footed & I feel that could play into the hands of Dos Santos. Ewell isn’t in & out & is willing to trade in the pocket. He has good power with 7 KO/TKO’s, and a good chin never being finished by strikes.
Ewell’s grappling is improving, but still a huge hole in his game. He leaves his leg easily available to get single legged, and lets fighters close the distance and take him down with body locks rather easily. He is much harder to takedown when he finds his range, because his punches make it harder to get inside. He will try to lock in guillotines and front chokes to defend takedowns but shows bad IQ. Off his back he is green. He will throw up occasional triangles & has decent get-ups against the cage. He is long & due to that he doesn’t have a terrible guard. He has decent guard retention & recovery, but no get-ups outside of using the cage. Nathaniel Wood was easily able to control him in round 2 of their fight & submitted him in round 3. He was taken down easily with a body lock against the cage, gave his back trying to stand up, and got rear naked choked. For Ewell, he is going to need to control the center & out point Dos Santos. He has the faster hand speed & is longer. He needs to use his stance switching & counter punching, while maintaining his distance to keep him there. He definitely has power & if he can land clean he could knock him out.
Anderson dos Santos
Age: 33
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: Forja V2 MMA School
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0–1
Fight Matrix: 217(FW)
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -125
Anderson dos Santos is looking to get his first UFC victory. He lost a decision to Nad Narimani in his UFC debut, but that was on short notice at 145 lbs. He is now back at 135 & had a full camp for this match. Dos Santos is a dangerous Muay Thai striker. He likes to plant his feet in the center, and wing. He has fast hands and throws all his shots with full power. He throws very little jabs or set ups, instead uses counter hooks, and straight punches. He has a nasty right hook, and a very nice check left hook. His straight-right hand has big power, and he dropped Ricky Simón with it, and choked him out. He has no problem throwing down in the pocket and is calm in a war. He has very fast hand speed & his straights & hooks are dangerous. He will rarely throw kicks, but he will throw the occasional leg kick. He doesn’t move his head much & is an emotional fighter. When he gets hit he wants to get it back & doesn’t have the best defense. Against Andre Ewell, he needs to be able to blend his game & use those times he can goad Ewell into trading with a level change. He can get clipped as he moves into range, but he has a good chin and will continue to press forward. He has great cardio & will constantly force opponents to fight on their back foot. His style will always leave him open to potentially get finished by strikes, but he is a finisher and it makes him dangerous as well. He has 5 KO/TKO’s and will drop and finish fighters also. He has been finished 3 times via KO/TKO himself.
Dos Santos is a good grappler and has good clinch control. He does a good job of using straight punches to close the distance & get in on double legs against the cage. He will dig an underhook and land knees while trying to dump his opponent to one side or take the back while standing as well. He will throw nice, sneaky elbows & punches off the break that can stun fighters. Dos Santos is good on top. He will look to move to the mount & has heavy ground & pound from there. He will get a high guard, has great balance & control in the mount. He will force opponents to give their backs & get the RNC. He has a very good rear naked choke. He will drop opponents & get rear naked chokes such as he did vs Simón. If he can take top position, which I feel he should try to do, I think he will have a big advantage. I don’t think Ewell will be able to get up even if he doesn’t get submitted. He has 11 submissions and has only been submitted one time. I see Dos Santos trying to make this fight ugly, use forward pressure, walk Ewell down, take a shot to give one & look for takedowns. If he can back Ewell up near the cage I think he has a good chance to get a takedown & get a submission or win the round. He can’t allow Ewell space & the time to get his range. He has to start fast & keep the fight at close range.
Ewell is the better striker in this spot, but his biggest weakness is Santos’ strength. Ewell can be put on his back and he only has a 37% takedown defense rate. He has also been submitted 3 times. Dos Santos is a grappler. He is going to look to put Ewell on his back and he is going to try to work towards a submission. He isn’t a great wrestler though so it’s going to come down to if he can land takedowns or not. I am not sure how this fight will play out, but the line looks right to me. I would slightly favor Dos Santos because of the grappling and if he can win two rounds then he should get a decision win. He could also finish with a submission. However, if he isn’t successful with takedowns then I think Ewell likely picks him apart on the feet for 3 rounds. It really is a coin flip for me on who is going to win this fight but I usually side with the grappler over the striker in those cases, so I will take Dos Santos here by submission.
On DraftKings, ADS is my preferred play here. I haven’t started building lineups yet, but this is a fight I will likely have exposure to. As I mention every week, I like to target the first fight of the night. I also like targeting “underdogs” I pick to win. I like the discount we are getting on ADS here and he is the fighter that should be looking for takedowns which we like to see on DraftKings. If I am making 20 or less lineups, then I might stick with ADS only here and fade Ewell. However, if I am making more than 20 I will be playing both sides. This won’t be a fight that I target heavily but if I was making 10 lineups I would guess I would have 1-2 ADS and 0 Ewell. If I was making 150 then maybe 15% ADS and 5% Ewell.
Winner – Anderson Dos Santos via 2nd round Submission
Deron Winn $9,300 vs Eric Spicely $6,900
Deron Winn
Age: 30
Height: 5’5
Weight: 185
Reach: 71”
Gym: AKA
From: California
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 121
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -290
Deron Winn will be making his debut with a ton of fanfare. He is a protégée of Daniel Cormier & has a similar build. He formally had been fighting at 205 & is only 5’5. He is very wide, but quick & athletic. He is now dropping down to 185 lbs where I feel he will still be small, but much better suited than LHW. Winn is an Olympic trial qualifier who has wrestled & competed with some of the best wrestlers in in the world. He is known in the wrestling world for his rivalry with Olympian J’den Cox. Winn has big power in his hands as well & is very short & compact. He can explode in with hooks & overhands generating a lot of power. He has good forward pressure & a nice jab, overhand right. He will throw a nice jab, left hook as well. He will throw overhand right, left hook combos & when he lands he has huge power. He has crumbled a few of his opponents. He is good at making the cage small, and is good at throwing strikes to box them in. He will throw nice left & right hooks, and rear leg head kicks. He can overextend at times with his overhands & leaves himself susceptible to counters. He is still growing & is hittable when he tries to close the distance at times. He will wing shots in the pocket & always has his wrestling to rely on. He does have 4 first round KO/TKO’s in his five wins.
Winn is an elite wrestler. He is very explosive & has excellent double legs against the cage. He will shoot nice singles & doubles in space & has a very fast shot. He can elevate and slam opponents with the double leg. When he gets a takedown into his opponent’s guard he still seems a bit reserved. I have seen him stand up out of opponent’s guards & opponents stand up using their guards. He is much better when he can elevate & land directly into side control. At that point he has solid top control, but he hasn’t shown overly dangerous ground & pound or a submission game. He more leans & wears on opponents tiring them out. He is good at using the front head lock to snap opponents down & control position as they try to stand up. He was able to take Tom Lawlor down, a big 205 lb UFC veteran whenever he tried & I feel he will be able to fall back on that in most fights. He has the cardio to continue the grind for three rounds & I feel at 185 he maybe could even have better cardio. He was able to go three hard rounds in his last fight and win his first 30-27 decision. Coming into this fight training at AKA as the protégée of DC, I see him being able to be in the moment, and fight to his potential. Winn is only 5-0, but he has the potential to be a contender fast in the division if he can grow quickly. Winn, I think should try make the cage small here, cut Spicely off & try to take his head off. He is super explosive & hits hard. He is going to be faster & if he can get it in close quarters I think he will be able to crack that chin of Spicely & potentially put him down.
Eric Spicely
Age: 32
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: Massachusetts
UFC Record: 2-4
Fight Matrix: 61
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +245
Eric Spicely is taking this opportunity on short notice to get back into the UFC. He was cut after a 3-fight losing streak in 2018, but has back to back KO’s, and is getting the call back. Spicely is a smart, tactical fighter who knows his strengths and plays to them. He has a decent jab & needs to try to stay long in this fight. He will throw one-twos down the middle. He has decent leg kicks & round kicks to the body. He comes in there to fight & has finished all his wins. He isn’t fast & struggles to strike while moving backwards. In the pocket, he lacks the power to trade. Spicely is going to have a big experience advantage. Spicely doesn’t hit extremely hard & has 3 KO/TKO’s. He has been finished by strikes 3 times.
Spicely is a great Jiu-Jitsu player, primarily off his back. He will close the distance with a straight-right and then level change and go for singles and doubles. He has no problem pulling guard and will immediately work off his back for submissions and sweeps. Against Thiago Santos he used a nice rubber guard, locked up an omaplata and was able to almost sweep with it. He eventually took Santos’ back and tapped him with a rear naked choke. He got a nice triangle against Alessio Di Chirico. He is going to be comfortable if Winn takes him down & probably has a big Jiu-Jitsu advantage. He has 6 submissions & has been submitted 2 times in his career. He isn’t the most athletic guy and that can be exploited against the higher-level guys in the division. He needs to try to stay long, use his movement, and even pull guard if the striking isn’t going well. I think he will have a big BJJ advantage over Winn & his best chance of winning is by submission.
Spicely is taking this fight on a weeks’ notice and Winn is making his anticipated UFC debut. Winn is a very strong wrestler and trains with Daniel Cormier. He reminds me a lot of Cormier as well and 4 of his 5 wins have come by knockout. Spicely is a BJJ fighter. He isn’t going to stand much of a chance on the feet against most fighters and even with the height and reach advantage, he isn’t going to have much success standing in this matchup. Since the ground is the danger, we might see Winn look to strike and save his wrestling for another fight. I think Spicely’s only path to victory is to lock up a submission from being taken down or if he can just jump on Winn’s back and backpack him and possibly lock up a RNC. I just don’t see that happening and I like Winn a lot in this spot.
Winn is definitely my preferred play here and he has the 2nd highest ITD line on the slate at -110. He is much more likely to get a knockout and he is more likely to land takedowns as well. Spicely is sub or bust here and the only way he scores highly is getting that sub early. Winn has 100+ point upside here but if he doesn’t go for takedowns because he wants to avoid the danger of the sub, then we are relying on a KO for him to score highly. He is a guy I want to get exposure to and I like in all formats, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he scored 70 points in a unanimous decision win. I am not sure how much exposure I want to him yet, but I will likely try to be overweight to the field unless I get the feeling he is the chalk of the card. I don’t see me having any exposure to Spicely though unless I end up loading up on Winn and then I would maybe throw in 1 Spicely hedge lineup. But he will likely be a full fade for me and unless you are picking him to win then I think you can fade him and look for other dogs with more ways to win.
Winner – Deron Winn via 2nd round (T)KO
Ariane Lipski $9,100 vs Molly McCann $7,100
Ariane Lipski
Age: 25
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 24
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -280
Ariane Lipski laid an egg in her first UFC fight. She looked like she got octagon jitters, because she was lost in there. She really struggled with the movement of Calderwood & was stuck in quicksand. In her previous fights she looked much better. She has a great jab, and a nasty right hand. She throws nice one-twos, has nice right hooks & overhand rights. When fighters close the distance, she will throw nasty hook combinations, and knees to the head. She has no problem brawling & letting her hands go in the pocket. She will dig to the body with hooks, and she likes to close the distance with a straight-right hand to the body followed by hook combinations to the head. She has a nasty, counter left hook. She likes to throw a jab, leg kick or a straight-right, leg kick combination. She has fast hands & I feel she will have a speed advantage over McCann. Lipski has nice front & round kicks to the body. She has strong leg kicks. She is in constant forward pressure and does a great job of keeping a heavy volume of shots out there. She doesn’t have the fastest feet & that was really exposed in her last fight. Lipski has 6 KO/TKO’s, a strong chin and good defense only being finished once in her career.
Lipski is well-rounded and an aggressive grappler. In the clinch she will unload with knees to the head & body and dirty boxing combinations. She can overwhelm opponents with her aggressiveness, and that’s an impressive trait. She is opportunistic with her Jiu-Jitsu and ground & pound. She isn’t a super active wrestler, but she will shoot the occasional takedown, and in top position she transitions quickly. She will move to mount, throw hard punches & elbows. She was able to get an armbar after getting bucked out of mount. She will look for leg locks from her back as well. Against JoJo Calderwood she wasn’t able to do much off her back. She was controlled & lost rounds on bottom. She has been fighting 5 round fights & has great cardio. She has two submissions, both which came in two of her last three wins.
Molly McCann
Age: 29
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 62”
Gym: Next Generation MMA LP
From: England
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 34
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +240
Molly McCann is coming off a wild fight. She won a back & forth war against Priscila Cachoeira, in which she broke her orbital. McCann prefers to strike. I would say that she is more technical, but slower, and at a power disadvantage. She definitely throws a larger variety of shots. She has a decent jab, and good straight-right hand. She will throw a lot of feints & sets her shots up well. She has good left hook, straight-right hand combinations. She will throw a jab, overhand right, left hook. She likes throwing rear uppercut left hooks. She will throw fade away left hooks. She attacks the body with straight punches & hooks. She walks opponents down, keeps heavy pressure & unloads with longer punching combinations when she’s against the cage. She is hittable herself & not a great athlete. When she wings her overhand or hook, she cannot move her head and gets caught with straight counter punches. She will fake the lead hand and come back with straight-right hands. She will throw front kicks to the body to close the distance. She will mix in elbows and knees to the body. She can mix in some spinning attacks like spinning back kicks and fists. She is brash, confident and likes to talk in her fights to try to goad her opponents into a brawl. She has ok head movement at times on the outside, but when she throws she keeps her head right in center line. She does a decent job of cutting of the cage and not chasing while staying far enough away to deny the clinch attempts. She has ok power in both hands and can hurt opponents with her punches. I don’t know believe she has enough power to stop Lipski. She has 4 KO/TKO’s and is durable never being finished.
Molly McCann is definitely working to improve her game. She showed much improved grappling in her last fight. In her first fight in the UFC she was embarrassed. She was taken down, gave up her back & was choked unconscious in her home country. That seemed to light a fire under her to really improve that area of her game. She showed a nice single leg takedown against Cachoeira & almost found the submission. She is very aggressive & has hard ground & pound. In this fight she may try to mix it up & copy the Calderwood game plan. McCann is a pitbull & she will be ready to go in there & go to war. She will never back down & she doesn’t tap out as we saw. She will fight to the end. She has one loss via submission & has no submissions herself.
I was confused by this fight. McCann suffered a broken orbital in a fight just 3 months ago and now she is back in there already against a better striker than her last opponent. She did win her last fight, but this seems like too soon to be coming back to me. I think Lipski is the much more talented striker between the two and they are both mainly strikers. McCann is the tougher fighter though and will be the one putting her head down and moving forward with strikes. Lipski will look to stay on the outside and win with technique. I think McCann could also win with takedowns if she can keep this fight close on the feet. I don’t see any submissions happening in this fight, but if McCann can land takedowns late in rounds and work some ground and pound then she could steal those rounds. She was obviously medically cleared for this fight as well so maybe the broken orbital won’t be an issue at all here. I do think Lipski is going to land some hard shots on it though, so she could put her away with a TKO if she can get enough accumulated damage on her. She could also win a 15-minute striking battle. I think this betting line is way off though and that is what is making me want to pick McCann here. If this was a PK betting line, then I would just take Lipski, but I don’t think she deserves that line after her underwhelming debut performance. I will say this is a dog or pass fight and I am going to pick McCann as my winner because of the value and I am going to take a 1u shot on her at +240. This is purely a shot at the number though and not a confident pick at all.
At $9.1k I think Lipski is going to be priced out of my player pool. Especially if I make 20 or less. She is going to need to rack up a lot of strikes here but most likely a finish to end up on the optimal lineup. I would rather just take Meatball here at $7.1k because I would be surprised if she won and didn’t pay that off. She should be the one looking to land takedowns and she should be the one looking to brawl and throw more volume. Lipski should try to stay on the outside and be the more technical striker, so I would rather just pay up for the other fighters in the $9k range. I think Meatball is playable in all formats, but I don’t see me having much exposure to her. I will likely have some stars and scrubs GPP lineups that involve her, but I am not starting any lineups with her. I think she has a decent floor, so I like her as a cash punt but not even sure if I will go there. I am ok with punting with even cheaper fighters so even though I am picking her to win I am not confident enough investing much money in her. Especially after that broken orbital bone 3-months ago. Dog or pass but mostly pass for me.
Winner – Molly McCann via Split Decision
Jairzinho Rozenstruik $9,000 vs Allen Crowder $7,200
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Age: 31
Height: 6’4
Weight: 241
Reach: 78”
Gym: Fighting Titans Suriname
From: Suriname
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 50
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -225
“Bigi boy” Jairzinho Rozenstruik is going to look to build off of his knockout in his UFC debut. He finished Junior Albini in round 2 & is undefeated at 7-0. Jairzinho has good stand up. He has heavy inside, outside leg kicks & a great jab. He has good power in his hands. He will throw a jab, right hook, or a jab, overhand right combination. He has a powerful, counter left hook. He has a nice uppercut, left hook. He is fleet of foot for a big man and can close distance quickly. He will throw occasional head kicks & flying knees. He will throw front kicks to the head as well. He controls the center well & has good shot selection. He landed an uppercut, left hook to a head kick combination that took out Junior Albini in his last fight. Rozenstruik is a bit heavy on his lead leg and has been tagged a few times before. He seems to worry about the takedowns at times & opponents can land hooks & overhands over the top. He has shown a good chin & very good forward pressure. Rozenstruik has 6 KO/TKO’s in his 7 wins.
Rozenstruik’s grappling is questionable. His takedown defense is not good. He was taken down multiple times in round one by Junior Albini. Albini was able to land a single & body lock takedown. Albini was able to pass his guard into side control. He attacked with a kimura & even took the back. Jairzinho was able to turn in & take top position when Albini took his back. Against Kovalev he was taken down in round 2 with a double leg & couldn’t get-up. Kovalev was able to land the takedown directly into side control. Kovalev was able to land some nice elbows & knees to the body. He did deny Kovalev from taking the mount, but he couldn’t stand up. He was controlled the entirety of the round. In round 3 though, he was able to deny a takedown attempt, and land a body lock of his own. Jairzinho looked heavy in top position & postured and rained down some big elbows. In this fight, I see Crowder trying to use a grappling heavy game plan so Jairzinho has to be ready to sprawl. His cardio is good & he can go all three rounds hard. He was able to win round 3 in a 1-1 fight against an undefeated fighter in Andrey Kovalev. Rozenstruik is going to look to keep this on the feet. He has a major advantage on the feet. He is faster, has better foot speed & more variety in his striking. He also has the ability to explode & close the show with one flurry like he did in his last fight. Rozenstruik also has solid cardio himself, paces himself well, and can go three rounds. He needs to stay off his back, cut Crowder off and take him out.
Allen Crowder
Age: 29
Height: 6’2
Weight: 152
Reach: 76.5”
Gym: UFC Performance Institute
From: North Carolina
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 130
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +185
Allen Crowder raised his stock in his last match. He had a high-profile fight against Greg Hardy & fared well. He was winning the fights on the score cards and looked like he may have been on his way to finishing Hardy. Hardy landed an illegal knee in round 2 and was disqualified giving Crowder the win. That was Crowders first UFC win. He has trained at the UFC PI for this camp, and says he’s being more of a professional athlete now. People don’t tend to give Crowder much credit or respect, but to me he has been improving. He is a tough guy & is coming in here to win, and not lay down. Crowders striking is not very good. He does try to circle away from the power hand & walk opponents into shots. He has a decent jab & one-two. He throws a lot of inside leg kicks & left hooks. He isn’t bad at slipping punches & returning with the straight-right hand or left hook. He just isn’t a great athlete. He has slow feet, and his hand speed isn’t good. He holds his hands low & slips well like I said, but when he’s tagged he can get hurt. At HW it’s hard to fight with that style because only one shot can turn your lights out. He does have a good chin in my opinion. He took Greg Hardy’s biggest shots & was trying to goad him into a war. He was knocked out by Justin Willis in his UFC debut & has 3 KO/TKO losses. He has 5 KO/TKO’s himself, but he isn’t a power puncher.
I see Crowder trying to grapple in this fight. He has a decent single leg in space & body locks against the cage. He is very good at staying on an opponent in a scramble and has great cardio for a HW. He is good in extended scrambles, where he can use his cardio to win them & end up on top. He isn’t very dangerous on top, but he has decent Jiu-Jitsu & control. He likes to get cross body in half guard, and eventually move to the mount or side control. He was able to move to the crucifix position against Greg Hardy, but overall, he didn’t get many damaging shots off. He can get too aggressive trying to transition to dominant positions at times & get reversed. He was reversed a couple of times by Don’Tale Mayes & Greg Hardy was able to shuck him off of his back. He does have faith in his Jiu-Jitsu, if he sees a submission he will go for it. He went for a jumping guillotine against Greg Hardy, and attacked with a triangle in his guard also. He has a nice kimura. Crowder has 3 submissions & has never been submitted himself. Crowder needs to push the pace in this fight. He has to respect Bigi Boys power, but back him up towards the cage & grind. I think that his leg kicks could potentially be useful here, but he has to set them up with his punches or feints. Crowder is the better wrestler & Jiu-Jitsu player. He needs to use his singles against the cage to take Jairzinho down & grind him out. I don’t know if he can hold down Jairzinho early, but if he can continue to stay connected, and make him work, I think he has better cardio. He can’t stay in space & has to be very careful whenever they are striking at range.
Crowder was fed to Greg Hardy in his UFC debut and the UFC was hoping he would lose that fight to boost Hardy’s name. Unfortunately for them, Hardy illegally kneed Crowder and was DQ’d. Now he is getting another shot against another dangerous striker. On the feet, this shouldn’t be close. Rozenstruik is much more skilled and much more dangerous. If this fight stays standing I think it’s a matter of time before he gets a knockout. He is purely a striker though so Crowder’s clear path to victory is with takedowns. Rozenstruik won’t offer much off his back so Crowder could just keep him there and win rounds. Every round does start on the feet though and I don’t think Crowder is very good in general, so I am going to take Rozenstruik by knockout here and I would guess it comes in round 1 or 2.
On DraftKings, Rozenstruik is my preferred play by a good amount. He has the highest ITD line on the card at -130 and he can easily hit 100+ DK points by getting that in round 1. The worry here would be him being on his back in round 1 and scoring zero points during that and then going out and getting a KO in round 2. Or no KO at all. Either of those would take him off the optimal lineup so we need this fight to stay standing and ideally an early KO. I think that is very possible and he will be a core GPP play of mine this week. He isn’t the greatest cash game play though because he could be put on his back and be stuck there and possibly even lose the fight that way. I am OK with him in cash, but I won’t be making that a priority like I will being overweight in GPPs. Crowder is GPP only, but I like other punts more. If he makes my player pool, then he would be a 5% or less type of guy for me.
Winner – Jairzinho Rozenstruik via 1st round (T)KO
Luis Pena $9,500 vs Matt Wiman $6,700
Luis Pena
Age: 25
Height: 6’3
Weight: 155
Reach: 78”
Gym: AKA
From: California
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 213
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -380
Luis Pena is making a quick turn around after a decision victory over Steven Peterson. He is back up at 155 lbs, after missing weight at 145. He is 6’3 and the idea of him making FW was just not smart. I expect him to be better & fight more often at 155 lbs. Pena will be welcoming back Matt Wiman in an odd matchup. Pena looked solid in his last fight, and being young in his career, expect big improvements every time out. Pena is going to be an interesting test for Wiman. When he was fighting it was very rare to see such a long, athletic LW, and Wiman struggles closing distance. He is facing a young fighter who has those intangibles, but still very much to learn in how to put it together. If Pena smokes Wiman that should be an indicator to Wiman, that this come back may be a bad idea. Pena will try to stay long & technical. He is also more of a fighter who likes to touch his opponents with shots and pepper them instead of putting big power in all his shots. He throws a nice jab and good straight-right hand. He will throw hooks to the body as well. He has nice front kicks to the body and head. He has good lead uppercuts. He will throw a jab, uppercut combo. He has step-in knees, will grab the plum and throw a knee to the head. In his last match he landed a few nasty flying knees that really hurt his opponent. Pena is much quicker on his feet & is just a better athlete than Wiman. He is going to have a big reach advantage. As long as he stays technical and doesn’t get drawn into a war he’ll probably piece Wiman up standing. He does give up the center of the cage & needs to be careful when he’s backed past the warning track. I think if he’s going to get clipped, it’s going to be with him against the fence after Wiman fakes a takedown. Pena really doesn’t have big power, but Peterson was rocked and maybe he’s starting to put more into his shots now. He has one career knockout and has never been KO/TKO’d.
Pena is a good grappler. He is grinding day in and day out at AKA one of the best wrestling gyms. He likes to get fighters against the cage, get them thinking about his striking and level change into double legs. He has solid single legs and will drive opponents to the cage. He will control opponents against the cage with double underhooks. He does a good job of using his length to take the back from standing. He has good double legs when he gets his hands clamped, and on top he is only alright. He doesn’t really have great top control or ground & pound. Even when he takes the back, he tends to allow more experienced fighters to turn in or scramble back to their feet. His takedown defense is average but looks to be improving. He is getting better at countering takedowns against the cage with kimuras & guillotines. I feel that will be a huge factor in denying the takedown attempts in this fight. Sometimes he can run out of room in the cage & end up square with his back against the cage & give easy takedowns. He is solid off his back. His length allows him to be very tricky on the ground, and he has fast hips and good sweeps. He was able to sweep Ritchie Smullen and then catch a guillotine choke after rocking him. He has a nice triangle and kimura and has 4 submission finishes. He is coming off his first decision win & showed good cardio. I think Pena needs to try to use his straight punches, uppercuts & front kicks to keep Wiman on the outside. He needs to try to use Wiman’s aggressiveness against him and walk him into shots. He can’t get square against the cage & give up easy takedowns. He should attack with the guillotine to defend the takedown attempts. If he can control the center & make Wiman pay for his wild striking he should cruise to victory.
Matt Wiman
Age: 35
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 67”
Gym: Tulsa Top Team
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 10-4
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 4 Years 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +315
Matt Wiman is making a return after nearly 5 years away from the sport. Wiman was a good fighter in his time. He was 10-5 in 15 UFC fights from 2007-2014. He has beaten names such as Mac Danzing, Paul Sass & Cole Miller, and is the much more experienced fighter. Wiman is extremely aggressive & a grinder. His footwork & movement I don’t really like. He is choppy, slow & really struggles to close the distance. He will wing shots on the feet & shows no fear. He has solid leg kicks. He will wing right & left hooks. He has a heavy overhand right and has big power in his punches. He will try to slip shots & return with left hook, right hook combinations. He will also throw lead elbows & superman punches. When he can get his wrestling going, that’s when his striking becomes better. He will fake level changes & come over the top with punches & elbows. He doesn’t throw any set ups, will overextend & off balance himself with his winging shots. He plods forward with a high guard which leaves him susceptible to body shots as well. He was slow & struggled to close the distance 5 years ago, so now I am a bit worried about his striking. He did have a fairly good chin along with tenaciousness & heart, but he has taken some damage. He has been knocked out twice. He has 4 KO/TKO’s himself.
Matt Wiman is a grinder & a tenacious wrestler. He is average in the clinch. He does have good physicality, and against weaker fighters he can land elbows & knees. He will look for trips & body lock takedowns. His defense in the clinch is not the best. He leaves himself susceptible to elbows & knees. He was knocked out badly by clinch elbows against TJ Grant. He does have a good single leg takedown, but I wouldn’t say he has elite wrestling. He leaves his head in positions to be guillotined & opponents have been able to sprawl & deny takedowns on him. He doesn’t mind being on his back & is very active with submissions. He has nice guillotines, triangles & armbars. He will also attack with omaplatas to sweep to top position. When he does get takedowns, he is very good on top. He has heavy elbows, punches & can bloody opponents up. He will slow cook opponents, beat them up, and pressure pass to dominant positions. He isn’t a big submission threat from top position, preferring G&P. Wiman has 5 career submissions. He has never been submitted. Wiman used to have good cardio, the pressure and pace to break fighters. He left the sport it seemed due to a back injury. I’m not sure what he has been doing in the interim. There is really nothing online in regard to how he is training or where, and what he’s been doing the past 4.5 years. This is a tough fight stylistically for Wiman & he needs to come in improved to win. He has to make this fight ugly, get inside, close the distance with his winging shots & get in on the legs. Pena has shown quit before & if Wiman can get him down, maybe even cut him, he could put doubts in Pena. He has to get at least a couple takedowns to win this fight in my opinion. He does throw with full power & always has that punchers chance. He also brings the element of surprise.
Wiman is coming back to the UFC after taking a 5-year layoff. I thought he was retired but apparently not and now he is coming back at 35 years old. There are just too many unknows with that. I have no idea what he has been doing the last 5 years or what kind of shape he is in. If I knew we were getting the same Wiman from 2014 and before, then I would say this line is off. Pena should still be favored if that was the case but the current -370 has all the unknowns baked into the line and we have to assume that Wiman is going to get worse with age and ring rust. I think Pena likely gets a late TKO in this fight but at that betting line it isn’t somebody I am looking to bet on. If you want to throw him into parlays, I guess that is ok, but I will just be passing altogether here personally for betting.
On DraftKings, I have to say Pena is the preferred play. I think he has a good shot of getting a finish and if we have a diminished Wiman then we could see Pena just dominate and maybe score the highest on the slate. He is in play in all formats, but I am not sure how much of him I will be able to afford. I would like to be overweight but if I need to save a few hundred to move up to an underdog I like more than I am not against moving down from Pena to get it. I also think Wiman is in play as well because of the unknowns. He is the cheapest fighter on the slate, so I think he is fine as a cash punt to help you pay up elsewhere, but he does have a low floor. He could go out there and land takedowns though and maybe even lock up a submission. Who knows? I have no idea what to expect here so I am interested in the unknowns on DK and I will likely be rostering both guys.
Winner – Luis Pena via 1st round (T)KO
Ashley Yoder $8,200 vs Syuri Kondo $8,000
Ashley Yoder
Age: 31
Height: 5’7
Weight: 115
Reach: 66.5”
Gym: Team Quest
From: California
UFC Record: 1-3
Fight Matrix: 45
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -120
Ashley Yoder is returning after a decision victory over Amanda Bobby Cooper. She is a veteran now with this being her 5th fight & all of them have been pretty close. Her last two fights have been split decisions with Yoder winning one & losing one. Yoder is long and tries to accentuate it, but she isn’t a great striker and a bit flat footed. She will throw a nice one-two. Her straight-right hand looked improved and less loopy against Dern. She has a nice fade away, overhand right moving backwards. She has a good overhand left & left hook. She will throw front kicks to the body, and decent inside leg kicks. She is aggressive and will press forward, eat shots and continue to throw. She has a very good chin and will walk through shots undeterred. She doesn’t have great speed, and she can get hit clean with faster, tighter punches. In this fight, I think she has the faster hand speed though & hits harder. Yoder has zero KO/TKO’s & never has been finished by strikes.
Yoder is a strong grappler & good Jiu-Jitsu player. She likes to get a single collar clinch when opponents are pressuring and has a solid head & arm throw. Also, she will try to get in the clinch and grind for takedowns against the cage. She will dive on submissions, both standing and, on the ground, and is very aggressive trying to take the back. Her fight IQ isn’t good, and she will try to take the back too hastily at times and end up on bottom. On her back, she is comfortable as well and will throw up subs but can be grinded out. She is very good at creating scrambles & ending up in top position. She has a good mount & will rain down decent shots. She has great cardio and is very scrappy. All three of her UFC fights have been close and she isn’t an easy out. She is very durable, mentally tough and does not quit. I see Yoder trying to counter with her one-two & overhand right. I think Yoder definitely hits harder & has faster hands. I also think she has faster feet and controls distance better. I think she should try to use the clinch when Kondo plods forward & tries to take her down. I think she may be able to take her down with head & arm throws or single legs. If she takes Kondo down I haven’t seen her off her back at all & she could potentially be submitted. Yoder has 4 submissions & has never been submitted. She has good cardio & trains at a great gym at Team Quest.
Syuri Kondo
Age: 30
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 66.5”
Gym: Vos Gym
From: Japan
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +100
Syuri Kondo has lost two straight since winning her UFC debut. She most likely needs a win now to avoid being cut. Kondo had her first 6 fights in Japan going 6-0. She has traveled to two different countries for her last two fights & lost both. This will be her first fight in the United States. Historically, Japanese fighters have had a lot of trouble adapting to fighting in the United States. Kondo is a tough chick & brings the pressure. She doesn’t really cut fighters off, but she chases & will walk them down, constantly throwing volume. If there is one thing you can really give Kondo credit for, it’s her cardio. Her striking isn’t super dangerous or technical. She is very stiff & likes to spam one-twos & front kicks. She has decent leg kicks. She throws spinning attacks in the pocket such as spinning backfists and spinning kicks to the body. She will try to counter in close range with left & right hooks. It looks like to me she jams a lot of her punches by getting too close to her opponents. She doesn’t really extend & I don’t think she has much power. She doesn’t cut off the cage & chases, so she can get tagged getting inside & opponents can angle away. She tries to use a high guard which leaves her susceptible to body shots. She does always come forward even if she’s getting battered. She has no quit. Kondo has one KO/TKO & has been finished once due to a body kick.
Kondo is not a great grappler. She will use punches to close the distance and get the single collar clinch. She has decent knees in that position and will throw short punches to the body and head. She will push fighters against the cage, and land short knees there. She struggles to close distance and get in the clinch at times, and she isn’t very physically strong. I haven’t seen Kondo have to defend many takedowns, or how she is off her back. Yoder is a very good Jiu-Jitsu artist, so it could be tested here. Kondo has no submissions & never has been submitted. Kondo only fights one way & that’s pressuring forward. She is going to want to push the pace, get inside of the looping shots of Yoder & land straight shots down the middle. She needs to throw a lot of volume & try to be the busier fighter.
If this were a kickboxing match, then I would have to favor Kondo. She is the better overall striker and she lands almost 3x as many significant strikes per minute at a higher accuracy. She does absorb a lot of strikes as well though, so it wouldn’t be a blowout and I think Yoder could hang in a striking fight. I do believe Yoder has a significant advantage on the ground though and I think she should look to get the fight to the mat early and often. Yoder looks more and more improved every time she is in the cage and I think she will have success getting this fight to the mat. Yoder is slick on the ground and she can use takedowns to try to lock up a submission or she could use them to help win a judge’s decision. She could also be losing this fight on the feet and then still pull out a submission win late in the fight. I don’t see her wanting to strike a lot here though, so I am going to lean with takedowns getting the job done in this fight and I will say they get it done on the scorecards, but Yoder via submission at +650 is interesting.
On DraftKings, Yoder is the only one I am interested in here. However, she will need to get this fight to the mat to have any kind of real ceiling. We don’t need 100+ points from her here at her salary but if she can get early takedowns then maybe that is in play for her. She will be making my player pool and I think she is in play in all formats. But I would get I have ~20% of her in my lineups so I won’t be making her a core play or anything. Kondo likely won’t make my player pool but she does strike at a high enough rate to pay off her salary in a decision win. I wouldn’t talk you off using her if you wanted to, I just think its Yoder or pass here more with my lineups.
Winner – Ashley Yoder via Unanimous Decision
Kevin Aguilar $8,400 vs Dan Ige $7,800
Kevin Aguilar
Age: 30
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 73”
Gym: Longview MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 23
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: -150
Kevin Aguilar has had a great start to his UFC career. He is 2-0 with two wins over very tough competitors. A win here would earn him a top 15 opportunity in my opinion. Aguilar is a brawler with huge power in his right hand. He is more of a counter puncher & tries to use lateral movement and walk opponents into his punches. He has a very good jab, and decent low, leg kicks. He does a good job of leaping in with nice left hooks. He has a devastating overhand & right hook. He will throw the overhand right at range, and his right hook in the pocket is nasty. He is willing to sit down & trade shots. He will throw straight punches in combination. He has a nice straight-left to a right uppercut combination. He will attack the body with punches very well. He will throw the occasional body or head kick, but he isn’t much of a kicker. He tends to allow himself to get backed up early, gets reads, and by the end of the fight is doing the stalking. In his last fight he was doing a much better job of using footwork to control the center of the cage. He isn’t overly athletic, but he is deceptively fast & his power must always be respected. He will throw punches in bunches in close range to back fighters off. He can also eat big shots & continue to march forward. He is hittable & doesn’t move his head much but can take a shot. He has 10 KO/TKO’s & has only been finished by strikes one time.
Aguilar isn’t a grappler, and he’d prefer this fight to be contested on the feet. He can get backed to the cage, but his power makes opponents hesitant to get inside & he will time nice counter uppercuts to defend level changes. Aguilar also has great underhooks he uses to defend takedowns. Even though he puts himself against the cage, he is always circling & is hard to get ahold of there. He does a great job of denying the clinch entries. He has fought back to back grinders with great wrestling & has not been controlled on the ground one time. He doesn’t go for takedowns himself very much. He will rarely try to get a double or body lock against the cage. When he dropped Rick Glenn, he showed a solid top game. He was able to move to dominant positions, posture and land some shots. He also showed good floating ability as Glenn tried to scramble back to his feet. Aguilar isn’t a submission threat with just one in his career. He has never been submitted. Aguilar is a blood & guts fighter. He’s laser focused & unwavering in his pursuit for victory. His cardio is very good & he can keep the same pace if not pick up the pace over 3 rounds. He is going to want to have the same game plan he did in his last fight. He needs to control the center with jabs, straight punches & lateral movement. His one-two is a piston & his straight-right hand has one shot KO power. He will throw in bunches when opponents try to get inside & times uppercuts very well to counter level changes. He has to be ready defend more blast doubles from space than in his last two fights where he was worried more about defending clinch takedowns. If he can just systematically break down Ige with his boxing, I think the longer the fight goes the more it favors him.
Dan Ige
Age: 27
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 44
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +130
Dan Ige has been looking like a beast. He has won 3 straight UFC fights finishing 2 in less than a minute & 30 seconds. Both of these fighters are extremely intense individuals & this should be a war. I don’t expect Ige to have another quick night’s work. Ige is a solid striker. He likes to slowly plod forward and put pressure on opponents. He has a good jab & decent leg kicks. He likes to use the pressure to draw out shots & counter. He has a very nice counter straight-right hand. He will counter with left hook, straight-right hand combinations as well. He will try to catch opponents with big, winging hooks & overhands. He will counter with big hook & uppercut combinations. He counters with big left hook, right hook, right uppercut combinations. He will throw a left hook to the body to a left or right hook upstairs. He starts very fast early & can overwhelm people in the beginning by just being ready to fight. If a fighter closes the distance recklessly or stands in front of him, he can crack & that’s where he’s most dangerous. Against fighters with good movement who can land & get out, he has issues. Julio Arce was using feints & forward pressure to make Ige go first & then piecing him up on the counter. Ige will wing big shots from way too far out and will just walk into big punches & kicks. Fighters who can stay long, throw straight down the middle & angle are going to most likely beat him. Ige does have a strong chin & is a scrappy Hawaiian. He won’t quit in there, and you will have to put him out. He’s never been finished by strikes. He has 3 KO/TKO’s.
Ige is a tremendous grappler, a strong wrestler with a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He has a crushing top game & is a finisher in top position. He has good double legs, and good body clinch takedowns. He will elevate on double legs & move directly into side control. He moves quickly to the mount, and will take the back and land brutal ground & pound. He does a great job of flattening opponents out & has great control. He can get too over aggressive trying to take the back & get reversed. He also can get to high in the guard & get shucked off. Off of his back he will look to get wrist control & look for triangles. He will attack in his guard. He will try to roll for leg locks. He doesn’t do the best at controlling posture & Jordan Griffin was able to land some big shots from inside his guard. He is good in the scrambles though, and when both fighters were gassed in round 3 he gutted it out. Ige had a very quick rear naked choke in his last match & has 5 career submissions. He landed some huge left hands hurt him took the back & got the finish. He does have questionable cardio especially when he’s forced to stand up. In this fight he needs to get takedowns. I feel the best chance he has to win is a quick finish. Aguilar is a fighter with strong takedown defense who gets stronger as the fight goes on. I feel if he is taken into the deep waters in this fight Aguilar will be the one less for wear. Ige needs to go forward cut the cage off & get in on double legs. If he can get some takedowns, then he could open up punches by faking level changes.
This is an interesting matchup and should be a fun fight. Both guys are solid fighters, but I’d say Aguilar is the better striker and Ige is the better grappler and wrestler. But they both can hang in either department and I am not sure how this fight will play out. I do think Ige has a better chance of hanging on the feet than Aguilar does on the ground, but I do think Aguilar will be landing strikes at the higher rate and landing the harder shots. He is also more likely to get the knockout. If Ige can land takedowns, then he could get a submission or use those to control the fight and win on the scorecards. Aguilar’s takedown defense in his UFC debut was amazing though and he stuffed all 8 of his opponent’s takedowns. So, this fight could play out on the feet for 15-minutes and if that is the case then Aguilar should win. I just think Ige has more ways to win this fight and I don’t see him giving up on takedowns. I think he will be able to get this fight to the ground at times and it could just come down to what the judges award more. The striking or the takedowns. I think this is a 50/50 fight, so I am going to take the underdog here and go with Ige as my pick. It could come from a submission if he wins, but I will take him to win a split decision.
On DraftKings, Ige is my preferred play. He is going to be the fighter looking for takedowns and if he can get them then he could lock up a sub in any round. Even as the underdog, Ige has the higher ITD line of these two and that makes me prefer him even more. I don’t see me having much Aguilar, but he could make a small percentage of my GPP player pool. He will just likely need a knockout to finish on the 1st place lineup. Ige could reach the optimal lineup with a decision win because he could rack up multiple takedowns. I think he is in play for cash as well, but I probably prefer him more for GPPs. If I was making 20 lineups I would guess Ige makes 5-6 and Aguilar makes 1. Something along those lines. I would guess that puts me overweight to the field on Ige and under on Aguilar.
Winner – Dan Ige via Split Decision
Kevin Holland $8,800 vs Alessio Di Chirico $7,400
Kevin Holland
Age: 26
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 81”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 45
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -235
Kevin Holland has won 2 fights in a row since losing his UFC debut. His last fight was very sloppy & he almost gave it away. Holland is a dynamic athlete with a great frame for the division. He is much faster & just a better overall fighter than Di Chirico. The problem is his tendency to play around. Eventually, doing that will lead to losses. He does a good job of staying long, has a nice jab, good one-twos, and his straight-right hand is accurate. He has a nice check left hook. He will throw long hooks & slaps as well. He will throw jabs & straight-right hands to the body. He lunges in with a lot of his punches & is fast in & out. He can however leave his chin high with his hands down. He will also lean back at times & use that tall man type defense. He is very good with his kicks. He has nice leg kicks. He will attack with inside/outside leg kicks, and oblique kicks to the knees. He has a very good lead leg. He will throw a lot of lead leg hook kicks to the body & head. He has nice round kicks, and heavy, rear leg front kicks to the body. He will throw a front kick to a straight-right hand combination. He did a great job of targeting the body of John Phillips with front kicks, hurting him multiple times. When he gets pressured, he will open up with jump knees. He will mix in lead elbows in close range. He is very good at keeping a high guard & rolling with shots in close range. He will let his opponents hit his guard & then try to time elbows & shots in between their combos. It is a bit dangerous because he isn’t moving & there is always the chance the right shot slips through the guard and hurts him. Overall, he is excellent at fighting long & is an awkward puzzle to solve. He can allow himself to get backed up against the cage & become more defensive than offensive if an opponent has power. He does have a great chin & will talk to opponents and get confidence off taking their shots. After he gets hit he can get emotional and walk forward with his hands down. He definitely is at his best when he is feinting with the lead leg and using it to set up his punches & going forward himself. He has 5 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Kevin Holland is a good grappler. He is a brown belt under Dean Lister. He has solid body locks, and good G&P. He was able to get two nice double legs in his last match, but that was against a fighter with no grappling. Overall, he doesn’t look to go for takedowns much or to work in the clinch. He will throw the occasional clinch elbow, or knee. He will look to get standing guillotines. He will also go for flying armbars & triangles. On top, he will throw hard punches standing in your guard due to his length and can land elbows. He will look to use his length to pass into dominant positions like the mount or back. He was able to get a rear naked choke in his last fight. He is dangerous with submissions, he has a nasty guillotine, good triangles and leg locks. He will sweep with omaplatas. He will attack with kimuras. He is active on top or off his back. Holland’s takedown defense in his fight against Meerschaert was terrible. He was taken down in the clinch multiple times. He did show the ability to get out of deep submissions & scramble with a submission artist. He was able to take the back several times himself and sweep to top position. It was just frustrating to see his fight IQ. He had a huge advantage on the feet & wouldn’t disengage in the grappling when opportunities were presented. He has 6 submissions & only been submitted one time. Holland is very relaxed in the cage, extremely hard to finish and has great cardio. Holland should try to use lateral movement early, counter & make Di Chirico gun shy by making him miss & proceed to make him pay. Once Di Chirico is hesitant to throw, then he can go forward and start to pick him apart. I think he should look to keep it on the feet & be ready to sprawl. I do think he has better Jiu-Jitsu & may find a sweep or submission, but his biggest edge will be on the feet.
Alessio Di Chirico
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Hard Knocks 365
From: Italy
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 75
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +195
Alessio Di Chirico is returning after nearly a year off. He is coming off a split decision win over Julian Marquez in a war. Di Chirico has won 2 consecutive fights. He has really improved his striking & is much more fluid than he was at the start of his career. He has a pretty snappy jab & good left hook. He is good at circling away from his opponent’s power hand and walking them into shots. He will try to walk opponents into left hooks & left body kicks. He will throw the occasional inside leg kick. He has a nice right hook, left straight combination. He will also throw nice elbows in close range. When he’s going forward, he likes to throw a lot of overhand rights. He really struggles to get inside when forced to be the aggressor. He has slow feet & is a bit stiff. He likes to grab the Muay Thai plum after getting inside with his punches & throwing clinch knees. He knocked out Oluwale Bamgbose with a clinch knee. Overall, I don’t think he has huge power. He doesn’t have the greatest defense. Fighters who can cut him off & make the cage small can land big shots on him. He doesn’t have good enough speed to trade in the pocket with most guys. He was hit & hurt with some big shots against Julian Marquez. Di Chirico has 5 KO/TKO’s and has never been finished by strikes.
Di Chirico is improving as a grappler & had a few takedowns in his last match. He has very good timing on his single leg and cuts the angles well. He will use the single to drive opponents to the fence, transition to a double & slam opponents. He has pretty good drive on his takedowns. His top game is underwhelming. He doesn’t have great control or submission defense. He was put in a tight armbar in his last match. He also leaves his head in places where he can get guillotined. He isn’t great at cementing top position & opponents have been able to scramble back to their feet pretty easily. He seemed to tire in round 3 against Julian Marquez after not being able to hold him down. In this fight, I think he has to wrestle, and be able to control Holland on the mat. He had to have seen Holland’s last fight where he complained about fighting wrestlers and could not stop a takedown. Di Chirico really hasn’t shown heavy ground & pound or a submission game in the UFC. I feel Holland is definitely the better Jiu-Jitsu player but can just be too comfortable on his back. Di Chirico does have 4 submissions pre-UFC and was submitted by Eric Spicely in his lone submission loss. Di Chirico should look to counter & walk Holland into takedowns. He can’t exchange with Holland or open up too much, because he is at a severe speed disadvantage. He has to use his lateral movement to land well timed left hooks & kicks, and eventually duck under for a single leg. If he can get Holland on his back, he needs to just worry about control. Once he cements position, he has to do enough for the ref to let him work, but I think be conservative. Holland is tricky with his Jiu-Jitsu & using a heavy pressure top game is probably Di Chirico’s best chance at victory.
I think Holland is the much more talented fighter here with a higher ceiling in the sport. He is going to have a 7-inch reach advantage here and I think he is more powerful and has the better all-around striking. I also think he is better on the ground. However, takedown defense and fight IQ are not his best attributes and I’ll give Di Chirico the edge in both of those. He also has power in his hands, so he could land a knockout shot, but I think if this fight stays standing then it’s Holland’s fight to lose. I also think Holland could get reversals and maybe a submission of his own if the fight hits the ground, but in his last fight he just accepted takedowns and was lucky to get a win in that one after being taken down a bunch of times. Holland messes around way too much in the cage but the talent is there and if he didn’t mess around I think he would be closer to a -300 favorite here. You just never know what he is going to do and that is what is hard to trust. I am still going to pick him here, but I wouldn’t be super shocked if he makes a bonehead mistake, or multiple, and blew this fight. I think he could get a knockout, sub, or a decision win here. I am going to take him by submission and it could come from him being taken down and reversing it or locking up a guillotine as he is being taken down.
Holland is going to be a core play for me this weekend. I love the price tag at $8.8k and I think he has one of the higher ceilings on the card. He won’t be an all-in guy or anything for me, but I can see him being in half or more of my GPP lineups. I think he is a solid cash game play as well. I don’t think Di Chirico is a bad play, but I don’t see me having much of him. I think a finish is possible from him and I think he can get multiple takedowns. I just don’t want to invest much in him other than hedge lineups. Holland will be a top 3 owned guy for me though and I will be hoping for the finish from him.
Winner – Kevin Holland via 2nd round Submission
Andrea Lee $8,700 vs Montana De La Rosa $7,500
Andrea Lee
Age: 30
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 69.5”
Gym: Gladiators Academy
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -225
Andrea Lee looked impressive in her last match. She had a dominant victory over UFC veteran Ashlee Evans-Smith. She is 2-0 so far in her UFC career & a win here would probably get her a top 15 ranking. These two girls have trained together multiple times & they were kind of forced into this fight. Lee is athletic & hits hard. Lee has a good jab & nice leg kicks. She has a good right hook, left hook combination. She has a nice uppercut/shovel hook she will throw to start combinations. She is good at slipping punches & returning with body punches. She will counter with a lot of left hooks & overhand rights. She has solid round & front kicks to the body. She is good at blocking or catching kicks & returning with her own. She keeps the volume high & is always coming forward. Lee is stiff at times on the feet & can throw unset up kicks. She can be countered due to that, but she has a very good chin. She will continue to press forward. Lee has 2 KO/TKO’s & has never been submitted.
Andrea Lee is a beast for the division & extremely strong. She dominates in the clinch. She has nasty knees to the body & head and can just maneuver these girls around. She will land a lot of trip takedowns, and head & arm throws. She is very good at getting a tight waist, circling to the back & getting suplexes. She has great cardio & wears these girls out in the clinch. She has a very heavy top game. She likes to pressure pass to dominant positions. She likes to get the crucifix from side control & is a great back taker. She has excellent control there, even if she is high on the back she can readjust & flattens most opponents out. She will almost use a full nelson position to flatten opponents out. She is good at transiting from the back position to an armbar. She has big G&P from there & good rear naked chokes. She has strong takedown defense & I don’t see De La Rosa being able to take her down & hold her down consistently. She is very good at bellying down into a single leg when she’s taken down. She will also attack with triangles & armbars in her guard. Lee has 4 submissions & has been submitted one time. Lee is going to need to come forward & bring the pressure. She should throw leg kicks early & often but needs to set them up as well. De La Rosa is heavy on her lead leg & I could see her damaging it. I think she needs to get De La Rosa in the clinch and throw big knees. If she can rough her up & take her down, she will tire her out in my opinion. Nicco Montano was able to control her on the mat, and beat her up, and I think Lee can too.
Montana De La Rosa
Age: 24
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Genesis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 23
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +185
Montana De La Rosa is 3-0 in the UFC. She was also on TUF 26, losing to the eventual winner Nicco Montano. She has 3 finishes in her 3 UFC wins all by submission. De La Rosa is a strong wrestler & experienced fighter. De La Rosa’s striking is much improved. She is long & tries to accentuate her reach by throwing a jab, using head movement, & lateral footwork. She is still a bit flat footed & fighters who are good strikers with takedown defense could give her problems. She will throw nice check left hooks & left hook, right hook combinations in the pocket. She will mix uppercuts in with her hook combinations. She will throw occasional front kicks to the body, which I feel she should do more. She is tough & will take shots to get inside and get in the clinch. She was still coming forward with a crimson mask of blood against Nicco Montano. De La Rosa doesn’t have great power, and never won a fight by KO/TKO. She has been finished by TKO one time against top 15 UFC fighter Cynthia Calvillo.
De La Rosa is a good grappler. She is strong in the clinch and has good body lock takedowns. She will take shots to get in, grab an underhook, then dig her other, and is very physically strong in the clinch. She will use her length to get body lock trips & she has good control against the cage. She will throw knees to the body, elbows to the head & she had a solid Muay Thai plum clinch. She wears fighters out in the clinch & zaps their gas tanks. She will circle to the back from the clinch & go for standing back takes. In this fight, I feel she won’t be able to overpower Lee in the clinch. When she was out muscled on TUF vs Montano it didn’t bode well for her. Montano was able to land some big knees to the body and get several takedowns. She was able to pass De La Rosa’s guard, control her on the mat & landed some nice G&P. She will try to catch guillotines on takedown attempts and has an active guard. I think that she will not be able to do much off her back against Lee though. She struggles with top pressure. She is opportunistic in scrambles for submissions. She was able to survive a deep armbar, transition to the back & get a rear naked choke against Rachael Ostovich. She has earned her last 4 wins all via submission & has 8 submissions overall. She has been submitted one time by Mackenzie Dern. In this fight I think De La Rosa could have success with her jab & straight punches. She has to be sharp & use her footwork to counter Lee. If she can counter Lee’s leg kicks with straight punches & land clean, she can maybe stun her. She also needs to try to time takedowns off kicks. If she takes top position, she may be able to out scramble Lee. I could see her getting a submission as Lee gives her back to try & stand up.
Andrea “KGB” Lee is the rightful favorite here and she should have a big edge on the feet. She is also solid on the ground too though and I think she is probably the better wrester of the two. She should at least be able to stuff most takedowns and keep this fight standing. However, her biggest weakness is being put on her back and De La Rosa is a solid offensive grappler. If De La Rosa can get this fight to the ground, then she could end up locking up a submission. If she has improved her wrestling, then maybe she could even win a grappling-based decision. However, from what I have seen I have to think Lee can keep this fight standing. De La Rosa only lands takedowns at a 22% accuracy and I don’t see this fight being very close in the striking department. I was wanting to like De La Rosa here going into my research, but I think this is a good fight for Lee and the betting line looks about right to me. I thought about picking her to win with a 2nd or 3rd round TKO but I am going to lean with a 30-27 decision instead.
This is a fight that I have a little bit of interest in for both sides but most of my lineups won’t include it. I don’t even really have a preferred play between the two, it will just come down to who fits in the last spot of my lineup type deal. I would guess I have 10-15% of both by the time I am done building. I doubt I will look to go to this fight in cash though, so just GPP only for me.
Winner – Andrea Lee via Unanimous Decision
Bryan Barberena $9,200 vs Randy Brown $7,000
Bryan Barberena
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 5-4
Fight Matrix: 70
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -270
Bryan Barberena upped his stock in his last fight. He lost a fight of the year candidate against Vincente Luque. He was en route to likely winning the fight on the scorecards but was knocked out in the final seconds. Vincente Luque is on an 8-fight winning streak & the dark horse of the division, so for Barberena to push him like that was impressive. He needs to bounce back with a win here though or that will be all for not. He comes in a pretty solid favorite against Randy Brown. Barberena has hard, inside leg kicks, and will throw powerful hooks & overhands. He is all about forward pressure. He wants to load and deliver power shots in the pocket. He has a nasty right hook & it’s very powerful. He dropped Leon Edwards with a hard uppercut & has good timing on it as fighters’ close distance. He will use the jab to create openings for hook combinations along with attacking the body. Barberena will throw occasional body & head kicks, but he’s not an active kicker. Barberena needs to be inside to be effective & knows it. He is a tough & rugged fighter who will walk opponents down, eat big shots to get inside & give one of his own. He will throw nice lead elbows in the pocket also. He keeps a high volume of shots out there, has very quick hands and tight combinations. He will also circle the cage & force opponents to walk to him where he will just trade with them there. He has a great chin & will wear opponents out by staying in their face, taking what they can give and still being there. His last fight with Vincente Luque was epic. He has 10 KO/TKO’s & has only been finished by strikes one time. He has shown a granite chin, but he took a ton of damage in his last match, and it could have been a life changer.
Barberena is a decent grappler, but not great. He has good clinch work against the cage, can reverse position and work from there with short knees and punches. He doesn’t go for many takedowns himself, but if he does, when he’s on top he has good control and got an arm triangle against Sage Northcutt. He has good takedown defense especially against the cage and will land elbows and knees in the clinch while denying the takedowns. He can get taken down, but he never accepts position and always is trying to get back to his feet. He was able to get-up multiple times against Colby Covington, who is a premier wrestler in the UFC. He has good cardio, but he does slow a bit in round 3. Barberena is going to need to make this fight ugly. He is going to have to work off his jab, keep the volume high & pepper opponents. He needs to hand fight to create openings for elbows & short punches in close range. He can’t be backing up in this fight. Brown is faster, longer, and has the cleaner technique & I think he would lose a decision in that type of fight. I think he should attempt takedowns even if he can’t get them to come back up with punches, and potentially even get some top control. I definitely think if this becomes a dog fight Barberena will most likely prevail.
Randy Brown
Age: 28
Height: 6’3
Weight: 170
Reach: 78”
Gym: Budokan Martial Arts
From: Jamaica
UFC Record: 4-3
Fight Matrix: 153
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +230
Randy Brown needs a win badly. He has lost two of his last three fights & a loss here may be the end of his UFC run. He has taken almost a year off after getting knocked out. He was knocked out with hammerfists from the bottom, which I had never seen before. It was almost like a freak finish, but Browns fight IQ isn’t the best. He is a great athlete with a long frame and has the intangibles to be an elite fighter. He just needs to put it all together in the cage on fight night. Brown is a well-rounded fighter with good striking. He has a very nice jab & good one-two. He will throw nice front kicks to the body & fights long. He will throw a nice one-two, left hook & double jab, left hook. He has good hand speed & when he gets his range & opponents on the back foot, he puts combinations together well. He has great knees and kicks. He will throw nice inside and outside leg kicks. He has good head kicks and front kicks to the body. He has a very nice knee to the head that is pretty tricky. When opponents let him start walking them down and getting his range and confidence going he is tough to beat. He’s athletic, fast, long and can keep a high volume of strikes on fighters. He doesn’t do as well fighting off his back foot. He can get backed up close to the cage & stands up tall. He can leave his chin in the air a little bit. He doesn’t get hit too much though & his defense is sound. He has been knocked out one time, in his last fight. That knockout was almost a freak occurrence & I think you have to say he still has a solid chin. He has 5 KO/TKO’s himself.
Brown is an improving grappler. He is good at using his length to his advantage. He has nice clinch control & nice knees to the body and head. He will shoot double legs sometimes from way too far out, but he’s very good at transitioning into body locks. He will use the double leg entry to come up into double underhooks or a tight waist. He will just dump opponents, or even jump on the back from standing. He prefers to keep position over submission. He has good G & P, he will stand over opponents and throw long punches or nice hard elbows. He cut Mickey Gall with an elbow & controlled him for two rounds. He can get caught against the cage and get double legged. He stands a bit high in his stance. He has good takedown defense though. He has heavy hips and nice double underhooks to defend the takedown. He has nice front chokes and will use them to counter takedown attempts. He will make opponents go to their backs to defend them & takes top position. Off his back he will attack with good triangle & armbars, but he is too complacent on the ground, and doesn’t have great get-ups. Both times he’s been finished were on the mat. He is a tough guy and is hard to submit. He trains at Serra BJJ & with the Danaher death squad & I would say he has underrated BJJ. He has been submitted one time & has 3 submissions himself. Brown needs to control the center & fight long. If he can use his kicks and straight punches to go forward and be in & out, he will probably finesse Barberena. He can’t stand flat footed & trade with Barberena, and has to stay on his bike. I think he should look to mix in takedowns & clinch control as well. I have seen Leon Edwards take his back & Brown is good at that. If Brown can make it a technical fight & not a brawl he will have the best chance to win.
Barberena’s last fight was one of the best fights of the year and even in a loss he gained a lot of fans and a lot of respect from bettors. I think that is why we are seeing him as such a high favorite. Without that fight I think this line would have been closer. I do think he is the rightful favorite, but Brown is a live underdog. I think Brown is the better all-around athlete here and has the more skilled striking. Barberena is the tougher fighter though and will likely be throwing the higher volume because he is willing to eat shots to give his own. Brown was also knocked out cold from top position on the ground in his last fight so maybe his chin won’t hold up for 15-minutes here. I do think he will be able to use his 6-inch reach advantage to his advantage though and that could slow down the volume and pace from Barberena. I also think Brown could have success with knees in the clinch and could maybe get a TKO that way. If this was a PK line I would probably lean with Barberena as my pick, but with these odds being so wide I am going to take the underdog here and I think he could get it done with a decision, a submission, or a knockout. I think this will be a very close fight though, so I will say it is a split decision.
This is going to be a fight that is in a lot of my lineups. Both sides of it. Not a stack in cash type fight but both are playable in cash solo and I will have one guy or the other in more than half of my lineups. My preferred play is Brown because he is only $7k and I am picking him to win. However, he doesn’t have the ceiling Barberena does and I think Barberena has one of the highest ceilings on the slate. I would guess I have close to 30-35% of each guy but I would prefer Brown in my cash games as a punt. Not sure that is what will be in my cash, but I have toyed around with lineups involving him. I would rather pay up for the other $9k guys in cash though so Barberena is a GPP only for me personally.
Winner – Randy Brown via Split Decision
John Lineker $8,900 vs Rob Font $7,300
John Lineker
Age: 29
Height: 5’3
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: ATT
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 12-4
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -220
John Lineker is stepping in on short notice here. He had been complaining on social media about not getting fights, so I think he is going to be ready to go. He is coming off a close decision loss to Cory Sandhagen in a back & forth decision. He is still one of the most fun fighters to watch. John Lineker is a vicious knockout artist. He almost solely throws hooks, but he will dig them to the body and the head with both hands and overwhelm you with power and volume. He will throw a one-two to the body or head to hook combinations. He will throw a straight-right to a left hook combination. He always throws the right hook to the body to a left hook combination. He has nice low leg kicks and will throw front kicks to the body & head. He will throw spinning back kicks to the body. He is very good at catching kicks & returning with punches. He has good forward pressure, but he doesn’t always cut the cage off the best. He can strike in both ways, going backwards and trying to draw you into his shots or by walking you down and backing you up against the cage, where he does his best work. When he gets opponents against the cage, he will unload with hooks to the body and head. He will mix uppercuts into those attacks. He has the most knockdowns in UFC history and anyone who has decided to stand and trade with Lineker has lost. He is 12-3 in the UFC with 6 Knockouts, and all three of his losses are due to more wrestling centric game plans. He is still pretty solid at denying takedowns, and only recently was able to be taken down by Dillashaw. He has a legendary chin and eating shots just fires him up to get in a war. He has great cardio and can go hard for 5 rounds. Lineker has 14 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Lineker has good takedown defense & get-ups, and mostly uses his grappling defensively. He will go for singles against the cage & control opponents there. He does a good job of using his leg kicks to sweep the leg & get top position, along with catching kicks to get takedowns. When he does get taken down, he has a decent guillotine from his guard & will look to dig underhooks in half guard to stand up. When he was taken down by TJ Dillashaw, he got a lock down position in half guard, but couldn’t get-up. He was decent at trying to move & create scrambles, he will look for leg locks as well. He was trying to strike off his back & was willingly taking shots while laughing & asking for more. He has an amazing chin but doing that only leads to losing. When he does get top control, he has good ground & pound. He is aggressive & will throw big hammerfists & elbows. He has been submitted 3 times and has 4 himself. There is no mystery on what John Lineker is going to do. He is going to throw hard leg kicks and try to close the distance with his vicious hooks.
Rob Font
Age: 31
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Lauzon MMA
From: Massachussetts
UFC Record: 6-3
Fight Matrix: 17
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +180
Rob Font had one of the best performances of his career in his last match. He had a dominant win over Sergio Pettis. This is a rematch of a fight Lineker won via decision easily, so Font gets to show his progression here. Rob Font is a beast, and a very technical striker himself. He has a great jab that he likes to double & triple up on. He does a good job of skipping in with a jab, straight-right hand, and his straight-right is accurate and powerful. He has a nice, check left hook, right uppercut combination. He has good footwork and does a great job of cutting off the cage & keeping opponents on the back foot. He has nice leg kicks, and front & round kicks to the head & body. He has nasty knees, and great timing on them to counter takedown attempts. He throws a lot of volume and has a good style to win decisions. He can sometimes get too confident, brings his chin high & gets flat footed, leaving him susceptible to counters. He has very good power, and a lot of nasty KO’s in the UFC. He has finished all his UFC wins, and has 4 KO/TKO’s in 5 wins. He has 7 KO/TKO’s overall. He has a good chin, and never been finished.
Font is an improved grappler and tends to try to get opponents down especially in round 1 now and mix it up. He has good double leg takedowns and will use a single to push his opponents to the cage where he has nasty knees and elbows in close. He has good body lock takedowns, and solid single legs. On top, he has strong ground & pound and is always looking to snatch up that neck. He has a very nice guillotine & darce. He will look to take the back also. He can panic wrestle at times when he’s being pressured & that’s how he was submitted by Pedro Munhoz. Font has 4 submissions & one submission loss.
Lineker is stepping up on short notice here but he does already have a win over Font. These two fought three years ago and Lineker bullied him for 3 rounds and won a clear unanimous decision. Font has admitted that he has never felt punches like Lineker’s and he gave up on himself in their first matchup. I do think he has improved but I don’t know that he has improved enough to really change how this fight will play out. I don’t see him getting dominated like he did in their first fight, but I have to favor Lineker here and I think it will be from the same game plan he used in their first fight. This should be a fun fight that takes place on the feet but the only real advantages I can give Font over Lineker are his size and reach. He wasn’t able to use that to his advantage in their first fight, but he will need to figure it out here if he wants to have a shot at winning this fight. He also might shoot for takedowns, but I don’t see him being very successful with them. I think Lineker wins another unanimous decision here from being the guy pushing forward, throwing more volume, and landing the harder shots.
On DraftKings, this isn’t a fight I love. I do think Lineker wins but I don’t see him winning as dominantly as he did in their first fight and he only scored 87 DK points in that fight. That probably won’t put him on the optimal if he does repeat that performance. His $8.9k salary is going to price him out of a lot of my lineups but he will still probably make my pool because he has the power to KO anybody in the division. I think his name will carry some ownership, so I will probably be underweight. I think Font is interesting because maybe he has improved enough to keep this competitive and he is only $7.3k. Any win from him would give him a decent shot at the optimal lineup but I don’t see him having 100+ upside. I think both guys are playable in cash as well. If I was making 10 lineups I would guess I have 1 Lineker and 1-2 Font. That will probably put me underweight on both sides and I will be hoping for a competitive decision.
Winner – John Lineker via Unanimous Decision
Renato Moicano $8,600 vs Chan Sung Jung $7,600
Renato Moicano
Age: 30
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 5-2
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -190
Renato Moicano is getting his first main event opportunity. He suffered a setback in his last match, losing to Jose Aldo by knockout. He needs to win here to prove he’s still a future title challenger. Moicano is an excellent fundamental striker. He works behind a filthy jab, hard inside leg kicks, great footwork & lateral movement. His straight-right hand is nasty, and he sets it up with the jab very well. He has a nice overhand right, left hook. He is very good at fighting in the pocket, he has great parrying & hand fighting along with elite hand speed. He will throw a lot of straight punch combinations, followed by hard body kicks. He does a great job of throwing a jab, sliding back, avoiding the counter and landing a hard, straight-right hand. He has good left uppercut, right hook combinations. He attacks the body well with punches. He has nice head kicks and will throw them at the end of combinations. Moicano isn’t a power striker and relies more on volume. Jeremy Stephens was able to land some good low kicks, and Moicano after he gets clipped hard, he seems to get much more timid and defensive. He has never earned a KO/TKO in his career. He has a good chin and has never been finished by strikes.
Moicano is a black belt, and very good on the ground. He is excellent at striking from the clinch. He has nasty knees to the body & great Muay Thai plum elbows. He has strong body lock takedowns, and showed excellent guard passing against Cub Swanson. He was able to move directly into mount and has heavy top pressure. He has great floating ability, and will quickly take the back, and look for RNC’s. He has good single leg takedowns & reactive double legs. He shot an ill-advised takedown into a guillotine in round 3 against Brian Ortega, because he seemed tired and didn’t like the forward pressure on the feet. He has great takedown defense, but I highly doubt this fight hits the ground unless someone gets dropped. He has 6 submissions and has only been submitted once.
Chan Sung Jung
Age: 32
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: Korean Zombie MMA
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 63
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +165
Korean Zombie is returning after an epic fight with Yair Rodriguez. Zombie was en route to winning a 5-round decision but was knocked out with an upward elbow with 1 second left in the 5th round. I’m sure he wants to get that bad taste out of his mouth, and you never have to be worried if he’s going to come ready to fight. Korean Zombie has a nasty jab and throws it very stiff. Zombie likes to throw wide hooks to close the close the distance and get in a brawl, where he is very dangerous. He likes to counter with straight punches, and he will throw the one-two when fighters close the distance on him. He has nasty uppercuts, and he will throw 4-5 in a row in close range when he sees the opening. He has a strong left hook, and it’s one his more powerful punches. When he stalks opponents to the cage, he likes to throw flying knees and then he unloads with punching combinations to the body and head. He has amazing cardio, he does not get tired, and loves to throw down in the pocket so opponents have to trade with him to back him off. His defense is very bad, and he just really disregards it. He holds his hands low and doesn’t really feint much while throwing dangerous strikes that are easy to counter. He needs to be careful not to get caught with a kick in this fight and get hurt or knocked out. He has only been finished two times via strikes. He has 4 KO/TKO’s, and he is very dangerous especially in a 5-round fight.
Jung is a great grappler, he has a great body lock in the clinch. He also has nice trips in the clinch as well. He is very good at catching kicks and taking fighters down off them. He needs to do that in this fight and try to slow the kicking game of Moicano. On top, Jung has nasty ground & pound elbows. He does a great job of getting posture and raining down blows. His Jiu-Jitsu is incredible, and he is able to transition on top very smoothly while looking for submissions. He has a nasty darce choke, he caught Poirier in their fight. He has gotten a twister as well in the UFC. He is very good off his back and extremely active with triangles and armbars. His takedown defense is awesome, he has a great sprawl and he will circle to the back and try to get to the RNC. He has 8 submission victories himself and has never been submitted.
This is a great fight. Both guys here are coming off knockout losses when they were in the lead. Moicano’s last fight was against Jose Aldo and in round one he landed twice as many shots as Aldo did and he looked great. Then Aldo TKO’d him in round 2. Jung, AKA The Korean Zombie, was clearly winning all 5 rounds of his fight against Yair Rodriguez and then he was brutally knocked out with 1 second left in the fight. One of the craziest knockouts I have ever seen. Now both are looking to get back on track in this main event fight. There aren’t a lot of holes in either of these guys’ games. Both are very well-rounded and are dangerous on the feet and the ground. Moicano doesn’t have any knockouts on his record but he is a great striker, he just doesn’t really have 1-punch KO power. I do think he is the better fighter in all areas in this fight though other than the power. I think he should have the higher output and land at a higher percentage, and he should also have the better defense on the feet as well. I would like to see this fight hit the ground at times, but it could end up being a striking battle. However, I would favor Moicano on the ground as well and I think he is more likely to take it there as well. I do think this will be a fun fight though and should be fairly close as long as it lasts. I just think Moicano is a possible future champion and I think he wins this matchup a lot more than he loses it. I think this will be the Fight of the Night though, but I will take Moicano to win a fairly clear unanimous decision here.
This is an all-in fight and a stack in cash fight for me. Every lineup I make will have somebody from this fight and with their salaries I would be shocked if the winner wasn’t on the $25k lineup. My preferred play is Moicano and he is my favorite play on the slate at $8.6k. He has 5 rounds to work with and I think this should be a fun action-packed fight. Jung is very live though and if he wins it will be a lock that he is on the optimal at his $7.6k price tag. I will probably lean towards a 7/3 ratio personally though and I am probably going to throw Moicano in all 3 of my 3-entry max lineups. I will have Jung in cash though and in my other ~30% of lineups so I think that is a good enough hedge, but my night will likely come down to Moicano needing the win. If you want to go 7/3 in favor of Jung, I think that is fine as well, or even 5/5. I just wouldn’t go all-in on either guy if you are multi-entering with 10 or more lineups.
Winner – Renato Moicano via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t takedown a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
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