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NASCAR Calming the Chaos 5/5/19 – Dover

Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos!  We’re back at a short track this weekend, this time the Monster Mile.  These races are always fun, so hopefully the weather holds out, or NASCAR makes the decision to hold off until Monday before lock.  Either way, keep an eye on the sky, but for now, let’s get to it!

As always, if you haven’t already,  be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it.

Dover International Speedway

Unfortunately I’m pretty short on time this week (thanks, work), so I’m going to skip right to the good stuff this week.

The one thing I want to note here, to make sure it really stands out, is that this is a TERRIBLE track for most of the punts.  Similar to what we see at Phoenix, the slower cars will quickly get lapped and will be stuck in a staggered formation.  In other words, once they’re down, they’re not getting back up, unless some crazy wrecks happen.  Even then, there’s a pretty good chance that they will get knocked out, too.

With that in mind, you can fade a bunch of them in confidence this week.  Those drivers would be LaJoie, Sorenson, Ware, McLeod, and Houff.  I don’t mind taking a few shots with Cassill, as he has the best chance of the group to pay off some, but even he could be faded without much of an argument from me.

Lineup construction/correlation

Because the punts are in such a bad spot this week, we’ll want to go after something more balanced or heavier on the value studs/studs/hybrids.  If you remove the punts, the DS will mostly do this automatically, so you don’t have to stress over that too much.  If you’re handbuilding, well, you know what to do!

Dominators

The race calculator recommends 2-3 dominators on DraftKings and 1-2 on FanDuel.  I would aim for two dominators in all formats on both sites, as I don’t think we’ll see a solo performance here.

I think Chase will lead the first stage, and possibly some more later, but I think there will be somebody else to go along with him.  Him having Byron next to him will really help him out, as will the fact that it will be difficult to pass on this track.  If he loses the lead, it’ll be from his own mistake or from a slow pit stop.

Kyle BuschHarvickKeselowski, and Truex make the best secondary dominators  to go with Chase.  After those four, it’s BowyerLoganoAlmirola, then Kurt.

Notice that I did not list Larson there.  Why?  Well, I think he makes a better primary dominator pivot to Chase.  He showed earlier in the year that if he’s close to the front, he can sneak his way to the lead, and I think he’ll try to do that again today.  If he does, he will probably hold the lead for at least the first stage.  With this in mind, in any lineup where you’re not taking Chase, consider taking Larson as your primary dominator instead.  He can be paired with any of the primary dominators the same.

Studs

There are only two on there this week, and of the two, Jones is my favorite by a large margin.  I think there’s a pretty good chance that he’ll wind up in the winning lineup today, so be sure to get some exposure to him!

Johnson is in a pretty good spot too, so be sure to grab some of him.  You can stack them together if you want, that’s completely fine.  I’d probably go for about half exposure to Johnson that you give Jones.  In other words, if you have Jones at 30% you could take 15% Johnson and be just fine.  If you decide to go heavier on one of them, let it be Jones.

Value studs

Suarez and Buescher are by far my favorite in this group.  I think there’s a very good chance that one of them winds up in the winning lineup, and possibly both.  I would get most of your exposure to those two.

After that it’s Newman/MenardStenhouseDiBenedetto/AustinByron, then Bowman, in that order.  I would have more exposure to the first one, then work your way down.  Of the group, Byron is the only one with any sort of lead lap potential, but don’t count on him leading a ton.

Value

We have a few decent plays here for all formats.  Ty leads the way, followed by McDowell and then Ragan.  They’re all cash safe and the first two offer decent upside in GPP, though I worry about Ragan’s ceiling.

The GPP targets here are really fun though!  I like TifftWallace, and Preece the most, and would have the most exposure to them.  This is one of those tracks where it’s a good time to take shots with them, so don’t be afraid to do it.

Next his Hemric who has a lower ceiling than the others, but who is still in play. Finally, it’s Chastain and LaJoie who you could probably just fade this week.

Punts

Like I mentioned earlier, I don’t like the super punts here, so I would just avoid them.

Stacks

Stacks aren’t looking too hot this week.  Penske is too expensive and starting too high to pay off on DraftKings, though you could try it over on FanDuel.  The other teams are in similar spots, so it’s hard to want to stack them.

One exception could be Hendrick, though it would just be mini-stacks of Chase and Johnson.  You could maybe sprinkle some Byron in with them, but I don’t like Bowman’s chances of doing a whole lot for us today.

Pivots

Today’s focus should be on dominator and value pivots, so I would put your energy there.

Closing thoughts

I’m sorry this one is so late, but hopefully it’s not too late to help you guys win some money.  We still have two hours until lock, so that should be plenty of time to construct some good lineups!

Remember to take advantage of the good pivot options we have today, as there are several.  Play within your means, keep an eye on the weather, and hope we don’t get a crappy race thanks to NASCAR being too stubborn to try and avoid the bad weather.  Good luck!