I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day, you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.

Daily Umpire Impact

We have a 13 game main slate with some weather concerns in STL and COL.

We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”

Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.

Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.

“Hit Mitts”

There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.

“Box Callers”

On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.

The Squeeze

(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)

(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)

ARI@TB Taylor Clarke (R)/Ryne Stanek (R)-Opener

Manny Gonzalez 15.66 K/9 6.80 BB/9 .266 AVG 10.43 R/9

We always want to avoid confirmation bias, but this is a situation where I have to be on board with Rays stacks. Manny Gonzalez loves to squeeze the edges. I’m likely using at least 3 Rays in a majority of all my builds tonight. Whenever we have a first-time starter we need to be aware of the potential blowup from the stress. Clarke is a guy who throws a low of strikes but doesn’t have swing and miss stuff with all four of his offerings. This is dangerous with a really tight zone when he executes and paints the black but doesn’t get the call. A neutral guy is a much better fit for a real strike thrower. Nate Lowe’s combination of contact ability and power make him a top value play for me tonight. Yandy Diaz should be relatively low owned with him. Finish your stacks with Pham and the Brandon Lowe.

KC@HOU Danny Duffy (L)/Collin McHugh (R)

Greg Gibson 16.37 K/9 6.50 BB/9 .251 AVG 9.1 R/9

Fair zone with consistency, play this game exactly as planned.

WSH@MIL Stephen Strasburg (R)/Adrian Houser (R)

CB Bucknor 15.73 K/9 6.12 BB/9 .246 AVG 8.40 R/9

With Bucknor, we are going to have to deal with inconsistency. He will miss strikes and expand on the edges some. Strasburg could be in danger of the squeeze if these Brewers stay within themselves tonight. I’d be very careful with Strasburg and I’d consider the fade against that offense in Milwaukee. The only positive Strasburg has going for him is the Nats’ motivation to stay out of their pen right now. The Brewers should be considered a top contrarian stack with Gamel and Grandal who provide enough value to squeeze in Yelich. This is my favorite 3 man stack to complement a 5 man stack on DK.

TEX@PIT Adrian Sampson (R)/Steven Brault (L)

Hunter Wendelstedt 17.64 K/9 6.95 BB/9 .238 AVG 8.35 R/9

This is a tough spot to endorse these two arms. We have to like the park factors combined with a pitcher’s ump, but this is a clear example of why we don’t just play guys based on umpires. Wendelstedt rewards hitt mitts and expands on all edges. Brault is athletic and he’s a competitor, but these Rangers are too dangerous even against a lefty. Only if you were already high on Sampson or Brault tonight would I consider using them, but I likely won’t deploy them until I build at least 10-20 lineups.

NYM@SD Noah Syndergaard (R)/Cal Quantrill (R)

Bill Miller 17.23 K/9 5.72 BB/9 .248 AVG 9.15 R/9

Miller is a top 5 pitcher’s ump and has one of the widest zones we can find. He also doesn’t mind calling the high strike and is more than fair at the bottom of the zone. This is a nice fit for Thor tonight and I will be over the field on him tonight.

MLB “Daily Umpire Impact” Advice for DFS DraftKings/FanDuel/Yahoo May 7th