I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day, you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.

Daily Umpire Impact

We have a 10 game main slate with some slight weather concerns.

We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”

Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.

Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.

“Hit Mitts”

There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.

“Box Callers”

On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.

The Squeeze

(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)

(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)

TB@BAL Opener-Ryne Stanek (R)/Dylan Bundy (R)

Lance Barrett 16.89 K/9 5.90 BB/9 .245 AVG 8.86 R/9

Barrett has an inconsistent zone, but he slightly favors the right side of the plate and he will give the away strike. I expect there to be multiple missed calls on both sides. Overall, the outcome should be neutral.

OAK@PIT Chris Bassitt (R)/Trevor Williams (R)

Jerry Meals 16.33 K/9 6.69 BB/9 .246 AVG 8.63 R/9

Meals has a tight and inconsistent zone. He doesn’t call the low strike often. This isn’t a great fit for either arm, but the benefits of a pitcher’s park should offset the tighter zone. Bassitt is in play for me tonight.

WAS@PHI Patrick Corbin (L)/Jake Arrieta (R)

Bill Miller 17.23 K/9 5.72 BB/9 .248 AVG 9.15 R/9

Miller is a top 5 pitcher’s ump and has one of the widest zones we can find. He also doesn’t mind calling the high strike and is more than fair at the bottom of the zone. We couldn’t ask for a better fit for Corbin tonight. The biggest concern is the in-game weather risk for SP. If we can eliminate the delay risk I’m going to be way over the field on Corbin tonight and will have some exposure to Arrieta.

NYM@MIL Zack Wheeler (R)/Gio Gonzalez (L)

Angel Hernandez 16.73 K/9 5.9 BB/9 .251 AVG 8.61 R/9

We know exactly what to expect from Angel and that’s inconsistency. He misses strikes in the zone and calls balls away. Expect to hear some chirping early from both sides and don’t be surprised when Counsell gives him an earful at some point and gets tossed. There are some strikeouts to chase here tonight, but it’s a risky play especially since Wheeler’s velocity in his last outing was in that 95-97 mph range and not the 99-100 he was previously touching. I’d rather have a tight and fair zone with consistency than whatever we see tonight from Angel.

SF@CIN Dereck Rodriguez (R)/Tanner Roark (R)

Jordan Baker 15.99 K/9 6.87 BB/9 .259 AVG 9.89 R/9

This isn’t a good fit for either arm. Baker lacks consistency and will squeeze the edges. Consider the Reds again as a top value stack without having a bat over 4.3K on DK. Besides the Astros, we won’t find better raw value on the slate, and I favor the three or four man stack over the full tonight.

BOS@CWS Eduardo Rodriguez (L)/Manny Banuelos (L)

DJ Reyburn 16.88 K/9 6.55 BB/9 .255 AVG 9.27 R/9

Reyburn can get wide on the edges but tends to be inconsistent overall. Play this game exactly as planned.

TOR@TEX Thomas Pannone (L)/Lance Lynn (R)

Bruce Dreckman 16.65 K/9 6.77 BB/9 .244 AVG 9.08 R/9

Dreckman has a fair zone that calls the outside strike but doesn’t give too much up or down. The fair zone and nice hitting weather should play well for the bats tonight.

ARI@COL Luke Weaver (R)/Kyle Freeland (L)

Tripp Gibson 17.44 K/9 6.32 BB/9 .250 AVG 9.23 R/9

Tripp has a wide zone and tends to extend on the edges and is fair up and down. Overall, this is a good fit for Freeland in Coors. Weaver’s lack of fastball control won’t let me take a chance against the Rockies at home.

LAD@SD Rich Hill (L)/Joey Lucchesi (L)

Alan Porter 16.50 K/9 7.1 BB/9 .258 AVG 9.89 R/9

Porter favors the left side of the plate some, but overall he earns his neutral grade. Expect him to be a little wide, but consistent. He’s a good umpire for both lefties tonight.

MLB “Daily Umpire Impact” Advice for DFS DraftKings/FanDuel/Yahoo May 4th