I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day, you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.

Daily Umpire Impact

We have a 13 game main slate with no real weather concerns tonight with KC/STL being called early.

We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”

Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.

Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.

“Hit Mitts”

There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.

“Box Callers”

On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.

The Squeeze

(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)

(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)

NYY@BAL Domingo German (R)/David Hess (R)

Larry Vanover 16.60 K/9 7.18 BB/9 .252 AVG 9.27 R/9

Vanover calls the away strike to both sides of the plate and should grade out as a true neutral ump tonight. Deploy German at the same % you were anticipating.

CWS@HOU Dylan Covey (R)/Justin Verlander (R)

Mark Ripperger 16.94 K/9 5.98 BB/9 .249 AVG 8.76 R/9

Ripperger tends to give the away strike to lefties much more than he does to righties. This should benefit Verlander when facing the 5 ChiSox lefties. Ripperger is pretty fair on the other edges and doesn’t miss many strikes either. Overall, this is a good fit and is a nice confirmation ump for JV if you were planning to eat the chalk here.

SEA@TEX Tommy Milone (L)/Lance Lynn (R)

Andy Fletcher 15.77 K/9 6.8 BB/9 .262 AVG 9.72 R/9

It’s rare that I consider the chalkiest offense on the board for my main lineup, but this spot is hands down the most dangerous fade. Fletcher is a top 5 hitter’s ump, and while he can be inconsistent at times, this should still confirm the Rangers as the top stack on the board. In order to differentiate my lineups, I will try and include some M’s like Vogelbach or some Astros/Yankees as my core plays, but it’s hard not to endorse a game stack here. Three Rangers or M’s in any single lineup will probably be the minimum for me tonight.

PHI@CHC Zach Eflin (R)/Jose Quintana (L)

Hunter Wendelstedt 17.64 K/9 6.95 BB/9 .238 AVG 8.35 R/9

Wendelstedt rewards hitt mitts and expands on all edges. He rarely misses strikes which is one of the main factors in his high K/9 (unlike some umps who expand too much on one side or are inconsistent). This is a good fit for both arms, especially when factoring in the cold weather at Wrigley.

TOR@BOS Eduardo Rodriguez (L)/Marcus Stroman (R)

Alan Porter 16.50 K/9 7.1 BB/9 .258 AVG 9.89 R/9

Porter favors the left side of the plate some, but overall he earns his neutral grade. Expect him to be a little wide, but consistent. He’s a good umpire for both Erod and Stroman tonight if you feel comfortable with the matchups.

WAS@NYM Erick Fedde (R)/Zack Wheeler (R)

Mike Estabrook 17.81 K/9 5.69 BB/9 .238 AVG 8.28 R/9

Estabrook really favors the right side of the plate, especially with RHBs. He will give that away strike on righties as far as 4-6 inches off the plate. With both arms facing over half righties we can expect a boost across the board. The main concern on Wheeler is ownership. After failing as chalk in his last outing against these Nats it’s possible that we see him go underowned. I feel comfortable owning about 20-30% Wheeler tonight and I’m hoping that he doesn’t come in past 15% ownership. On a large slate like this, I’m not comfortable going much heavier than 30% on any single arm, so I’m hoping he doesn’t crack that 20-25% ownership level.

ATL@SF Julio Teheran (R)/Shaun Anderson (R)

Lance Barrett 16.89 K/9 5.9 BB/9 .245 AVG 8.86 R/9

Barrett has an inconsistent zone, but he slightly favors the right side of the plate and he will give the away strike. I expect there to be a few missed calls overall and the outcome should be neutral with a slight edge for arms that already get the park factor upgrade. Teheran should be underowned tonight and it won’t take much exposure to be over the field on him. I plan on having about 15-20% ownership of Julio tonight.

ARI@SD Zack Greinke (R) Matt Strahm (L)

Jerry Meals 16.33 K/9 6.69 BB/9 .246 AVG 8.63 R/9

Meals has a tight and inconsistent zone. He doesn’t call the low strike often. This isn’t a great fit for either arm, but the benefits of a pitcher’s park should offset the tighter zone. Greinke is in play for me tonight.

MLB “Daily Umpire Impact” Advice for DFS DraftKings/FanDuel/Yahoo May 21st