Had a nice night on Monday where I took down the $65 Three EM tourney on FanDuel for 2K! I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day, you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.

Daily Umpire Impact

We have a 7 game main slate with all of the umpires released. There are no real weather concerns tonight.

We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”

Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.

Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.

“Hit Mitts”

There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.

“Box Callers”

On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.

The Squeeze

(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)

(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)

HOU@BOS Corbin Martin (R)/Hector Velazquez (R)

Jeff Nelson 16.28 K/9 6.03 BB/9 .247 AVG 8.81 R/9

Nelson calls a league average number of strikes per game and tends to have a fair zone all the way around. The one area we see a benefit to arms is his expansion of the zone with 3 balls. He keeps guys in the box as much as anyone in the game. We always want to confirm at least a neutral umpire with a high talent/high ceiling arm like Martin. For a young guy with his stuff, we really just want a blue that won’t squeeze a guy who has a shorter leash. If you were reluctant to use Martin in the matchup, then I won’t tell you he’s safe tonight, but if you were already high on him I’d definitely stay there and I plan to be over the field with him in tournaments.

CHC@WAS Jon Lester (L)/Stephen Strasburg (R)

Sam Holbrook 16.32 K/9 6.94 BB/9 .251 AVG 9.17 R/9

Holbrook is inconsistent. I expect missed calls on both sides. He expands the zone sometimes but also misses some strikes. Overall, it should be a wash.

MIL@ATL Chase Anderson (R)/Kevin Gausman (R)

Jeff Kellogg 16.02 K/9 6.96 BB/9 .258 AVG 9.3 R/9

Kellog favors the left side of the plate, but has a tight zone on the other edges. This should be a benefit to the Braves righties who won’t be challenged often inside against Anderson and his career reverse splits (he’s been pretty neutral this year as well). Other than that, I’d play this game straight up with the bats you like from either side as solid contrarian stacks on this type of slate.

PIT@SD Montana DuRapau (R)/Nick Margevicius (L)

DJ Reyburn 16.88 K/9 6.55 BB/9 .255 AVG 9.27 R/9

Reyburn can get wide on the edges but tends to be inconsistent overall. Play this game exactly as planned.

KC@LAA Jakob Junis (R)/Griffin Canning (R)

Chris Guccione 17.36 K/9 6.76 BB/9 .256 AVG 9.47 R/9

Guccione expands at the top of the zone and on the right side of the plate. This is a solid fit for Canning who should actually challenge these Royals with heat at the top of the zone (unlike Harvey who kept wasting 0-2 fastballs that were closer to hitting the bull than the zone). I’m a believer in Canning, and while I would like to see him more to know how he can control the running game against these Royals, I’ll take a shot on him in tournaments, especially if the wind isn’t blowing out too hard closer to game time.

SF@ARI Madison Bumgarner (L)/Zack Godley (R)

Will Little 16.85 K/9 6.58 BB/9 .247 AVG 8.52 R/9

With Little we can expect a larger than average zone, but nothing too extreme. He actually gets a little tight on the left side of the plate. There is a small benefit to the left-handed bats here. Overall, I’d play this game exactly as planned.

MIN@SEA Jose Berrios (R)/Wade LeBlanc (L)

Alfonso Marquez 15.21 K/9 7.08 BB/9 .259 AVG 9.35 R/9

Marquez will give the edges sometimes, but he is very tight up and down. Only elite swing and miss arms can avoid the squeeze from Marquez. Berrios might be able to keep his head above water, but I’m fading both arms tonight and a full game stack is almost always in play with Marquez. The Twins top of the order will be in my core plays tonight, and the bottom will be in my tournament pool. On the other side, consider the one-off power from M’s (especially Vogelbach) as strong tournament options.

MLB “Daily Umpire Impact” Advice for DFS DraftKings/FanDuel/Yahoo May 18th