Had a nice night on Monday where I took down the $65 Three EM tourney on FanDuel for 2K! I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day, you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.

Daily Umpire Impact

We have an 8 game main slate with all of the umpires released. There are no weather concerns tonight.

We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”

Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.

Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.

“Hit Mitts”

There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.

“Box Callers”

On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.

The Squeeze

(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)

(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)

MIL@PHI Gio Gonzalez (L)/Jake Arrieta (R)

Mike Everitt 16.94 K/9 5.98 BB/9 .277 AVG 8.87 R/9

Everitt favors the right side of the plate, but is fair overall. He can get tight on the bottom of the zone at times which doesn’t match up well for Arrieta’s sinker. This is a little better fit for Gio, but the right-handed heavy Phillies lineup makes this a tough spot for him. Overall, I’m leaning towards the Brewers as a contrarian stack and using the Phillies right-handed power.

NYM@WAS Wilmer Font (R)/Patrick Corbin (L)

Cory Blaser 16.42 K/9 5.45 BB/9 .239 AVG 7.78 R/9

Blaser gives the edges, but is inconsistent overall. He earns his neutral grade. Play this game exactly as planned.

HOU@DET Justin Verlander (R)/Gregory Soto (L)

Bruce Dreckman 16.65 K/9 6.77 BB/9 .244 AVG 9.08 R/9

Dreckman may not seem like a great pitcher’s ump at first glance. He grades out as neutral and calls almost exactly the league average number of strikes per game. This is a good fit for Verlander or any ace with his command. One of the best things we can do is confirm a neutral umpire for an elite arm in a great spot. I’ll be over the field on JV tonight.

COL@BOS German Marquez (R)/Eduardo Rodriguez (L)

Sean Barber 16.42 K/9 6.77 BB/9 .257 AVG 9.33 R/9

Barber is the first of five umps on this slate with almost exactly league average K/9. Their tendencies are tougher to pinpoint, but we have other measures that help give us the full picture. Barber calls a wide zone, especially on the right edge. This is a decent fit for Erod when he tries to work away and backdoor his cutter. Overall, I’m not going too heavy on ERod tonight, but if you were already planning on using him, then Barber shouldn’t hurt him tonight.

TB@MIA Ryne Stanek (R) (PLR Beeks)/Jose Urena (R)

Pat Hoberg 16.33 K/9 7.03 BB/9 .256 AVG 9.17 R/9

Hoberg is a young umpire who tends to call 4 or 5 fewer strikes than average per game. His zone is fair overall and he doesn’t mind giving the corners. The main reason for his low strikes per game is that he doesn’t give any generous 3-0 strikes or expand his zone with two strikes. I’m not worried about these numbers overall and I’m still considering Beeks here as a nice option on this slate.

STL@ATL Michael Wacha (R)/Mike Soroka (R)

Sam Holbrook 16.32 K/9 6.94 BB/9 .251 AVG 9.17 R/9

Holbrook is inconsistent. I expect missed calls on both sides. He expands the zone sometimes but also misses some strikes. Overall, it should be a wash.

TEX@KC Mike Minor (L)/Jorge Lopez (R)

Brian O’Nora 16.31 K/9 6.21 BB/9 .244 AVG 8.88 R/9

O’Nora is an interesting guy to breakdown. He actually tends to favor the batter side of the plate. When you watch him call games he is one of the guys who stands much closer to the hitter’s side than the average ump. This tends to let strikes creep inside on both sides of the plate. I don’t see a benefit for either arm though. In fact, I’d be really worried if Lopez tries to get under the hands of the big Texas lefties tonight. Gallo can literally hit balls out on the handle (he did it last year in Texas, missed the barrel completely), so consider using them as a top value stack to complement the chalky Astros tonight.

SD@LAD Matt Strahm (L)/Kenta Maeda (R)

Scott Barry 16.34 K/9 6.2 BB/9 .254 AVG 9.46 R/9

For a neutral K/9 Scott Barry has a very tight zone. He misses strikes. This is the type of zone where I reduce exposure.

MLB “Daily Umpire Impact” Advice for DFS DraftKings/FanDuel/Yahoo May 15th