Early Slate

What’s up y’all? We had an internet issue with our early slate coach so I am stepping in to toss some strategy discussion your way for the sweet looking four gamer! Let’s get to it.

Pitching Targets

Zach Davies is the lead dog for me in the early as he has looked pretty good this season. In fact, he’s allowed 2 ER or less in all 9 starts this year. He is a quality start and win waiting to happen.

Frankie Montas has the upside I am looking for in tournaments and for single entry contests. He has 22 K’s in his last 20.2 IP while allowing just 6 ER in those three starts. The Indians faced him on May 10th and managed to score just 2 ER in 6 innings while striking out 7 times.

Michael Wacha is a great MME target with upside and should be lower-owned due to his game log. Recency bias is something to take advantage of, particularly when max entering contests. Just a few games removed from 18.15 + DK points in 3 of 4 starts, Wacha could surprise against the sluggish Royals lineup.

Jefry Rodriguez does not have high strikeout potential but the Athletics are hot and cold as a lineup. J-Rod held these same Athletics to just 3 ER in 6 innings on May 12th and he got the win bonus in that game, too. He has a low-ceiling though so you’ll want to limit exposure here.

Luis Castillo is of course in play but I prefer him for cash games only. His upside has not looked superior enough to win a slate over an offense that scores 10 runs. Castillo would need 60 + and your stack would have to do well to beat out Davies at 40 points and a great stack. I prefer to actually stack against Castillo today in MME.

Hitting Targets

Tier 1 

Cards – I would target the lefties in the lineup and Paul Dejohn and Jose Martinez, both of whom have solid reverse splits. Keller has been beat up as of late and the Cards can pour on the runs. I think they’ll be slightly less popular than the Rangers and Mariners, too.

Rangers – Recency bias after they let people down last night might lower their ownership a tad (not a ton though), and I think they matchup well against Marco Gonzalez who has slightly worse splits against lefties (he is a lefty, too). While the Rangers have a sub .300 wOBA against lefties, I like their upside if the bats get cooking early.

Tier 2

Mariners – They have plenty of upside against the Rangers “bullpen day”. I love the lefties in this lineup, especially Vogelbach who just keeps hammering home runs (4 in the last 6 games). I’ll target the entire lineup for MME, too.

Athletics – Rodriguez pretty much pitches to contact and we have seen the Athletics do better against guys who don’t strike them out a ton. With as much power as they have, contact pitchers struggle against them. If rolling out an MME file, I am thinking 25-35% is optimal exposure.

Brewers – If we think Luis Castillo is the chalk pitcher for today then we can leverage the fields’ ownership by rolling out Brewers stacks. I love the idea of pairing Brew Crew stacks with chalkier stacks of the Rangers and Cardinals (or even Mariners). They are chalk due to the matchup and upside.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if a winning lineup had Zach Davies + DeJong/Martinez/Carpenter and a 4 man Brewers stack with a one-off from the Rangers.

Fortune favors the bold!
Good luck today, Donuts