Finally back to a regular tour event at Quail Hollow for the Wells Fargo Championship!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year for DFS golf with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!
After the weird team event, the Zurich Classic, and a crazy Euro event the Trophee Hassan II which saw ultimate carnage on all four days, we finally get back to normal tour event with the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow. This won’t last long though because, with the new schedule, the PGA Championship is in TWO weeks! It’s a great time to sign up for all our tools here at DFS Army and get used to using them prior to the big contests for the PGA Championship!
Quail Hollow is the site of Justin Thomas’ PGA championship victory, but the course will play much different in the spring than it did during that magical run two Augusts ago. As we saw last year there are a few different ways to get around this course whether it be with your driver, your irons, or most importantly your putter.
Check out all of our PGA tools, the research station, articles, and coaches notes here!
—-> DFS Army PGA Content <—-
Last week I posted a video breakdown of how I build GPP lineups here DFS Golf GPP Lineup Building Strategies, Check it out for some great insight into how I go about building lineups for MME!
This is always a fun week as we get a tree-lined course that has hosted major championships in the past and a major-esque field with lots of the big names teeing it up in preparation for Bethpage Black and the PGA Championship.
Course Breakdown:
Located in Charlotte, North Carolina, Quail Hollow has hosted the Wells Fargo Championship (previously the Wachovia Championship) every year since 2003, besides 2017 when it hosted the PGA Championship. it’s also the home of the 2021 President’s Cup (with captain Phil Mickelson likely leading the way).
This Par 71 was originally designed by George Cobb, but is really a Tom Fazio classic has he has overseen redesigns in 1997, 2003, and 2016.
At 7,554 yards, Quail Hollow is a real challenge for the shorter hitters on tour, but those who can hit long irons into firm greens can find success here. Peter Malnati who is 145th in Driving Distance this season (288 off the tee) was the 36 hole leader here last year proving there are other ways to do it here than just bomb it and go find it. (he collapsed on the weekend so maybe that’s not a good analogy).
The tree-lined fairways here really force players hands in terms of routing, and while you can just bomb it and go find it, it absolutely has to be in between the tree lines to make sure you have a shot at the green. The rough, while extremely penal in August for the PGA Championship two years ago, is overseeded with Rye at this point which can actually give you flyers, but for all intents and purposes make the rough much easier to play out of.
The Bermuda greens are overseeded with poa and while last year I assumed we would see the Bermuda a bit dormant and not as firm, the Bermuda was out in full force and the greens played very firm. What this means is that a lot of the players’ shots into the greens took a big first bounce. Players who accounted for that were successful. Bermuda putters also showed up big time here last spring with excellent Bermuda putters Jason Day, Nick Watney, and Aaron Wise all topping the leaderboard.
I typically hate to target putting (it’s so variant), but I really think that Bermuda Greens are an angle in this week.
With three of the par 3’s playing over 200 yards, and one playing almost 250 yards, long iron play will be huge here. Not only on the Par 3’s, but players will have lots of long irons into these greens. Being able to scramble when they miss the greens in regulation and make par will be key to making the cut.
Weather looks gorgeous all week. There’s a chance of rain/storms on the weekend but not something we really need to worry about until we get to the showdown slates. There’s not going to be any real draw advantage, which is nice after having to try to guess where it would be the last few weeks.
Overall, looks like a really fun week with a difficult course and a great field. This is a big boy course so if it comes down to it between one player and an another I’m likely weighing driving distance heavier and taking the bomber. With the bottom of the field so weak, it’s important to find some gems down there if you are going to play some of the higher priced players in great spots (Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose) which is what we will do in the next section where we identify the chalk and the best pivots!
Are you using the Domination Station to build lineups? If you are building more than 20 lineups and aren’t using it quit wasting your time! Check out the tutorial to learn how!
–>Domination Station PGA Tutorial <–
Key Stats this Week:
In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the Wells Fargo Championship.
Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and former DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?
Value Tab:
The first thing I look at every week when I open up the RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab is basically a formula that takes our projection for points this week x 1000/their salary. So essentially its points per 1k.
Jason Kokrak at $8700 is a value. If you would have told me that last year I would have spit my drink out and let you know that my H2H’s were open for whatever price you wanted to play for you crazy bastard. Seriously though, he’s a value. He’s made 19 cuts in a row and rates out as the 15th best projected Draftkings scorer in the field. I’ve been the biggest Kokrak doubter for a long time now on the argument that he’s going to return to being Jason Kokrak at some point, but maybe this IS Jason Kokrak. If it is, $8700 is a bargain. His course history isn’t great but it should be and hopefully the new and improved Kokrak will dominate this year.
Tony Finau is a core play for me and while his history isn’t sterling, he has made the cut here in four consecutive years. He’s playing some excellent golf right now (as usual) and he’s due a win, this could be the spot! Rates out as the fourth-best play on the board.
It’s weird that someone who makes this their home course is flying under the radar but that seems to be the case this week with Webb Simpson. Presents a great value here and is someone I love in GPP.
Coming off a MC at the Masters and ruining thousands of lineups I didn’t think many would be on Justin Rose this week but that sterling course history (not counting his MC the year it hosted the PGA) is carrying a lot of weight and he’s trending in as one of the more popular selections this week. I like Rose, but if he’s going to be popular I’ll probably find myself on guys like Rory, Rickie Fowler, and the next guy on this list Hideki Matsuyama.
Deki is looking like the lowest owned player over 10K and not for any particular reason other than people seem to like everyone else more. He’s in a great spot here as he’s excellent from tee to green and has three top 20’s in his last five trips to Quail Hollow. Last year was a bit of an outlier in that he was still dealing with a wrist injury. I like him quite a bit here, especially as a GPP Pivot.
Projected DK Score:
Projected DK Score (formerly Projected Course Score)is one of our best stats. This takes the current course into account. The FP/H averages by each hole type on the course are added up to create a raw per round FP scoring projection. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success.
Rory leading the way here surprises me very little, the man below him though…I’m not quite sure what to make of. Cameron Champ was the flavor of the month last fall, and even this spring a bit but he was on just a ridiculous run of putting that wasn’t sustainable. He ended up taking some time away from the tour with an injury and returned at the RBC to promptly miss the cut. This SHOULD be a good fit for him if he has his game figured out. It’s not really a ‘get right’ course though in that if any part of your game is a bit off you can make a big number quick. Worth a shot in GPP.
Wyndham Clark is one of my favorite plays here as well. He’s a bomber like Champ, but unlike Champ, he’s been playing some great golf. AT $7400 he’s a fantastic value play. The only concern is if his putter goes cold he’s in trouble.
Paul Casey has burned A LOT of bridges this year, but is in a great spot, same for Sungjae Im. Both have smashed this year, and both have crushed dreams with missed cuts. One of the most important rules of DFS is to have a short term memory. Don’t let past losses get in the way of your future winnings.
Long Par 4 Scoring:
With NINE par 4’s measuring over 449 yards, this week scoring on them will be essential. If you score well on longer par 4’s it likely means that you also are pretty good with a long iron in your hand so I like the crossover there too.
A lot of the typical names you would expect to see on here, Rose, McIlroy, Fowler, and Finau but some more surprising ones as well. Julian Etulain is a rookie who has had a really solid start to his year. While the sample size is small, it’s nice to see him pop here and at $6600 is well worth a shot. Similar story for Cameron Davis and Kyoung-Hoon Lee. Both Rookies will small samples but good to see them pop. I’m more inclined to play Lee with his current form being really solid.
Wyndham Clark is turning into a core play for me here. He continues to pop in every stat I look at and every model I make. He bombs it off the tee and the putter is hot right now, particularly on Bermuda.
Henrik Stenson is trending towards single digit ownership and low single digit ownership at that. While the course history here is mixed, I like the way he’s playing right now and this should be a good fit for him with all these long par 4’s that he can hit that 3 wood or hybrid on. Love him as a GPP pivot. I think he’s actually cash viable as well. He’s much more consistent than anyone else in that price range.
SG: Putting – Bermuda
I HATE targetting putting, but despite how difficult the course is, this event has turned a bit into a putting contest over the years. Jason Day won last year essentially on his around the green game and putting alone. He gained a whopping 13.2 strokes short game of his 15.6 strokes gained overall. Eight of the top 10 players last year gained at least 4 strokes putting and only three of the top 20 lost strokes putting.
This isn’t something you should use to make a decision alone, but as part of a process of selecting players, I do think it’s important this week. Putting can flip in a second and if a guy like Jason Day last year doesn’t putt well he likely barely makes the cut based on the rest of his statistics.
What I do like to look for here though is if anyone is a much better putter on Bermuda than their average. Those guys in the top ten would Day, Sam Burns, Michael Thompson, Chez Reavie, Johnson Wagner, Webb Simpson, and Justin Rose.
Wagner is an interesting play at $6700 as he has a home here and while he’s not very long, he can compete on this course when its playing firm and fast (it will).
Peter Malnati is just a really good putter in general so it’s no surprise he pops here, but he’ll be another guy I’m targeting in GPP as he was the 36 hole leader here last year before falling apart on the weekend.
Webb like Wagner has a home here in Charlotte and is a member, playing the course regularly. He’s a much better Bermuda putter and is trending in the right direction after an excellent Masters performance, yet is looking to be around 10% owned or lower. Love him for GPP and Cash. He wins this week at that sort of ownership and you are going to have a great week.
Other key stats to consider: SG: OTT L25, SG: Around the Green, Birdies Gained, Double Bogey Avoidance, SG Par 3
One thing, that puts us at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. If you aren’t using it to build lineups you’re crazy! Check out how it works here! Domination Station PGA Tutorial
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them.
Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?
In this section, each price range’s (Above 9K, 7.5k-9K, and Below 7.5K) Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.
It’s important to remember that just because someone is going to be highly owned, doesn’t mean that they are a bad play, but if we can gain an advantage on the field by fading a player owned by 25% or more, typically that’s the right move. There are typically 156 golfers in an event (though only 134 this week, making it more important to get 6/6) and only 70 and ties make the cut. Essentially you have to look at the ownership of a player and decide if the odds of him missing the cut are equal to or greater than the ownership. If that’s the case then a fade is typically the right play.
In a no-cut event, it takes on a little bit of a different spin. A chalky player at the top of the salary scale you have to ask yourself a few questions. Say he’s going to be 25% owned. “Is he going to win?” and “are the odds of him winning better than 1 in 4, equal to, or less?” If it’s less then I think a fade is in order. The same conversation can be had with chalk at the lower salary range. Will he be in the top half of the field? Will he be in the top 20? Etc.
And now, here my friends, are this weeks’ Chalk Donkeys:
Above 9K Chalk
Rory McIlroy: DK $11,800/FD $12,500
Projected GPP ownership: 24%-27%
It feels weird writing up someone here whose name isn’t Matt Kuchar, but here we are with Chalk Rory.
Anytime a player gets towards this ownership, you can absolutely think about fading them, in fact, game theory would suggest that’s like the best move long term, but are you really going to fade someone with this sort of history here?
2x winner, 6x top 10, one missed cut at Quail Hollow in the last 9 years. Recent form? Four top 6’s and a 21st at the Masters.
There really isn’t a weakness in Rory’s game right now besides maybe his putter, but even that has improved lately. So what do you do with him?
Personally, I don’t feel comfortable this week making a 2x stand on him at this price. It makes roster construction difficult (not impossible but difficult) and you end up missing a lot of good players who have winning upside in that high 8k/9K range because you can’t afford to pair them with Rory.
What I’ll end up doing is just being around field average. If he crushes I’m fine. If he busts, I don’t really gain any leverage, but I’m not dead. It’s kind of a cop-out move, but it’s the safest and the one I feel most comfortable with this week.
Above 9K Pivot:
Webb Simpson: DK $9700/FD $10,800
Projected GPP Ownership: 7% – 10%
Webber is coming off two really solid performances at the RBC Heritage and the Masters and is priced with some of the more popular players like Tony Finau and Paul Casey, which is inherently going to lower his ownership, along with the fact that the pricing this week makes it difficult to pair Webb with one of the studs and build the rest of your lineup. That being said, he’s going to be one of my core targets for balanced builds that focus on that 8k/9k range.
Webb ranks in the top twenty in scoring on 16 of the 18 holes on the course. The only player with a better score than that is Rory, with 17/18. That’s impressive. Webb was chalk here last year 21% ownership because you could sense a win was coming (it did the next week at the Players). He has eerily similar results coming into this event, and they actually may be a bit better.
If this course was wet I would be more apt to fade him, but with it playing dry and firm and it being his home course, I think this is a smash spot for Webb and someone that you can gain a ton of leverage on the field with if he does well.
Other highly owned players (over 15%): Tony Finau, Phil Mickelson, Justin Rose, Paul Casey, Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland
7.5K – 9K Chalk
Aaron Wise: DK $8100/FD $8500
Projected GPP Ownership: 16%-19%
Wise had a second place finish here last year right before his breakthrough win at the Byron Nelson where he got cold-shouldered by his own girlfriend. He was trending towards this type of performance all spring last year and finally popped. After that win, he went on to miss 5 cuts in a row and 10 of the next 22 leading into this event. While he likely has good memories here, and a solid performance at the Masters’ to bank on, his form has been fair to miserable so far this year and by no means should be garnering this much ownership.
The concern here with Wise is that he’s not a great iron player. He bombs it off the tee but doesn’t hit a ton of greens in regulation. He’s able to scramble well which he did here last year en route to that second-place finish but will need to putt much better if he wants to contend again.
The poor iron play has led to missed cuts in four of his eight starts this calendar year. I just don’t get the love for him this week other than his second-place finish. At this price and ownership, he’ll be a full fade for me. Wise at 7.4k which is probably appropriate pricing? I’m all in, but give me guys with higher upside like Keith Mitchell, Luke List, or this next guy that is an excellent low owned pivot.
NOTE: I do like the price on him on FD which seems much more appropriate.
7.5K – 9K Pivot:
Jhonnatan Vegas: DK $8200/FD $9500
Projected GPP Ownership: 5%-8%
JONNY VEGAS baby! This is essentially a direct pivot off the chalky Aaron Wise and a player that is going underowned relative to his skill set in this price range. Form here is a bit mediocre over the years, but he has been absolutely crushing it this year playing excellent golf and should be able to carry some of that momentum into this week and a great performance.
Vegas hasn’t finished lower than 30th since way back at the Genesis Open in February and he’s been getting it done with excellent driving of the golf ball, (he bombs it on average 308 yards), excellent scrambling, and a new and improved putter.
The around the green game is where he has seen big improvements this year and has led to some more consistency. He’s currently ranked 32nd on tour this year in SG: Around the Green, last year he ended the season ranked 146th. That sort of jump is huge, and its a pretty decent sample size of tournaments. He was also 84th in Scrambling last year (making par when missing the green in regulation) and is 21st this year. That big improvement in his short game has led to very consistent results.
Now, Vegas isn’t the type of player that is so consistent you can play him in cash, but he has a ton of upside and this improvement in his short game makes me think that he is set up to contend not only here this week, but in quite a few tournaments this year and wouldn’t be surprised to see him pop off for a win sooner rather than later.
Other highly owned players (over 12%) Byeong Hun-An, Jason Kokrak, Keith Mitchell, Charles Howell III
Check out my Preview Article for my full betting card!
–> UpNorth’s PGA Preview – Wells Fargo Championship <–
Below 7.5K
There is really no one under 7.5K who I think will even push 10% this week so ownership will be very spread out among a lot of guys. Sam Burns and Trey Mullinax might creep over but both a great plays this week. I’m going to highlight a couple of players down here that I think can help take down a GPP for you.
Kyle Stanley: DK $7500/FD $9300
This feels gross as he has been really bad to start the year but he’s on a stretch of two really solid performances in a row, including a 21st at the Masters which is no short course by any means. He’s going to be virtually unowned and has top 20 potential here. He’s always been a solid DK scorer and is a solid par 4 scorer. 13th here last year and has a 6th to his name back in 2013.
Wyndham Clark: DK $7400/FD $8600
As I stated earlier in the article I love me some Wyndham Clark here. He’s almost a core play for me. If he’d have played here in the past, I’d be all over him. Still at this price for a guy that rates out this well for us? Smash him.
Kyoung Hun Lee: DK $7300/FD $8900
KH Lee is another guy with good form coming in who rates out really well. Another rookie so expectations should be tempered a bit but I do like him here. I said in my notes he’s like Sungjae lite. Same sort of player, way less expectation.
Nate Lashley: DK $6200/FD $7900
Prior to two MC’s Lashley was one of the hottest players on tour and the model of consistency. I think he gets that back this week. He’s not super long off the tee but with the course playing firm and fast he’s absolutely in the equation. This thing turns into a bit of a putting contest and he’ll be right in the mix. For how short he is he actually scores well on longer par 5’s due to his excellent long iron play. Super punt in GPP.
Other low owned cheap players I’m interested in: Johnson Wagner, Peter Malnati, Chesson Hadley
GPP Core:
Want to know who is my GPP Core? How bout Taco or Brody’s? Check it out here on our brand new Coaches Notes page.
Final Thoughts:
Time to get back on track after a few rough weeks. Be smart with your bankroll this week and start trying to build for the PGA championship. Milly Maker satellites are popping up and a great way to build up for the upcoming major.
We will have content for you all through the week at DFS Army. Our research station and domination station optimizer will be updated on Tuesday and I will have my full Chalk Donkey article breaking down all the ownership and GPP strategy for our VIP’s on Wednesday afternoon! If you aren’t a VIP yet, use code UPNORTH for 20% your first month!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!