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DFS Golf: Chalk Donkey – The Memorial – DFS Army

The PGA Tour heads north to Muirfield Village for the Memorial Tournament hosted by Jack Nicklaus!

My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year for DFS golf with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!

What a crazy week down in Texas at the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial! Essentially 75% of the players priced above 9K last week either missed the cut or barely did anything with Tony Finau and Jordan Spieth being the only two to finish in the top 10. There were WD’s, missed cuts, and Spieth setting putting records. Just an insane week. While I took last week off providing content due to my wife giving birth to our second child, I didn’t take the week off from playing, and I regret that!

This week the tour heads up to Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial held at Muirfield Village Golf Club. This tournament is affectionately known as “Jack’s Tournament” and Muirfield Village as “Jack’s Place” since legendary golfer Jack Nicklaus built this course in his hometown of Dublin, Ohio to host this tournament specifically. Muirfield Village and the surrounding community is home to Jason Day (which you’ll hear about 1000 times on the broadcast this week)

The field is again smaller this week, with 120 players compared to 156 at a normal tour event, and as such, that means that you need to do everything you can to get 6/6 through the cut to have a chance at a big cash. The field is absolutely stacked this week with 6 of the top 10 in the OWGR playing and 11 of the top 20.

It’s a great week and I’m excited to be back at it full time this week providing content and my gpp player pool for our VIPs at DFS Army. We’re due for a big week and this one is shaping up to be a great one!

Course Breakdown:

Muirfield Village has hosted the Memorial Tournament since its inception in 1976 and is Jack Nicklaus’ baby as the course he designed in his native Ohio to host such an event. Roger Maltbie won that first Memorial Tournament and since then we have seen a variety of winners including Tiger Woods having won here a whopping 5 times!

At 7392 yards, this par 72 isn’t overly long and it also has extremely wide and easy to hit fairways, but it’s not a course that you can just rip driver around. The rough is always at US Open height and there are cross sections that force you to hit 3 wood or less. In fact, some players will hit 3 wood or less on half of the driveable holes. Still, this is absolutely a second shot golf course. You need to be in the fairway to attack, but even then you are hitting into small, heavily undulated greens that play incredibly fast.

The greens are bent grass which is a bit of an oddity up here in Ohio and the fairways are bent as well while the rough is Kentucky Blue Grass which can get very thick. If you listen to any of Nicklaus’ press conferences here from the last few years he’s always talking about how they are trying to fight the poa annua back from creeping into the greens and they feel like they’ve done a pretty good job of it. That being said, if you are into the First Round Leader market you may be better off targeting the guys off the AM Thursday as they won’t deal with that bumpy poa regardless.

With a standard par 72, we get four par 5’s this week and all are actually fairly gettable as they played as the four easiest holes on the course last year. They aren’t overly long, and even the shorter hitters can get theRE in two. With the size of the greens though we still won’t see many eagles.

Speaking of green size, at only 5,000 sq. feet on average these are some of the smallest the players will play this year and a premium will be placed on not only SG: Approach, but also on SG: Around the Green and scrambling. Players WILL miss greens here and how they handle that will be huge. Not only will they miss greens though, but they will also likely end up in the bunker if they do. These are some of the toughest bunkers the players play all year so ending up in there will likely result in a bogey.

One thing you might hear quite a bit of talk of this week is how the course sets up for a fade. Jack Nicklaus was known for hitting a high, soft landing fade and it’s no surprise that the crown jewel of the courses he designed rewards that. It’s not something I’m going to put a ton of stock in though. Anyone out here can hit a fade. Maybe guys feel a little more comfortable on the tee if they naturally hit one, but it’s not really enough of an ‘edge’ to make me want to chase it.

Typically scoring here is double digits under par, but nothing crazy and even though we have seen those winning scores reach -15 in three of the last four years the cut line has been par or worse in three of the four. So while you likely need to go low, you can still contend with a bad round or two. Last year, Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, and Dustin Johnson all finished in the top ten after starting out with rounds of even par. (DJ actually had two 72’s and still finished T6).

It’s a course you can go low on, but slow and steady has also won the race here. There are a ton of ways to get it done, but it all starts with finding the fairway. Do that and then you can worry about the approach into the greens and putting it in the right spots. This should be a great week and one I’m really looking forward to.

Weather:

Another week of DFS Golf and another week where I pretend to be a weatherman. As always we can’t just have a great week of weather, there has to be some question marks regarding wind and rain that we have to parse through as we build our lineups. When utilized correctly, taking advantage of a weather draw can give you a huge boost. Though when it doesn’t pan out you end up eliminating half the player pool unnecessarily.

Yikes. Ohio has been absolutely smashed with rain and severe weather the last couple days including tornados and 1.5 inches of rain on Monday. They are getting more bad storms today that should carry through into the morning a bit on Thursday. It doesn’t look like they have a possibility of a long delay with storms, but they should be getting rain, at least through the day on Thursday.

No huge AM or PM advantage on Thursday as it stands right now. If there is any sort of delay, the guys out in the afternoon will get to play Friday morning which could be beneficial as the condtions will be a bit nicer as there is no wind predicted (still rain though).

 

It looks like we’re in for a wet start to the week but the weekend looks pretty good. If they can get through Thursday/Friday without too many delays they should be fine. Right now it doesn’t look like there will be a wave advantage. If you want to stack the afternoon on Thursday and hope they get to play Friday when its maybe a little less chance of showers that seems like a fine play. Could go the opposite and just assume they slug it out through the rain and the AM gets to play in the dry conditions on Friday afternoon. A wave stack is not something that I’ll be chasing this week unless this drastically changes in the next day or two.

Key Stats this Week:

In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village.

Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and former DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?

Value Tab: 

The first thing I look at every week when I open up the  RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab is basically a formula that takes our projection for points this week x 1000/their salary. So essentially its points per 1k.

Good Rory leads the way here this week as he’s just been playing some fantastic golf as of late. He has some great history here too with a second place finish in 2012.

Hideki Matsuyama broke through with a win here in 2014 and since then has had a bit of a mixed bag of results, though a 13th last year was promising. His game is starting to come around though after a slow start to the year and as usual were just waiting on a week where the putting and iron game come together. I like him here on the fast greens as that tends to equalize the putters.

Leading the way in ownership this week will be Matt Kuchar. He’s discounted off the top guys and has just really incredibly course history. His worst finish here in his last 8 tries is 26th. He’s also been playing just great golf. He’s a great play regardless of ownership and should lock down a spot in your cash lineups.

This price on Justin Thomas is really disrespectful. I don’t care that this is his first time back after the WD with a wrist injury. He’s the 6th ranked golfer in the OWGR and is priced as 9th in this field. Yes, please. This price lets you do so much with your roster construction. I’ll differentiate elsewhere and take the chance on a guy with an elite skill set. He wouldn’t be playing if he was hurt. That being said if you roster him you should be getting up before lock to ensure he doesn’t WD and if he does you have a chance to fix your lineups.

Projected DK Score:

Projected DK Score (formerly Projected Course Score) is one of our best stats. This takes the current course into account. The FP/H averages by each hole type on the course are added up to create a raw per round FP scoring projection. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success.

This is why JT pops as a great value this week, not only the price, but he’s looking the best-projected play on the board, by almost a full point. He smashes long par 4’s and short par 5’s, of which there are 10.

Rory McIlroy has done well here over the years and has all the game to dominate this course if he can keep his putter rolling. Bryson DeChambeau is in the ultimate bounce back spot at this price. He played extremely well in his win here last year and while the game has suffered recently, it’s been mostly his inability to hit fairways. That shouldn’t be a huge issue here with the wider than normal fairways that are hit at over a 70% clip by the field.

Rickie Fowler missed his first cut in forever last week, and he tends to bounce back really strongly whenever he MC’s. He’s going overlooked in this top tier of pricing as players flock to Patrick Cantlay. I think this is an excellent spot for Rickie and he’s had some really strong performances here over the years.

And finally, “Mr. Everyone Forgot About Me Last Week” Tony Finau. He had a great week at Colonial and has finished top 12 in his last four trips to this event. He’s a stud, and he’s the direct pivot off a chalky Matt Kuchar. 

SG: Approach L25

Muirfield Village is a second shot golf course, and players will have to utilize their iron game if they want to contend this week. Small, Undulating greens and difficult bunkers around them make hitting them a premium.

David Lipsky has an extremely small sample size, but I kept him on here because I think he actually makes a really solid play this week. If we look at the European Tour where he typically plays, he gains about .6 strokes around in approach which would put him towards the top of this field anyways.

Keegan Bradley will likely be very chalky given his history here, but the current state of his game leaves a bit to be desired. He’s been good, not great, but at $7600 you don’t need a ton from him.

Maybe my favorite play of the week is Henrik Stenson. He’s got the perfect game for this course and has done well here in the past. His game is trending int he right direction and if he putts even just a little bit he will be there on Sunday contending for a win.

Maybe a bit of a sneaky play this week though is Russell Knox. Knox had a great finish at Colonial going low on Sunday and will be looking to ride that momentum into this week. His approach game is fire as usual and he putted really well on bent grass last week. He’s had some middling finishes here over the years but makes a really strong play at this price.

Other key stats to consider: SG: OTT L25, Birdies Gained, Double Bogey Avoidance,  SG: Short Par 5,  SG: Around the Green 

One thing, that puts us at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. If you aren’t using it to build lineups you’re crazy! Check out how it works here! Domination Station PGA Tutorial

What is a Chalk Donkey?

First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’.  Let’s look at each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)

Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.

9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.

8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.

Below 7.5K: >10%  Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.

One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them. 

Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?

In this section, each price range’s (Above 9K, 7.5k-9K, and Below 7.5K) Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.

It’s important to remember that just because someone is going to be highly owned, doesn’t mean that they are a bad play, but if we can gain an advantage on the field by fading a player owned by 25% or more, typically that’s the right move. There are typically 156 golfers in an event (though really only 136 this week with the PGA professionals in the field, making it more important to get 6/6) and only 70 and ties make the cut. Essentially you have to look at the ownership of a player and decide if the odds of him missing the cut are equal to or greater than the ownership. If that’s the case then a fade is typically the right play.

In a no-cut event, it takes on a little bit of a different spin. A chalky player at the top of the salary scale you have to ask yourself a few questions. Say he’s going to be 25% owned. “Is he going to win?” and “are the odds of him winning better than 1 in 4, equal to, or less?” If it’s less then I think a fade is in order. The same conversation can be had with chalk at the lower salary range. Will he be in the top half of the field? Will he be in the top 20? Etc.

And now, here my friends, are this weeks’ Chalk Donkeys:

Above 9K Chalk

Matt Kuchar: DK $9,400/FD $10,900

Projected GPP ownership: 22%-25% 

Back to ol’ Chalk Kuchar again I suppose. Man, this guy just keeps playing well. He hasn’t finished outside the top 26 since way back at the WGC-Mexico to start the year and is on a string of three top tens in his last four events. (The one miss was a 12th place finish). Not only does he have great form, but he has great course history here too.

He’s started to see his price creep up, but not nearly enough to really hinder his ownership and he should be the highest owned golfer on the slate barring anything crazy happening. So what do you with Kuch?

Personally, I’m locking him in in cash and just moving on. Don’t overthink that. In large field GPP, I think you can absolutely play him as long as you differentiate elsewhere. I think a Kuchar/Woodland stack or a Kuchar/Keegan stack will be the most popular play on the slate so find others that you can pair him within your builds. Or play him with some of the other chalky player sand come in quite a bit under the salary cap. Both are viable options, but I don’t think you can outright fade Kuchar this week.

Above 9K Pivot: 

Rickie Fowler: DK $10,600,/FD $11,300

Projected GPP Ownership: 9%-11%

Maybe I’m off here, but there is no buzz for Rickie this week. He’s one of those guys that always ends up higher owned than projections, but I think with Kuchar getting the buzz below him, and Patrick Cantlay sucking up quite a bit right next to him, it’s entirely possible we see Fowler in this low double-digit ownership range.

Fowler burned everyone last week with a missed cut and the real reason he ended up struggling was his iron play. Normally that would mean we don’t want to play him at a course that puts a premium on iron play, but Rickie has an uncanny ability to come back after losing strokes with his irons and absolutely smash the next week. It doesn’t happen very often that he loses strokes with the irons but when he does, the next week he often plays extremely well. A prime example would be earlier this year when he lost strokes approach at the Farmers and came back the next week to win the Waste Management while crushing it with the approach game.

Rickie absolutely crushes every single type of hole we have on this course, particularly the long par 4’s. This feels like a T10 at minimum for Rick this week and he’s going to be one of my core plays here.

Other highly owned players (over 15%): Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama 

7.5K – 9K Chalk

Keegan Bradley: DK $7600/FD $9200

Projected GPP Ownership: 17%-20%

Keegan makes quite a bit of sense from a statistical standpoint this week, he bombs it off the tee, he’s accurate, he’s a top-notch iron player, only thing is he can’t putt. I’m not super concerned about that this week, but what I am concerned about is that despite having some outstanding starts to tournaments, he’s never really been able to finish. Anecdotally it feels like he’s playing great but the finishes aren’t there.

He hasn’t finished top ten since the WGC-Mexico, and hasn’t cracked the top 20 since the Players. I get that he has some decent history here, two top tens, but even at this price, I can’t get on board with Keegan this week. That sort of ownership for a guy with this kind of track record of late? No thanks.

7.5K – 9K Pivot:

Billy Horschel: DK $7700/FD $8700

Projected GPP Ownership: 4%-6% 

Horschel hasn’t made the cut here in two years, but prior to that he had two solid finishes and he’s playing some really solid golf lately. He’s finished 19th last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge and 23rd at the PGA.

This is a little bit of a guy play, but I love a guy like Billy who can get with the putter and go low at a tournament. I think he sets up well here and luckily for us this is a return to bent grass of which is his best surface. His recent form off the tee and around the greens is improved, while the iron play is a bit lacking, but he gained strokes in three of four rounds at Colonial last week.

I think Billy has a great chance to contend here this week. His game is trending in the right direction and he’s a great differentiator at his price. Other guys in this range that make similar sense at ownership will be guys like Sung Kang, and Luke List. It’s tough down here as there is always a ton of volatility with these plays.

Other highly owned players (over 12%) Gary Woodland, Henrik Stenson, Adam Scott, Jason Kokrak. 

Check out my Course Preview Article for my full betting card!

–> UpNorth’s PGA Preview – The Memorial<–

Below 7.5K

Surprisingly, there is no player under 7.5k who is looking like massive chalk this week, the ownership appears to be pretty spread out with most players around 3%-4% owned. That’s not typical of a major as we usually see one or two guys down here get super highly owned. Kevin Streelman, Peter Uihlein, and Aaron Wise will all be popular and are good plays., but here are a couple of guys I’m interested in down here at low ownership.

Jason Dufner: DK $7400/FD $8600

Dufner is a former winner here and his game has started to come around the last few weeks. He missed the cut at the PGA but that’s to be expected with how short he is off the tee. If he putts at all he will be up there.

Nick Watney: DK $6700/FD $8500 

While doesn’t have great history here, he led the field in tee to green last week at Colonial and has been playing solid golf. Just a steady, cheap play who has good odds value down here. Also a much better bent grass putter than any other surface.

Joost Luiten: DK $6500/FD $7900

The 73rd ranked player in the world comes in undervalued as most Europeans are on Draftkings, but his odds to win are almost 100 points better than anyone around him. Joost is a stud who consistently makes cuts in Europe and contends quite often. He’s ranked 5th on the European Tour in SG: Approach and should fit quite well here.

 

GPP Core:

Want to know who is my GPP Core? How bout Taco or Brody’s? Check it out here on our brand new Coaches Notes page!

Final Thoughts: 

This is a fun week and I always love listening to the interviews with Jack Nicklaus. It’s a beautiful course and one that shows really well on television so be sure to watch. Right now there doesn’t look like a huge wave advantage with the weather but that can always change.

We will have content for you all through the week at DFS Army. f you aren’t a VIP yet, use code UPNORTH for 20% off EVERY MONTH FOREVER!

Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!

What are you waiting for?! 20% off with code UPNORTH this week only!

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