Key Stats this Week:

In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the PGA Championship at Bethpage Black.

Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and former DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?

Value Tab: 

The first thing I look at every week when I open up the  RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab is basically a formula that takes our projection for points this week x 1000/their salary. So essentially its points per 1k.

Scott Piercy… No.

Seriously I’m not doing it. I don’t care that he’s free. He’s putting 1.2 strokes over his long term average. And now goes from Bermuda to Poa. Maybe he continues this run of ridiculous form, but I’m going to be betting against it all day. I actually want odds on him bogeying his first hole after going bogey free last week.

As with all majors, we get soft pricing and that creates a ton of value especially in the 8K and low 9K range. Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, and Matt Kuchar are all good options this week and great values.

At this point, I’m considering fading Hideki Matsuyama despite presenting a pretty good value. He’s not the most accurate driver of the golf ball, and as you know, maybe the worst putter on tour. He just hasn’t done much this year despite having excellent tee-to-green game (four straight finishes of T24 or worse) and I don’t see that happening at a course like this.

Webb Simpson is a name that I keep coming back to this week despite being one of the shorter hitters on tour. His game is starting to come back around after a poor start to the year. He actually rates out really well for this course but the concern is how short he is off the tee. If you’re going to play Matt Kuchar then you can play Webb as he only averages two less yards off the tee. Webb is also an excellent scrambler and that ability to get up and down should help him alleviate some of the length disadvantage.

And finally, Jhonnatan Vegas and Gary Woodland. Both played well here at the Barclays in 2016. One is playing great golf and one is playing pretty poorly and its not who you would think. Woodland has really struggled the last couple months, not having a top ten since the Waste Management back in February. His driver has been great, but the irons have been poor and as usual his putter has been letting him down. Not the type of player I want in my lineups this week. Vegas though brings a ton of upside and good form to boot. He’s a sneaky good play (though probably not so sneaky) down at $7100 on DK.

Projected DK Score:

Projected DK Score (formerly Projected Course Score) is one of our best stats. This takes the current course into account. The FP/H averages by each hole type on the course are added up to create a raw per round FP scoring projection. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success.

This really is one of my favorite statistics as it identifies who statistically should play the course the best. And while this list above is a bit of a who’s who of the golfing world, I think that you can still draw some pretty important conclusions from this list.

Dustin Johnson leads the way here and by a pretty fair margin. 1st to 10th is about 2 DK points per round which isn’t huge but 1st to 2nd is .64. That’s a fairly wide gap. DJ should absolutely crush this course if his game is on and there is no reason to assume it won’t be.

Big game hunter Brooks Koepka comes in second but I do have some concerns about his iron play recently. He will also be without a doubt the highest owned player in the Milly Maker. Following Brooks though is an interesting name that it seems no one is talking about in Bryson Dechambeau. Just two months ago DFS Golf Twitter was talking about how Bryson might be the best player in the world and was going to rack up majors like it was no one’s business. A few mediocre weeks and now everyone has written him off. Don’t let anyone tell you recency bias isn’t real. I think this course sets up fantastic for Bryson and while the current form is meh, any time I can get a stud at a cheap price and low ownership it will pique my interest.

Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood both look to be good its as they have excelled on long courses like this in the past. Rose is one of my favorites this week as he has been world class this year but everyone is still hurt by the MC at the Masters and it’s affecting his price/ownership.

Driving Accuracy/Driving Distance

With the tight fairways and luscious rough, being accurate off the tee is going to be huge. With the length of the course though, you absolutely need to hit it a long ways to contend here. Let’s take a look at the top 20 of each and see if there is any cross over or players that excel in both.

Not surprisingly…there’s no crossover. So what we need to look for is golfers who hit it ‘long enough’ (though I think that’s a bit relative here) and golfers who hit it ‘accurate enough’ which I think can be a little more concrete. Of note, I excluded any golfer we had less than 5 rounds of shotlink data on. 5 is really low sample size, but with this field and all the Euros, it’s hard to go much more than that.

Essentially what I’m looking for are guys who hit it at least 295 yards and at least 60% of the fairways. I think that’s a really good target for building a player pool here. So let’s take a look at who in the field actually fits this criterion.

Rory McIlroy, Bubba Watson, Gary Woodland, Jason Day, Keith Mitchell, Tony Finau, Thomas Pieters, Jason Kokrak, Jon Rahm, Byeong Hun An, Jhonnatan Vegas, Harold Varner III, Adam Scott, Bryson DeChambeau, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose, Tiger Woods, Ryan Palmer, Charles Howell III, Hideki Matsuyama, Paul Casey, Corey Connors, Beau Hossler, Branden Grace, Bronson Burgoon, Thorbjorn Olesen, Charley Hoffman, Ross Fisher, Julian Suri, Justin Harding, Sergio Garcia, Rickie Fowler, Sung Kang, Francesco Molinari, Keegan Bradley, Louis Oosthuizen, Abraham Ancer, Daniel Berger.  

That’s 38 golfers. Nice way to start your player pool. It’s not to say that others can’t have success or contend here or that these guys are absolute locks, but they fit the bill of the type of player that I want at this course.

Other key stats to consider: SG: OTT L25, SG: Approach, Birdies Gained, Double Bogey Avoidance, SG Medium Par 4’s, SG: Long Par 4’s, SG Par 5,  SG: Around the Green 

One thing, that puts us at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. If you aren’t using it to build lineups you’re crazy! Check out how it works here! Domination Station PGA Tutorial

First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’.  Let’s look at each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)

Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.

9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.

8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.

Below 7.5K: >10%  Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.

One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them. 

Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?

In this section, each price range’s (Above 9K, 7.5k-9K, and Below 7.5K) Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.

It’s important to remember that just because someone is going to be highly owned, doesn’t mean that they are a bad play, but if we can gain an advantage on the field by fading a player owned by 25% or more, typically that’s the right move. There are typically 156 golfers in an event (though really only 136 this week with the PGA professionals in the field, making it more important to get 6/6) and only 70 and ties make the cut. Essentially you have to look at the ownership of a player and decide if the odds of him missing the cut are equal to or greater than the ownership. If that’s the case then a fade is typically the right play.

In a no-cut event, it takes on a little bit of a different spin. A chalky player at the top of the salary scale you have to ask yourself a few questions. Say he’s going to be 25% owned. “Is he going to win?” and “are the odds of him winning better than 1 in 4, equal to, or less?” If it’s less then I think a fade is in order. The same conversation can be had with chalk at the lower salary range. Will he be in the top half of the field? Will he be in the top 20? Etc.

And now, here my friends, are this weeks’ Chalk Donkeys:

Above 9K Chalk

Brooks Koepka: DK $10,400/FD $11,800

Projected GPP ownership: 24%-27% 

Brooks ‘Big Game Hunter’ Koepka tees it up this week as the co-favorite with Tiger Woods at 10-1 to win his second PGA Championship in a row. He’s chalky for a reason, this course should be a great fit for him and he has consistently shown up at these big events and contended.

Brooks has the skill set to come out here and absolutely dominate from start to finish if he’s playing his best golf. He’s one of the best golfers in the world because he has a complete game. That being said, he has shown some weaknesses in certain areas of his game lately that makes me a bit concerned about him this week.

Last week, as you know I was all in on Brooks in a weak field. This my friends is not a weak field, but that’s more or less beside the point. What do you need to do well here? Hit fairways and greens, or be sharp around the greens when you miss. Make a few putts and you’ll be right in there. So let’s look at how Brooks does in that regard.

Here’s the concern… the long term form (L50 rounds) is much better in almost every single category but putting. So what that tells me is that over the last few tournaments, Brooks’ hasn’t been driving the ball as well, hitting his irons as well, or scrambling as well as he did last year when he won two majors. It also tells me that we’re seeing his putter cover up some of those current weaknesses.

So, he’s clearly not hitting it as well, yet we’re treating him like he’s playing like he did last summer, and he’s not. Of the golfers over 10K, he’s statistically the worst over his last 20 rounds or five tournaments. And if we break down that down to the last 10 rounds, (2.5 tournaments), it’s even worse. He also has the worst Double Bogey or Worse % of anyone priced above 7K. That’s 63 golfers… not good.

The one pause I have is the price tag and how cheap he is, but you can pay a bit more for Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy who I think are superior plays this week. I’m actually considering a full fade of Brooks this week. In GPP you get massive leverage on the field who will be on him around 25% if he plays poorly. I don’t think he misses the cut by any means, but at his price tag you really need a top 5 and I think he struggles to get that this week.

Above 9K Pivot: 

Rickie Fowler: DK $9,300/FD $11,100

Projected GPP Ownership: 9%-11%

I’m not 100% sure I trust the ownership projections here, but with players like Tommy Fleetwood and Xander Schauffelle priced around Rickie, and players trying to jam in Brooks, Tiger, and Rory it’s entirely possible that we get Rickie at low double-digit ownership. He’s just not getting a ton of buzz around the industry and that makes think this is a great spot to push the chips in on him.

Look, I get the argument that he can’t win a major, but at this price, I don’t need him to win (though I think he can), and the guy not only has great current form (4th, 9th, 17th in his last three) he just shows up at majors.

 

Over the last two years, he has three top fives at Majors and hasn’t finished worse than 28th. At this price, any of those results likely returns value, even the 20th place finishes.

For being such a small guy, he hit’s it pretty far off the tee averaging around 302 yards in recent years, and he’s extremely accurate, at around 64% of fairways hit. He thinks the game well and he has an EXCELLENT short game, maybe the best in the field around the greens (though current statistics don’t show that through this year, but long term has been one of the better scramblers on the PGA Tour).

He rates out really well for us as well, 8th in our projected course score, meaning that he’s a great fit here. I’m not sure why everyone is overlooking him this week, but I’ll be pushing the chips in on him.

Other highly owned players (over 15%): Tiger Woods, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Justin Rose, Xander Schauffele

7.5K – 9K Chalk

Patrick Cantlay: DK $8200/FD $10,100

Projected GPP Ownership: 17%-20%

After making a big run at the Masters, and contending the next week at the RBC Heritage, Patrick Cantlay is getting a ton of buzz and rightfully so as he has played some phenomenal golf. While not the highest owned in this range (Hello chalk Sergio), I think that he makes the most sense to fade or be underweight on based on a few factors.

The first concern I have is that big red number under Driving Accuracy. 56% is not good. While he’s long off the tee and that can make up for some of those issues, It’s still concerning. In terms of difficulty of shot essentially a shot from the rough that’s 35 yards in front of a shot from the fairway are about the same, at least in terms of strokes gained. Here where the rough is really think we might push 40 yards. So if Cantlay is in the rough and 160 yards from the hole and Stenson is in the Fairway and 195 yards from the whole, Stenson has the less difficult shot, despite being that far back of Cantlay.

Being a little wayward off the tee is recipe for disaster this week, especially when you consider that 17 of the 18 greens are heavily guarded by Bunkers in the front and that Mr. Cantlay isn’t the worlds best Sand Player by any means.

Hitting it in the rough and trying to approach these elevated greens that are guarded by bunkers means that you’ll likely end up in those Bunkers quite a bit. Currently, Cantlay is saving par about 49% of the time from bunkers. Not great. I saw an argument earlier this week that he doesn’t hit it in the bunker as often as a player like Rafa Cabrera Bello but that also has something to do with him not playing a lot of bunker heavy courses like the Florida swing has. If he is able to avoid these bunkers he should be fine because he’s excellent from the rough. If he is smart and just lays up when he lands in the rough he may be fine too as he’s solid from 75 yards in. I don’t know that he will be able to do that though at such a long course and needing to hit as many as greens in regulation as possible.

At this ownership, I think it’s a fade. I can eat the risk at 5%-6% owned for the upside, but the leverage of fading him at this ownership outweighs the possible reward of him playing well in my opinion.

7.5K – 9K Pivot:

Bryson DeChambeau: DK $8900/FD $11,100

Projected GPP Ownership: 7%-9% 

The forgotten man. As I talked about earlier, Bryson had the entire DFS Golf Community in Fan Girl mode last fall when he won twice in a row and almost took down the FedEx cup if not for a poor performance at East Lake. Then he went into the fall swing and won again. Started the year back up with two straight top tens and a win on the Euro Tour. Not a bad couple of months of golf. Since then he has struggled a bit to find a result with a T15 at the Genesis and a T20 at the Players his best results. He did lead at the Masters after day one but had a pretty poor round 2 and 3 before playing well in round 4.

Bryson is a tough guy to like when you see the hat and hear all the science talk but actually does seem like a pretty good dude in an informal setting. That’s beside the point, he’s an excellent golfer who has shown signs of life recently and is at a course that I think really suits his game and is going to be WAY underowned given his talent level.

Bryson is one of the better drivers of the golf ball on tour. He’s extremely consistent. 300 yards and fairways at around a 67% clip will put him in great positions here. His iron play of late hasn’t been great, but he makes up for it with a solid around the green game and a good putter.

He also ranks out 3rd in projected DraftKings points for us this week, based on his ability to crush long par 4’s, and all par 5’s. I just think all signs point to him contending this week, and he is likely coming in single-digit ownership, making him an absolute smash play in big GPP for those looking to be unique. It’s a major, anyone priced above 8K likely has a shot to contend, how you perform in gpp is not only tied to those players performance, but also to their ownership level. In a contest like the Milly Maker where you absolutely need to be unique, Bryson makes a ton of sense to give you an edge on the field on a low owned guy in a great spot. One of my favorite plays this week.

Other highly owned players (over 12%) Hideki Matsuyama, Paul Casey, Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Cantlay, Bubba Watson, Henrik Stenson, Gary Woodland, Jason Kokrak.

Check out my Course Preview Article for my full betting card!

–> UpNorth’s PGA Preview – AT&T Byron Nelson<–

Below 7.5K

Surprisingly, there is no player under 7.5k who is looking like massive chalk this week, the ownership appears to be pretty spread out with most players around 3%-4% owned. That’s not typical of a major as we usually see one or two guys down here get super highly owned. I broke down five different value plays below 7.3K in my Five Finger Discount Article earlier this week and you can check it out below!

Check out my sneaky value plays for the PGA Championship!

–> UpNorth’s Five Finger Discounts <–

GPP Core:

Want to know who is my GPP Core? How bout Taco or Brody’s? Check it out here on our brand new Coaches Notes page. This is typically LOCKED up for our VIPs only but we are opening it up for FREE this week so don’t miss out! My notes will be updated by 4:00 PM CST on Wednesday!

Final Thoughts: 

Second Major of the year! I always caution to be smart about your bankroll, but with a Major, let it slide a little bit and let’s have some fun! There are tons of great contests with really solid payout structures. You don’t have to play the Milly Maker! The only lineups I’ll have in there are from contest tickets I won. There are MUCH better contests elsewhere if you want to have a positive ROI.

Remember to check out all of our FREE content this week and if you like what you see sign up to become a VIP and get this every week for the rest of the season, PLUS all of our other sports, all for one low price!  If you aren’t a VIP yet, use code UPNORTH for 20% your first month!

–> UpNorth’s Five Finger Discounts <–

–> Bethpage Black Course Breakdown <–

–> PGA Research Station <–

Don’t forget our SWAG Contest with added prize pool for VIPs only!

Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!

What are you waiting for?! 20% off with code UPNORTH this week only!

—> Become a VIP Today! <—