Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.
Above are the top three pitchers in Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report for the main slate, and none of them should really come as a huge surprise given their ability/matchup and options on the slate. When it comes to MLB, strikeouts are king, so the KSCORE is something I take into consideration very heavily. But let’s break these three down, shall we…
- Justin Verlander – This one should come as no surprise and is probably the best pitching option on the day. He has a KSCORE through the roof, as the Tigers are striking out a ton against right handed pitching. This game doesn’t have an implied total yet, but I would assume the Tigers will come in below or around the 3 run number. Give me all the Verlander tonight.
- Gio Gonzalez – Gio may come as a bit of a surprise here, but he has actually pitched well since joining the Brewers. He has gone for at least 19.8 Draftkings points in two straight starts, however I don’t love picking on this Phillies offense and the KSCORE isn’t really there to hide any errors he makes. But, given his price he’s a perfectly fine SP2 on Draftkings if trying to jam in some bats.
- Matt Strahm – If I’m being honest, I won’t be going here. The Dodgers are one of the best offenses in baseball and almost always get overlooked because they play on the west coast. They have an implied run total of 4.5 and I would expect that to go up. I would rather have the Dodgers bats here over Strahm.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings:
Here are three pitchers that we can target with opposing offenses on tonight’s slate given their carnage rating. I don’t love picking on Kenta Maeda because he is fairly good at limiting damage and is much better at home than on the road. With that said, I do like the Tampa Bay Rays against Jose Urena. The only thing I don’t like for the Rays is the ballpark, Marlins Park is one of the best pitchers parks in the league. Finally, Boston is always stackable, but I struggle with doing it against German Marquez. Marquez is one of the better pitchers in the league when he is away from Coors Field. In road games, he has an ERA of 1.55 and gives up a batting average of .125. He’s not someone I’ll be fully stacking against, but I don’t hate any one-offs given the talent in this Boston lineup.
Full Count Breakdown:
Los Angeles Angels (+130) @ Minnesota Twins (-140)
I had 50% Twins stacks on yesterday’s slate and it didn’t really work out the greatest, but I think I’ll be going right back to the well here. They have an implied run total of 5.5 runs and get a matchup against Trevor Cahill who has a DFSA Grade of 33.4. As for the Angels, Jake Odorizzi has been pitching extremely well and will be a guy I look to as a SP2 option, so no interest for me.
LAA
5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Just one-offs
MIN
5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler
4-star plays: Jason Castro (DK), Marwin Gonzalez
GPP Note: I like the Twins a good deal here
Baltimore Orioles (+231) @ New York Yankees (-254)
J.A. Happ hasn’t been all that great this year, but finally had a nice start last time out. This time around he gets a weak Orioles offense with a bunch of strikeouts throughout. I’ll have some interest in Happ here, and leave the Orioles for someone else. As for the Yankees offense, they have an implied run total of 5.7 which is a slate high at the moment. They should be popular, but for good reason.
BAL
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No interest here from me
NYY
5-star plays: Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit, Aaron Hicks
4-star plays: Brett Gardner, Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier
GPP Note: The Yankees are one of the best stacks on the slate
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Pittsburgh Pirates (+142) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-154)
Both of the pitchers in this game are competent, although I much prefer Zack Greinke. However, I won’t be stacking up either offense in this one.
PIT
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Francisco Cervelli (DK)
GPP Note: One-offs only
ARI
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: One-offs only
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants
We don’t have a total yet on this game and it is supposed to have a good amount of weather issues associated with it as well. Make sure to keep an eye on the Weather Station for updates throughout the day. IF this game is good to go, it may just be a stay away for me. Both of these pitchers are bad, but so are the offenses and are in a massive pitchers park.
TOR
5-star plays: Justin Smoak
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: One-offs only
SFG
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Pablo Sandoval
GPP Note: One-offs only
Chicago Cubs (+109) @ Cincinnati Reds (-118)
Neither Sonny Gray or Yu Davish are the pitchers that they use to be and some people will continue to play them based on their names. This is a great ballpark for hitting home runs and both pitchers have their walk issues, so this game could end up shooting out pretty good.
CHC
5-star plays: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: I like the Cubs as a contrarian stack
CIN
5-star plays: Jesse Winker, Joey Votto
4-star plays: Nick Senzel, Eugenio Saurez
GPP Note: I like the Reds as a contrarian stack as well
New York Mets (+148) @ Washington Nationals (-161)
I will have a lot of interest in Patrick Corbin in this spot, he’s seen the Mets twice this season and has mixed results, but I like him here. With that said, very little interest in the Mets offense for me. The Nationals, on the other hand, are very playable against an unproven pitcher in Wilmer Font. They have some awesome DFSA Grades in the Research Station, check these out…
NYM
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Peter Alonso
GPP Note: Not much I like here
WAS
5-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Adam Eaton
4-star plays: Howie Kendrick, Kurt Suzuki, Brian Dozier
GPP Note: I like the Nats a lot here in this spot
Milwaukee Brewers (+108) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-117)
I touched on Gio Gonzalez a bit earlier, although he’s not the greatest pitcher, he’s not someone I really want to stack against either. As for the Brewers, their offense only got better with the addition of Keston Hiura, and his price is still the same as it was yesterday. Dirt cheap and helps make a stack work, I love the Brewers as a way off-the board stack.
MIL
5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Eric Thames, Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Keston Hiura, Yasmani Grandal, Ryan Braun
GPP Note: Probably my favorite GPP stack of the day
PHI
5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Some very solid one-off options, but I’m not stacking them
Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins
We don’t have a total on this game quite yet, as we wait to find out who the PLR will be for the Rays. I touched on the Rays offense earlier when talking about Jose Urena, I like them a good deal here. The only bad part about the Rays is that they will be playing in a huge ballpark beneficial to pitchers, but I don’t think its a killer for me.
TBR
5-star plays: Austin Meadows, Ji-Man Choi
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: I like the Rays as a GPP stack
MIA
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I may only stack the Marlins a few times this season, and this certainly isn’t one of those times
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Colorado Rockies (+132) @ Boston Red Sox (-143)
Chris Sale was able to strikeout 17 Rockies yesterday. No, Eduardo Rodriguez isn’t Chris Sale, but the truth is this team strikes out a lot and really is below average away from Coors. Rodriguez is one of my favorite SP2 options on the day. I touched on the Red Sox offense earlier, there are some nice one-off options, but I’m nots stacking against Marquez away from home.
COL
5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Trevor Story
GPP Note: One-offs only
BOS
5-star plays: JD Martinez, Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Mitch Moreland, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: One-offs only
Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers
We don’t have a total in this game either, but I would expect the Astros to come in at the highest total of the day again. They will be popular, but for good reason, you’ll want to get a piece of them in your cash games. Justin Verlander is the best SP option on the slate, hard no on the Tigers bats.
HOU
5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, George Springer, Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Robinson Chirinos, Tyler White, Josh Reddick
GPP Note: Anyone that cracks the lineup is playable here, they’re the best stack on the slate
DET
5-star plays: No
4-star plays: No
GPP Note: Send me a H2H if you’re going to stack the Tigers, I like free money
St. Louis Cardinals (+130) @ Atlanta Braves (-140)
Mike Soroka is a guy that I think has a lot of talent and I like his stuff. I don’t know that I can pitch him here because I have a lot of respect for the Cardinals offense. I will definitely give it a hard look though. The Braves are in a good spot against Michael Wacha, he’s not a guy we should shy away from.
STL
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: One-offs only
ATL
5-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Great for mini-stacks
Texas Rangers (-125) @ Kansas City Royals (+115)
The Royals were able to put up some good runs last night, but I expect that to end tonight with a matchup against Mike Minor. Minor is a legit good pitcher this year and the Royals strikeout a good amount, I’m willing to go with him as a SP1 or expensive SP2 option. The Rangers have an implied total of 4.8 runs which feels a little high, but I don’t mind playing them against Jorge Lopez.
TEX
5-star plays: Joey Gallo, Ronald Guzman, Shin-soo Choo
4-star plays: Asdrubal Cabrera, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor
GPP Note: Not my favorite, but I get it
KCR
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi
GPP Note: One-offs only
San Diego Padres (+138) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-150)
I’m not in the business of stacking against Kenta Maeda at home, I’ll let other people make that mistake. However, I really do like the Dodgers against Matt Strahm even though he has a high Carnage Rating.
SDP
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Manny Machado
GPP Note: Not much I like here
LAD
5-star plays: Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Kike Hernandez, Austin Barnes (DK)
GPP Note: I like them as a sneaky stack for GPPs
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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