Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.
None of these guys should come as much of a surprise as top tier pitching plays on the slate given their abilities and matchups, but we will break them down individually.
- Chris Sale – We just saw this matchup a few days ago for Sale and the Astros. Sale walked away with 20 Draftkings points. He struggled with walks in that game, walking five to go along with 10 strikeouts. The strikeouts will be there for him on most nights to combat runs/walks that he gives up along the way. A matchup against the Astros isn’t great even for the best of pitchers, but Sale is in a good spot here.
- Noah Syndergaard – Thor draws one of the better pitching matchups on the slate in the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are striking out at a rate of 26.4% and don’t have a lot of pop to go along with it. This is a great spot for Syndergaard and comes at a discount compared to guys like Sale and Snell who we will talk about shortly.
- Blake Snell – Snell is the most expensive pitcher on both sites tonight in a matchup with the Cleveland Indians. If I’m being honest, I’m pretty hesitant about the price tag here. He’s giving up a 34% hard contact rate on the season, but a strikeout rate of 33% helps combat that. Cleveland does strikeout a decent amount and only has an implied run total of 3.5 which I would expect to trend down as the day goes on. I won’t talk you off of Snell here, but I don’t know that I’ll be paying all the way up here.
Finding pitchers to attack
You can use the carnage rating system in order to find pitchers to attack, or you can use a similar process I used with finding pitchers to target and use the Research Station. Let’s take a look at who has the lowest carnage scores of the day:
These are three pitchers we can look to attack with opposing offenses given their matchups and abilities. We’ll start with Foltynewicz who really has not been good this season. He has an ERA of nearly seven and gets a very difficult matchup against a potent Cardinals lineup. The Cardinals have an implied run total of 5.3 here at home, I like them a good amount. The Yankees are coming off about a week straight of being one of the chalkier offenses on the slate, and they draw another great matchup tonight. Jakob Junis is giving up a hard contact percentage of 41.5% with the wind blowing out at around 11 mph in Kansas City. I love attacking road teams in stacks because it guarantees ninth-inning at-bats, the Yankees are very viable here. Finally, the Angels draw a matchup with Drew Smyly who also has an ERA of near seven. Smyly is giving up an absurd 51% hard contact rate and travels to Los Angeles to take on the Angels. Mike Trout will be one of the top bats on the slate and for good reason. Following him up with Ohtani, and some ancillary pieces could make for an interesting stack. The problem with the Angels is that they don’t hit a ton of home runs and play in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. With that said, the Angels are still in a good spot here.
Full Count Breakdown:
Cincinnati Reds (+147) @ Chicago Cubs (-160)
When it comes to Cubs games we always need to keep an eye on the Weather Station to monitor the wind, as it plays a big role in the potential outcome of the game. Right now (the night before) it looks like the wind will be blowing across the field at around nine mph. Kyle Hendricks has been pitching out of his mind lately and being very efficient and going deep into games. Hendricks is not a guy I want to stack against and I don’t mind using him on the showdown slate, which I’ll have notes on here early tomorrow morning! -> Coaching Notes/Player Picks. As far as the Cubs go, DeSclafani isn’t a terrible pitcher but is in bad form. The Cubs are very viable here.
CIN
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: I’m not in the business of stacking against Hendricks
CHC
5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Jayson Heyward, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez
GPP Note: The Cubs make for a pretty decent stack
Miami Marlins (+129) @ Washington Nationals (-140)
I don’t know that Kyle McGowin is stretched out, so I don’t think we can justify using him as a pitcher here. I likely won’t have interest in Pablo Lopez either. I don’t mind the Nationals stack here (I’m still a little on edge after they couldn’t drive in any runs yesterday when I fully stacked them. They could’ve easily had double-digit runs, but whatever rant over), but maybe best left for deep GPPs.
MIA
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Starlin Castro, Brian Anderson
GPP Note: They provide some nice values to fit in more expensive bats and pitching
WAS
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Howie Kendrick
GPP Note: MME stack
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
I like Walker Beuhler here in a pitchers park even after the Pirates offense went bonkers yesterday. The Pirates haven’t named a starting pitcher yet, but I don’t know that it’s all that important. I don’t like stacking teams in this ballpark, but the Dodgers have a lethal lineup, so if you want to go there I don’t mind it.
LAD
5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Justin Turner
GPP Note: I don’t mind them as a mini-stack or a full stack in large field tourneys
PIT
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: One-offs only
San Diego Padres (-120) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+111)
Joey Lucchesi is a guy I think we can find an edge with here tonight. He’s priced in the upper SP2 range tonight against the Blue Jays who have an implied run total of 4.1 runs. The Jays really struggle with the slider and are striking out at a fairly large 25.3% rate on the season. Lucchesi throws a slider around 58-60% of the time, I need to do a little more digging and will likely provide some more info on the situation to VIP members, but on initial looks, this is a great spot for him. Trent Thorton is a bit boom or bust, but has had some serious home/road splits this season. I think you can target the Padres as a deep tournament stack.
SDP
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Deep GPP stack
TOR
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Justin Smoak
GPP Note: I’ll likely be way overweight on Joey Lucchesi, be sure to hop in the Slack Chat closer to lock to get my final take on this spot.
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Tampa Bay Rays (-138) @ Cleveland Indians (+127)
I touched on Blake Snell earlier and like him as a pitcher tonight, so no Indians for me. Shane Bieber is coming off of a career game last time out where he threw a complete game shutout with 15 k’s. I won’t be stacking against him either.
TBR
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Austin Meadows
GPP Note: One-offs only
CLE
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: One-offs only
Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets
I also touched on Noah Syndergaard earlier and really like him against a strikeout happy Tigers team, so no interest from them. This Mets lineup is missing a lot of their bats to injury, I think I’ll wait for them to get healthy to start stacking them again.
DET
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No thanks
NYM
5-star plays: Peter Alonso, Todd Frazier
4-star plays: Carlos Gomez, Wilson Ramos
GPP Note: I’ll probably stick to mini-stacks here
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers
Eickhoff and Anderson have been very interesting this season, they’ve both been pretty up and down. Given the potency of both of these lineups, I’ll have no interest in either of the pitchers, but both offenses are certainly in play given this hitters paradise.
PHI
5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: I don’t mind a Phillies stack as a GPP leverage spot
MIL
5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Eric Thames
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Ben Gamel
GPP Note: I always like stacking the Brewers, they’re not in my top three, but they’re probably top five
Boston Red Sox (-120) @ Houston Astros (+110)
The fact that the Astros are small underdogs against Chris Sale just proves how elite this offense is. I won’t be stacking them, but I wouldn’t shy away from one-offs. The Red Sox may be popular here, but I don’t think I’ll be on them. Wade Miley does a great job at not getting completely blown up. He’s given up just two runs or less in four of his last five games started. With that said, Mookie crushes lefties.
BOS
5-star plays: JD Martinez (If in the lineup), Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Steve Pearce
GPP Note: I probably won’t stack, but there are some elite one-off options here
HOU
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: George Springer, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Don’t be afraid to target some one-offs against Sale
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Chicago White Sox (+197) @ Minnesota Twins (-215)
For those of you who follow me on Twitter (@MadnessDFS) you’ll know I was on tilt all afternoon yesterday watching the Twins put up home run after home run. I stacked the Twins all over the place on Tuesday night against Matt Harvey and the game got PPD because of field conditions in LA, then in the same spot the next day they weren’t on the main slate and hit eight home runs on their way to 16 runs. Can you guys tell I’m a little edgy tonight after the Bucks loss? ANYWAY! Jose Berrios is a very nice option here, so no interest in the Sox. Lopez has been boom or bust this season, so I don’t mind going right back to the Twins here.
CHW
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I like Berrios a good deal here
MIN
5-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano
GPP Note: I like the Twins here, but they may be over-owned because of their performance yesterday
New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals
This looks like it will be a bullpen game for the Yanks as Chad Green will start with Luis Cessa to follow. I don’t have a ton of interest in the Royals, but their speed/power combo sets you up great for potential ceiling games. I broke down the Yankees earlier when talking about Junis, I like them a lot here.
NYY
5-star plays: Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit
4-star plays: Kendrys Morales, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks
GPP Note: Stack em up
KCR
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ryan O’Hearn, Hunter Dozier, Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: One-offs only for me
Atlanta Braves (+135) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-147)
I touched on the Cardinals earlier and I really like them against Folty here. The Cards are one of my top stacks of the night. As for the Braves, I don’t stack against Mikolas because of his ability to limit runs and hard contact.
ATL
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: One-offs only
STL
5-star plays: Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong
4-star plays: Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Martinez, Kolten Wong
GPP Note: Top five stack on the slate for me
Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies
Remember that Orioles pitching staff that we targeted repeatedly over the past week with the Yankees… well now they go to Coors. With that said, I think John Means is the best pitcher in their rotation so maybe today isn’t the day to go all in with the Rockies, but they are still one of the top stacks on the slate. The Orioles are priced up pretty good here, but get a matchup with an unproven Jeff Hoffman in Coors.
BAL
5-star plays: Trey Mancini, Renato Nunez
4-star plays: Chris Davis, Jonathon Villar
GPP Note: It’s Coors, they’re playable
COL
5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond
4-star plays: Chris Iannetta, Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl
GPP Note: One of the top stacks on the slate
Texas Rangers (+145) @ Los Angeles Angels (-158)
I touched on the Angels already when talking about Drew Smyly, they’re in a great spot here. Griffin Canning is a guy that I really like and think has great stuff. He has a nice strikeout rate and the Rangers aren’t shy about swinging at the ball. Canning is a decent option here, so not a lot of Rangers interest from me.
TEX
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Joey Gallo
GPP Note: One-offs only
LAA
5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, Tommy La Stella
GPP Note: I wish the lineup was better, but they’re a nice stack here
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Seattle Mariners (+151) @ Oakland Athletics (-164)
Neither of these pitchers is that great but draw a great ballpark. With that said, I think we can take a long look at both of these offenses here. Of the two, give me the A’s offense.
SEA
5-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Edwin Encarnacion
4-star plays: Jay Bruce, Mitch Haniger, Domingo Santana
GPP Note: The Mariners make for a nice low owned stack for large field tourneys
OAK
5-star plays: Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Nick Hundley (DK)
4-star plays: Mark Canha, Jurickson Profar, Matt Olson, Stephen Piscotty, Chad Pinder
GPP Note: I love the Athletics here, one of my top GPP stacks on the board
Arizona Diamondbacks (-130) @ San Francisco Giants (+120)
Robbie Ray is coming off a pretty below average start against these Giants in his last start. He gets a ballpark boost here and I think you can target Ray with some confidence here. I won’t have interest in either of these offenses, so if you want exposure to this game get it through the pitching.
ARI
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nick Ahmed, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: One-offs only
SFG
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Tyler Austin
GPP Note: No, I like Ray a good amount here
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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