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DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown, Advice, and Strategy for FanDuel and Draftkings – May 22nd, 2019

Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers

I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.

  • Gerrit Cole – Cole is the highest price pitcher on the slate and is a massive favorite at -322. The KSCORE is what makes this spot so attractive for me, it’s very rare to get someone over 650. Not only this but gets a SIERA of 2.43 and a crazy carnage rating of 1.91. Cole checks all the boxes tonight, but you’ll be paying a pretty price for him.
  • Jacob deGrom – deGrom gets a worse matchup but we know he is one of the best pitchers in the league. In one start against the Nationals this season he scored 33.9 Draftkings points. However, he is coming off a rough start against the Marlins of all teams. There is some upside though, deGrom has a strikeout rate of 31.9% and the Nats are striking out at a 25.6% rate, this is a nice spot for him.
  • Max Scherzer – Scherzer is tied with Luis Castillo on Draftkings for the second highest pitching salary of the slate. The Mets offense has turned things around in their past two games, but have not been swinging good bats overall. As if it matters when Scherzer takes the mound, he’s one of the best pitchers in the league and has a very nice KSCORE to give himself a nice floor. He’s a great option tonight.

Finding pitchers to attack

You can use the carnage rating system in order to find pitchers to attack, or you can use a similar process I used with finding pitchers to target and use the Research Station.  Let’s take a look at who has the lowest carnage scores of the day:

These are three pitchers we can look to target with opposing offenses on tonight’s slate given their carnage ratings. I like to stream offenses against Dan Straily because, to be honest, he’s a gas can. The Yankees have been pretty chalky over the past few days, but have put up 34 runs in the last three games. They have hefty price tags but are well worth it if you can get there. Pittsburgh draws an interesting matchup against Jon Gray and to be honest I don’t know that I’ll be all over this matchup like the other two. Jon Gray is a very good pitcher away from Coors Field and I never really look to stack teams in Pittsburgh due to the parks ability to suppress runs. Finally, the Red Sox draw a matchup with Aaron Sanchez. The Red Sox have an implied run total of 5.3 runs and I love targeting road team offenses because they’re guaranteed 9th inning at bats. Keep an eye on our Starting Lineups Page for news on JD Martinez, he’s been out of the lineup for the past few days and seems to be fighting through some sort of injury.


Full Count Breakdown:

Oakland Athletics (-115) @ Cleveland Indians (+106)

We kick things off with the A’s and Indians who have a pretty healthy 9.6 run implied total. I gotta say, I’m a big fan of Frankie Montas and his stuff, he certainly passes the eye test. The Indians offense can be a bit boom or bust and I think have more interest in Montas in this spot. As for the A’s, Jefry Rodriguez has been trending downward and maybe we are on the brink of a blow-up start for him. I don’t mind jumping on the A’s offense here and getting ahead of the curve.

OAK

5-star plays: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman

4-star plays: Stephen Piscotty, Marcus Semien, Jurickson Profar

GPP Note: I like the A’s as a stack on the early slate, they have an implied run total of just over 5 runs

CLE

5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Carlos Gonzalez

GPP Note: The Indians are REALLY cheap and help fit in some big-time pitchers if you want to do that, but I’ll likely have more interest in Frankie Montas here.


Cincinnati Reds (-116) @ Milwaukee Brewers (+107)

The Brewers will run into a buzz saw in Luis Castillo after getting shutout by Sonny Gray last night. This is a spot where you need to keep an eye on the Starting Lineups Page for some Christian Yelich news, he’s dealing with some back spasms. I would normally have a ton of interest in two teams playing at Miller Park, but both of these pitchers have been great this season, so I’ll likely look elsewhere.

CIN

5-star plays: Eugenio Saurez

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: More interest in Zach Davies, who has pitched surprisingly well this season with a sub 2.0 ERA

MIL

5-star plays: Christian Yelich

4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Ryan Braun, Yasmani Grandal (DK)

GPP Note: GPP flyer, but Castillo is tough


Kansas City Royals (+154) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-168)

This will be the first game of a doubleheader here, and it looks like Michael Wacha and Brad Keller will get the starts. I love the Royals if Wacha gets the start. Wacha is giving up a hard contact rate of 41.8% and the Royals are very fun stack with their power and speed combo. I will really like the stack if Yadier Molina gets the day game off and starts the night game, the Royals can open up the running game much more with Wieters behind the plate.

KCR

5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, Hunter Dozier

4-star plays: Aaron Gordon

GPP Note: I like the Royals a lot here

STL

5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna

4-star plays: Matt Carpenter, Jose Martinez

GPP Note: The Cardinals have a great offense against an iffy pitcher, a very good spot for them


Seattle Mariners (-121) @ Texas Rangers (+112)

These two teams have been chalky along with the Yankees over the past few days, but for good reason. This game has an implied total of 11.7 runs which is a slate high. I like the Mariners side more as they draw a matchup with Jesse Chavez who is likely the opener followed by Adrian Sampson. Sampson has given up 11 runs in his last 13.2 innings pitched, which is #NotGood. The Rangers get a bit of a tougher matchup with Marco Gonzales but are still great plays, but you’ll pay a pretty penny for them.

SEA

5-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Jay Bruce

4-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion, Omar Narvaez, Mitch Haniger

GPP Note: Slate high in implied runs, a great stack

TEX

5-star plays: Joey Gallo, Hunter Pence

4-star plays: Logan Forsythe, Rougned Odor

GPP Note: Great stack as well, but very expensive

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Arizona Diamondbacks (+121) @ San Diego Padres (-131)

Neither of these pitchers is great, but neither are these offenses especially in this ballpark. If I’m looking for a punt SP2 option I’ll probably look to this game.

ARI

5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Ketel Marte

GPP Note: There isn’t much I like in this game

SDP

5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Franmil Reyes

GPP Note: This is close to a cross off game for me


Colorado Rockies (-119) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+110)

I briefly touched on this game earlier when talking about pitchers we can attack. With that said, I’ll have some Jon Gray interest for GPPs, he’s proven he can put up some big games away from Coors. I’m not really looking at either offense here, maybe the Rockies as a 1% stack.

COL

5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: Not much interest here outside of Jon Gray

PIT

5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Josh Bell

GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Jon Gray than this offense


New York Yankees (-204) @ Baltimore Orioles (+187)

I briefly touched on this game as well with Dan Straily on the other side. As I said, the Yankees have scored 34 runs over their last three games and will look to keep things going here. The O’s bullpen is taxed behind Straily, they are likely the top stack of the day for me, the only thing holding them down is their price tags.

NYY

5-star plays: Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres

4-star plays: Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, DJ LeMahieu, Clint Frazier

GPP Note: Love the Yankees tonight

BAL

5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: I won’t be using CC Sabathia, but I also won’t be using this offense


Boston Red Sox (-149) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+138)

I also touched on this spot earlier when talking about targeting the Sox against Aaron Sanchez. It’s not my favorite spot, but the Red Sox have a scary good offense and I won’t talk you off of them if you want to stack them on the road. I won’t have much interest in the Blue Jays, however.

BOS

5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez (If in the lineup)

4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland

GPP Note: Nothing wrong with this stack

TOR

5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Justin Smoak, Rowdy Tellez

GPP Note: One-offs only

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Washington Nationals (+102) @ New York Mets (-110)

This game features two aces in Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer who are both in the top three of the Carnage Report tonight. I likely won’t have any interest in either offense, jump on these pitchers.

WAS

5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: Jacob deGrom is elite

NYM

5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: Max Scherzer is elite


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Tampa Bay Rays

Rich Hill will get the Rays in a spot that I was all over Clayton Kershaw last night, I don’t mind going back to this spot tonight, but given the pitching options tonight I may go elsewhere. I’m not in love with either offense if I had to choose one it would be the road team.

LAD

5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy

GPP Note: They’re a fine GPP stack

TBR

5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Rich Hill


Miami Marlins (+110) @ Detroit Tigers (-119)

This is another spot where we have two bad pitchers and two bad offenses. If you need a punt pitcher I won’t talk you off of either of these guys because I won’t have any of either offense.

MIA

5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Curtis Granderson

GPP Note: No interest

DET

5-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: One-offs only


Philadelphia Phillies (+132) @ Chicago Cubs (-143)

We don’t have a total on this game because we are waiting for a wind report, but early looks of it look like the wind will be blowing out at around 14 mph. Keep an eye on the Weather Station here, the wind may give both offenses a boost here.

PHI

5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Andrew McCutchen

4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper

GPP Note: I’ll have much more interest if the wind strengthens

CHC

5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez

4-star plays: Kris Bryant

GPP Note: Again, dependant on the wind


Chicago White Sox (+291) @ Houston Astros (-323)

Gerrit Cole and the Astros are massive favorites here. Cole is the best raw option on the slate if you have the money for him, but he comes at a high cost. The Astros offense is also in a good spot against Ivan Nova, feel free to load up on them as well.

CHW

5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: I’m not playing bats against Cole

HOU

5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, George Springer

4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Josh Reddick

GPP Note: Great stacking option

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Minnesota Twins (-109) @ Los Angeles Angels (+101)

I love stacking against Matt Harvey, he gives up a hard contact percentage of 39.2% and has an ERA of 5.26. The Twins could get overlooked here and I’ll have some interest in them. The Angels are also in a decent spot with an implied run total of 4.5 runs.

MIN

5-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler

4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Marwin Gonzalez, Jonathon Schoop

GPP Note: Sneak stack option

LAA

5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani

4-star plays: Tommy La Stella, Kole Calhoun

GPP Note: MME stack option that should be low owned


Atlanta Braves (-146) @ San Francisco Giants (+135)

I’ll have a decent amount of interest in Max Fried here, I love attacking pitchers in this ballpark. I probably won’t have much interest in either offense but the Braves have some nice one-off options.

ATL

5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley

GPP Note: Mini-stacks or one-offs

SFG

5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: I like Fried here


As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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