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“Buyers & Sellers” Trending Picks Plays and Tips for MLB DFS May 22

Welcome to a little theme I call “Buyers & Sellers” where we use trending data from the MLB DFS Army Research Station in order to locate players on the upswing and downswing.  By recognizing these players, we can also determine if they are overpriced or underpriced for the current environment.  Like day trading and timing stock markets, we will watch for key fluctuations as possible indicators of today’s performance.

 

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May 22 “Buyers” for MLB Lineups

Catcher

Austin Barnes (LAD – $2300 FD/$3500 DK) – Targeting the Tampa openers and bullpen isn’t always a great idea, but Austin is heating up and cheap.  The combination leads to a low risk, decent upside play in using a catcher hitting only a .260 woba over 14 days but now hitting over .460 for his past 7.  This upward spike is something outpacing his price, allowing us to exploit the market if targeting Dodgers tonight.

Consider – Contreras (CHC), Sanchez (NYY)

First Base

Miguel Cabrera (DET – $2700 FD/$3500 DK) – This might be one of your last chances to successfully roster the legend as he enters the sunset of his career.  He and Albert Pujols both can still heat up at times, but generally speaking are afterthoughts in today’s game.  Miggy has spiked from barely a .300 woba over two weeks to a now .456 over the last week.  At his price, he’s set to still bring your roster a low risk value for some time.  And, he draws Jose Urena tonight.

Consider – Pearce (BOS), Freeman (ATL)

Editor’s Note – It should go without saying to check both injury lists and starting lineups before blindly plugging and playing any individual player.  For current data and lineups, consult our coaching rooms and/or our Starting Lineups page, available to all members.  The Lineups page contains xwoba stats, carnage matchup ratings, and many other more basic, catch-all stats to help you build effective lineups.

Second Base

Brandon Lowe (TBR – $3700 FD/$4600 DK) – A little pricey for what we are trying to accomplish, but when you spike from your L14 woba of .251 to a L7 woba of .383, you are having a good week and seeing the ball well.  People will talk about the Rich Hill matchup, and that is a strong point, but when you are seeing the ball well, you are seeing the ball well.  And, with Lowe, you will see lower ownership in your gpps tonight should he continue hitting the ball with authority.

Consider – McMahon (COL), Alberto (BAL), Dozier (WAS)

Third Base

Anthony Rendon (WAS – $3900 FD/$5300 DK) – A true slate-breaker, Rendon needs to run hot to justify his price usually.  After suffering a cool period, and a price dip of sorts, he is showing signs of taking off again.  His L14 woba was .441, which isn’t exactly cold, but his L7 woba has spiked to a .566 and leads all 3B tonight based on this hot batter, small sample metric I love to use.

Consider – JD Davis (NYM), Anderson (MIA)

Shortstop

Gleyber Torres (NYY – $4000 FD/$5300 DK) – Another pricey bat, but one doing loads of damage.  Two homer upside and facing a less than threatening Dan Straily.  Looking at the “hot or not” numbers, his L14 woba is an insanely hot .501, but his L7 woba is still hotter at .558!!  He’s been hot for over 2 weeks.  Let’s hope it continues because at this production level, he’s a $6000+ player on Fanduel.

Consider – Segura (PHI), Crawford (SFG)

Outfielders

Bryan Reynolds (PIT – $3300 FD/$3800 DK) – The outfielders always contain our depth, and with that come loads of options.  I spotlighted Reynolds because he will go overlooked in the Pirates lineup, but his numbers speak for themselves right now.  The last two weeks, he has carried a mediocre woba of .369, but this week it has spiked substantially to .563!  While the price isn’t exactly low risk, the upside of these numbers suggest he’s a fire sale for you if he just keeps this up one more day.  And, that’s all we are after in chasing trending information……just hold on…..ONE…..MORE….DAY!

Consider – Parra (WAS), Acuna (ATL), Trout (LAA), Reddick (HOU), Granderson (MIA)……..more depth at position, more options to consider.

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May 22 “Sellers” for MLB Lineups

Catcher

Wilson Ramos – Facing Max Scherzer is bad enough, but add in the downward trend of woba from .374 to .324 and we are heading the wrong direction.  Easy fade tonight.

First Base

Josh Bell – One of the hotter hitters lately, Bell has likely cracked a couple of your lineups.  However, when do you get off the train?  As his production climbs, his price climbs.  But, sometimes that first sign of a dip is indication enough to hop off and wait for another opportunity.  A trending woba down to .404 from .522 is enough for me to take a little pause at his $4400 FD and $5500 DK price tag.

Second Base

Cesar Hernandez – Cole Hamels isn’t exactly chopped liver, and Cesar’s price point isn’t terrible, but he’s simply trending in the wrong direction.  Down from .425 to .380 this week, we have better options to chase than someone bouncing from top to bottom of the order, adding another layer of value to watch.

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Third Base

Vladimir Guererro jr – Still cheap on FD, but on DK he’s overpriced for what he’s not doing.  Down from .458 to .369, I don’t need to chase the young phenom.  When I’m tracking L7 numbers, I can simply wait for a turnaround.  I’ll notice in about 2-3 days and hop back on the train when timing is better.

Shortstop

Trevor Story – This one was a toss up between Story and Carlos Correa.  Both are trending down right now, but Trevor is on the road.  I have done some digging around lately and COL simply isn’t the offense on the road they should be.  We all know this, but it’s nice to do a little research and confirm it.  Sure, they will have their outbursts, but as a general philosophy, I can fade Rockies on the road……..especially when they trend downward like Story’s .344 into a current .275 woba.  Correa, for those interested is down from .381 to .317….also poor.

Outfielders

Michael Brantley – What goes up must come down, and Brantley is on the gravitational trajectory towards Earth again.  $4000 and $5200 is just too much to pay for what has become a .323 woba over the past 7 days.  For that pricing, we simply need more.  I could take a chance on a Steve Wilkerson at only $2700 and save the money because they are hitting largely the same woba over 7 days.  But, I’d rather just take a guy hitting the ball well instead.

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Have a +EV day, and I hope to see you soon!