Welp -here we go. Things are about to get crazy. Lets see if we can make sense of it all and win some cash! Look – it’s really hard to predict plate tracks. All we can do is talk strategy, and how different drivers fit into that. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
A couple of notes that I always like to note on restrictior plate tracks:
Most importantly, the restrictor plates. On track, the cars have about the same horsepower – meaning they will be nose to tail all day. This means drivers who usually aren’t relevant get made relevant, and if there is a crash – it’s going to end the day of 3-15 drivers in an instant.
It’s very seldom that the optimal lineup maxes that salary cap. Whacky lineups galore.
I think the most important thing this week will be playing at least five differential plays. Drivers in the back have the benefit of more fast laps, since the cars infront of them are cutting the air for them.
Now regardless of what strategy you play this week – plate tracks have a DNF rate of around 20%. Meaning every driver in the field this Sunday will have a one in five chance of not completing all the laps. This makes just about any strategy volatile. With that in mind, understanding the correct optimal place differential strategy certainly gives us an edge.
Rather than give you top plays, fades, and values, I am going to give you my thoughts on each driver starting 20th or worse, and allow you to create a strategy with that in mind. Bolded drivers are drivers I consider top plays. Keep in mind that other drivers starting better than 20th aren’t unplayable, especially this year.
20. MARTIN TRUEX JR. – Truex isn’t really a driver I covet at Talledega, since 2017 he has an average finish of 26.75, with not so much as a top 20 to his name. The Toyotas didn’t show much in practice. I think there is better options.
21. JIMMIE JOHNSON – JJ is one the better Dega drivers in the field, so I think there is some upside here. However, give the chaotic nature this race seems to be foreshadowing, I would be more comfortable playing drivers further back than this.
22. KYLE BUSCH – For KB to end up in the optimal, he will likely need to stay out of trouble and finish in the top five – a feet he hasnt pulled off a Dega since 2008. I am okay avoiding KB for THIS WEEK ONLY.
23. DENNY HAMLIN – There is a myth in racing that restricor plate racing is all luck. Denny Hamlin is living proof that that is not the case. Hamlin one of the best when it comes to the big tracks and has a tremendous ability to stay out of trouble. He should compete for a win here. It is no means a safe play, but it is the safest in the range.
24. RYAN NEWMAN – You can probably squeeze Newman in a couple lineups, but he isnt someone I would be targeting. He usually makes a point to stay at the back of the pack to avoid trouble at restrictor plates, and if that strategy plays off he could be valuable. My biggest concern is his ability to come through the field if this race isnt as chaotic as advertised.
25. WILLIAM BYRON – I actually don’t really mind Byron here. The Chevs are a step behind the Fords for sure, but the HENDRICK Chevs are close. Byron has showed an increased ability at restricor plates over his last couple tries. I think this a somewhat of a risky play – but everyone else is a little riskier.
26. MATT DIBENEDETTO – I am sure Matty D will be a popular pick this week, but I am not sold. Now – he IS in better equipment than he has ever had, but that mean less here then anywhere else. Don’t love this play.
27. ERIK JONES – This is my favorite pick of the week, and I am sure it will be most other writers as well. Erik Jones has been dynamite at Tallegeda in his career. He is volatile – but even that part of his game is improving. I love this pick.
28. BUBBA WALLACE – Bubba has only finished outside the top 20 once at a place race in his entire Cup career. Granted, that one was the 2019 Daytona 500. However, I am hopeful they have worked out the kinks and think Bubba provides tremendous value this week.
NOTE: Turns out GAUGHN is running this car, not Reddick. He will start from the rear, but this is still a good play.
29. TYLER REDDICK – Reddick put on a hell of a show in the xFinity race today, and looks too parlay that into a good Cup performance tomorrow. He is running the 62 car that Brendan Gaughn has had many a good plate race run in. Reddicks last Cup race was the Daytona 500, where he struggled, including some pretty glaring drivers mistakes. That was his first cup race ever, and I think it was a tremendous learning experience for him. This is by no means one of my favorite plays, but I think Reddick represents pretty good value if you believe he can avoid beating himself (I think he can!)
30. RYAN PREECE – I have said this many times this year, but “rookie” Ryan Preece is no rookie. He is a motorsports veteran and he proved that in Daytona earlier this year, where he finished 8th. I expect a similar performance out of Preece this weekend, who has shown flashed of brilliance at points this season.
31. CHRIS BUESCHER – Buescher has yet to have that “breakout” Dega performance, but he consistently runs inside the top 20 and flirts with the top 10. I would argue that 2019 has been the best year of his career thus far and he is poised to breakout at Dega. I have high hopes for a Buescher top ten this weekend.
32. LANDON CASSILL – Cassill will take the track in the 00 Star-Com racing car this weekend, which believe it or not has been pretty decent at Dega. I trust Cassill, and I trust the car. My only gripe is 32nd is a little high for a car that has like a 20th place ceiling. Worth sprinkling in, though.
33. JEFFREY EARNHARDT – Earnhardt will pilot the #81 XCI racing car in its maiden Cup voyage this weekend. XCI has a technical alliance, so there is some intrigue here. However, I can’t in good conscious recommend placing money on a team that is making its first start. Do your own research here.
34. ROSS CHASTAIN – Chastain ran this machine to a top 10 at Daytona and looked damned good doing it. He is a bit of an internet darling, and his ownership will probably be high, but I am happy to ride the wave. This is a good play.
35. PARKER KLIGERMAN – Speaking of great plays – Kligerman will pilot the #96 Gaunt Brother Racing machine that almost ALWAYS impressed on plate tracks. I think this is a really solid play.
36. COREY LAJOIE – Lajoie makes his second plate start in this #32 car after a 18th place finish at Daytona. While Lajoie has had some decent Daytona runs in his career, this represents just his third Dega start. His other two tries gave him a 27th and a 32nd place result. He is in better equipment than ever this time, so there is some juice here. I wouldn’t go to crazy with Lajoie, but he is very playable.
37. REED SORENSON – This play scares me, this is the team that finished dead last at Daytona (though Casey Mears was driving), and a team that has rarley posted a desirable result at plate races. The nature of his starting position makes him viable, but I am not going to have much Reed.
38. JUSTIN HALEY – Justin Haley will get his turn in the #40 Spire Motorsports car that Jamie MacMurray drove to a 22nd place finish back at Daytona. Haley is not near the driver that McMurray, but we know for a fact that this car is capable of running 500 miles, and that is an asset for a car starting 38th. This is Justin’s first Cup start so there is likely going to be some growing pains, which is the only thing keeping me from making this a top play.
39. STANTON BARRETT – Rick Ware Racing. Fade.
40. CODY WARE – Rick Ware Racing. Fade.
So there it is folks, use that to start your research. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock, and thats what it will be all about this week. Strategy. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.