Every week on the PGA Tour a new course means a new set of challenges. This article will examine the course being played and give specific insight on some keys for the week that other previews may be overlooking. This article will also breakdown players who stand out on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Cash Game and GPP formats. Finally, I will be reviewing my picks from before and going into a deeper dive on my Cash Game team in an attempt to better my own process while hopefully helping you with yours. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
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Review from last week
*Review of RBC Heritage
Dustin Johnson – DK: $11600
With DJ’s ownership projecting to be right around 20% I had no issue going overweight on the stud. This was working out great until the back 9 on Sunday when DJ had an absolutely wild collapse. Johnson went 7 over in a five hole stretch and went from the lead to middle of the pack, which is not getting it done as the top salary. With DJ’s ownership ending up at 20.82% I still feel comfortable with me, play despite the result not working out as expected. In an off week where only three players above $9k outperformed the struggling DJ the Sunday collapse was not great for owners but was not entirely damaging.
$10K and Up (Francesco Molinari, Xander Schauffele, Bryson Dechambeau, Matt Kuchar)
I wrote up how Kuchar was my cash lock if you could afford, luckily I got onto him in cash formats. Because of my high ownership on DJ I found myself with little Molinari/Schaufelle (still above the 6.31 and 10.45% ownership). I was underweight on the 16% owned Dechambeau, and at ownership for Kuchar. All in all, I more or less matched the field on most of the players in this tier, so it was not necessarily a good or bad tier for me.
$9K and Up (Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Jim Furyk, Webb Simpson, Tommy Fleetwood, Kevin Kisner, Si Woo Kim)
With Fleetwood as the mega chalk I made a bit of a stand and decided to try and be a little underweight to load up elsewhere (18% compared to the 33.41% average across GPP’s). With the extra ability to spread around I ended up with extra shares in Catnlay, Spieth, Simpson and Kim. Although one of those was a dud and Spieth was more or less a wash with Fleetwood, Webb was able to outperform and Casey was one of the top scores on the week.
Jason Kokrak, Charles Howell, Ian Poulter
Within this group I wrote how all three have been playing well and carrying ownership. Personally, I ended up with a bit of all three ending up slightly overweight on Kokrak, a little overweight on CH3 and a little underweight on Poulter. With Poulter leading the way, albeit by one point over Kokrak, this range was not the best for me with Poulter performing the best and him being the one I was underweight on.
Lucas Glover, Charley Hoffman, Russell Knox
Another group of three and another group I did not do great on. This tier was disappointing for many with both Glove and Knox missing the cut with both players in the top 8 for ownership on the week.
Overall in GPP’s my problems with lower salaries limited my upside for the week as this was not one of my better weeks to say the least.
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Course Preview
In this section I will point out a few things that I find interesting about the course. If you’re a member at the Army you also have Josh’s article for more extensive reasoning on what the key stats are and our Domination Station showing what stats have been the most important historically.
- Wells Fargo takes place at Quail Hollow, a 7554 yard par 71
- The course itself is very long, but that does not necessarily mean this is just a course for bombers, with tight, tree-lined fairways you can get into a lot of trouble here and post a big number.
- If you have already read Josh’s article you’ll see him mention long irons being critical here – this is something I could not agree with more. Not only are the par threes, long but many of the par fours are right around 500 yards, meaning the second shot will be from a distance more often than not. It will definitely be a stat I take into consideration this week.
- This course is a challenge and that is apparent with the average score playing just over par here last season, with that said I think targeting guys who typically outperform the field on ‘tough’ tracks could pay dividends this week.
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Interesting Plays
In this section I will discuss plays that I like/dislike and guys that I find interesting for the week. Because this article comes out on a Monday this list can change, anyone I change my mind on will be discussed later in the week in our PGA coaching channel
Rory McIlroy – DK: $11800
Just like at RBC Heritage with DJ, Rory McIlroy is still in a world of his own within this field. A two time winner at Quail Hollow, McIlroy is coming in with great form with a T6 or better in 6 of his last 7 appearances (everywhere but The Masters). Just like with DJ, if ownership is around that 15-20% range I like the idea of going overweight on the top salary despite usually advising against it. Similarly, if ownership creeps up I have no issue going underweight and taking my chances with a bunch of studs in the $9k to $11k range.
$10K and up (Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama)
Another great group with all guys giving good reason to be in play for the week. I like Day the most upon first look, especially if Rory takes some of his ownership. I also really like Rose off of a missed cut coming to a course that sets up great for his game. I will have more thoughts on this group later on in my final notes.
$9K and up (Sergio Garcia, Webb Simpson, Paul Casey, Tony Finau, Phil Mickelson, Gary Woodland)
Another intriguing group for GPP’s as we have some guys coming in hot, some guys coming in off of missed cuts and a few names that always carry a bit of ownership. It will be really interesting to see who is gravitated towards as the week goes on. Webb is a personal favourite for me after two good weeks and a great approach game, I also like Finau a lot upon first look but as mentioned it will largely come down to how I anticipate ownership playing out.
Mid $8K – Jason Kokark, Sungjae Im, Lucas Glover, Charles Howell, Byeong Hun An
This price range is interesting to me as it’s a mix of guys that have been popular throughout the year and aside from Kokrak they are all coming into the event off of a missed cut. I know ownership is typically lower after a missed cut, but it’s hard for the majority of players to write off an entire range of salaries. I typically like going right back to a guy after a missed cut after the suppressed ownership and could see myself doing so this week.
Kieth Mitchell – DK: $7800
At this pricepoint I really like Keith Mitchell upon first look.
Cash Game Review
I will end each article going over my double-up cash game line-up for the week, breaking down my plays and reflecting for the following week
The Team (7.5-5.5) – Current Streak 1 Win
Back into the win column!
Matt Kuchar – 2nd
Jason Kokrak – T16
Ian Poulter – T10
Russell Knox – MC
Lucas Glover – MC
Kevin Na – T10
I had 2 missed cuts but good thing for me is most of the field had the exact same or worse. Early on in the week I decided I wanted to pay up for Kuchar for his stability and the upside he provided. In doing so, I more or less also locked in Russell Knox and Lucas Glover as well to make it all fit under $50,000. The rest of the $8K tier or Kokrak, Howell and Poulter were also super appealing – Kokrak was my first pick and locked in and then I played around with a few different combos between with An/RCB as another option I was considering. Luckily for me I ended up on the option with both players coming top ten which was good enough to end my 2 contest losing streak. This was another week where I also considered up to three different lineups – another with the An/RCB and/or Zach Johnson combo and a third more traditional balanced lineup without Kuchar or Na. Sometimes you have to be lucky in DFS and I stuck with the one lineup that actually won on the week.
Other DFS Army PGA Golf Tools and Articles
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