Every week on the PGA Tour a new course means a new set of challenges. This article will examine the course being played and give specific insight on some keys for the week that other previews may be overlooking. This article will also breakdown players who stand out on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Cash Game and GPP formats. Finally, I will be reviewing my picks from before and going into a deeper dive on my Cash Game team in an attempt to better my own process while hopefully helping you with yours. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
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Review from last week
In this section I will break down the players I wrote up from the prior week, how they did and how I played them in my line-ups. This is a review of the Valspar Championship, while I made a few line-ups and had notes for the WGC Match play I did not have a write-up or a cash game team.
The Big three (DJ, Rahm, Day)
Rahm was my favourite play of the three and my most heavily owned (35%). As the week went on it became apparent that DJ would be the chalk of the week (he ended at 31.89% ownership) I also ended up with a fair share of him (15%). Luckily for me, I was underweight on Day and his missed cut having him in just 7% of lineups. Overall, this tier worked out really well for me, I was under the field on the stud who missed the cut while overweight on Rahm who tied DJ’s fantasy scoring while saving owners $500 in salary.
The Next Tier (Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia, Gary Woodland, Paul Casey, Patrick Reed)
While I had plenty of Rahm I also had a lot of teams that started in this salary range. I ended up overweight on Webb and Casey, right around field average on Sergio and underweight on Woodland and Reed. Overall, this group was a great success for me, although I was overweight on Webb and his missed cut I was basically able to avoid Woodland and Reed’s missed cuts in gpp’s, plus, it’s always nice to be overweight on the winner (19% to 11.63% field average).
Jim Furyk – DK: $9200
I wrote up Furyk as a guy who would potentially slip through the cracks because of the price. Was he overpriced? Absolutely, is getting a guy coming off of a top ten and a second at low ownership worth it? Absolutely. Furyk finished T18 with 10% ownership, this isn’t spectacular but did outperform most of his range.
Rafa Cabrera Bello – DK: $8800
As I wrote I did not want to write of RCB after one missed cut and I thought his missed cut while being one of the chalky plays the week prior with a price increase could lead to low ownership. RCB ended up right around 10% ownership with a T30 finish.
Russell Knox – DK: $8100
Knox has been ridiculously consistent and it showed in ownership. Knox averaged 20.94%, but was much higher with the sharks in the big $ contest with nearly 32% ownership in the $2120 GPP. Knox made a rare albatross which bolstered his fantasy performance to 14th best in the field, even though he finished 24th.
Sungjae Im – DK: $7700
I loved Sungjae and luckily ended up on him in both formats. As I mentioned, his missed cut wasn’t necessarily a poor performance, rather a compounding of unnecessary errors. Im fixed that this week with on his way to a top five finish.
Overall, Valspar was a very good week for me in both cash and GPP as many of my core plays finished within the top thirty.
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Course Preview
In this section I will point out a few things that I find interesting about the course. If you’re a member at the Army you also have Josh’s article for more extensive reasoning on what the key stats are and our Domination Station showing what stats have been the most important historically.
- Par 72 with four par fives but only one is extremely favourable in terms of par fives as two of the four are over 600 yards and another at 592 yards that played over par last year.
- Two par fours under 350 yards make up for this and give players a few more holes they should be scoring on.
- With quite a few tiered greens SG Approach becomes that much more important to give yourself birdie opportunities.
- Really tough to predict the weather, but it can get windy and this is an event where if weather is looking extreme I don’t mind trying to load up on the favourable draw if one exists.
- We have a really weak filed with only really Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar, Tony Finau and if you still want to include him Jordan Spieth making the appearance out of the tours top players.
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Interesting Plays
In this section I will discuss plays that I like/dislike and guys that I find interesting for the week. Because this article comes out on a Monday this list can change, anyone I change my mind on will be discussed later in the week in our PGA coaching channel
$10K and up (Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar, Tony Finau, Jordan Spieth, Sunjae Im)
This group starts with Folwer as the class of the field priced the highest at $11,700. Folwer took last week off and comes into this tournament with iffy form – although he has made every cut this season after his win in January fowler has a T2 and three tournaments where he has failed to come inside of the top 35. With the price tag you need a top five out of Rickie. Kuchar looked great last week in match play finishing 2nd, outside of that Kuchar is not showing the greatest form either with no finish inside of the top 20 since January. Finau has had similar struggles with no finish inside of the top 15 since January. Spieths struggles have been well documented as he has failed to come inside of the top 30 dating back to November. Finally, Im has been on fire with top tens in three of his last four appearances, although last week at the Corales Championship wasn’t necessarily the best field. Ultimately, I am not advising on playing Im and fading everyone else, but I do think we will likely see people off of Im because of the price increase when he has been the best player in the field as of late. I will have shares of Im for this reason, I also do like Finau’s game for this course. The rest will be written up in my Wednesday notes.
$9K (Billy Horschel, Jim Furyk, Jason Kokrak, Lucas Glover, Byeong Hun An, Ryan Moore, Lucas Bjerregaard)
With the noted struggles of the players up top I could see many jumping to this range and starting teams with two of these guys. Kokrak jumps out as a likely chalky play as his 11/11 made cuts stand out and finishing top ten in three of his lat four events isn’t too shabby either. Glover and Furyk have also put up some solid performances as of late that will likely garner ownership. Bjerregaard should get a bit of a bump too after taking down tiger. Personally, the first two that stood out to me were Jason Kokrak and Byeong Hun An, both will be in my player pool for the week but I’ll get into that more in my final notes.
Denny McCarthy – DK: $8100
Three straight made cuts and a top ten in that stretch. McCarhy had been getting it done with the putter but has been trending upwards off of the tee.
Joel Dahman – DK: $7500
Dahman has looked good lately gaining strokes in all major categories aside from putting. Within this range I could see Dahman carrying a bit of ownership, but I do think he is a solid price for an event lacking starpower.
Trey Mullinax – DK: $7400
Starting to trend a little in the wrong direction, but he has been gaining strokes in off of the tee and approaching the green.
Cash Game Review
I will end each article going over my cash game line-up for the week, breaking down my plays and reflecting for the following week
The Team (6.5-3.5) – Back in the win column
The Team
Jim Furyk – T18
Jason Kokrak – T2
Sungjae Im – T4
Russell Knox – T24
Kevin Ksiner – T24
Zach Johnson – T24
My roster was always safely in the cash with all 6 players having great performances and both Kokrak and Im taking a run at the win. This team was formed around Jason Kokrak, Russell Knox and Kevin Kisner – all three were locks for me as the week went on. I then had the decision between paying up for Jim Furyk or Patrick Reed and ultimately chose Furyk as it allowed me to roster two more players I was comfortable with – Sungjae Im and Zach Johnson. I don’t have much else to add, ultimately it was a stress free weekend in cash as the team was almost always safely in the money.
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