Monday night on Yahoo I took down the main $20 tournament for over 4K! I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.
Daily Umpire Impact
Yesterday we focused on K/9 to start. We were able to identify how Bumgarner was going to be squeezed and sure enough by the 3rd inning he was having words with Alfonso Marquez before Bellinger got the best of him crushing a Grand Slam. We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. Today we’ll take one more step in the breakdowns looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed yesterday you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”
K/9
Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.
Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. The best way to identify these umps is by looking at their K/9. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.
“Hit Mitts”
There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.
“Box Callers”
On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing. For today, we will stick with K/9 and identify some good spots and plays. We have the umpires for every game right now except STL/PIT.
The Squeeze
(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly)
(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)
SF/LA Holland/Stripling
Dan Bellino 17.09 K/9 6.5 BB/9 .250 AVG 8.2 R/9
Bellino has a wide zone on both edges and he favors the left side of the plate. With Holland throwing a majority of sinkers the only real benefit for him is the slider on the left side of the dish to righties. That’s a dangerous spot to try and beat this Dodger’s team, so Holland does not get an upgrade tonight. Stripling, however, should see some benefit from throwing his changeup away to lefties and in on righties. It’s a decent matchup, and if you were high on Stripling, I would stay there.
BOS/OAK Eovaldi/Estrada
Tripp Gibson 17.44 K/9 6.32 BB/9 .250 AVG 9.23 R/9
Tripp really favors the low strike. Eovaldi who typically works up in the zone with his velocity and his cutter, may not get a huge benefit tonight. However, in his first outing he was throwing his Splitter even more than his cutter (over 20% of the time, almost double of last year’s %), so if he continues this trend tonight that would be a great matchup for it. Still, Tripp won’t miss any calls for him and a guy that throws that many strikes isn’t going to be hurt from having an ump with a low zone. Overall, we should see a slight benefit and no downgrade. On the other hand, Tripp is a good umpire for Estrada’s changeup, but you would have to already be brave enough to play him against the Sox, and I will not endorse him in this matchup based on umpire alone.
HOU/TEX Cole/Minor
Ron Kulpa 17.01 K/9 6.1 BB/9 .259 AVG 9.63 R/9
Here we have an excellent matchup for Cole. Ron Kulpa is a guy who is generous on the edges. Like most power arms Cole works up with the four seamer and low and away with the slider. Cole doesn’t need to get the high strike on his swing and miss upper-echelon heaters. He will always benefit most from getting those calls off the edges. Kulpa does favor the right side of the plate slightly, but the number of lefties in the Ranger’s lineup should actually play to Cole’s advantage with his reverse splits. This is a noticeable upgrade and Cole is worth paying up for in any build that you can fit him in tonight. For Minor, with Brantley likely being the only lefty he faces, I don’t see much benefit in the matchup, but he could get by with limited damage if he establishes the outside corner early. There is still a lot of risks for Minor.
CHC/ATL Lester/Teheran
Marvin Hudson 16.24 K/9 7 BB/9 .252 AVG 8.81 R/9
Hudson has a tight zone up and down, and he favors the right side of the plate. With Lester not throwing many cutters away to righties he could end up being hurt tonight. Teheran should also be a victim of the squeeze. The only way he could avoid it is a steady diet of sliders on the right side of the plate. I’d give both of these arms a downgrade tonight and given the matchups I can’t endorse playing them.
Breakdown
Cruisin’ Cole
With the number of lefties the Rangers are running out plus mild temps, swirling winds, and a nice umpire pairing Cole is the most dangerous arm to fade on the slate. In order to fit him in your lineups, you can utilize the value in the Cubs/Braves game with guys like Zobrist and Descalso or Camargo and Swanson. If you don’t want to pay up for Cole, consider stacking the young Braves Albies and Acuna with Donaldson or Freeman. The power on the other side with Baez/Rizzo/Bryant/Schwarber is also intriguing and I will be over the field on both stacks.
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